The relationship between individual expectations and behaviors: Mortality expectations and smoking decisions

Using data from the Health and Retirement Study, we assess the accuracy of subjective beliefs about mortality and objectively estimated probabilities for individuals in the same sample. Overall, subjective beliefs and objective probabilities are very close. However, there are differences conditional on behaviors, with current smokers being relatively optimistic and never smokers relatively pessimistic in their assessments. In the aggregate, individuals accurately predict longevity, but at the individual level, subjective beliefs provide information in addition to the estimated objective probabilities in predicting actual events, which may arise from the effect of past or anticipated decisions on these beliefs.

The sensitivity of subjective probability to time and elicitation method

The paper reports the results of a survey designed to elicit probability judgements for different types of events: ‘pure chance’ events, for which objective probabilities can be calculated; ‘public’ events, about which there may be some discussion in social groups and the media; and ‘personal’ events, such as those relating to crime or accidental injury. Even among respondents deemed to be ‘well-calibrated’ in the domain of pure chance events we find limited sensitivity to the ‘temporal scope’ of public and personal events—this being especially marked for personal events. We discuss possible reasons and some implications for policy-related survey work.

The impossibility of experimental elicitation of subjective probabilities

We show that if decision makers may have stakes in certain events then the experimental elicitation of their subjective probabilities of these events is impossible.We thank Eyal Sulganik for helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper.     

Future expectations of young people leaving youth care in Flanders: the role of personal and social capital in coping with expected challenges

What do young people leaving youth care think about their future? How do they view their transition between youth care and adulthood? These questions were answered by 71 young people leaving youth care in Flanders. The analysis of the interviews showed that three groups of young people can be distinguished when it comes to their expectations regarding the transition: those with positive future expectations that do not expect any difficulties during their transition, those with positive future expectations expecting difficulties that will eventually pass, and those with negative future expectations, who do not expect their transition difficulties will pass. Most respondents think the future is looking bright, because they are about to graduate or have graduated, and/or because they are intrinsically motivated to deal with their anticipated transition difficulties. Young people with negative future expectations do not stress their intrinsic motivation. Some of them think a (future) partner and their parents will be able to support them through their difficulties; they do not consider professional support as helpful, however.     

Discharge procedures for mentally ill people: The perspective of former psychiatric patients on their primary social network, quality of life and future life expectations

This article on literature about social networks and social support in order to integrate a number of key concepts and findings that must be considered in research about the social conditions of mentally ill people. Interviews with 53 former psychiatric patients were carried out to get their perspective on their social network, quality of life and future life expectations. The duration of and stigma attached to mental illness, being without work and gender seemed to have the most influence on the primary network. The same issues, except for gender, together with place of residence, financial difficulties and inability to exert influence over one's own situation influenced the respondents' quality of life and their expectations of the future. These findings are analysed and discussed from a social psychological perspective.     

Measuring the Propensity to Volunteer

As charities are expected to take on more and more of the provision of services to the disadvantaged, they will be calling on volunteers to support that work. The use of volunteers means important cost savings when compared to the use of paid service providers, thus giving one advantage to the voluntary sector when bidding in the mixed economy of welfare. Given the potential for increased use of volunteers, questions of motivation and commitment become very important. Volunteers make up a significant proportion of the human resources used to service social needs, yet previous research has not made it clear why and how volunteers come to give so much of themselves. This research demonstrates that there is an underlying Volunteerism–Activism Attitude which can be measured, and which holds within its four dimensions the key motivations for volunteering. Use of the scale measuring this attitude allows prediction of those people who are most likely (and least likely) to volunteer for charity activity. For charities the scale might provide a useful tool in managing the personnel with whom they are now expected to bid in the quasi-markets of service provision.     

收入差距测度及分解方法述评(英文)

本文按研究对象将收入差距划分为总体收入差距和组群收入差距两大类,从收入不平等、极化和组群收入差距三个层面梳理了收入差距的测度及其分解方法。其中,收入不平等侧重于对总体收入差距的刻画;极化着眼于收入分布中的“聚集”或“扎堆”现象,其衡量指标大体上可分为两极分化测度指标和多极分化测度指标。在收入差距的分解上,Shapley分解和组群收入差距的分布分解方法都是较为前沿的研究领域。文章还强调了各种收入差距衡量指标或分解方法的适用性和针对性,以便有的放矢地选用合适的相关指标和方法,更精准地探寻收入差距的成因。     

Updating Subjective Risks in the Presence of Conflicting Information: An Application to Climate Change

Willingness to support public programs for risk management often depends on individual subjective risk perceptions in the face of uncertain science. As part of a larger study concerning climate change, we explore individual updated subjective risks as a function of individual priors, the nature of external information, and individual attributes. We examine several rival hypotheses about how subjective risks change in the face of new information (Bayesian updating, alarmist learning, and ambiguity aversion). The source and nature of external information, as well as its collective ambiguity, can have varying effects across the population, in terms of both expectations and uncertainty.JEL Classification  D8, Q51, Q54     

The incoherence of agreeing to disagree

The agreeing-to-disagree theorem of Aumann and the no-expected-gain-from-trade theorem of Milgrom and Stokey are reformulated under an operational definition of Bayesian rationality. Common knowledge of beliefs and preferences is achieved through transactions in a contingent claims market, and mutual expectations of Bayesian rationality are defined by the condition of joint coherence,i.e., the collective avoidance of arbitrage opportunities. The existence of a common prior distribution and the impossibility of agreeing to disagree follow from the joint coherence requirement, but the prior must be interpreted as a risk-neutral distribution: a product of probabilities and marginal utilities for money. The failure of heterogenous information to create disagreements or incentives to trade is shown to be an artifact of overlooking the potential role of trade in constructing the initial state of common knowledge.     

Foster children's experiences and expectations concerning the child‐welfare officer role—Prerequisites and obstacles for close and trustful relationships

The question of whether the Swedish social services are fulfilling their obligation to monitor and support children in foster care is attracting increasing attention. The importance of closeness and trust between children and their child‐welfare officers has been highlighted in particular. The aim of this article is to study foster children's experiences and expectations concerning the role of the child‐welfare officer, and how these constitute prerequisites for, and possible obstacles to the officers developing close and trustful relationships with the children under prevailing institutional conditions. Data from our evaluation of a national pilot project with supervision representatives provide the empirical basis. Our theoretical point of departure is that the relationship between the child and the child‐welfare officer is affected by the officer's role—a role that is negotiated under the prevailing institutional conditions and in interaction with the children's experiences of and expectations about that role. The results show that most children emphasize that the relationship with their officer is negatively affected by a lack of time, availability, and trust. It is also weakened by the children's general expectation that child‐welfare officers only act in their official role, a role that is associated with a formal and distanced relationship.     

Measuring intention to refer: Older adults and social service agencies

The public is encouraged to engage in socially responsible behaviors such as helping people get needed services, possibly by referring them. However, referral behavior is little researched. Informed by the theory of planned behavior, intent to refer older adults in need to the Connecticut’s Gatekeeper Program (GP) which identifies elders at risk and connects them with community resources was studied and the Social Service Agency Referral Scale (SSARS) was developed. Senior center attendees, seniors who received GP training, and referrers to the state’s GP were involved. SSARS and its subscales were internally consistent (Cronbach’s α = .90, with α ≥ .733 for each subscale). SSARS was strongly correlated with a validated social responsibility scale (r = .48). Knowledge gained from the training enhanced the associated intention subscale. With little modification, SSARS could be used to elucidate similar efforts. Additionally, the process used to create SSARS could be replicated to develop related instruments.     

When groups in glass houses throw stones: Public expectations of how activist groups respond to identity threats

This experimental study explores how the general public views an activist organization's affective threat appraisal as a function of three factors: the organization's anger level, efficacy level, and consistency of ascribed identity with avowed identity. Results shed light on the affective threat appraisal that activist organizations might use to manage emerging conflict with the general public. A typology of activist organizations is offered to account for levels of anger and likely efficacy when organizations face perceived disconnects between avowed identity and the identity ascribed to the activist group as a result of reported behavior. Empirical evidence suggests that an identity crisis involving identity discrepancies of an activist organization can have a profoundly negative impact on the organization's image, reputation, and even survival.     

Applying the international wellbeing index to investigate subjective wellbeing of New Zealanders with European and with Maori heritage

Abstract

The International Wellbeing Index (IWI), a global measure for investigating subjective wellbeing, consists of a Personal Wellbeing Index (PWI) and a National Wellbeing Index (NWI). The index is applied to the two largest ethnic populations in New Zealand—New Zealanders with European heritage and New Zealanders with Maori heritage. Psychometric characteristics of the IWI for both subsamples compare favourably to those found in other countries. However, for both subsamples, the absolute value of reported subjective wellbeing is lower than expected. Consistent with other social indicators, New Zealanders with Maori heritage show even lower values of PWI and NWI than New Zealanders with European heritage.     

Bad News about Bad News: The Disclosure of Risks to Insurability in Research Consent Processes

Many people have difficulty in generating random numbers. This difficulty suggests that potentially fabricated numbers encountered in investigations of scientific misconduct be examined for nonrandom behavior. The present paper shows that even with a conscious effort to construct random digits, many subjects are unable to produce digits with a uniform distribution. For this study, subjects were directed to try to produce random digits in three places in order to fabricate a series of “pick 3”; lottery numbers. Subjects were most successful at producing a random (uniform) distribution of digits for the leftmost place; however, success at one place was not associated with success at another. In addition, subjects did not select all digits with equal frequency. Of 8,280 digits chosen in this study, the order from most to least chosen was 1, 2, 3, 6, 4, 9, 7, 0, 8, 5. Finally, no strong correlations among subjects’ digit choices were found. The conscious effort by these subjects to produce random digits stands in contrast with the usual case of data fabrication in which the fabricator must devote a conscious effort to choose leftmost digits so the number has the magnitude desired and pays little or no attention to the fact that the rightmost digits should be random. The results of the present paper indicate that even if a data‐fabricator were aware that error digits would be examined for uniformity, success in constructing uniform error distributions is not guaranteed. The difficulty that people have in creating random error digits supports the utility of examining such digits in investigations of scientific misconduct.     

Make Efforts to Develop an Olive-shaped Distribution Pattern: An Analysis Based on Data from the Chinese Social Survey for 2006-2013

Increasing the proportion of the middle income group is key to shrinking the income gap and developing an olive-shaped distribution structure in China. Data from the Chinese Social Survey for 2006 to 2013 show that the proportion of the middle income group oscillates between 27 percent and 28 percent. It is estimated that by 2020, we will have achieved an initial olive-shaped distribution structure (larger in the middle and smaller at each end) if the average income of the lower and lower middle income groups can be quadrupled and that of the middle and high income groups can be doubled. To achieve this aim, we need to ensure that residents’ incomes rise faster than GDP, continue large-scale poverty reduction, endeavor to improve the employment situation for college graduates and the new generation of migrant workers, improve the social security system, stabilize the price of goods and housing, and alleviate the pressure on the lower middle income group.     

Social Protection in Vietnam and Obstacles to Progressivity

The present paper analyzes the incidence and progressivity of Vietnamese state income transfers using survey data from the Vietnamese Household Living Standards Survey 2004. Data quality and sample selection issues are highlighted, especially in the coverage of rural-urban migrants. Simple income-based profiles of incidence are matched to several influences that confound and complicate the measurement of progressivity. The issue of the informal economy is highlighted through analysis of both the extent of private inter-household transfers and remittances and their relationship with state transfers, and in the informal charges that accompany uptake of state services and other petty corruption. Second, the issue of user-charges for health and education services is considered, as a considerable portion of state transfers are related to the take up of schooling and health care. Third, the issue of behavioral effects is also considered, concentrating on private inter-household transfers. The paper concludes by drawing together the evidence and the obstacles to measurement and progressivity to argue a range of data collection, methodological and policy recommendations.     

Measuring Volunteerability and the Capacity to Volunteer among Non‐volunteers: Implications for Social Policy

As volunteering and its benefits gain global recognition, social policymakers can sustain and increase volunteering through social policy, legislation and other types of involvement. A key performance practice is to measure the rate of volunteering based on the percentage of the population that volunteer or the number of hours donated. The focus of this article, however, is on the capacity to volunteer by non‐volunteers as well as by volunteers. The concept and theory of volunteerability (an individual's ability to overcome related obstacles and volunteer, based on his or her willingness, capability and availability) offers a richer understanding of how people can be assisted to overcome barriers to maximize their volunteer potential and thus increase volunteering. The article details the definitions and benefits of volunteering and covers examples of related social policy, as well as explaining the concept of volunteerability and how it can be measured using existing and new scales. Based on a mixed methods study in Australia, the article offers specific measures to examine the concept of volunteerability and reveals important differences between volunteers and non‐volunteers. The article also details major barriers to volunteering and how social policies can be developed to overcome them.     

劳动价值论新探

劳动的复杂存在,知识的增长,服务活动层出不穷的展现和扩大,已使劳动从一元走向多元.无产阶级剥夺剥夺者的任务实现之后资本已与劳动从对立走向合作,这是现代经济的一大特征.劳动收入积累形成价值,是劳动价值论的继续.要素分配论不是劳动价值论的否定,只是在肯定劳动价值论的前提下,对其他生产要素给予了肯定.劳动不是一切财富的源泉,劳动和自然界才是一切财富的源泉.未来社会的发展趋势,劳动形成的资本收入将超过劳动收入无产者成为有产者,这是社会的巨大进步,是劳动从必然向自由的跨越.