城市化阶段和大城市地区不同区域人口空间变动——以上海静安区、浦东新区和南汇区为例

在城市化发展的不同阶段,大城市的不同区域人口变动表现出不同的特点。研究根据20多年历时性数据的动态分析,对上海中心城区、近郊区和远郊区在人口总量、迁移强度和迁移方向的不同特点进行定量研究和比较研究。在1992年前后,上海的郊区化历程才正式开始,当前上海正处于从前期郊区化向深度郊区化的转折时期、从初期相对扩散向绝对扩散发展的时期。需要根据不同区域人口变动的规律性,实行分区域的人口发展对策:结合人口导出带来的城市问题引导城市更新;结合近郊区人口聚集加强公共服务能力;引导远郊区的人口聚集加强新城建设。     

长三角都市区人口集疏过程及其空间格局变化

基于1982年、1990年、2000年和2010年4次人口普查数据。利用洛伦兹曲线、基尼系数和人口密度等人口分布研究指标,分析了长三角都市区人口分布态势和地域格局;利用人口增减变化和人口商度等指标探讨了近30年来长三角都市区的人口增减变化和空间集疏情况。研究表明：（1）长三角都市区在保持较为均衡的人口分布态势下人口总量继续增加。上海市及主要大城市核心主导作用日益突出;（2）人口显著增加地区日益增多,人口减少地区逐步减少;（3）以人口强流入为主的人口空间集聚过程日趋激烈;（4）区域发展梯度和经济发展差异已成为人口空间集疏变化的主要诱因和拉力．城市化则是人口流动的主要推动力。     

The transition to nonmetropolitan population deconcentration

A major aim of this study is to address our lack of understanding of rural-urban population change within nonmetropolitan counties of the United States. Specifically, we (a) examine trends between 1950 and 1975 in differential rural and urban growth rates within nonmetropolitan counties, and (b) examine the relationship between county location/function and within-county deconcentration. We show that the post-1970period has not simply marked the net shift of population from metropolitan to nonmetropolitan areas, but has also ushered in a pattern of population deconcentration within most nonmetropolitan areas. It is also clear that traditional ecological and economic base variables have been of diminishing utility in explaining deconcentration during the 1970s, suggesting that deconcentration is now evident in nonmetropolitan counties characterized by a broad spectrum of economic and sociodemographic traits.     

我国城市人口规模分布演化影响因素研究

本文根据新经济地理学经济集聚机制,建立了一个城市体系人口规模分布演化影响因素的综合分析框架,并基于Zipf法则构建了城市人口规模分布演化的计量模型,然后采用中国284个地级及以上城市2003～2009年的面板数据进行实证检验。结果发现,经济地理因素、新经济地理因素与经济政策因素均显著影响城市人口规模分布。     

Population redistribution policy in Korea: A review

With its rapid industrial transformation over the last two decades, Korea has experienced a massive population shift from rural to urban areas. In particular, population concentration together with the concentration of economic and political power in the primate city of Seoul created spatial imbalances and a host of urban problems which are not uncommon to many developing nations. In response to these persisting imbalances and problems, the government of Korea has implemented various programs and measures since 1970. Korea's experiment with population redistribution, although it may not be easily replicated in other countries, provides a rare example with which we can examine some of the major issues involved in population distribution policies. The paper reviews Korean policies and programs for population redistribution, assesses their effects in redressing the three major spatial imbalances - between urban and rural, between regions, and between cities of different sizes - and draws lessons for policy formation in Korea as well as in other countries which are considering such a policy.     

长江流域城市人口分布及空间相关性研究

本文选取长江流域104个城市人口样本作为研究对象,采用人口分布的结构指数和空间自相关分析方法,以及借用GIS技术来研究长江流域城市人口分布的空间动态特征和城市人口之间的功能联系。结果表明,长江流域城市人口空间结构呈均衡发展态势;人口密度分布呈现趋同趋势;城市人口与邻近城市人口之间的空间正相关要多于空间负相关;长江流域城市人口之间的空间关联性被分为八种类型。     

Population distribution and economic development in Africa: The need for urbanization policies

Many countries in Africa are facing severe development problems because of high rates of population growth, stagnant or declining agricultural productivity, and increasing migration of the rural poor to large cities. Most demographic studies of Africa ignore problems arising from the spatial distribution of population and public allocation of investment. Strategic planning of the location of development investments in ways that will prevent or reduce excessive concentration of population and productive activities in large primary cities is becoming increasingly important for many African governments. In this article it is argued that the excessive growth of primary cities in predominantly rural countries can be detrimental to their economic recovery. Policies encouraging more widespread distribution of population in secondary cities and towns and policies promoting investment in physical infrastructure, marketing, small-scale manufacturing, and agroprocessing in secondary cities and towns can provide a stronger base for both rural and urban development in many African countries in the future.     

Residential redistribution of socioeconomic strata in metropolitan areas

This paper is a preliminary report on an ecological analysis of recent changes in the spatial distribution of socioeconomic strata within 363 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (or substituted units) in the United States. The central hypothesis guiding the study is that certain population subgroups in and around the larger urban areas are shifting their residential locations in predictable directions. Changes in the distribution of educational classes between the central city (or cities) and their surrounding rings from 1950 to 1960 are traced by using census data. A special feature of the analysis is the inclusion of 163 "lquasi-metropolitan areas" centered on cities that had 25,000-50,000 inhabitants in 1960.The initial results indicate that residential redistribution according to "social class" is occurring in all these metropolitan areas and that the pattern of change varies systematically. Regional differences are pronounced, and, as prior research has suggested, age of the city and population size appear to be important factors. The percent of adults in the high school and college categories in the rings of older and larger metropolitan areas generally increased disproportionately compared to the central cities. A variety of patterns of change, however, occurred among the younger and smaller metropolitan areas.Subsequent analyses will include (a) alternative methods of controlling color and regional location, (b) other measures of the independent and dependent variables used here, and (c) a multivariate approach to the problem of identifying and assessing the explanatory power of additional independent variables (including population growth, the over-all rate of decentralization, annexation history, economic base, and the character of the ring). The extent as well as the direction of change will also be investigated. Finally, the feasibility of quantifying an "evolutionary sequence" in the distribution of social classes will also receive attention.     

Spatial Effect of Population –Economic Distribution Consistency in China

China＇s male marriage squeeze and its potential consequence have attracted much attention and given rise to debate, but most studies contribute this squeeze to sex structure and neglect the age structure, and some studies use flawed method to study the contribution of age structure in this squeeze. In this paper we develop an indicator of Spousal Sex Ratio （SSR） and apply a decomposition method into age and sex structure. Based on the data from China＇s 2010 census and projection, we predict that from 2010 to 2020, the age structure will be the dominant factor for China＇s male marriage squeeze, and from 2020 to 2034, the contribution of sex structure will be increasing, whereas that of age structure will be decreasing. From 2034 to 2045, China＇s male marriage squeeze will mainly from imbalanced sex structure, and the age structure will contribute little or negatively to China＇s male marriage squeeze.     

京津冀城市群人口空间结构演变及优化路径研究

人口的流动和分布直接影响着城市群城镇体系的质量,进而影响着城市群经济社会的可持续协调发展。文章从人口分布的空间差异、动态变化以及空间格局三个层面探讨了京津冀城市群人口分布演化特征;基于中心地理论和新经济地理理论,从行政、经济、交通三个角度构建了城市人口规模分布演化影响因素分析框架,利用Zipf法则对2003～2013年京津冀城市群人口演化规律进行研究。结果表明,城市行政级别、人力资源水平、经济结构、交通建设等因素对京津冀城市群人口规模分布影响显著。基于此,提出应当通过公共服务均等化、城市技能互补、产业布局优化、交通网络建设完善等对策引导京津冀地区人口合理布局的建议,助推京津冀协同发展重大战略的实施。     

空间相互作用与城市经济增长--来自长三角的证据

基于以往研究对空间相互作用方向性考虑不足的事实,文章以长三角133个县市为例,构建了融合新经济地理学与中心地理论的理论框架,将表征空间需求关联的总体市场潜能细分为来自同层级、高等级、低等级三个方向,利用空间计量模型估计了总体及不同方向的空间相互作用对长三角地区人均GDP增长与人口增长的效应。结果显示：在控制空间依赖导致的间接溢出效应等因素后,并未发现存在要素价格绝对调整或要素数量绝对调整的证据,总体市场潜能的提高同时促进了城市人均GDP增长与人口增长;就不同方向的空间相互作用而言,大城市的自身发展有利于中等城市的人均GDP增长,大城市之间、大城市对下级城市、小城市对上级城市形成了人口增长的良性互动格局,而中等城市之间以及中等城市对大城市的人口增长则表现为回流效应。     

Residential preferences and population distribution

Public opinion research has revealed decided preferences for living in rural areas and small towns, and proponents of population deconcentration have interpreted this as support for their policies. This study, based on a national sample, yielded similar results, but when we introduced the additional possibility of a preference for proximity to a larger city, then the rural areas preferred were found, for most respondents, to be those within the commuting range of a metropolitan central city. Although persons wishing to live near large cities were found to be looking for the same qualities of living sought by those who prefer a more remote location, these findings are not, in general, consistent with the argument that public preferences support strategies of population dispersal into nonmetropolitan areas. Instead they indicate that most of those who wish to live in a different location favor the peripheral metropolitan ring areas that have, in fact, been growing rapidly by in-migration.     

Study on Asia's growing cities: Republic of Korea

Focus in this discussion of migration and urbanization in Korea is on the following: historical perspective, implications of urban growth, urbanization trends and population distribution, patterns of migration, socioeconomic differences, and population redistribution policies. Korea is one of the most densely populated countries in Asia. Attempts to deal successfully with this phenomenon have met with varying degrees of success. Population concentration in the capital region continues to be a problem and has resulted in acute housing shortages, rapidly rising land prices, and on encroachment of urban land use into prime agricultural land surrounding the Seoul metropolitan region. Between 1955-1975 the population of Seoul increased from 1.6 million to 6.9 million for the capital city proper and to 9.4 million for its metropolitan region, including 5 satellite cities. This fringe spillover began in the late 1960s. The metropolitan area, comprising 4 cities around the fast growing city of Busan in the south, was formed in the mid-1970s with 3.2 million people. At this time major policy concerns center on the demographic phenomenon of continued concentrations in the Seoul and Busan regions. Problem issues which persist include nonfarm polarization, regional imbalance, diverging intra-sectoral incomes, and the aging rural labor force. Despite its nearness to the demilitarized zone, Seoul was and continues to be the focal point of economic and educational opportunity. The early 1960s brought little variation in migration and urbanization trends. In 1961 family planning and planned economic development were initiated but their impact came several years later. The overall urban growth rate dropped from 5.4 to 4.6% in the 1960-1966 period, and Seoul's pace of expansion slowed down to an annual average of 6.5%. Yet, the capital continued its urbanizing dominance. By 1975 Korea had 3 cities with a population of over 3 million: Seoul, Busan, and Daegu. In 1975 48.4% of the country's population of 34.7 million lived in the 35 cities designated as urban. Migrants comprised 21.5% of the 1970 national population, and the shift was rural-urban for almost 3/4 of them. Korea's industrial takeoff during the mid-1960s had 2 noteworthy effects: rising urban wages doubled rural income levels in real terms by 1970; and the exodus from the countryside was so intense that the rural population shrank between 1965-1970, for the 1st time since the Korean War. A successful family planning program had helped to lower the annual population growth rate to 1.9% by the late 1970s, but heavy out-migration from rural areas was the major factor.     

中国城市规模分布及影响因素实证研究

文章应用城市位序—规模法则与分形理论,测算了1999—2008年间分别以城市人口、建成区面积和经济规模表征的中国城市规模分布分维值,对分维值进行了纵向对比分析,并实证分析了影响城市规模的主要因素。研究结果显示：中国城市规模分布具有显著的分形特征,符合城市位序—规模法则;1999—2008年间三种表征的中国城市规模分布分维值均呈现下降趋势;中国城市规模具有明显区域性差异,资本投入、科技水平、产业结构和外资是推动城市规模扩大的重要因素。最后,文章据此提出了发展和完善中国城市规模体系的对策建议。     

Population Projections and Demographic Knowledge in France and Great Britain in the Postwar Period

This study examines how official national population projections—a key mechanism for the production and dissemination of demographic knowledge—contributed to differing interpretations of population and fertility trends in France and Great Britain in the decades following World War II, despite these countries' similar fertility rates during most of this period. Projections presented different visions of the demographic future in the two countries. In France, publication of multiple variants emphasized future contingency, with low variants illustrating future population decline due to prolonged below‐replacement fertility. In Britain, publication of a single variant, assuming near‐replacement‐level fertility rates, projected moderate growth. National population projections thus created divergent representations of the two countries' demographic futures: an ever‐present threat of population decline in France, and a reassuring image of stability in Britain. Two principal mechanisms that contributed to cross‐national differences in population projections—national demographic history and institutional configurations—are discussed.     

Urbanization and de-urbanization of the black population before the civil war

Pre-Civil War black urbanization is examined using data from federal census records, 1790 to 1860. The black population is found to be as urban as the white population initially, but its urbanization underwent relative decline in the last two decades before the Civil War. Foreshadowing current patterns, the northern black population was heavily concentrated in the largest cities, and the free black population was the most urban of all groups. The timing of black urban decline in the North, as well as regional and size of place differences in that decline, suggest that both competition with immigrants in major eastern seaboard cities and the passage of the Fugitive Slave Law in 1850 contributed to black de-urbanization. For the South, the explanations of black urban decline proposed by Wade, Conrad and Meyer, Goldin, and Bonacich are evaluated, and Bonacich’s split labor market theory is judged to be most consistent with the demographic trends.     

Rethinking population distribution policies

Developed and developing nations are generally dissatisfied with the spatial distributions of their populations. Dissatisfaction is particularly acute on the part of developing nations which view their problems of population distribution as more serious than those of natural increase. The overwhelming majority of governments have already adopted policies to affect rates and patterns of internal migration or the configuration of their rural and urban populations. However, recent reviews of these policies suggest they have been only partially successful. Apparent policy deficiencies are reviewed and possible remedies suggested in regard to the need for intervention, the scope of policies, their objectives, instruments, and evaluation.     

Science,Modernity, and the Making of China's One‐Child Policy

China's one‐child‐per‐couple policy represents an extraordinary attempt to engineer national wealth, power, and global standing by drastically braking population growth. Despite the policy's external notoriety and internal might, its origins remain obscure. In the absence of scholarly research on this question, public discourse in the United States has been shaped by media representations portraying the policy as the product of a repressive communist regime. This article shows that the core ideas underlying the one‐child policy came instead from Western science, in particular from the Club of Rome's world‐in‐crisis work of the early 1970s. Drawing on research in science studies, the article analyzes the two notions lying at the policy's core—that China faced a virtual “population crisis” and that the one‐child policy was “the only solution” to it—as human constructs forged by specific groups of scientists working in particular, highly consequential contexts. It documents how the fundamentally political process of constituting population as an object of science and governance was then depoliticized by scientizing rhetorics that presented China's population crisis and its only solution as numerically describable, objective facts. By probing the human and historical character of population research, this article underscores the complexity of demographic knowledge‐making and the power of scientific practices in helping constitute demographic reality itself.     

Urbanization as a Global Historical Process: Theory and Evidence from sub‐Saharan Africa

Urbanization has traditionally been understood as a byproduct of economic development, but this explanatory framework fails to account for the phenomenon of “urbanization without growth” observed in sub‐Saharan Africa throughout the 1980s and 1990s. In light of this apparent anomaly, I argue that urbanization is better understood as a global historical process driven by population dynamics associated with technological and institutional innovations that have substantially improved disease control and food security in urban settlements across the globe. These innovations first emerged in Europe in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries and were subsequently diffused through colonialism, trade, and international development assistance. A range of qualitative and quantitative evidence is presented to demonstrate that this historically grounded theory of urbanization offers a more convincing explanation for the stylized facts of Africa's urban transition—and hence the process of world urbanization more broadly—than the traditional economic account.