Causality in the logic of decision

In recent years there has been an active debate between proponents of two different models of rational decision. One model is evidential decision theory, which is characterized by the fact that it holds the principle of maximizing expected utility to be appropriate whenever the states are probabilistically independent of the acts. The other model, causal decision theory, holds that the principle of maximizing expected utility is appropriate whenever the states are causally independent of the acts. The proponents of evidential decision theory include Richard Jeffrey and Ellery Eells, who claim that evidential decision theory has significant advantages over causal decision theory. In this paper I discuss the two main advantages which have been claimed for evidential decision theory, and show that in fact evidential decision theory does not possess either of these advantages.     

Rational preference: Decision theory as a theory of practical rationality

In general, the technical apparatus of decision theory is well developed. It has loads of theorems, and they can be proved from axioms. Many of the theorems are interesting, and useful both from a philosophical and a practical perspective. But decision theory does not have a well agreed upon interpretation. Its technical terms, in particular, utility and preference do not have a single clear and uncontroversial meaning.How to interpret these terms depends, of course, on what purposes in pursuit of which one wants to put decision theory to use. One might want to use it as a model of economic decision-making, in order to predict the behavior of corporations or of the stock market. In that case, it might be useful to interpret the technical term utility as meaning money profit. Decision theory would then be an empirical theory. I want to look into the question of what utility could mean, if we want decision theory to function as a theory of practical rationality. I want to know whether it makes good sense to think of practical rationality as fully or even partly accounted for by decision theory. I shall lay my cards on the table: I hope it does make good sense to think of it that way. For, I think, if Humeans are right about practical rationality, then decision theory must play a very large part in their account. And I think Humeanism has very strong attractions.     

Li as a Way to Order: The Intellectual Characteristics and Historical Role of Xun Zi’s Theory of Li

Abstract

To illustrate the overall content and historical significance of Xun Zi’s political philosophy, this paper proceeds as follows. First, it reviews previous research on ideas of li (ritual and social norms) and discusses why Xun Zi’s theory of li has been undervalued. Second, it briefly introduces my earlier study of this issue, The Confucian Quest for Order: The Origin and Formation of the Political Thought of Xun Zi. Third, it proposes an analytical framework that highlights the intellectual characteristics and historical role of li in the Xunzi. This framework analyzes li in the broad sense, differentiating between the theory of li, li as an institution and li as a way to the restoration of order. Fourth, it describes some intellectual characteristics of the Xunzi’s theory of li as a way to order. Based on these discussions, this paper argues that Xun Zi’s theory of li as a way to order is a political philosophy with a broad vision which goes beyond the framework of a single dynasty or state to cover the history and modes of existence of human society as a whole.     

Sensing Through White Gloves: On Congolese Objects in Swedish Sceneries

ABSTRACT

The article discusses collectibles acquired by Swedish missionaries and military officers active within the ill-reputed Congo Free State (1885–1908). Objects are approached here not primarily as tokens of Congolese material culture but as traces of a transnational cultural history and as points of entry to a critical museology. Drawing on case studies of collections I discuss the ways in which artifacts have been selected, joined and charged with new functions and meanings on their voyage between hands, narratives and genres.

In focus are five examples of objects that, analytically, have worked as what Roland Barthes (1980) calls punctum: the detail that disturbs and fascinates by force of seeming ungrammatical in relation to the larger context of which it forms part. By adding material to the Barthian concept I want to stress that such analytical impulses may be evoked by all senses. During an inventory of Swedish Congolese collections, when the historical state of stored museum items as untouchables could temporarily be broken, their multisensory material presences proved able to challenge textual discourses, serve as alternative witnesses and demonstrate hidden significances of ethnographical museums and collections.     

Preference stability and substitution of indifferents: a rejoinder to Seidenfeld

Seidenfeld (Seidenfeld, T. [1988a], Decision theory without 'Independence' or without 'Ordering', Economics and Philosophy 4: 267-290) gave an argument for Independence based on a supposition that admissibility of a sequential option is preserved under substitution of indifferents at choice nodes (S). To avoid a natural complaint that (S) begs the question against a critic of Independence, he provided an independent proof of (S) in his (Seidenfeld, T. [1988b], Rejoinder [to Hammond and McClennen], Economics and Philosophy 4: 309-315). In reply to my (Rabinowicz, W. [1995], To have one's cake and eat it too: Sequential choice and expected-utility violations, The Journal of Philosophy 92: 586-620), in which I argue that the proof is invalid, Seidenfeld (Seidenfeld, T. [2000], Substitution of indifferent options at choice nodes and admissibility: A reply to Rabinowicz, Theory and Decision 48: 305–310 this issue) submits that I fail to give due consideration to one of the underlying assumptions of his derivation: it is meant to apply only to those cases in which the agent's preferences are stable throughout the sequential decision process. The purpose of this note is to clarify the notion of preference stability so as meet this objection.     

Ambiguity,pessimism, and rational religious choice

Using a subclass of the α-maximin expected-utility preference model, in which the decision maker’s degree of ambiguity and degree of pessimism are each parameterized, we present a theory of religious choice in the Pascalian decision theory tradition, one that can resolve dilemmas, address the “many Gods objection,” and address the ambiguity inherent in religious choice. Parameterizing both the degree of ambiguity and the degree of pessimism allows one to examine how the two interact to impact choice, which is useful regardless of the application. Applying this model to religious choice is a move beyond subjective expected-utility theory, allowing us to show that a change in either the degree of ambiguity or the degree of pessimism can lead a decision maker to “convert” from one religion to another.     

Moral decisionism and its discontents

Decisionists use decision/choice concepts to understand and represent X: bees, Deep Blue, and Ron Carter make decisions. Explicit decisionists argue that X should be understood and represented using decision/choice concepts: it's correct to speak of bees', computers', and jazz improvisers' decision‐making. Explicit anti‐decisionists disagree: bees, computers, jazz improvisers, algorithms, and drug addicts aren't correctly understood and represented as decision‐makers. Sociologists look at decisionism and explicit decisionism as social phenomena, which show up in discourses, practices, technologies, and organizations. I make a contribution to the sociology of decisionism and the sociology of morality by examining three kinds of explicit moral anti‐decisionism: Murdochian, sociological/structural, and Confucian/Daoist. I show why these discontents are discontent, what theories and evidence they draw on, what assumptions they make, and how they conceive of morality without decision/choice concepts. Then, I consider how moral anti‐decisionism might matter, how the sociology of decisionism might matter, and where to go from here (if anywhere).     

A “Pseudo-endowment” effect,and its implications for some recent nonexpected utility models

This article describes a modification of the Allais paradox that induces preferences inconsistent with two conditions weaker than the independence axiom, namely quasi-convexity (a special case of which is the betweenness axom), and Hypothesis II of Machina (also called fanning-out). These violations can be formally derived from prospect theory by invoking a nonliner transformation of probability into decision weight.I would like to thank David Bell, Vijay Krishna, John Pratt, and especially Colin Camerer for helpful comments and criticism.     

From fun to fraught: marketing to kids and regulating “risky foods” in Canada

ABSTRACT

In an era of industrialized food production, ultra-processed foods, “Big Food” marketing, and growing obesity rates, food has come to be framed as an object of risk – and as an object of regulation. Such reframing has fascinating implications related to issues of responsibility and decision making, especially when it comes to children’s food. This article probes the relationship between representation, regulation and “risky” consumption with respect to children’s food. I examine how child-targeted foods become framed as “risky” and what counts as “risky” food messaging under Health Canada’s commitment to restrict the marketing of unhealthy foods to children. Detailing the tension between food as a risk object and food as a child object, I suggest how issues of semantic provisioning and the politics of the unseen work to complicate and destabilize the (seemingly) straightforward process of prohibiting unhealthy food marketing to children.     

Towards a second‐order view of child protection placement‐related decision‐making

Child protection workers are tasked with prioritizing and facilitating safe, secure and preferably, long‐term care arrangements for children and adolescents living within the child protection system. Recognizing the complexities associated with this task, this paper will propose that the application of theory – namely attachment theory and family systems theory – may aid in the conceptualization of placement decision‐making within the context of child protection practice. In particular, this paper will describe a framework entitled: Towards a second‐order view of child protection placement‐related decision‐making. This framework assumes the position that the ideals of relationship security and permanency of placement are more accessible in instances in which practitioners are able to locate themselves within temporary, stabilized but ultimately evolving systems. Specifically, the practitioner is encouraged to conceptualize where their individual selves, the broader child protection system and family system are located at any one point in time, whilst also identifying the direction in which these systems should be moving.     

Examination of the Child Protective Services Decision-Making Context with Implications for Decision Support System Design

Abstract

The general perception of Child Protective Services (CPS) decision making is that it is inconsistent and prone to error. As a result, risk assessment instruments were developed to enable investigators to make better decisions. The present study uses a qualitative approach with an explicit theoretical framework pertinent to management information systems and decision support system design to examine the context in which investigators operate and make decisions. The resulting information can be used to determine design requirements that would improve the experience of using a risk assessment instrument that serves as a decision support system (DSS) for CPS investigators.     

Third-generation prospect theory

We present a new theory of decision under uncertainty: third-generation prospect theory (PT³). This retains the predictive power of previous versions of prospect theory, but extends that theory by allowing reference points to be uncertain while decision weights are specified in a rank-dependent way. We show that PT³ preferences respect a state-conditional form of stochastic dominance. The theory predicts the observed tendency for willingness-to-accept valuations of lotteries to be greater than willingness-to-pay valuations. When PT³ is made operational by using simple functional forms with parameter values derived from existing experimental evidence, it predicts observed patterns of the preference reversal phenomenon.

Situational Crime Prevention and its Discontents: Rational Choice Theory versus the 'Culture of Now'

The rational choice theory of crime and its cognate field of study, situational crime prevention, have exerted a considerable influence in criminal justice policy and criminology. This article argues that, while undeniably useful as a means of reducing property or acquisitive crime, rational choice‐inspired situational crime prevention initiatives are limited when it comes to offering protection against a growing number of so‐called ‘expressive crimes’. Developing this critique, the article will criticize the sociologically hollow narrative associated with rational choice theories of crime by drawing on recent research in social theory and consumer studies. It argues that the growing tendency among many young individuals to engage in certain forms of criminal decision‐making ‘strategies’ may simply be the by‐product of a series of subjectivities and emotions that reflect the material values and cultural logic associated with late modern consumerism.     

Negotiation and Defeasible Decision Making

In economically meaningful interactions negotiations are particularly important because they allow agents to improve their information about the environment and even to change accordingly their own characteristics. In each step of a negotiation an agent has to emit a message. This message conveys information about her preferences and endowments. Given that the information she uses to decide which message to emit comes from beliefs generated in previous stages of the negotiation, she has to cope with the uncertainty associated with them. The assessment of the states of the world also evolves during the negotiation. In this paper we analyze the intertwined dynamics of beliefs and decision, in order to determine conditions on the agents that allow them to reach agreements. The framework for decision making we consider here is based on defeasible evaluation of possibilities: an argument for a choice defeats another one if it is based on a computation that better uses all the available information.     

Deciding to Institutionalize: Caregiving Crisis,Intergenerational Communication,and Uncertainty Management for Elders and Their Children in Shanghai

This phenomenological study integrated crisis theory, social identity theory, and uncertainty management theory to conceptualize the decision-making process around institutionalization among nursing home residents and their children in Shanghai. I conducted face-to-face, semistructured interviews with 12 dyads of matched elders and their children (N = 24). The findings suggest that caregiving crises triggered intergenerational communication about caregiving alternatives and new arrangements, although each generation had different stances and motivations. Children finalized the decision by helping their parents to manage the uncertainties pertaining to institutionalization. This study sheds light on caregiving decision-making dynamics for the increasing aging population across cultures.     

Examining Organizational Functioning Through the Lens of Complexity Theory Using System Dynamics Modeling

ABSTRACT

The methodologies associated with complexity theory might serve as an adjunct to some of our more traditional behavioral social science research methods. While the latter has a well-established history in social work, the approaches related to complexity theory are just now gaining a foothold. One such approach is system dynamics modeling. This article will describe the application of system dynamics modeling to a well-known early intervention program. The manner in which it complements traditional research approaches will be discussed, and its unique contribution to understanding the organizational aspects of complexity theory will be highlighted.     

Complementary properties of binary relations

After defining the complementary relation R of a binary relation R on a set X, this paper constructs the binary relation C (is a complementary property of) on the set P of nine well known elementary properties that R might possess. It deduces some theorems about C; especially that symmetry is the only one of these possible properties of R on X that is possessed by C on P. The set P may be enlarged to contain other elementary properties of R on X without changing the truth of these theorems, when the symbols of sets are properly modified. Finally, the paper discusses the desirability of a general theory of elementary properties of binary relations for the further development of statistical decision theory.     

Microfinance Participation and Women's Decision-Making Power in the Household in Bangladesh

ABSTRACT

This study draws from bargaining theory to examine whether microfinance, a range of financial instruments such as micro-loans to support micro-enterprises, affects women's participation in household decision-making operationalized by whether women play a role in household decisions about large purchases, small purchases, going out to meet friends and family, and health care among a nationally representative sample of 6,150 women between the ages of 15 and 49 years in Bangladesh. Bargaining theory suggests that decision-making in households is conflictual but conflict can be mitigated through bargaining. Central to bargaining power of women is control over resources, assuming that household decision-making involves making economic decisions. Logistic regression analysis was used to test the interaction effect of microfinance and control over resources on decision-making power in the household utilizing the nationally representative Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2011. Results revealed that microfinance participants with control over resources reported higher odds of decision-making power (OR = 4.3, p < 0.05) when compared to microfinance participants without control over resources (OR = 1.22, p < 0.05) but less than women who did not participate in microfinance but had control over resources (OR = 5.2; p < 0.05). In conclusion, control over resources play an important role in bargaining that increases odds of having decision-making power in the household, even for women who do not participate in microfinance. The study findings contribute to both social work practice and research on low-income populations as it allows an understanding of the importance financial access and financial know-how while it sheds light on how precarious women's lives can be as they navigate income-generating financial systems that interfere with gender norms, which may have negative consequences. These findings are particularly important for practitioners working in the area of women's empowerment who would do well to emphasize the need for building financial capability so that women are able to garner control over their own and familial resources, whether or not they participate in empowerment programs like microfinance, which in turn gives women voice and agency. Meanwhile, future researchers are well positioned to examine the kinds of specific skills that best predict increases in women's decision-making power in the household as well how gender dynamics play into the decision-making process.     

A decision theoretic model of the American war in Vietnam

This paper presents a decision theoretic model of the American side of the Vietnam war. That is, we only consider the U.S. government declared objectives and assign them utilities from that point of view. We assume that the involvement of the U.S. in this war was the outcome of a deliberate decision and, moreover, that this decision was taken on the basis of a careful weighing of goals and means. Hence decision theory is applicable in this case - and probably it was applied. We make hypotheses on the utilities of the goals and on those of the negative side effects. We also assess the probabilities of the four main possible courses of action available to achieve those goals: total war, advising, negotiating, and staying out. The total efficiencies of these turn out to be -0.30, -0.20, +0.51, and -0.11 respectively. This result explains why neutrality was not tried and why the advisory policy was eventually given up. But it does not explain why war, which has been not just inefficient but countereffective, was preferred over negotiating from the start or keeping neutral. Unless of course one assumes that the strategists either (a) paid no attention to any decision theoretic models or (b) used models that had fatal flaws. If the first alternative is discarded because of the prestige enjoyed by decision theory amongst American executives, we must conclude that the decision theoretic models employed by the U.S. high command had either of the following defects: (a) they ignored or underrated the negative side effects accompanying the implementation of every goal, or (b) they were not supplemented by mathematical models of the decisions likely to be made by the other side. In either case the decision to adopt the strategy with minimal expected utility was, at best, rational but extremely ill informed. It may have been one more victory of ideology over science.     

Helping each other: a peer supervision group with facilitators of mutual aid groups

ABSTRACT

Mutual aid groups can help people cope with life’s problems. A peer supervision group can help facilitators to better understand their role and improve their facilitating skills in mutual aid groups. Peer supervision groups aim to support facilitators ability to reflect on their difficulties in working with groups, deepen their methodological questions, and improve their understanding regarding how to best proceed as facilitators. This paper studied a peer supervision group of experts-by-experience facilitators to demonstrate the dynamics of mutual aid that characterized the group’s functioning.