On drift parameter estimation in models with fractional Brownian motion

We consider a stochastic differential equation involving standard and fractional Brownian motion with unknown drift parameter to be estimated. We investigate the standard maximum likelihood estimate of the drift parameter, two non-standard estimates and three estimates for the sequential estimation. Model strong consistency and some other properties are proved. The linear model and Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model are studied in detail. As an auxiliary result, an asymptotic behaviour of the fractional derivative of the fractional Brownian motion is established.     

Statistical inference on the drift parameter in fractional Brownian motion with a deterministic drift

In statistical inference on the drift parameter a in the fractional Brownian motion W^H_t with the Hurst parameter H ∈ (0, 1) with a constant drift Y^H_t = at + W^H_t, there is a large number of options how to do it. We may, for example, base this inference on the properties of the standard normal distribution applied to the differences between the observed values of the process at discrete times. Although such methods are very simple, it turns out that more appropriate is to use inverse methods. Such methods can be generalized to non constant drift. For the hypotheses testing about the drift parameter a, it is more proper to standardize the observed process, and to use inverse methods based on the first exit time of the observed process of a pre-specified interval until some given time. These procedures are illustrated, and their times of decision are compared against the direct approach. Other generalizations are possible when the random part is a symmetric stochastic integral of a known, deterministic function with respect to fractional Brownian motion.     

Alternative forms of fractional Brownian motion

It is pointed out that two contradictory definitions of fractional Brownian motion are well-established, one prevailing in the probabilistic literature, the other in the econometric literature. Each is associated with a different definition of nonstationary fractional time series, arising in functional limit theorems based on such series. These various definitions have occasionally led to some confusion. The paper discusses the definitions and attempts a clarification.     

Variance Estimation for Fractional Brownian Motions with Fixed Hurst Parameters

Some real-world phenomena in geo-science, micro-economy, and turbulence, to name a few, can be effectively modeled by a fractional Brownian motion indexed by a Hurst parameter, a regularity level, and a scaling parameter σ², an energy level. This article discusses estimation of a scaling parameter σ² when a Hurst parameter is known. To estimate σ², we propose three approaches based on maximum likelihood estimation, moment-matching, and concentration inequalities, respectively, and discuss the theoretical characteristics of the estimators and optimal-filtering guidelines. We also justify the improvement of the estimation of σ² when a Hurst parameter is known. Using the three approaches and a parametric bootstrap methodology in a simulation study, we compare the confidence intervals of σ² in terms of their lengths, coverage rates, and computational complexity and discuss empirical attributes of the tested approaches. We found that the approach based on maximum likelihood estimation was optimal in terms of efficiency and accuracy, but computationally expensive. The moment-matching approach was found to be not only comparably efficient and accurate but also computationally fast and robust to deviations from the fractional Brownian motion model.     

Optimality of equidistant sampling designs for the Brownian motion with a quadratic drift

In the paper we show that the equidistant sampling designs are optimal for the model of Brownian motion with a quadratic drift and for any of its submodels. This result holds for all Loewner isotonic criteria of parametric optimality continuous on the set of regular information matrices, as well as for the mean squared error of the best linear unbiased predictor.     

Total shift during the first passages of Markov-modulated Brownian motion with bilateral ph-type jumps: Formulas driven by the minimal solution matrix of a Riccati equation

This article describes our study of the total shift during the first passages (one-sided and two-sided exit times) of Markov-modulated Brownian motion with bilateral ph-type jumps, which is referred to as MMBM. The total shift is defined as the value of a so-called shift process at the first passage epochs of the MMBM. The shift process, introduced by Bean and O’Reilly, behaves like a continuous Markovian fluid process; that is, it increases or decreases linearly with slopes regulated by the underlying Markov process that determines the path of the MMBM. Hence, the notion of total shift, which includes the first passage times of the MMBM as special cases, is useful for describing various performance measures of systems modeled by the MMBM. In this article, we present formulas for the Laplace–Stieltjes transform matrices of the total shift during various first passages of the MMBM. In particular, a Riccati equation is derived so that a matrix associated with the Laplace–Stieltjes transform of the total shift during the first return time of the MMBM is its minimal non-negative solution matrix. With this solution matrix, the Laplace–Stieltjes transform matrices can be obtained without much additional work. Furthermore, it is shown that the Riccati equation satisfies the conditions for the Newton scheme to have quadratic convergence, which enables us to use algorithms with quadratic convergence, such as Newton’s method and the Stochastic Doubling Algorithm, to compute the presented matrix-driven formulas. For the analyses, we take an approach based on approximating the MMBM with a sequence of scaled Markov-modulated fluid flows with bilateral ph-type jumps, referred to as MMFF, that weakly converge to the MMBM. Another contribution of this article is that duality results are derived in relation to the MMBM, which is an extension of the duality theorems developed by Ahn and Ramaswami for an MMFF without a jump.