财政科技支出与经济增长的实证分析——以陕西省为例

研究财政科技支出与经济增长的关系对科学指导财政科技投入能起到积极作用。使用协整检验、Granger因果检验等计量方法对陕西省1986-2009年的相关数据进行实证分析,结果表明陕西省财政科技支出对经济增长有促进作用,但就目前投入的规模和结构而言,其对经济增长的促进作用有限。     

浙江科技投入与经济增长关联的实证分析

文章运用灰色关联度测定理论,根据浙江2000～2006年的科技统计数据,分析了各个科技投入指标与浙江省经济增长之间的关系.研究表明:R&D经费支出、科技人员投入和技术引进与经济增长均有正相关关系,而科技人员投入对经济增长的影响最为显著,而高校是浙江科技的主力军,其研发经费的投入作用最明显.     

R＆D经费投入带动中国经济增长的时滞性分析

研究和试验发展（R＆D）是科技活动中最具有创造性和创新性的内容。基于灰色关联分析方法构建时滞分析模型,研究了中国基础研究、应用研究和试验发展的经费投入带动经济增长的时滞性,结果显示：基础研究和应用研究的经费投入带动经济增长的滞后期均在9年以上,随着滞后期的延长这种带动作用呈现上升趋势;而试验发展的经费投入带动经济增长的滞后期为4年左右,随着滞后期的延长这种带动作用呈现下降的趋势。从科技战略的长远发展考虑,中国既要继续增加R＆D经费投入总量,也要重视不同研究性质经费投入的协调发展。     

陕西省区域技术创新能力影响因素分析

根据陕西省1991—2008年统计数据,利用岭回归估计建立模型,运用知识生产函数对陕西省区域技术创新能力影响因素进行实证分析。研究结果表明：科研机构、企业和高校科技投入对陕西区域技术创新产出具有显著的作用,而人力资本投入对陕西区域技术创新产出作用不显著。     

上海科技进步态势分析

近几年来,上海按照中央的总体部署,认真贯彻落实“科教兴市”战略,科学技术的总体实力和水平明显提高,科技进步对经济增长和社会发展的作用也越来越大.随着经济发展速度的加快,经济运行质量对科技的依赖程度日益加强.一、科技投入的总量和强度明显提高,全社会科技进步意识增强科技投入的总量和强度反映了一个地区的科技实力及政府和全社会对科技事业的支持程度.1997年,上海市全社会科技经费投入为165.61亿元;全社会研究开发经费(R＆D)经费投入为49.76亿元,分别比1996年增长23.25%和21.66%,比同期国内生产总值(GDP)的名义增长率高7个百分点和6个百分点,保持     

四川R＆D资源现状分析

R&D是科技活动的重要组成部分,联合国教科文组织把R&D投入作为各国之间比较科技投入的主要指标。R&D活动对国家整个科技的发展,特别是经济的发展具有非常重要的基础作用。R&D活动的开展有赖于R&D资源的支撑,其核心资源包括人力和财力两个主要部分。R&D经费总量及R&D经费占GDP的比重是一组国际通用、用于衡量一个国家科技活动规模及科技投入强度的重要指标。     

科技如何才能促进经济发展？—上虞市工业科技活动现状分析及发展思路

一个地区的科技活动状况是衡量该地区经济发展综合实力的一个重要指标 ,科技投入的大小、科技活动水平的高低直接关系到经济发展的后劲和活力。近年来 ,上虞市大力实施“科教兴市”战略 ,科技进步对经济增长的贡献率已达５５．０ %。本文从科技进步促进经济发展这个论点入手 ,通过对上虞市工业科技统计资料分析 ,提出存在的问题和发展思路。一、科技进步促进经济发展据１９９９年科技统计年报资料及相关指标分析显示 ,上虞市科技对经济的推进作用明显。１．科技经费投入快速增长。１９９９年上虞市科技经费投入总额２４２５１万元 ,同比增长…     

区域创新研发投入要素与GDP的关联度测算研究

文章以研究区域创新投入要素与其经济增长的关联序为目的,通过构建区域科技创新研发投入评价指标体系,利用改进的灰色关联度模型测算了1997年至2002年江苏省中部地区科技创新研发人员数、科技创新研发经费投入与其GDP的关联序.结果表明:该地区科技创新研发经费投入与GDP之间的关联度相时科技创新研发人员投入与GDP关联度更大.     

基于统计指标的地区科技经费投入特征分析

 本文基于科技经费投入统计指标,应用基尼系数分析、区位商等方法从差异性、均衡性、关联性等方面分析了地区科技经费投入的区域特征情况。通过对各地区科技经费投入的水平、规模、优势与不足的深入研究,可以为各级政府制定科学合理的区域科技发展政策、规划区域科学技术体系布局、协调科技与经济和社会的关系提供依据和参考。     

财政性高等教育投入的外溢效应研究

政府财政性投入是高等教育经费来源的主渠道,其投入规模对国家经济增长具有重要影响。在建立中国财政对高等教育投入因素的卢卡斯教育资源外溢效应模型的基础上,研究表明：财政性高等教育投入对经济增长的作用明显,而其与人力资源的共同作用却对经济增长具有微弱的反向作用。因此,深化财政体制改革、完善财政性教育经费管理和评估、建立高校运行成本核算、提高高等教育资源使用效率等措施,是增强财政性高等教育投入外溢效应和促进经济又好又快增长的重要手段。     

Measuring the degree of severity of heteroskedasticity and the choice between the ols estimator and the 2sae

This paper dwells on the choice between the ordinary least squares and the estimated generalized least squares estimators when the presence of heteroskedasticity is suspected. Since the estimated generalized least squares estimator does not dominate the ordinary least squares estimator completely over the whole parameter space, it is of interest to the researcher to know in advance whether the degree of severity of heteroskedasticity is such that OLS estimator outperforms the estimated generalized least squares (or 2SAE). Casting the problem in the non-spherical error mold and exploiting the principle underlying the Bayesian pretest estimator, an intuitive non-mathematical procedure is proposed to serve as an aid to the researcher in deciding when to use either the ordinary least squares (OLS) or the estimated generalized least squares (2SAE) estimators.     

我国经济社会协调发展的内涵及其测度研究

从我国经济社会协调发展的内涵来看,协调发展既应强调协调,也应强调发展,是协调和发展的综合体.已有文献中,有学者用离差系数来测度协调发展水平,事实上,离差系数只能测度一组数据的离散趋势,也就是说只能测度协调水平,而无法描述系统间的发展度,离差系数在测度协调发展水平时存在一定的局限.但不可否认,离差系数在测度协调度时有着先天的优势,在离差系数上加权发展度效应,则可以更加科学的测度我国经济社会协调发展水平.     

Statistics and the medicine of the future

New drugs that are effective and safe for all become harder and harder to find. Individuals react differently to different medications. Chris Harbron points to a future where drugs will be better targeted. With the help of statisticians we will each have our own designer drugs, no longer off-the-shelf but tailored exactly to suit our own individual genome.     

剖析消费量升降因素，完善节能量计算方法

能源是进行社会主义现代化建设和提高人民生活水平的重要物质基础。经济建设的增长速度和发展规模与人民生活水平的提高,与能源的生产数量、消费情况有密切的关系。我国要实现到本世纪末工农业年总产值翻两番的目标,能源是个重要的制约因素。如何在加强能源开发的同时,大力节约能源消费,是各级领导都很关心的问题。     

Optimal and Robust Designs for Estimating the Concentration Curve and the AUC

The problem of interest is to estimate the concentration curve and the area under the curve (AUC) by estimating the parameters of a linear regression model with an autocorrelated error process. We introduce a simple linear unbiased estimator of the concentration curve and the AUC. We show that this estimator constructed from a sampling design generated by an appropriate density is asymptotically optimal in the sense that it has exactly the same asymptotic performance as the best linear unbiased estimator. Moreover, we prove that the optimal design is robust with respect to a minimax criterion. When repeated observations are available, this estimator is consistent and has an asymptotic normal distribution. Finally, a simulated annealing algorithm is applied to a pharmacokinetic model with correlated errors.     

Modern statistics: the myth and the magic

Summary.  The paper is a personal exploration of the puzzling contradiction between the fundamental excitement of statistics and its poor public image. It begins with the historical foundations and proceeds through the role of applications and the dramatic impact of the computer in shaping the discipline. The mismatch between the reality of statistics and its public perception arises from a number of dichotomies, some of which are explored. In particular, although statistics is perhaps typically seen as an impersonal discipline, in some sense it is very personal, and many of its applications are aimed at providing unique benefit to individuals. This benefit depends on the creation of detailed data sets describing individuals, but the contrary view is that this represents an invasion of privacy. Some observations on statistical education are made, and issues which will affect the future health of the discipline are examined.     

Investigating the link between the Pill and cancer

Does the contraceptive pill increase the risk of cancer? The question has been asked ever since the pill was introduced, and is one that must worry almost every woman in the country. Small wonder that when the results of a long-term study, which began 40 years ago, came out in the autumn it made front-page headlines. As Phil Hannaford explains, answering the question was not straightforward.     

Exploring the relationship between gold and the dollar

It has often been argued that one of the reasons for holding gold is as a hedge against currency movements. An exploratory data analysis to examine the validity of this theory can be carried out quickly and simply, using some of the wide and varied range of nonparametric techniques now incorporated into statistical software—but, as Terence Mills shows, such a superficial investigation can lead to interpretations that deeper data analysis shows to be flawed.