Intelligent Aggressiveness: Using Forecast Multipliers,Hybrid Forecasting,Fare Adjustment,and Unconstraining Methods to Increase Revenue*

Many studies have begun the exploration of airlines using intelligent aggressiveness (IA) in unidimensional directions (e.g., forecast multipliers alone). This article uses the sophisticated passenger origin–destination simulator (PODS) to examine the revenue impact of four different IA levers—forecast multipliers, unconstraining, hybrid forecasting (HF) and fare adjustment (FA). We also explore the impacts in two different origin–destination networks. Due to the competitive nature of PODS (two or four airlines competing) and its allowance for customer choice, we are able to assess all the implications, including the impact of spill, upgrades and recapture. We find that with a single IA lever, independent of the network and demand level, in a more‐restricted fare environment, the optimal lever is almost always HF with moderate‐to‐aggressive estimates of willingness‐to‐pay, with revenue gains of 0.4–4.3% in a large global network, and gains of 1.7–4.2% in a domestic network, depending on demand level and optimization method used. We also test two additional, less‐restricted fare environments and find that revenue improvements have a wider range (0.8–6.3%) with a single lever in the larger network. Finally, we explore the impacts of allowing the competitors to use basic IA and the airline of interest to use multiple IA levers.     

The impact of the product mix on the value of flexibility

Product-mix flexibility is one of the major types of manufacturing flexibility, referring to the ability to produce a broad range of products or variants with presumed low changeover costs. The value of such a capability is important to establish for an industrial firm in order to ensure that the flexibility provided will be at the right level and used profitably rather than in excess of market requirements and consequently costly. We use option-pricing theory to analyse the impact of various product-mix issues on the value of flexibility. The real options model we use incorporates multiple products, capacity constraints as well as set-up costs. The issues treated here include the number of products, demand variability, correlation between products, and the relative demand distribution within the product mix. Thus, we are interested in the nature of the input data to analyse its effect on the value of flexibility. We also check the impact at different capacity levels. The results suggest that the value of flexibility (i) increases with an increasing number of products, (ii) decreases with increasing volatility of product demand, (iii) decreases the more positively correlated the demand is, and (iv) reduces for marginal capacity with increasing levels of capacity. Of these, the impact of positively correlated demand seems to be a major issue. However, the joint impact of the number of products and demand correlation showed some non-intuitive results.     

MANAGING ACADEMIC INTERDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH PROJECTS*

This field study provides variables that can be used by practitioners as action levers and by future researchers as the basis for theoretical development. Conclusions from relevant literature and findings from interviews with interdisciplinary research management identified forty variables that were viewed as important to interdisciplinary research project success. After adjusting the data for reliability attenuation, these variables were further analyzed to identify the best prediction equation. The findings suggested that project age or the longevity of the project and open discussion of disagreements were the best predictors of performance.     

Strategic Information Sharing in Competing Channels

We investigate strategic information sharing in two competing channels. The retailer in a channel can ex post decide whether to share private demand information with his upstream manufacturer after the content of information becomes known. We find that a retailer discloses low demand and withholds high demand to induce lower wholesale prices from his manufacturer. We show that a retailer should share less information when the retail market becomes more competitive, but should disclose more information when his capability to acquire information improves. When a decentralized supply chain competes with an integrated channel, we show that firms in the supply chain benefit from the rival channel's effort to improve information capability, that the incentive for the retailer in the supply chain to improve his information capability increases with the intensity of competition and with the rival channel's information capability, and that the retailer may not want to pursue perfect information acquisition even when doing so is costless. Extensive numerical studies demonstrate that similar results also hold for two decentralized supply chains competing with each other.     

In‐Store Experiments to Determine the Impact of Price on Sales

This paper describes an experimentation methodology to measure how demand varies with price and the results of its application at a toy retailer. The same product is assigned different price‐points in different store panels and the resulting sales are used to estimate a demand curve. We use a variant of the k‐median problem to form store panels that control for differences between stores and produce results that are representative of the entire chain. We use the estimated demand curve to find a price that maximizes profit. Our experiment yielded the unexpected result that demand increases with price in some cases. We present likely reasons for this finding from our discussions with retail managers. Our methodology can be used to analyze the effect of several marketing and promotional levers employed in a retail store besides pricing.     

Safety Stock,Excess Capacity or Diversification: Trade‐Offs under Supply and Demand Uncertainty

Firms mitigate uncertainty in demand and supply by carrying safety stock, planning for excess capacity and diversifying supply sources. In this study, we provide a framework to jointly optimize these three levers in a periodic review infinite horizon setting, and in particular we examine how one can reduce inventory and capacity investments through proper diversification strategies. Observing that a modified base‐stock inventory policy is optimal, we find that the capacity‐diversification problem is well behaved and characterize the optimal mix of safety stock, excess capacity and extra number of supply sources. We find that higher supply uncertainty results in higher safety stock, more excess capacity, and higher diversification. But safety stock and diversification are non‐monotonic in demand uncertainty. Our results can be extended to situations in which suppliers are heterogeneous, and can be used to develop effective heuristics.     

一种基于知识供需匹配的预案应急能力评价方法

作为应急响应的行动指南和法律依据,应急预案的应急能力,即其提供应急知识的程度,直接影响应急响应的效果。基于此,从知识供需匹配的角度提出一种评价及诊断预案的方法。该方法从需求的角度建立突发事件应急管理一般流程和应急知识的层次结构,获取突发事件应急响应所需的知识;从供应的角度分析应急预案所提供的知识,将应急预案的内容作为解决问题的答案,通过反问的方式获取预案提供的应急知识;通过供需2个方面的知识匹配来评价和诊断预案。与传统的综合评价结果不同的是,该方法能够有效地诊断出预案的不足之处,为修订和完善应急预案提供明确且有针对性的参考依据。     

Coping with Gray Markets: The Impact of Market Conditions and Product Characteristics

Gray markets, also known as parallel imports, have created fierce competition for manufacturers in many industries. We analyze the impact of parallel importation on a price‐setting manufacturer that serves two markets with uncertain demand, and characterize her policy against parallel importation. We show that ignoring demand uncertainty can take a significant toll on the manufacturer's profit, highlighting the value of making price and quantity decisions jointly. We find that adjusting prices is more effective in controlling gray market activity than reducing product availability, and that parallel importation forces the manufacturer to reduce her price gap while demand uncertainty forces her to lower prices. Furthermore, we explore the impact of market conditions (such as market base, price sensitivity, and demand uncertainty) and product characteristics (“fashion” vs. “commodity”) on the manufacturer's policy towards parallel importation. We also provide managerial insights about the value of strategic decision‐making by comparing the optimal policy to the uniform pricing policy that has been adopted by some companies to eliminate gray markets entirely. The comparison indicates that the value of making price and quantity decisions strategically is highest for moderately different market conditions and non‐commodity products.     

Clarifying the Effect of Intellectual Capital on Performance: The Mediating Role of Dynamic Capability

Recent studies suggest a potential relationship between intellectual capital and dynamic capability in achieving performance. This is unsettling for managers because these studies contain little effort to develop a framework for understanding the relationship. To examine this unnerving potential, we develop and test a theoretical model that explains how dynamic capability mediates the impact of intellectual capital on performance. In this study, the scope of intellectual capital includes human capital, relational capital and structural capital. This study examines the pooled data of 242 high‐technology firms from 2001 to 2008. Results from Bayesian regression analysis suggest that the effect of structural capital on performance is completely mediated by dynamic capability. Furthermore, the findings show that dynamic capability does not completely mediate the respective effects of human capital and relational capital on performance, but does so only partially. These results provide convincing support for the importance of dynamic capability through accumulating R&D and marketing capability over time, thereby enhancing firm performance. The empirical findings and the ensuing discussion will be of interest to managers and practitioners.     

基于竞争型制造商创新投入的零售商需求预测信息共享研究

本文考虑两个制造商的竞争,从创新投入的视角构建零售商需求预测信息共享模型,运用贝叶斯统计理论和斯坦伯格博弈方法,探讨了制造商之间的竞争和其开展的成本降低创新对零售商需求预测信息共享的影响。研究发现：（1）制造商的创新投入决策受竞争对手和零售商信息共享的双重影响。（2）由于两个竞争型制造商进行成本降低创新,存在一定的条件使得零售商可以通过免费共享需求信息而获利。（3）当制造商们的创新能力较强时,供应链能够自发达到完全信息共享状态。当制造商们的创新能力较弱时,零售商的信息共享价值为负,竞争型制造商可以通过支付信息共享费用来激励零售商共享需求预测信息。制造商支付的信息共享费用与创新能力、上游竞争强度、预测准确性和随机需求波动性正相关。本文的研究克服了Shang等（2016）关于上游竞争型供应链中零售商信息共享研究中未考虑制造商创新的不足,并进一步探讨了上游竞争型供应链中的信息共享激励机制。     

一类带有限制的网络瓶颈容量扩张问题

在一些物理网络中,当设施（边的容量等）建立后,由于需求增加,需要调整网络的容量来提高服务水平。调整优化的过程中既要考虑扩张成本,同时也要考虑需要调整的总边数,以尽可能小的影响人们的正常生活。本文研究对于一个给定的网络G,已知边e_i的初始容量和单位容量扩张成本,在预算成本和扩张总边数的约束下,如何有效地扩张边的容量至x_i,使得系统的容量最大,即max{min_ei∈T x_i,T是网络G中的生成树。首先求解两个与之相关的模型,然后通过分析两个相关模型与原问题之间的联系与区别,提出了原问题的多项式时间算法。最后,通过算例说明算法的步骤,并分析了不同参数值对系统容量的影响。     

非对称信息下闭环供应链回购契约应对突发事件策略研究

研究了非对称信息下一个制造商和一个零售商组成的两级闭环供应链在回购契约下的协调问题。在考虑零售商销售成本信息为非对称信息和随机性市场需求基础上,首先,分析了在正常状态下分散式系统决策情况,通过重新设计可变参数解决了信息不对称的问题,实现了回购契约下的信息共享和供应链的完美协调;然后,探讨了闭环供应链回购契约应对突发事件的协调问题。研究结果表明：当突发事件造成市场规模和制造商生产成本同时扰动时,闭环供应链的销售活动将受影响,闭环供应链的协调将被打破,而闭环供应链的废旧品回收活动却不受突发事件的影响。为此,给出了闭环供应链回购契约的应急决策。最后通过数值算例验证了结论。     

Portfolio-based airline fleet planning under stochastic demand

Airlines operate their fleet of aircraft over a relatively long time horizon during which the realized stochastic demand has the potential to profoundly impact the airlines’ financial performance. This makes the investment in a fleet of aircraft a highly capital-intensive long-term commitment, associated with inherent risks. We propose an innovative three-step airline fleet planning methodology with the primary objective of identifying fleets that are robust to stochastic demand realizations. The methodology presents two main innovation aspects. The first one is the use of the mean reverting Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process to model the long-term travel demand, which is then combined with discrete-time Markov chain transitions to generate demand scenarios. The second innovative aspect is the adoption of a portfolio-based fleet planning perspective that allows for an explicit comparison of different fleets, in size and composition. Ultimately, the methodology yields for each fleet in the portfolio a distribution of net present values of operating profit across the planning horizon and a list of key financial and operational metrics per year. The robustest fleet can be selected based on the operating profit generating capability across different realizations of stochastic demand. An illustrative case study is presented as a proof of concept. The case study is used to demonstrate the type of results obtained and to discuss the usefulness of the methodology proposed.     

供应链中断下顾客缺货反应对牛鞭效应的影响研究

传统的关于供应链牛鞭效应的研究,仅关注供应链上游成员间（供应商、制造商或零售商）的协调运作,而忽略缺货发生后顾客缺货反应对供应链动态性的影响。本文利用高层级Petri-net对包含两个制造商、两个零售商的供应链系统进行建模与仿真,定量地研究不同的缺货强度下顾客缺货反应对两条相互竞争的供应链牛鞭效应的影响。研究结果表明,顾客缺货反应对缺货品牌及其竞争品牌的牛鞭效应均存在显著影响,但各种缺货反应对牛鞭效应的影响程度有所差异,且供应链中断强度（主要体现为发生缺货的品牌市场份额以及缺货持续时间）亦对牛鞭效应产生显著影响。我们建议不同产品类型（对应不同的顾客反应组合）的管理者根据品牌的市场占有率、缺货持续时间等因素对不同类型的顾客进行购买行为的引导,以缓解牛鞭效应并保持市场份额。     

限制性行业中企业战略行为合法性研究:以中国汽车行业为例

基于战略的制度基础观,本文认为在中国限制性行业中,企业战略行为的变化主要受制于其所在的制度环境,企业在制度框架下所具备的合法性高低决定了其战略行为的变化情况。依照历史发展的脉络,我们采用离散事件历史分析方法,对我国20多家汽车企业在1980年代到1990年代之间的轿车合资行为进行了考察,发现企业的声望和能力是汽车企业取得合法性的两个重要因素。研究发现,限制性行业中影响企业合法性的因素与其它行业有所不同,而合法性高的汽车企业成为行业中战略行为改变的先行者。     

考虑制造商创新的供应链双向需求信息共享研究

本文考虑制造商创新,研究由一个制造商和一个零售商组成的两级供应链双向需求信息共享问题。制造商与零售商均拥有部分需求信息,且制造商进行成本降低创新,根据逆向分析求解方法分析制造商与零售商在均不共享、制造商单方共享、零售商单方共享、相互共享需求信息情形下的均衡决策,并分别通过求解制造商和零售商的事前利润来探讨制造商与零售商的需求信息共享价值。研究发现：制造商在四种需求信息共享情形下的创新投资增量均与获取的需求信息正相关,而与创新系数负相关。制造商的需求信息共享价值在制造商单方共享和互共享需求信息情形下总为负,在零售商单方共享情形下总为正。零售商的需求信息共享价值随着制造商创新能力的增强由负变正。本文在供应链双向需求信息共享的研究中引入制造商创新,拓展了相关研究,具有一定的理论价值和实践意义。     

模糊需求下的产品供给能力初步研究

相对于随机变量,用模糊变量描述市场需求的不确定性有时是一种更好的选择。传统上,可能性测度往往被认为是与概率测度平行的概念。然而,事实表明,在模糊集合论中正是可信性测度才扮演了概率测度的角色。供应链管理需要节点企业在产品供给能力与库存成本之间取得平衡,确定合适的产品供给能力是成功进行供应链管理的关键。基于可信性理论,提出了模糊需求下度量产品供给能力的概念,给出了计算产品供给能力(补给周期供给水平、产品供给率)的公式和算例,讨论了模糊需求隶属函数形状的改变对产品供给能力的影响。     

Revenue Management for Intermodal Transportation: The Role of Dynamic Forecasting

We study a joint capacity leasing and demand acceptance problem in intermodal transportation. The model features multiple sources of evolving supply and demand, and endogenizes the interplay of three levers—forecasting, leasing, and demand acceptance. We characterize the optimal policy, and show how dynamic forecasting coordinates leasing and acceptance. We find (i) the value of dynamic forecasting depends critically on scarcity, stochasticity, and volatility; (ii) traditional mean‐value equivalence approach performs poorly in volatile intermodal context; (iii) mean‐value‐based forecast may outperform stationary distribution‐based forecast. Our work enriches revenue management models and applications. It advances our understanding on when and how to use dynamic forecasting in intermodal revenue management.     

Liquidity planning in a small bank

Given a forecast of supply and demand for cash in each period of an infinite planning horizon, and with a known current portfolio, a policy is chosen to invest these cash supplies in securities of different maturities so that the demand in every future period can be satisfied by securities maturing in that period. The objective is to maximize the minimum of the excess over the planning horizon so that any illiquidity in one period is spread out over the entire planning horizon. Analytical solutions are obtained for single maturity and barbell investment policies. Feasibility and optimality conditions are determined for these policies.     

Adjusting MRP for dynamic differentiation of identical items for process customisation

In the make-to-order (MTO) environment, different customer orders often require similar products that share identical basic features but require different customisation processes. To achieve efficiency, these products are often manufactured in a group at the initial stages. A significant issue then emerges as to how to differentiate identical items at the intermediate stages so that they can be dispatched to different kinds of work centres for process customisation. This article adjusts the current material requirements planning (MRP) approach for the MTO mode. A yield-allocating approach is then proposed for adjusting the material demand plans according to real-time process quality information. An approach for dynamically differentiating identical customised items at intermediate stages is then presented. How to implement the proposed methodology in a computer-based environment is also briefly introduced. A case study demonstrates that the proposed methodology can fulfil the dynamical differentiation task and can result in more reasonable differentiation decisions than the traditional MRP approach.