Chance Constrained Programming Approach to Empirical Analyses of Mutual Fund Investment Strategies*

Chance constrained programming concepts are used to formalize risk and return relations which are then modeled for use in an empirical study of mutual fund behavior during the period 1984 through 1988. The publicly announced strategies of individual funds are used to form ex ante risk classifications which are employed in examining ex post performance. Negative relations between risk and return held in every year of the period studied. The bearing of these negative risk-return findings for the Bowman paradox, as studied in the strategic management literature, are thus extended from the industrial firms studied by Bowman (and others) and shown to be present even in these investment oriented mutual funds in each of the years of the great bull market from 1984 through 1988. Finally, our use of chance constrained programming enables us to separate risk from return behavior and evaluate their relative strengths as sources of these negative relations, which are found to be more in the returns than the risks.     

A review of research on the negative accounting relationship between risk and return: Bowman's paradox

A cornerstone in finance theory continues to be the positive relationship between risk and return in spite of Fama and French (The Journal of Finance 47(2) (1992) 427–65) and several later papers finding no relationship between the two variables. Twelve years earlier, Bowman (Sloan Management Review 1980, pp. 17–31) studied the same relationship from organization theory, achieving similar results with accounting data, and developing a whole research stream known as “Bowman's paradox”. This stream has contributed to some curious and interesting ideas that could also be applied to other different streams: new risk measures, managerial goal selection, response to the decline in the organization, diversification strategy on risk and return, among others. Similar to the financial stream, a number of researchers have tried to study this issue from the strategic management perspective. Their inconclusive results have generated a considerable controversy, keeping this research stream alive. In this work, we describe and explore this phenomenon from “Bowman's paradox”, theoretical explanations, criticisms and future orientations.     

Relative Performance Evaluation and Risk Taking in Delegated Investment Decisions*

Providing proper incentives to firm managers is increasingly important in the current competitive environment. Analytical research has suggested that evaluating a manager's performance relative to that of a peer group, in conjunction with standard-based pay, can induce efficient risk-sharing between firm owners and managers while maintaining the latter's incentives to exert effort. To date, direct empirical tests of this proposition have not been reported. This study uses a laboratory experiment to test the effect of relative performance evaluation on the risk-aversion of delegated investment decisions. Project-specific risk is operationalized using operating leverage, in part because the variability of a project's operating profits generally increases with this variable, and in part because many of the new manufacturing approaches held to be important to competitive advantage require significant capital investments and attendant increases in operating leverage. Across two levels of environmental uncertainty, subjects under a relative (as opposed to absolute) performance standard selected investments with significantly higher project-specific risk. Also, as environmental uncertainty increased, subjects under an absolute standard significantly reduced the riskiness of their investments. In contrast, subjects shielded from environmental uncertainty by a relative standard chose investments of about equal riskiness under both low and high uncertainty conditions. If supported by future research, these findings would suggest that relative performance evaluation may reduce managers' reluctance to adopt risky capital investments, especially in firms operating in high-risk economic or technological environments.     

Examining the Firm's Value Creation Process: A Managerial Perspective of the Firm's Value Offering Strategy and Performance

The primary pursuit of any business is to understand what customers value and to create that value for them. While customers are the final arbiter of value, it is the firm's role to explore, interpret and deliver value based on what they believe customers are seeking. Based on this premise we adopt the firm's perspective on value creation to extend both Bowman and Ambrosini's theoretical framework and the work of DeSarbo, Jedidi and Sinha and focus on two issues. The first is the strategic emphasis firms place on the design and delivery of their value offering. The second is the extent the firm's value offering explains performance differentials at the customer‐centric performance level. We present a conceptual model of how firms gain positional advantage via their value offering and the realized outcomes they achieve. We present two approaches to modelling the firm's value offering (type II and type IV models) and articulate the theoretical underpinnings and results for these models. Our results validate the conceptualization of the firm's value offering and suggest that creating superior value offerings enables firms to achieve superiority in customer‐centric performance.     

Converging trend of innovation efforts in high technology firms under paradigm shift—a case of Japan's electrical machinery

Japan's electrical machinery firms are typical high technology firms and have been playing a leading role in Japan's economic development. This is primarily due to the large amount of R&D investment motivated by technoprenuership leading to high level of technology stock. However, such a high level of technology stock has dichotomized the firms resulting in the converging trend over the last two decades.     

An organizational learning approach to digital and non-digital firm acquisition behavior

Drawing on organizational learning theory, this study investigates whether, and how, digital firms' characteristics can alter the determinants of exploration and exploitation activities through acquisitions. Considering that digital firms intrinsically differ from non-digital firms as regards their resource bundles, cost structure, and growth strategy, we argue that these distinctive characteristics can moderate the effects of slack resources and performance feedback on the propensity to conduct explorative and exploitative acquisitions. Comparing large, U.S. publicly traded digital and non-digital acquiring firms, we empirically show that consistent with our predictions, digital firms' characteristics mitigate the effects of slack resources and performance feedback on the propensity to conduct explorative acquisitions. Yet, contrary to our predictions, the findings also indicate that digital firms' characteristics reinforce the effects of these determinants on the propensity to conduct exploitative acquisitions.     

Linear and Nonlinear Valence Functions: A Behavioral Decision-Making Assessment

In Vroom's [45] original formulation of expectancy theory, the relationship between affect and perceived instrumentality was assumed to be linear. Others have suggested that such a relationship may be better modeled by a nonlinear, utility-type function [30]. The current research contrasts the predictive ability of two linear and four nonlinear functions. Using four levels of McClelland's [26] needs for achievement, affiliation, and power as instrumentalities, 101 subjects provided more than 12,900 decisions on the valences of jobs in a behavioral decision-making experiment. Nearly 40 percent of the subjects exhibited nonlinear valence functions. The results emphasize the need to specify the appropriate functional form of the valence component to enhance predictive accuracy and to prevent misspecification problems.     

适应性市场假说及其在中国资本市场的实证

金融危机近些年爆发频繁,传统市场理论如有效市场假说和行为金融面对复杂的现实金融世界未能给出合理解释.Lo提出的适应性市场假说则弥合了这两个学派的分歧,逐渐引起了学术界的重视.本文尝试从动态市场效率、时变贝塔和技术交易策略演变这三个角度对适应性市场假说能否解释我国资本市场进行实证研究.研究发现:我国股票市场效率在动态变化,无效的时段与金融危机或政策巨变等重大事件联系密切;股市风格指数贝塔随市场环境变化而改变;技术交易策略绩效随投资者适应环境变化而演变.研究结果表明,适应性市场假说相比有效市场假说和经典资本资产定价模型,能够更好地解释我国资本市场上述现象.最后对投资者如何根据市场环境变化制定适应性投资策略给出几点建议.     

THE ESCALATION OF COMMITMENT IN SEQUENTIAL DECISION MAKING: SITUATIONAL AND PERSONAL MODERATORS AND LIMITING CONDITIONS*

Two laboratory studies manipulated variables in order to observe their effect on the escalation of individuals' commitment to earlier investment decisions. The experimental results indicated that escalation of commitment to a failing course of action is not a general phenomenon. Information pertinent to the future prospects of reinvestment and to decision alternatives provided main effects. Neither study showed a main effect for initial success vs. failure. Decision-maker gender consistently influenced decisions in both studies through interactions with success/failure feedback and through the communicated attributions of “powerful others” regarding the causes of previous decision outcomes. Implications for theory and research are discussed.     

Antecedents of Innovativeness in Technology‐Based Services (TBS): Peering into the Black Box of Entrepreneurial Orientation

Innovativeness is the organization's capability for developing and introducing innovations. We argue that new combinations and recombinations of prior and new knowledge (by way of creating, assembling, and transforming knowledge) result in innovativeness in an organization. We further assert that a knowledge‐based focus on innovativeness is particularly important for firms that are technology‐based. The majority of studies focusing on innovativeness are in the entrepreneurship arena, and a large number of studies consider innovativeness as one of three dimensions of the entrepreneurial orientation (EO) construct, the other two dimensions being proactiveness and risk‐taking. However, recent research has suggested peering into the black box of EO by disaggregating the EO construct and examining the interrelationships among its three components. Hence, using the knowledge‐based view and drawing from multiple disciplines, our study conceptualizes innovativeness as a criterion variable and investigates the antecedent role of proactiveness and risk‐taking propensity on innovativeness in the context of technology‐based services (TBS). We hypothesize that both proactiveness and risk‐taking propensity exhibit a curvilinear relationship with innovativeness and introduce organizational structure formality as a moderator to further explicate these relationships. Our results show that proactiveness has a curvilinear (inverted U relationship) with innovativeness, and that this relationship is attenuated by organizational structure formality. Additional analysis indicates that in TBS firms, risk‐taking propensity has a positive linear relationship with innovativeness, and this relationship is accentuated by organizational structure formality. Finally, we discuss important conceptual and practical implications of our study and provide suggestions for future research.     

The Impact of Corporate Reputation on Firm Risk: A Panel Data Analysis of Spanish Quoted Firms

Researchers have traditionally addressed the influence of corporate reputation on firm performance, but have not considered the influence of corporate reputation on firm risk. This research develops hypotheses regarding the opposing influence of corporate reputation on a firm's systematic risk, unsystematic risk and total risk, as well as the moderation effect of firm size and industry concentration. Using a panel data method, these relationships are analysed, controlling for the effects of endogeneity, for a sample of Spanish quoted firms in the period 2001–2007. Specifically, two complementary analyses are performed. The first distinguishes firms included and not included in the MERCO index of the most reputable firms. The second analyses the impact of corporate reputation for the sub‐sample of most reputable firms. Being reputable reduces a firm's unsystematic risk and total risk, but increases systematic risk. In addition, firm size weakens these influences of corporate reputation on firm risk. However, among the most reputable firms, differences in reputation score have a lower effect on risk. Specifically, the corporate reputation level only influences firm unsystematic risk. It seems that what matters is not the degree of corporate reputation, but whether being or not being reputable is the question in terms of risk.     

Risk return approach to product portfolio strategy

This article describes how a risk-return portfolio analysis, as originally developed in economics and finance, can be applied to product-line decisions. This approach uses direct estimates of return, and explicitly considers risk, or variation in return; most of the product portfolio models in use today forecast return by correlation, and lack explicit treatment of risk. The approach provides guidance for new product development activities as well as for allocating resources among a corporation's existing product lines. The article explains how organizations can apply this approach to their own product portfolio decisions, and includes a detailed example of how one company used this model.     

Macroeconomic conditions and agribusiness profitability: An analysis using pooled data

Theoretical and empirical insights into the linkages between firm profitability and macroeconomic conditions are developed for nineteen agribusinesses. The hypothesis investigated in this analysis is that firm financial performance is a function of firm specific factors and macroeconomic conditions common to all firms. Seemingly unrelated regression with an unequal number of observations is used to estimate macroeconomic linkages. Empirical results indicate that macroeconomic conditions have differing affects on firm profitability dependent on a firm's financial structure and the market segment in which it operates. Capital intensive industries and highly leveraged firms have higher business risk and are more susceptible to macroeconomic conditions.     

A Structural Analysis of the Effectiveness of Buying Firms' Strategies to Improve Supplier Performance

Many manufacturing firms have increased the amount of component parts and services they outsource, while refocusing on their core capabilities. Outsourcing parts and services to independent, external suppliers means that suppliers' performance is increasingly critical to the long‐term success of these buying firms. Buying firms are increasingly using disparate supplier development strategies to improve supplier performance including supplier assessment, providing incentives for improved performance, instigating competition among suppliers, and direct involvement of the buying firm's personnel with suppliers through activities such as training of suppliers' personnel. Using resource‐based theory, internalization theory, and structural equation modeling, we examine the impact of these supplier development strategies on performance. We conclude that direct involvement activities, where the buying firm internalizes a significant amount of the supplier development effort, play a critical role in performance improvement.     

THE EFFECTS OF VARIABLE AND FIXED TRANSACTION COSTS ON OPTIMAL INVESTMENT DECISIONS

This paper studies the impact of variable and fixed transaction costs on investment decisions under conditions of risk. The decision model is first formulated as a mixed-integer nonlinear program. The following subjects are then examined: the structure of the investment frontier facing the investor and the effects of transaction costs on this frontier, the impact of transaction costs on the investor's optimal investment strategy, and the conditions for the equilibrium structure of risky asset prices and risk-return relationships. The main finding is that the relaxation of the assumption of the absence of transaction costs eliminates some of the most unattractive implications of the classic capital asset pricing model (CAPM) while preserving the more attractive implications of this model. Also, our model provides explanations for some discrepancies between the theoretical CAPM and empirical findings and, therefore, is a step toward narrowing the gap between theory and practice.     

The illusion of independence: Spun-off firms’ risk-taking as a function of status and attachment to the parent firm

This paper examines the post-divestiture behavior of spun-off firms. Drawing on the spin-off literature and middle-status conformity theory, we argue that spun-off firms—as newly independent and publicly traded firms—tend to limit their risk-taking behavior to match the expectations of a crucial audience, i.e., security analysts. Following the logic of middle-status conformity theory, we hypothesize that firms with mid-level status are particularly susceptible to analysts' pressures, whereas high- and low-status firms are free to take greater risks. Crucially, however, we propose that this relationship is less pronounced for spun-off firms that are more attached to their parent firms, as formal and informal linkages between these two types of firms can endure beyond the separation and limit spun-off firms' independence. Using a dataset of 102 spin-off transactions occurring between 1995 and 2010, we find empirical support for a U-shaped relationship between spun-off firms' status and risk-taking. This relationship is attenuated when spun-off firms are more attached to their parents. We contribute to the spin-off literature by demonstrating that a spun-off firm's post-divestiture behavior is determined by the capital market audience's expectations and the attachment to the parent firm. In so doing, we also contribute to the literature on middle-status conformity theory by identifying a boundary condition of the theory. Additionally, we make a methodological contribution by combining ideas from the spin-off and institutional theory literature to develop a particularly comprehensive measure of attachment.     

Fostering Risk Taking in Research and Development: The Importance of a Project's Terminal Value

Large firms face a conflict in managing a portfolio of high-risk projects. When an ongoing project is thought to have a low likelihood of success, project team members take risks to improve its chances of success. However, upper-level managers who allocate resources tend to withhold resources from a project with a low likelihood of success in favor of others in the portfolio that look more promising. Because this paucity of resources influences project team members to avoid risk, the total effect of success likelihood on risk taking is conflicted. The influence on risk taking of a project's terminal value—defined as the value that remains in the firm in the event of project failure—is unequivocally positive, because both senior management resource allocation and project team risk-taking propensity are encouraged by terminal value. Thus, firms can override the ambivalent effect of likelihood of success on project decision making by focusing attention on a project's terminal value.     

转型背景下企业有效应对组织复杂性的机理研究

如何借助不同类型的组织复杂性为企业创造效能已成为当前理论界及实践界研究的热点.本文基于文献研究提出了不同组织复杂性与组织效能的关系及影响这一关系的复杂适应性机理的假设.实证研究表明,转型经济环境下,结构复杂性与组织效能存在倒U型曲线关系,战略复杂性与组织效能存在U型曲线关系,目标复杂性与组织效能存在倒U型曲线关系;在复杂适应性的五个维度中,动态适应在组织复杂性与组织效能关系中起完全中介作用;自组学习及自主创新在这一关系中起部分中介作用;自发变革和柔性协作的中介作用不显著.研究结论对企业有效应对组织复杂性有重要指导意义.