INFLATION AND ASYMMETRIC OUTPUT ADJUSTMENTS BY FIRMS

Using ordered probit analyses of a unique micro data set, we find evidence of output asymmetry that is systematically related to inflation and to price asymmetry. As predicted by theory, firms are more likely at higher rates of inflation to raise prices in response to positive cost and demand shocks and less likely to lower prices in response to negative cost and demand shocks. The expected effects of higher inflation on output asymmetry, however, come primarily from cost and demand increases and to a lesser (and statistically insignificant) extent from cost and demand decreases. (JEL E3, D4)     

Unequal returns to social capital: the study of Malays in Singapore through a network lens

Using the concepts of ‘social capital deficit’ and ‘return deficit’, this study considers the social network aspects of social disadvantage among Malays in Singapore, as compared to Singaporean Chinese. Analysing a 2005 representative survey, we find Malays have less social capital than Chinese, a social capital deficit partly explained by their lower educational attainment. We find no return deficit in earnings: that is, every additional unit of social capital increases earnings equally for Chinese and Malays. However, we find return deficits in education: every additional unit of social capital (e.g. ties to educated parents) increases educational attainment more for Chinese than Malays. In all, this study offers a social capital explanation for Malay ‘plight’, complementing the more conventional explanations of human and economic capital.     

Perceived inflation and expected future prices in different currencies

Five experiments were conducted to investigate whether perceived inflation and expected future prices are influenced by the nominal representation of increases in product prices in different currencies. In contrast to previous research demonstrating overestimates of the perceived inflation of product prices after the transition of the domestic German Mark to Euro [Greitemeyer, T., Schultz-Hardt, S., Traut-Mattausch, E., & Frey, D. (2005). The influence of price trend expectations on price trend perceptions: Why the Euro seems to make life more expensive? Journal of Economic Psychology, 26, 541–548; Traut-Mattausch, E., Schultz-Hardt, S., Greitemeyer, T., & Frey, D. (2004). Expectancy confirmation in spite of disconfirming evidence: The case of price increases due to the introduction of the Euro. European Journal of Social Psychology, 34, 739–760], the price increases were of normal magnitude (5% and 8%) and a larger set of prices was used including small weekly expenses, prices of durables, and rent. All experiments were conducted in Sweden (not member of the European monetary union) employing undergraduates who volunteered to participate in class settings without any financial compensation. The price increases were expressed in the same currency, either actual currencies (Swedish Crowns or Euros) or fictitious currencies with different units. In general inflation was underestimated, to a larger extent when the currency or the product prices were unfamiliar than familiar. It was also shown that product-specific price changes made it difficult to perceive inflationary price increases. Only marginal effects of currency unit were observed.     

Frequency of price increases and perceived inflation. An experimental investigation

The effect of frequency of subjective experience of price increases on perceived inflation, i.e. the subjective experience of general price development, is investigated. The paper presents a two-phased psychological model of perceived inflation: first, information about product price increases is gathered in daily purchase. Second, these are integrated into one perceived inflation judgment. In the integration phase, the complexity of the task should trigger heuristic processing: higher frequency of price increases should enhance their availability and thus perceived inflation. Participants simulated purchases in two scenarios. Frequency of products with increased prices was varied while overall expenditure increases as well as relative price increase of individual products were balanced. Experiment 1 presented a high frequency condition with a majority of increased prices relative to previously learned reference prices and a low frequency condition with a majority of stable prices. Experiment 2 balanced cognitive effort for product price change estimation over conditions by replacing absolutely stable prices with slightly increased prices. As predicted, perceived inflation was higher with high frequencies of increased prices, while price increases of individual products were judged correctly. Experiment 3 ruled out the alternative hypothesis that presentation duration, which in the previous experiments correlated with presentation frequency, might have been the determining factor.     

Food Prices,Government Subsidies and Fiscal Balances in South Mediterranean Countries

Soaring food and energy prices sparked the revolts in Northern African countries at the end of 2010. This article investigates empirically the impact of world food prices on inflation and government subsidies for Algeria, Egypt, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, the occupied Palestinian territories and Tunisia during the ten‐year period 2002–11. Its findings reveal an asymmetry in the response of consumer‐price inflation to shocks in world food prices that made inflation rise fast while nominal rigidities prevented it from falling. Moreover, it shows that government balances deteriorated to 2% of GDP in 2008 and 2011 owing to the incremental government food subsidies, while they hardly improved in value terms when world prices fell sharply in 2009.     

Perceived inflation: The role of product accessibility and attitudes towards inflation

Little is known about the psychological mechanisms underlying judgments of perceived inflation as empirical evidence is sparse. In two studies, we investigated two factors that are expected to play a significant role in global judgments of perceived inflation: product accessibility and attitudes towards inflation. In Study 1 (N = 253), primed participants retrieved five products whose prices had increased (or decreased) in the past year before expressing a judgment of past inflation (versus non-primed participants with no retrieval task). In Study 2 (N = 101) participants were merely exposed to a series of products, and asked to estimate their frequency of purchase, before judging past inflation. In one condition, the prices of the majority of products had actually increased in the last year, while in another condition they had decreased. In both studies, attitudes towards inflation were also measured. Product priming consistently affected inflation judgments in the direction of an assimilation effect. Also, more negative attitudes towards inflation were associated with higher judgments of perceived inflation. Path analysis confirmed that both product accessibility and attitudes are potential bases for judgments of perceived inflation. These findings suggest that multiple psychological influences may underlie global judgments of perceived inflation.     

Perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation: A review and conceptual framework

Drawing on relevant literature from a diverse range of academic disciplines we present a conceptual framework intended to further our understanding of perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation. Based on this framework, we provide a detailed review of the literature and an analysis of open issues in current research. The review is primarily concerned with individuals’ perceptions and expectations of price changes and inflation, which can influence individuals’ economic behaviour (e.g. spending and saving decisions). The main insight from the review is that while consumers may have a limited ability to store and recall specific prices, and even succumb to a number of biases in the way in which they form perceptions and expectations of global price changes, they do seem to have some feel for, and ability to judge and forecast, inflation. How they achieve this, however, is still an open question, although plausible explanations have been proposed. While much important research has been undertaken and significant progress made in our understanding of the psychology of inflation, there remain many unanswered questions and interesting avenues for future research, which are discussed in the final part of the paper.     

Relationship Between Government Size and Trade Openness: Evidence from Pakistan

In this paper the effect of trade openness on government’s role in the economy is investigated in Pakistan using data for the period 1947–2009. The results demonstrate that there is a significant positive association between trade openness and government size. The explanation appears that as openness increases the size of government will inflate. This association is robust to the inclusion of a wide range of control variables and model specifications. The results support the compensation hypothesis and imply that government consumption plays a risk-reducing role in Pakistan. The empirical findings also highlight the role of other variables in determining the government size. Government size increases with income, democracy, foreign debt and investment, while it decreases with the increase in inflation and urbanization.     

Price perception and confirmation bias in the context of a VAT increase

This paper examines a potential confirmation bias in price perception in consequence to a real-world event and different explanations for such a confirmation bias. In a panel design conducted 2 months before and after a raise in value-added tax (VAT), 303 participants had to estimate the current prices for four products affected and four products not affected by this raise in VAT and the anticipated or recalled prices of these products. Before the VAT increase, an undifferentiated belief in strong future price increases was prevalent. After the VAT increase, a confirmation bias was found: in retrospect, participants reported price increases that were significantly higher than the official price development and in line with an undifferentiated belief in marked price increases. Two theoretical explanations for confirmation bias, i.e., the biased use of price information and the selective distortion of memory, fit the data.     

INTERNATIONAL PRICE BEHAVIOR AND THE DEMAND FOR MONEY

Oil prices, commodity prices and American monetary policy, the last operating through a variety of channels, have all figured prominently in explanations of the international inflation process in the late 1960s and early 70s. OUT major purpose in this paper is to test these various hypotheses. We do so in the context of a reduced-form rational-expectations price equation which we estimate for the United States and seven other industrial countries using quarterly data for the period 1955 through 1976.
The principal conclusion that emerges from this exercise is that movements in domestic money in these countries served as the key link in the inflation process. The factors that produced these monetary changes, however, differed among countries. Price shocks of various sorts were clearly of secondary importance.
The other important set of conclusions concerns the demand for money. In place of a traditional stock adjustment model, we used GLS with a second-order correction for autocorrelation. We believe this produced more plausible estimates of the parameters of the long-run demand function and of the adjustment process itself.     

INFLATION AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF PRICE CHANGES ACROSS MARKETS: A CAUSAL ANALYSIS

Recent advances in time series methodology are applied to the investigation of causal relationships between monthly changes in the consumer price index and changes in its dispersion across different consumption categories. This dispersion is associated with the degree to which relative prices are changing. Past inflation rates seem useful in forecasting changes in relative prices, but not vice-versa; there is also a significant contemporaneous correlation between these series. Hence, it is concluded that fluctuations in the inflation rate help cause fluctuations in relative prices, but not vice-versa unless the entire effect occurs within a month. The analysis also serves to illustrate a new way to implement the Granger causality concept.     

FISCAL POLICY AND TRADE ADJUSTMENT: ARE THE DEFICITS REALLY TWINS?

Since the mid 1980s, an extensive emprical literature has examined the relationship between U.S. Fiscal deficits, exchange rates, and trade balances. We investigate two questions that continue to spark debate: do increased government deficits casue doller appreciation, and do fiscal deficits lead to higher trade deficits (the popular ‘twin deficit’ notion)? We examine these issues fusing a five-variable VAR system, generating posterior probability bounds to assess significance. Our result provide some evidence that growing goverment deficits apperciate the dollar, and support the “twin deficit” notion that government deficits contrinute to trade deficits.     

Policy Disciplining Effect of Capital Account Openness in India

In this paper, the policy disciplining effect of capital account openness in India is examined by examining the impact of capital account openness on inflation and fiscal deficit. Multivariate modeling, which includes other relevant variables identified in the literature, is used for the analysis. Our results show capital account openness has a strong disciplining effect on inflation whereas it has no significant effect on fiscal deficit. In the case of fiscal deficit, trade openness and number of government changes only are the significant determinants. The moves of the RBI tend to reaffirm the disciplinary effect of capital account openness. In the meantime, since the mid 1990s, RBI kept a strict vigil over inflation and inflation expectations in the context of a more open capital account. One major reason for the problem concerning inflation expectation by RBI is the threat of capital outflow in the face of loose monetary policy and high inflation.     

STOCK RETURNS, INFLATION, AND REAL OUTPUT

This paper provides empirical evidence on the extent to which the inverse relationship between real stock returns and inflation in recent years is causal or spurious. The results indicate that this relationship is spurious and can be explained by the inverse correlation between unexpected inflation and unexpected real output. The expected and unexpected real output and inflation variables are generated from the ASA/NBER Business Outlook Surveys.     

Decision interactions of the monetary and fiscal authorities in the choice of policy mix

Abstract

This article presents an analysis of the states of equilibrium and Pareto optimality of the solutions in the monetary-fiscal games between the fiscal and monetary authorities each having either two or three qualitatively different strategies: expansive, neutral and restrictive. Two sets of assumptions about the influence, exerted by the instruments of the monetary policy (real interest rate) and by those of the fiscal policy (budgetary deficit related to the GDP), on the state of economy (rate of economic growth and inflation) are considered. The results obtained indicate that, along with the case of the prisoner's dilemma, to which the discussion in the major publications on the subject is limited, other situations may also occur, where the independent decisions of the central bank and the government do not necessarily lead to the choice of a Pareto non-optimal solution.     

The effects of prices on alcohol use and its consequences

Over the past three decades, economists and others have devoted considerable effort to assessing the impact of alcoholic-beverage taxes and prices on alcohol consumption and its related adverse consequences. Federal and State excise taxes have increased only rarely and, when adjusted for inflation, have declined significantly over the years, as have overall prices for alcoholic beverages. Yet studies examining the effects of increases of monetary prices (e.g., through raising taxes) on alcohol consumption and a wide range of related behavioral and health problems have demonstrated that price increases for alcoholic beverages lead to reduced alcohol consumption, both in the general population and in certain high-risk populations, such as heavier drinkers or adolescents and young adults. These effects seem to be more pronounced in the long run than in the short run. Likewise, price increases can help reduce the risk for adverse consequences of alcohol consumption and abuse, including drinking and driving, alcohol-involved crimes, liver cirrhosis and other alcohol-related mortality, risky sexual behavior and its consequences, and poor school performance among youth. All of these findings indicate that increases in alcoholic-beverage taxes could be a highly effective option for reducing alcohol abuse and its consequences.     

Interparental Violence and Nonverbal Abilities

Nonverbal decoding and encoding abilities of undergraduates were examined as a function of their self-reported history of interparental violence. Students exposed to domestic violence showed decoding and encoding deficits. Results for decoding revealed an emotion-specific deficit for recognizing happiness but no evidence for an advantage in decoding anger and fear. In contrast, students from violent homes showed overall deficits in posed encoding of emotions. There was no evidence for an emotion-specific encoding bias in the pattern of false negatives and no evidence for suppression of general expressiveness. Hence, it appears that the encoding deficit of students from violent homes is a result of inappropriate encoding. Results are discussed in terms of past theoretical explanations for the influence of family environment on nonverbal abilities.     

稳定物价、保障民生工作仍需高度重视——上海主副食品涨价影响调查分析

在世界经济复苏乏力、成本推动型通胀预期强化的大背景下,如何继续保持物价稳定,为结构调整和民生改善提供必要支撑,是上海转型发展过程中的重要议题。通过问卷调查发现,居民普遍感到2011年主副食品涨价幅度较大,给生活带来明显压力,同时对食品安全问题还有顾虑。政府稳定物价的各项政策措施也有待完善和巩固。鉴于此,本文提出进一步稳定物价的多项政策建议。     

Threshold Effects in the U.S. Budget Deficit

We contribute to the debate on whether the U.S. large federal budget deficits are sustainable in the long run. We model the U.S. government deficit per capita as a threshold autoregressive process. We find evidence that the U.S. budget deficit is sustainable in the long run and that economic policy makers will only intervene to reduce per capita deficit when it reaches a certain threshold. (JEL C32 , E62 )     

A POSSIBLE EXPLANATION OF THE MISSING DEFLATION PUZZLE

Following the Great Recession, despite large and persistent slowdown in economic activity, the fall in inflation was modest. This is known as the missing deflation puzzle. In this paper, we develop and estimate a New Keynesian model to provide an explanation for the puzzle. The new model allows for time-varying volatility in cross-sectional idiosyncratic uncertainty and accounts for changes in intermediate input prices. We show that inflation did not fall much because intermediate input prices were increasing. (JEL E31, E32, E52)