A weibull process failure mechanism for the economic design of mewma control charts

The design parameters of the multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) control chart may be chosen according to economic and/or statistical considerations. The economic model proposed for the design of the'MEWMA chart assumes a Markovian process failure mechanism following an exponential distribution. We'assess the sensitivity of the resulting economic design for the MEWMA to deviations from this assumption. In particular, the generalization, from an exponential to a Weibull distribution of process failure, is used to study the selection of MEWMA chart parameters given process cost and time information. We conclude that the quality of the resulting design (in terms of expected cost) is not substantially affected by mis-specification of the distribution of process failure.     

A Multivariate Adaptive Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Control Chart

A multivariate extension of the adaptive exponentially weighted moving average (AEWMA) control chart is proposed. The new multivariate scheme can detect small and large shifts in the process mean vector effectively. The proposed scheme can be viewed as a smooth combination of a multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) chart and a Shewhart χ²-chart. The optimal design of the proposed chart is given according to a pre-specified in-control average run length and two shift sizes; a small and large shift each measured in terms of the non centrality parameter. The signal resistance of the newly proposed multivariate chart is also given. Comparisons among the new chart, the MEWMA chart, and the combined Shewhart-MEWMA (S-MEWMA) chart in terms of the standard and worst-case average run length profiles are presented. In addition, the three charts are compared with respect to their worst-case signal resistance values. The proposed chart gives somewhat better worst-case ARL and signal resistance values than the competing charts. It also gives better standard ARL performance especially for moderate and large shifts. The effectiveness of our proposed chart is illustrated through an example with simulated data set.     

Optimal Statistical Design of a Multivariate EWMA Chart Based on ARL and MRL

Statistical design is applied to a multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) control chart. The chart parameters are control limit H and smoothing constant r. The choices of the parameters depend on the number of variables p and the size of the process mean shift δ. The MEWMA statistic is modeled as a Markov chain and the Markov chain approach is used to determine the properties of the chart. Although average run length has become a traditional measure of the performance of control schemes, some authors have suggested other measures, such as median and other percentiles of the run length distribution to explain run length properties of a control scheme. This will allow a thorough study of the performance of the control scheme. Consequently, conclusions based on these measures would provide a better and comprehensive understanding of a scheme. In this article, we present the performance of the MEWMA control chart as measured by the average run length and median run length. Graphs are given so that the chart parameters of an optimal MEWMA chart can be determined easily.     

An Empirical-Likelihood-Based Multivariate EWMA Control Scheme

Nonparametric control charts are useful in statistical process control (SPC) when there is a lack of or limited knowledge about the underlying process distribution, especially when the process measurement is multivariate. This article develops a new multivariate SPC methodology for monitoring location parameter based on adapting a well-known nonparametric method, empirical likelihood (EL), to on-line sequential monitoring. The weighted version of EL ratio test is used to formulate the charting statistic by incorporating the exponentially weighted moving average control (EWMA) scheme, which results in a nonparametric counterpart of the classical multivariate EWMA (MEWMA). Some theoretical and numerical studies show that benefiting from using EL, the proposed chart possesses some favorable features. First, it is a data-driven scheme and thus is more robust to various multivariate non-normal data than the MEWMA chart under the in-control (IC) situation. Second, it is transformation-invariant and avoids the estimation of covariance matrix from the historical data by studentizing internally, and hence its IC performance is less deteriorated when the number of reference sample is small. Third, in comparison with the existing approaches, it is more efficient in detecting small and moderate shifts for multivariate non-normal process.     

Using the predictive distribution to determine control limits for the Bayesian MEWMA chart

Bayesian control charts have been proposed for monitoring multivariate processes with the multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) statistic. It has been suggested that we use limits based on the predictive distribution of the MEWMA statistic. This analysis, however is based on the erroneous result that the average run length (ARL) is a function of the exceedance probability, that is, the probability that the first point exceeds the control limit. We show how this result can be corrected and we discuss how the Bayesian MEWMA chart with limits based on the predictive distribution compares with other multivariate control chart procedures.     

The economic design of multivariate binomial EWMA VSSI control charts

Since multi-attribute control charts have received little attention compared with multivariate variable control charts, this research is concerned with developing a new methodology to employ the multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) charts for m-attribute binomial processes; the attributes being the number of nonconforming items. Moreover, since the variable sample size and sampling interval (VSSI) MEWMA charts detect small process mean shifts faster than the traditional MEWMA, an economic design of the VSSI MEWMA chart is proposed to obtain the optimum design parameters of the chart. The sample size, the sampling interval, and the warning/action limit coefficients are obtained using a genetic algorithm such that the expected total cost per hour is minimized. At the end, a sensitivity analysis has been carried out to investigate the effects of the cost and the model parameters on the solution of the economic design of the VSSI MEWMA chart.     

The Design of the Multivariate Synthetic Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Control Chart

A multivariate synthetic exponentially weighted moving average (MSEWMA) control chart is presented in this study. The MSEWMA control chart consists of a multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) control chart and a conforming run length control chart. The average run length of the MSEWMA control chart is obtained using a Markov chain approach. From the numerical comparisons, it is shown that the MSEWMA control chart is more efficient than the multivariate synthetic T ² control chart and the MEWMA control chart for detecting shifts in the process mean vector.     

Monitoring simple linear profiles using variable sample size schemes

ABSTRACT

Profile monitoring is one of the new research areas in statistical process control. Most of the control charts in this area are designed with fixed sampling rate which makes the control chart slow in detecting small to moderate shifts. In order to improve the performance of the conventional fixed control charts, adaptive features are proposed in which, one or more design parameters vary during the process. In this paper the variable sample size feature of EWMA₃ and MEWMA schemes are proposed for monitoring simple linear profiles. The EWMA₃ method is based on the combination of three exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) charts for monitoring three parameters of a simple linear profile separately and the Multivariate EWMA (MEWMA) chart is based on the using a single chart to monitor the coefficients and variance of a general linear profile. Also a two-sided control chart is proposed for monitoring the standard deviation in the EWMA₃ method. The performance of the proposed charts is compared in terms of the average time to signal. Numerical examples show that using adaptive features increase the power of control charts in detecting the parameter shifts. Finally, the performance of the proposed variable sample size schemes is illustrated through a real case in the leather industry.     

Mixed multivariate EWMA-CUSUM control charts for an improved process monitoring

Multivariate exponential weighted moving average and cumulative sum charts are the most common memory type multivariate control charts. They make use of the present and past information to detect small shifts in the process parameter(s). In this article, we propose two new multivariate control charts using a mixed version of their design setups. The plotting statistics of the proposed charts are based on the cumulative sum of the multivariate exponentially weighted moving averages. The performances of these schemes are evaluated in terms of average run length. The proposals are compared with their existing counterparts, including HotellingT², MCUSUM, MEWMA, and MC1 charts. An application example is also presented for practical considerations using a real dataset.     

Multivariate EWMA Control Chart with Adaptive Sample Sizes

Standard multivariate control charts usually employ fixed sample sizes at equal sampling intervals to monitor a process. In this study, a multivariate exponential weighted moving average (MEWMA) chart with adaptive sample sizes is investigated. Performance measure of the adaptive-sample-size MEWMA chart is obtained through a Markov chain approach. The performance of the adaptive-sample-size MEWMA chart is compared with the fixed-sample-size control chart in terms of steady-state average run length for different magnitude of shifts in the process mean. It is shown that the adaptive-sample-size chart is more efficient than the fixed-sample-size MEWMA control chart in detecting shifts in the process mean.     

A multivariate exponentially weighted moving average control chart for monitoring process variability

This paper introduces a new multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) control chart. The proposed control chart, called an EWMA V-chart, is designed to detect small changes in the variability of correlated multivariate quality characteristics. Through examples and simulations, it is demonstrated that the EWMA V-chart is superior to the |S|-chart in detecting small changes in process variability. Furthermore, a counterpart of the EWMA V-chart for monitoring process mean, called the EWMA M-chart is proposed. In detecting small changes in process variability, the combination of EWMA M-chart and EWMA V-chart is a better alternative to the combination of MEWMA control chart (Lowry et al. , 1992) and |S|-chart. Furthermore, the EWMA M- chart and V-chart can be plotted in one single figure. As for monitoring both process mean and process variability, the combined MEWMA and EWMA V-charts provide the best control procedure.     

Accounting for phase I sampling variability in the performance of the MEWMA control chart with estimated parameters

In this article, we assess the performance of the multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) control chart with estimated parameters while considering the practitioner-to-practitioner variability. We evaluate the chart performance in terms of the in-control average run length (ARL) distributional properties; mainly the average (AARL), the standard deviation (SDARL), and some percentiles. We show through simulations that using estimates in place of the in-control parameters may result in an in-control ARL distribution that almost completely lies below the desired value. We also show that even with the use of larger amounts of historical data, there is still a problem with the excessive false alarm rates. We recommend the use of a recently proposed bootstrap-based design technique for adjusting the control limits. The technique is quite effective in controlling the percentage of short in-control ARLs resulting from the estimation error.     

A novel approach based on multiple correspondence analysis for monitoring social networks with categorical attributed data

In in most cases, the distribution of communications is unknown and one may summarize social network communications with categorical attributes in a contingency table. Due to the categorical nature of the data and a large number of features, there are many parameters to be considered and estimated in the model. Hence, the accuracy of estimators decreases. To overcome the problem of high dimensionality and unknown communications distribution, multiple correspondence analysis is used to reduce the number of parameters. Then the rescaled data are studied in a Dirichlet model in which the parameters should be estimated. Moreover, two control charts, Hotelling’s T² and multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA), are developed to monitor the parameters of the Dirichlet distribution. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated through simulation studies in terms of average run length criterion. Finally, the proposed method is applied to a real case.     

Parameter optimization for a modified MEWMA control chart based on a PSO algorithm

The standard multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) control chart with a constant smoothing parameter or diagonal matrix is based on the assumption that the samples obey standard normal distribution. With improvements in manufacturing quality and product complexity, there is always correlativity among quality characteristics, and samples will not always obey standard normal distribution. Considering the correlativity among quality characteristics, a new modified general MEWMA (GEWMA) control chart is proposed, and its performance is analyzed. Based on the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm, a smoothing matrix optimized under certain conditions is selected and applied to a sample analysis. As a result of the parameter combination chosen by PSO, the statistic function of the GEWMA control chart is better than that of the full matrix MEWMA (FEWMA) control chart.     

Statistical Monitoring of Nominal Logistic Profiles in Phase II

Statistical analysis of profile monitoring, a relatively new sub-area of statistical process control due to its applications in different industries, have urged researchers and practitioners to contribute to the developments of new monitoring methods. A statistical profile is a relationship between a quality characteristic (a response) and one or more independent variables to characterize quality of a process or a product. In this article, statistical profiles based on nominal responses are studied, where logistic regression is used to model the responses. Three approaches including likelihood ratio test (LRT), multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA), and support vector machines (SVM) approaches are proposed to monitor quality of a process or product in Phase II. Performances of the proposed approaches are evaluated and compared using a case study. Moreover, the effect of two important factors on average run length (ARL) performance, number of levels and number of covariates, has been considered. Results indicate that performance of all approaches depends on the number of covariates and levels. As the number of these factors increases, SVM performance improves while performance of the other approaches deteriorates.     

Change Point Estimation of Multivariate Linear Profiles Under Linear Drift

In this paper, maximum likelihood estimators (MLE) for both step and linear drift changes in the regression parameters of multivariate linear profiles are developed. Performance of the proposed estimators is compared under linear drift changes in the regression parameters when a combined MEWMA and Chi-square control charts method signals an out-of-control condition. The effect of smoothing parameter of MEWMA control charts, missing data, and multiple drift changes on the performance of the both estimators is also evaluated. The application of the proposed estimators is also investigated thorough a numerical example resulted from a real case.     

A Double Multivariate Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (dMEWMA) Control Chart for a Process Location Monitoring

A new control scheme, dMEWMA, for detecting shifts in the mean vector of multivariately normally distributed quality characteristics is presented. It is shown that the ARL performance of dMEWMA depends on the mean and variance-covariance matricies only through the non-centrality parameter value. Through Monte Carlo simulations, the performance of dMEWMA for detecting various shifts is compared to the competing control schemes, MEWMA and Hotelling's χ². It is concluded that dMEWMA outperforms MEWMA and Hotelling's χ² control schemes for small and larger shifts. In comparison to MEWMA control schemes, dMEWMA schemes are optimal for larger values of the smoothing parameter λ and perform much better for very small shifts in the process mean. Finally, an example to illustrate the construction of the dMEWMA control scheme is introduced.     

The effect of parameter estimation on phase II monitoring of poisson regression profiles

ABSTRACT

The effect of parameters estimation on profile monitoring methods has only been studied by a few researchers and only the assumption of a normal response variable has been tackled. However, in some practical situation, the normality assumption is violated and the response variable follows a discrete distribution such as Poisson. In this paper, we evaluate the effect of parameters estimation on the Phase II monitoring of Poisson regression profiles by considering two control charts, namely the Hotelling’s T² and the multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) charts. Simulation studies in terms of the average run length (ARL) and the standard deviation of the run length (SDRL) are carried out to assess the effect of estimated parameters on the performance of Phase II monitoring approaches. The results reveal that both in-control and out-of-control performances of these charts are adversely affected when the regression parameters are estimated.     

CUSUM control schemes for monitoring the covariance matrix of multivariate time series

Modified cumulative sum (CUSUM) control charts and CUSUM schemes for residuals are suggested to detect changes in the covariance matrix of multivariate time series. Several properties of these schemes are derived when the in-control process is a stationary Gaussian process. A Monte Carlo study reveals that the proposed approaches show similar or even better performance than the schemes based on the multivariate exponentially weighted moving average (MEWMA) recursion. We illustrate how the control procedures can be applied to monitor the covariance structure of developed stock market indices.     

Sufficient reduction methods for multivariate time-dependent health surveillance data

ABSTRACT

Early detection with a low false alarm rate (FAR) is the main aim of outbreak detection as used in public health surveillance or in regard to bioterrorism. Multivariate surveillance is preferable to univariate surveillance since correlation between series (CBS) is recognized and incorporated. Sufficient reduction has proved a promising method for handling CBS, but has not previously been used when correlation within series (CWS) is present. Here we develop sufficient reduction methods for reducing a p-dimensional multivariate series to a univariate series of statistics shown to be sufficient to monitor a sudden, but persistent, shift in the multivariate series mean. Correlation both within and between series is taken into account, as public health data typically exhibit both forms of association. Simultaneous and lagged changes and different shift sizes are investigated. A one-sided exponentially weighted moving average chart is used as a tool for detection of a change. The performance of the proposed method is compared with existing sufficient reduction methods, the parallel univariate method and both VarR and Z charts. A simulation study using bivariate normal autoregressive data shows that the new method gives shorter delays and a lower FAR than other methods, which have high FARs when CWS is clearly present.