Fractional principal components regression: a general approach to biased estimators

Several biased estimators have been proposed as alternatives to the least squares estimator when multicollinearity is present in the multiple linear regression model. The ridge estimator and the principal components estimator are two techniques that have been proposed for such problems. In this paper the class of fractional principal component estimators is developed for the multiple linear regression model. This class contains many of the biased estimators commonly used to combat multicollinearity. In the fractional principal components framework, two new estimation techniques are introduced. The theoretical performances of the new estimators are evaluated and their small sample properties are compared via simulation with the ridge, generalized ridge and principal components estimators     

THE EXAMINATION AND ANALYSIS OF RESIDUALS FOR SOME BIASED ESTIMATORS IN LINEAR REGRESSION

In the presence of collinearity certain biased estimation procedures like ridge regression, generalized inverse estimator, principal component regression, Liu estimator, or improved ridge and Liu estimators are used to improve the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates in the linear regression model. In this paper new biased estimator (Liu estimator), almost unbiased (improved) Liu estimator and their residuals will be analyzed and compared with OLS residuals in terms of mean-squared error.     

Robust ridge and robust Liu estimator for regression based on the LTS estimator

In the multiple linear regression analysis, the ridge regression estimator and the Liu estimator are often used to address multicollinearity. Besides multicollinearity, outliers are also a problem in the multiple linear regression analysis. We propose new biased estimators based on the least trimmed squares (LTS) ridge estimator and the LTS Liu estimator in the case of the presence of both outliers and multicollinearity. For this purpose, a simulation study is conducted in order to see the difference between the robust ridge estimator and the robust Liu estimator in terms of their effectiveness; the mean square error. In our simulations, the behavior of the new biased estimators is examined for types of outliers: X-space outlier, Y-space outlier, and X-and Y-space outlier. The results for a number of different illustrative cases are presented. This paper also provides the results for the robust ridge regression and robust Liu estimators based on a real-life data set combining the problem of multicollinearity and outliers.     

Combining the unrestricted estimators into a single estimator and a simulation study on the unrestricted estimators

The purpose of this paper is to combine several regression estimators (ordinary least squares (OLS), ridge, contraction, principal components regression (PCR), Liu, r?k and r?d class estimators) into a single estimator. The conditions for the superiority of this new estimator over the PCR, the r?k class, the r?d class, β?(k, d), OLS, ridge, Liu and contraction estimators are derived by the scalar mean square error criterion and the estimators of the biasing parameters for this new estimator are examined. Also, a numerical example based on Hald data and a simulation study are used to illustrate the results.     

Ratio and product estimators in stratified random sampling

Khoshnevisan et al. [2007. A general family of estimators for estimating population mean using known value of some population parameter(s). Far East Journal of Theoretical Statistics 22, 181–191] have introduced a family of estimators using auxiliary information in simple random sampling. They have showed that these estimators are more efficient than the classical ratio estimator and that the minimum value of the mean square error (MSE) of this family is equal to the value of MSE of regression estimator. In this article, we adapt the estimators in this family to the stratified random sampling and motivated by the estimator in Searls [1964. Utilization of known coefficient of kurtosis in the estimation procedure of variance. Journal of the American Statistical Association 59, 1225–1226], we also propose a new family of estimators for the stratified random sampling. The expressions of bias and MSE of the adapted and proposed families are derived in a general form. Besides, considering the minimum cases of these MSE equations, the efficient conditions between the adapted and proposed families are obtained. Moreover, these theoretical findings are supported by a numerical example with original data.     

Rare and clustered population estimation using the adaptive cluster sampling with some robust measures

The use of robust measures helps to increase the precision of the estimators, especially for the estimation of extremely skewed distributions. In this article, a generalized ratio estimator is proposed by using some robust measures with single auxiliary variable under the adaptive cluster sampling (ACS) design. We have incorporated tri-mean (TM), mid-range (MR) and Hodges-Lehman (HL) of the auxiliary variable as robust measures together with some conventional measures. The expressions of bias and mean square error (MSE) of the proposed generalized ratio estimator are derived. Two types of numerical study have been conducted using artificial clustered population and real data application to examine the performance of the proposed estimator over the usual mean per unit estimator under simple random sampling (SRS). Related results of the simulation study show that the proposed estimators provide better estimation results on both real and artificial population over the competing estimators.     

On the restricted r–k class estimator and the restricted r–d class estimator in linear regression

In this article, the restricted r–k class estimator and restricted r–d class estimator are introduced, which are general estimators of the r–k class estimator by Baye and Parker [Combining ridge and principal component regression: A money demand illustration, Commun. Stat. Theory Methods 13(2) (1984), pp. 197–205] and the r–d class estimator by Kaç?ranlar and Sakall?o?lu [Combining the Liu estimator and the principal component regression estimator, Commun. Stat. Theory Methods 30(12) (2001), pp. 2699–2705], respectively. For the two cases when the restrictions are true and not true, the superiority of the restricted r–k class estimator and r–d class estimator over the restricted ridge regression estimator by Sarkar [A new estimator combining the ridge regression and the restricted least squares methods of estimation, Commun. Stat. Theory Methods 21 (1992), pp. 1987–2000] and the restricted Liu estimator by Kaç?ranlar et al. [A new biased estimator in linear regression and a detailed analysis of the widely analysed dataset on Portland cement, Sankhya - Indian J. Stat. 61B(3) (1999), pp. 443–459] are discussed with respect to the mean squared error matrix criterion. Furthermore, a Monte Carlo evaluation of the estimators is given to illustrate some of the theoretical results.     

Comparisons of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">r</Emphasis> − <Emphasis Type="Italic">k</Emphasis> class estimator to the ordinary least squares estimator under the Pitman’s closeness criterion

In the presence of multicollinearity, the r − k class estimator is proposed as an alternative to the ordinary least squares (OLS) estimator which is a general estimator including the ordinary ridge regression (ORR), the principal components regression (PCR) and the OLS estimators. Comparison of competing estimators of a parameter in the sense of mean square error (MSE) criterion is of central interest. An alternative criterion to the MSE criterion is the Pitman’s (1937) closeness (PC) criterion. In this paper, we compare the r − k class estimator to the OLS estimator in terms of PC criterion so that we can get the comparison of the ORR estimator to the OLS estimator under the PC criterion which was done by Mason et al. (1990) and also the comparison of the PCR estimator to the OLS estimator by means of the PC criterion which was done by Lin and Wei (2002).     

Generalized preliminary test stochastic restricted estimator in the linear regression model

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we propose three generalized estimators, namely, generalized unrestricted estimator (GURE), generalized stochastic restricted estimator (GSRE), and generalized preliminary test stochastic restricted estimator (GPTSRE). The GURE can be used to represent the ridge estimator, almost unbiased ridge estimator (AURE), Liu estimator, and almost unbiased Liu estimator. When stochastic restrictions are available in addition to the sample information, the GSRE can be used to represent stochastic mixed ridge estimator, stochastic restricted Liu estimator, stochastic restricted almost unbiased ridge estimator, and stochastic restricted almost unbiased Liu estimator. The GPTSRE can be used to represent the preliminary test estimators based on mixed estimator. Using the GPTSRE, the properties of three other preliminary test estimators, namely preliminary test stochastic mixed ridge estimator, preliminary test stochastic restricted almost unbiased Liu estimator, and preliminary test stochastic restricted almost unbiased ridge estimator can also be discussed. The mean square error matrix criterion is used to obtain the superiority conditions to compare the estimators based on GPTSRE with some biased estimators for the two cases for which the stochastic restrictions are correct, and are not correct. Finally, a numerical example and a Monte Carlo simulation study are done to illustrate the theoretical findings of the proposed estimators.     

A Class of s–K Type Principal Components Estimators in the Linear Model

In this article, we introduce a new class of estimators called the s–K type principal components estimators to combat multicollinearity, which include the principal components regression (PCR) estimator, the r–k estimator and the s–K estimator as special cases. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the superiority of the new estimator over the PCR estimator, the r–k estimator and the s–K estimator are derived in the sense of the mean squared error matrix criterion. A Monte Carlo simulation study and a numerical example are given to illustrate the performance of the proposed estimator.     

Estimation of the variance when kurtosis is known

The unbiased estimator of a population variance σ², S ² has traditionally been overemphasized, regardless of sample size. In this paper, alternative estimators of population variance are developed. These estimators are biased and have the minimum possible mean-squared error [and we define them as the “minimum mean-squared error biased estimators” (MBBE)]. The comparative merit of these estimators over the unbiased estimator is explored using relative efficiency (RE) (a ratio of mean-squared error values). It is found that, across all population distributions investigated, the RE of the MBBE is much higher for small samples and progressively diminishes to 1 with increasing sample size. The paper gives two applications involving the normal and exponential distributions.     

Superiority of the r–k Class Estimator Over Some Estimators In A Linear Model

In regression analysis, to overcome the problem of multicollinearity, the r ? k class estimator is proposed as an alternative to the ordinary least squares estimator which is a general estimator including the ordinary ridge regression estimator, the principal components regression estimator and the ordinary least squares estimator. In this article, we derive the necessary and sufficient conditions for the superiority of the r ? k class estimator over each of these estimators under the Mahalanobis loss function by the average loss criterion. Then, we compare these estimators with each other using the same criterion. Also, we suggest to test to verify if these conditions are indeed satisfied. Finally, a numerical example and a Monte Carlo simulation are done to illustrate the theoretical results.     

Small-area estimation by combining time-series and cross-sectional data

A model involving autocorrelated random effects and sampling errors is proposed for small-area estimation, using both time-series and cross-sectional data. The sampling errors are assumed to have a known block-diagonal covariance matrix. This model is an extension of a well-known model, due to Fay and Herriot (1979), for cross-sectional data. A two-stage estimator of a small-area mean for the current period is obtained under the proposed model with known autocorrelation, by first deriving the best linear unbiased prediction estimator assuming known variance components, and then replacing them with their consistent estimators. Extending the approach of Prasad and Rao (1986, 1990) for the Fay-Herriot model, an estimator of mean squared error (MSE) of the two-stage estimator, correct to a second-order approximation for a small or moderate number of time points, T, and a large number of small areas, m, is obtained. The case of unknown autocorrelation is also considered. Limited simulation results on the efficiency of two-stage estimators and the accuracy of the proposed estimator of MSE are présentés.     

A new modified Jackknifed estimator for the Poisson regression model

The Poisson regression is very popular in applied researches when analyzing the count data. However, multicollinearity problem arises for the Poisson regression model when the independent variables are highly intercorrelated. Shrinkage estimator is a commonly applied solution to the general problem caused by multicollinearity. Recently, the ridge regression (RR) estimators and some methods for estimating the ridge parameter k in the Poisson regression have been proposed. It has been found that some estimators are better than the commonly used maximum-likelihood (ML) estimator and some other RR estimators. In this study, the modified Jackknifed Poisson ridge regression (MJPR) estimator is proposed to remedy the multicollinearity. A simulation study and a real data example are provided to evaluate the performance of estimators. Both mean-squared error and the percentage relative error are considered as the performance criteria. The simulation study and the real data example results show that the proposed MJPR method outperforms the Poisson ridge regression, Jackknifed Poisson ridge regression and the ML in all of the different situations evaluated in this paper.     

Some finite sample properties of generalized ridge regression estimators

In this paper we study the mean square error properties of the generalized ridge estimator. We obtain the exact and the approximate bias and the mean square error of the operational generalized ridge estimator in terms of G( ) functions. We show, among other things, that the operational generalized ridge estimator does not dominate the ordinary least squares estimator up to a certain order of approximation. Finally, we note that the iterative procedures to obtain coverging ridge estimators should be used with caution.     

Ridge regression from principal component point of view

Ridge regression is often discussed as an estimation procedure for producing estimators which are biased but with a smaller mean squared error than the usual least square estimators. In this paper we show that this procedure can also be used to reflect the nature of dependency among a set of highly collinear regressor variables. In particular, we prove that, when data are severely multicollinear, the ridge estimators can be made very close to the principal component estimators. Examples are given to illustrate the point.     

Mean squared error estimators of small area means using survey weights

Using survey weights, You & Rao [You and Rao, The Canadian Journal of Statistics 2002; 30, 431–439] proposed a pseudo‐empirical best linear unbiased prediction (pseudo‐EBLUP) estimator of a small area mean under a nested error linear regression model. This estimator borrows strength across areas through a linking model, and makes use of survey weights to ensure design consistency and preserve benchmarking property in the sense that the estimators add up to a reliable direct estimator of the mean of a large area covering the small areas. In this article, a second‐order approximation to the mean squared error (MSE) of the pseudo‐EBLUP estimator of a small area mean is derived. Using this approximation, an estimator of MSE that is nearly unbiased is derived; the MSE estimator of You & Rao [You and Rao, The Canadian Journal of Statistics 2002; 30, 431–439] ignored cross‐product terms in the MSE and hence it is biased. Empirical results on the performance of the proposed MSE estimator are also presented. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 38: 598–608; 2010 © 2010 Statistical Society of Canada     

Improved Empirical Bayes Estimation in Group Testing Procedure for Small Proportions

Group testing has been long recognized as an efficient method to classify all the experimental units into two mutually exclusive categories: defective or not defective. In recent years, more attention has been brought to the estimation of the population prevalence rate p of a disease, or of some property, using group testing. In this article, we propose two scaled squared-error loss functions, which improve the Bayesian approach to estimating p in terms of minimizing the mean squared error (MSE) of the Bayes estimators of p for small p. We show that the new estimators are preferred over the estimator from the usual squared-error loss function and the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for small p.     

Developing Ridge Parameters for SUR Model

This paper proposes a number of procedures for developing new biased estimators of the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) parameters, when the explanatory variables are affected by multicollinearity. Several ridge parameters are proposed and then compared in terms of the trace mean squared error (TMSE) and (PR) criteria. The PR criterion is the proportion of replication (out of 1,000) for which the SUR version of the generalized least squares (SGLS) estimator has a smaller TMSE than others. The study was performed using Monte Carlo simulations where the number of equations in the system, the number of observations, the correlation among equations, and the correlation between explanatory variables have been varied. For each model, we performed 1,000 replications. Our results show that under certain conditions some of the proposed SUR ridge parameters, (R _Sgeom , R _Skmed , R _Sqarith , and R _Sqmax ), performed well when compared, in terms of TMSE and PR criteria, with other proposed and popular existing ridge parameters. In large samples and when the collinearity between the explanatory variables is not high, the unbiased SUR estimator (SGLS), performed better than the other ridge parameters.     

A new linearized ridge Poisson estimator in the presence of multicollinearity

Poisson regression is a very commonly used technique for modeling the count data in applied sciences, in which the model parameters are usually estimated by the maximum likelihood method. However, the presence of multicollinearity inflates the variance of maximum likelihood (ML) estimator and the estimated parameters give unstable results. In this article, a new linearized ridge Poisson estimator is introduced to deal with the problem of multicollinearity. Based on the asymptotic properties of ML estimator, the bias, covariance and mean squared error of the proposed estimator are obtained and the optimal choice of shrinkage parameter is derived. The performance of the existing estimators and proposed estimator is evaluated through Monte Carlo simulations and two real data applications. The results clearly reveal that the proposed estimator outperforms the existing estimators in the mean squared error sense.KEYWORDS: Poisson regression, multicollinearity, ridge Poisson estimator, linearized ridge regression estimator, mean squared errorMathematics Subject Classifications: 62J07, 62F10