Optimal Bootstrap Sample Size in Construction of Percentile Confidence Bounds

In traditional bootstrap applications the size of a bootstrap sample equals the parent sample size, n say. Recent studies have shown that using a bootstrap sample size different from n may sometimes provide a more satisfactory solution. In this paper we apply the latter approach to correct for coverage error in construction of bootstrap confidence bounds. We show that the coverage error of a bootstrap percentile method confidence bound, which is of order O ( n ^−2/2) typically, can be reduced to O ( n ⁻¹) by use of an optimal bootstrap sample size. A simulation study is conducted to illustrate our findings, which also suggest that the new method yields intervals of shorter length and greater stability compared to competitors of similar coverage accuracy.     

New bootstrap confidence intervals for means of positively skewed distributions

ABSTRACT

In this paper, we consider the problem of constructing non parametric confidence intervals for the mean of a positively skewed distribution. We suggest calibrated, smoothed bootstrap upper and lower percentile confidence intervals. For the theoretical properties, we show that the proposed one-sided confidence intervals have coverage probability α + O(n^{? 3/2}). This is an improvement upon the traditional bootstrap confidence intervals in terms of coverage probability. A version smoothed approach is also considered for constructing a two-sided confidence interval and its theoretical properties are also studied. A simulation study is performed to illustrate the performance of our confidence interval methods. We then apply the methods to a real data set.     

Small sample performance of jackknife confidence intervals for the james-stein estimator

The primary goal of this paper is to examine the small sample coverage probability and size of jackknife confidence intervals centered at a Stein-rule estimator. A Monte Carlo experiment is used to explore the coverage probabilities and lengths of nominal 90% and 95% delete-one and infinitesimal jackknife confidence intervals centered at the Stein-rule estimator; these are compared to those obtained using a bootstrap procedure.     

Bootstrap confidence intervals in mixtures of discrete distributions

The problem of building bootstrap confidence intervals for small probabilities with count data is addressed. The law of the independent observations is assumed to be a mixture of a given family of power series distributions. The mixing distribution is estimated by nonparametric maximum likelihood and the corresponding mixture is used for resampling. We build percentile-t and Efron percentile bootstrap confidence intervals for the probabilities and we prove their consistency in probability. The new theoretical results are supported by simulation experiments for Poisson and geometric mixtures. We compare percentile-t and Efron percentile bootstrap intervals with eight other bootstrap or asymptotic theory based intervals. It appears that Efron percentile bootstrap intervals outperform the competitors in terms of coverage probability and length.     

Bootstrap confidence intervals for the coefficient of quartile variation

ABSTRACT

In non-normal populations, it is more convenient to use the coefficient of quartile variation rather than the coefficient of variation. This study compares the percentile and t-bootstrap confidence intervals with Bonett's confidence interval for the quartile variation. We show that empirical coverage of the bootstrap confidence intervals is closer to the nominal coverage (0.95) for small sample sizes (n = 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 and 15) for most distributions studied. Bootstrap confidence intervals also have smaller average width. Thus, we propose using bootstrap confidence intervals for the coefficient of quartile variation when the sample size is small.     

Bootstrap confidence intervals of generalized process capability index Cpyk for Lindley and power Lindley distributions

One of the indicators for evaluating the capability of a process is the process capability index. In this article, bootstrap confidence intervals of the generalized process capability index (GPCI) proposed by Maiti et al. are studied through simulation, when the underlying distributions are Lindley and Power Lindley distributions. The maximum likelihood method is used to estimate the parameters of the models. Three bootstrap confidence intervals namely, standard bootstrap (SB), percentile bootstrap (PB), and bias-corrected percentile bootstrap (BCPB) are considered for obtaining confidence intervals of GPCI. A Monte Carlo simulation has been used to investigate the estimated coverage probabilities and average width of the bootstrap confidence intervals. Simulation results show that the estimated coverage probabilities of the percentile bootstrap confidence interval and the bias-corrected percentile bootstrap confidence interval get closer to the nominal confidence level than those of the standard bootstrap confidence interval. Finally, three real datasets are analyzed for illustrative purposes.     

On the bootstrap in cube root asymptotics

The authors study the application of the bootstrap to a class of estimators which converge at a nonstandard rate to a nonstandard distribution. They provide a theoretical framework to study its asymptotic behaviour. A simulation study shows that in the case of an estimator such as Chernoff's estimator of the mode, usually the basic bootstrap confidence intervals drastically undercover while the percentile bootstrap intervals overcover. This is a rare instance where basic and percentile confidence intervals, which have exactly the same length, behave in a very different way. In the case of Chernoff's estimator, if the distribution is symmetric, it is possible to bootstrap from a smooth symmetric estimator of the distribution for which the basic bootstrap confidence intervals will have the claimed coverage probability while the percentile bootstrap interval will have an asymptotic coverage of 1!     

Bootstrap confidence intervals for smoothing splines and their comparison to bayesian confidence intervals

We construct bootstrap confidence intervals for smoothing spline estimates based on Gaussian data, and penalized likelihood smoothing spline estimates based on data from .exponential families. Several vari- ations of bootstrap confidence intervals are considered and compared. We find that the commonly used ootstrap percentile intervals are inferior to the T intervals and to intervals based on bootstrap estimation of mean squared errors. The best variations of the bootstrap confidence intervals behave similar to the well known Bayesian confidence intervals. These bootstrap confidence intervals have an average coverage probability across the function being estimated, as opposed to a pointwise property.     

Stationary bootstrapping for realized covariations of high frequency financial data

This paper studies the stationary bootstrap applicability for realized covariations of high frequency asynchronous financial data. The stationary bootstrap method, which is characterized by a block-bootstrap with random block length, is applied to estimate the integrated covariations. The bootstrap realized covariance, bootstrap realized regression coefficient and bootstrap realized correlation coefficient are proposed, and the validity of the stationary bootstrapping for them is established both for large sample and for finite sample. Consistencies of bootstrap distributions are established, which provide us valid stationary bootstrap confidence intervals. The bootstrap confidence intervals do not require a consistent estimator of a nuisance parameter arising from nonsynchronous unequally spaced sampling while those based on a normal asymptotic theory require a consistent estimator. A Monte-Carlo comparison reveals that the proposed stationary bootstrap confidence intervals have better coverage probabilities than those based on normal approximation.     

Kernel Smoothing to Improve Bootstrap Confidence Intervals

Some studies of the bootstrap have assessed the effect of smoothing the estimated distribution that is resampled, a process usually known as the smoothed bootstrap. Generally, the smoothed distribution for resampling is a kernel estimate and is often rescaled to retain certain characteristics of the empirical distribution. Typically the effect of such smoothing has been measured in terms of the mean-squared error of bootstrap point estimates. The reports of these previous investigations have not been encouraging about the efficacy of smoothing. In this paper the effect of resampling a kernel-smoothed distribution is evaluated through expansions for the coverage of bootstrap percentile confidence intervals. It is shown that, under the smooth function model, proper bandwidth selection can accomplish a first-order correction for the one-sided percentile method. With the objective of reducing the coverage error the appropriate bandwidth for one-sided intervals converges at a rate of n ^−1/4, rather than the familiar n ^−1/5 for kernel density estimation. Applications of this same approach to bootstrap t and two-sided intervals yield optimal bandwidths of order n ^−1/2. These bandwidths depend on moments of the smooth function model and not on derivatives of the underlying density of the data. The relationship of this smoothing method to both the accelerated bias correction and the bootstrap t methods provides some insight into the connections between three quite distinct approximate confidence intervals.     

Confidence Intervals for the Hyperparameters in Structural Models

This article deals with the bootstrap as an alternative method to construct confidence intervals for the hyperparameters of structural models. The bootstrap procedure considered is the classical nonparametric bootstrap in the residuals of the fitted model using a well-known approach. The performance of this procedure is empirically obtained through Monte Carlo simulations implemented in Ox. Asymptotic and percentile bootstrap confidence intervals for the hyperparameters are built and compared by means of the coverage percentages. The results are similar but the bootstrap procedure is better for small sample sizes. The methods are applied to a real time series and confidence intervals are built for the hyperparameters.     

Assessing and comparing the accuracy of various bootstrap methods

We evaluate the performance of various bootstrap methods for constructing confidence intervals for mean and median of several common distributions. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we assessed performance by looking at coverage percentages and average confidence interval lengths. Poor performance is characterized by coverage deviating from 0.95 and large confidence interval lengths. Undercoverage is of greater concern than overcoverage. We also assess the performance of bootstrap methods in estimating the parameters of the Cox Proportional Hazard model and Accelerated Failure Time model.     

Distribution-dependent and distribution-free confidence intervals for the variance

Finding an interval estimation procedure for the variance of a population that achieves a specified confidence level can be problematic. If the distribution of the population is known, then a distribution-dependent interval for the variance can be obtained by considering a power transformation of the sample variance. Simulation results suggest that this method produces intervals for the variance that maintain the nominal probability of coverage for a wide variety of distributions. If the underlying distribution is unknown, then the power itself must be estimated prior to forming the endpoints of the interval. The result is a distribution-free confidence interval estimator of the population variance. Simulation studies indicate that the power transformation method compares favorably to the logarithmic transformation method and the nonparametric bias-corrected and accelerated bootstrap method for moderately sized samples. However, two applications, one in forestry and the other in health sciences, demonstrate that no single method is best for all scenarios.     

Saddlepoint-Based Bootstrap Inference for Quadratic Estimating Equations

Abstract.  We propose an easy to implement method for making small sample parametric inference about the root of an estimating equation expressible as a quadratic form in normal random variables. It is based on saddlepoint approximations to the distribution of the estimating equation whose unique root is a parameter's maximum likelihood estimator (MLE), while substituting conditional MLEs for the remaining (nuisance) parameters. Monotoncity of the estimating equation in its parameter argument enables us to relate these approximations to those for the estimator of interest. The proposed method is equivalent to a parametric bootstrap percentile approach where Monte Carlo simulation is replaced by saddlepoint approximation. It finds applications in many areas of statistics including, nonlinear regression, time series analysis, inference on ratios of regression parameters in linear models and calibration. We demonstrate the method in the context of some classical examples from nonlinear regression models and ratios of regression parameter problems. Simulation results for these show that the proposed method, apart from being generally easier to implement, yields confidence intervals with lengths and coverage probabilities that compare favourably with those obtained from several competing methods proposed in the literature over the past half-century.     

Bootstrap methods for bias correction and confidence interval estimation for nonlinear quantile regression of longitudinal data

This paper examines the use of bootstrapping for bias correction and calculation of confidence intervals (CIs) for a weighted nonlinear quantile regression estimator adjusted to the case of longitudinal data. Different weights and types of CIs are used and compared by computer simulation using a logistic growth function and error terms following an AR(1) model. The results indicate that bias correction reduces the bias of a point estimator but fails for CI calculations. A bootstrap percentile method and a normal approximation method perform well for two weights when used without bias correction. Taking both coverage and lengths of CIs into consideration, a non-bias-corrected percentile method with an unweighted estimator performs best.     

Profile Likelihood Based Confidence Intervals for Common Intraclass Correlation Coefficient

In this article, we propose an approach for estimating the confidence interval of the common intraclass correlation coefficient based on the profile likelihood. Comparisons are made with a procedure using the concept of generalized pivots. The method presented is less computationally demanding than the method using generalized pivots. The approach also provides better coverage, and shorter lengths of confidence intervals for the case when the value of the common intraclass correlation coefficient is low. The lengths of confidence intervals given by both methods are quite comparable for high but less realistic values of the common intraclass correlation coefficient.     

Confidence intervals for the difference in paired Youden indices

Comparison of accuracy between two diagnostic tests can be implemented by investigating the difference in paired Youden indices. However, few literature articles have discussed the inferences for the difference in paired Youden indices. In this paper, we propose an exact confidence interval for the difference in paired Youden indices based on the generalized pivotal quantities. For comparison, the maximum likelihood estimate‐based interval and a bootstrap‐based interval are also included in the study for the difference in paired Youden indices. Abundant simulation studies are conducted to compare the relative performance of these intervals by evaluating the coverage probability and average interval length. Our simulation results demonstrate that the exact confidence interval outperforms the other two intervals even with small sample size when the underlying distributions are normal. A real application is also used to illustrate the proposed intervals. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Nonparametric standard errors and confidence intervals

We investigate several nonparametric methods; the bootstrap, the jackknife, the delta method, and other related techniques. The first and simplest goal is the assignment of nonparametric standard errors to a real-valued statistic. More ambitiously, we consider setting nonparametric confidence intervals for a real-valued parameter. Building on the well understood case of confidence intervals for the median, some hopeful evidence is presented that such a theory may be possible.     

Jackknife inference for heteroscedastic linear regression models

Inference on the regression parameters in a heteroscedastic linear regression model with replication is considered, using either the ordinary least-squares (OLS) or the weighted least-squares (WLS) estimator. A delete-group jackknife method is shown to produce consistent variance estimators irrespective of within-group correlations, unlike the delete-one jackknife variance estimators or those based on the customary δ-method assuming within-group independence. Finite-sample properties of the delete-group variance estimators and associated confidence intervals are also studied through simulation.     

On Properties of Percentile Bootstrap Confidence Intervals for Period Using Periodogram

Periodic functions have many applications in astronomy. They can be used to model the magnitude of light intensity of the period variable stars that their brightness vary with time. Because the data related to the astronomical applications are commonly observed at the time points that are not regularly spaced, the use of the periodogram as a good tool for estimating period is highlighted. Our bootstrap inference about period is based on maximizing the periodogram and consists of percentile two-sided bootstrap confidence intervals construction for the true period. We also obtain their coverage levels theoretically, and discuss the benefit of double-bootstrap confidence intervals for the parameter by which the coverage levels are substantially improved. Precisely, we show that the coverage error of single-bootstrap confidence intervals is of order n ^?1, decreasing to order n ^?2 when applying double-bootstrap methods. The simulation study given here is a numerical assessment of the theoretical work.