基于指数方法的中国劳动生产率增长实证分析

On the base of analyzing the shortcomings of produetion function, the author analyses the factors affecting the growth of productivity of China since the reform and opening up by using index method. The results show that 44.73% of the change of productivity is induced by the shift of employed persons between industries.     

地下资产存量价值变化的因素分解

The researchers often discussed that how to get the value of the stock level of sub-soil asset by net present value(NPV) when they considered the value of depletion of natural recourse in the past. They did not pay more attention to elements which impact the value of the stock level of sub-soil asset. This article introduces a general formula, then focuses on the impact of each element changes on the value of stock level of sub-soil asset in terms of quantity, it gives an illustrative example at the end.     

我国外资利用的经济增长效应——基于内生经济增长模型的分析

The flowing of foreign capital is related with the economic security of one countries. The experiencesand lessons of many developing countries show that the impact of the foreign capital to the domesticeconomic is often the most important factors of the financial crisis. So it is important to a analysis theforeign capital economic growth effect. Based on the endogenous economic growth model, this paper firstdistricts the three cases of the foreign capital impact and give the three factors of the foreign capitalaffecting to the economic path. The using the sample data of China, we analyze the three factors. Theresults show that all the three factor effets are all positive, which means that the foreign capital utility ofChina is efficiency.     

中国经济开始进入较快增长的上升通道——2002年回顾与2003年展望

2002 is the first year since China entered WTO. In the circumstance of the unstable and even decreasing recovery of world economy, the whole national economy of China shows a well-orientated developing trend, gets rid of the old model of "first half high, second half low". In 2002, the economy accelerates one season after another, the quality of development improves step by step. It is strengthened obviously the market-orientated self-grewth capability. The economic growth rate for 2002 will be nearly 8 %. Considering the developing trend of the economy, we can comprehensively infer that the Chinese economy will keep the trend of relatively high-speed development and the growth rate for 2003 will be above 7.5 %.     

我国市场调查与研究公司现状的调查分析

As an emerging industry with the amplitude prospect, the industry of market research and investigation should be a focus of attention in china. Firstly, this article analyzes the status of the development of the industry. Secondly, it puts forward some problems of the industry in China. Finally, it gives some countermeasures.     

国民福利核算的理论构造——绿色GDP核算理论的再探讨

After analyzing and exploring the definition of "national welfare" from the view angle of welfare quantity and welfare quality, the author raises both definitions of "nominal national welfare" and "real national welfare". The author also analyses the problem accounting the cost of external damage in the framework of national welfare accounts.     

FDI技术外溢的动态测算及原因解释

A dyanmic model of measuring technology spillover effects from FDI has been established in thispaper by introducing the adaptive expectation process into the original Feder model, and China' seconomic data are used to calculate the time-series of technology spillovers for China' s FDI. A furtherstudy demonstrates that the interaction of human capital and FDI well explains the changes of spillovereffects, while the degree of openness and the improvement of infrastructure also have a positive impact ontechnology spillover. However, it's hard to make certain the relationship between the technology gap,competitive intensity of domestic market and technology spillovers.     

城市低收入流动劳动力消费结构的实证分

The floating of rural surplus labor force play a significant role not only in increasing peasants' income, development and urbanization of the countryside, but also in the modernization of china. "Basket-carry" is the typical form of the floating of rural surplus labor force in Guizhou Province. As a weak group, their state of life evokes so much concern. The thesis studies on the state of consumption of Guizhou "Basket-carry' with the data of survey and different methods comprehensively. At last, some suggestions and measures are put forward.     

江西与中部省份发展状况比较研究

In a common sense, a transforming process of industrial structure is the process of the economicdevelopment. Firstly, this thesis reviews the past and the current of the industrial development in thecentral China after the PRC was established. Secondly, The thesis deeply analyses the reasons thatindustrial development of Jiangxi province lays behind the others in the central China in six aspects assystem, investment, level of opening-up, and so on. Finally, after realizing Jiangxi's present situation andusing the successful experiences on industrial development of developed countries and areas for reference,we pose six suggestions and measures to focus on accelerting to deyelop economy and upgrade industrialstructure of Jiangxi Province.     

Bootstrap方法在证券投资基金风险测量中的应用

 Bootstrap method will largely improve the accuracy of risk measurement, which be used to calculate the value at risk of securities investment funds. The application of the Bootstrap method with GARCH-based risk measurement model, not only consider the fund’s data auto-correlation and the time-variable variance characteristic, but also very well simulate the distribution of the residual. The theoretical analysis and empirical analysis indicate that this flexible parameter-nonparametric mixed risk measurement model can improve estimation precision of VAR.     

对“机会”的理解应予扩充

机会是统计学的基本概念,很多人归因于认识的局限性,这起源于传统的决定论思想.科学的进步已经揭示了某些不确定现象的绝对性和客观性,对机会的理解就不能局限于以前的范畴.而且人的认识并不能穷尽所有未知,应该更客观地把偶然性视为不可消除的事物属性之一.一百多年来的教育思想以决定论为基础,导致了学生思维的片面和简陋,不利于形成客观求实的世界观,在教学中应扩充对机会的理解,使之包含"尚未知"和"不可知".     

监测农村经济运行的新"武器"

随着中国加入WTO，各级领导对“三农”问题 日趋重视，而“三农”问题的核心又是农村经济发展问题。加入WTO后，我国农村经济的市场化和国际化程度将日益加深，原有的统计调查手段已经不能完全满足跟踪农村经济运行状况的需要。为了更全面地了解农村经济运行状况，前瞻性地指导农村经济发展，开展农村经济动态监测已经迫在眉睫。农调总队从2002年1月起开始农村经济动态监测网上调查，取得了一定成果，对分析农村经济形势起到了积极作用。新武器 新特点 农村经济动态监测就是应用常规统计和景气调查的方法，实时跟踪农村经济运行…     

Estimators for "the fraction of variance explained" in the one-way classification

This paper deals with the estimation of "the fraction of variance expiained" in one-way classification. A comparative study of two estimators for model II (random effects) is made by computing approximately their biases and mean-square errors in the balanced case. A similar study is made for model I (fixed effects) where we study one estimator and give asymptotic formulae for its bias and mean-square error.     

诚信--自己的"经济身份证"

诚信,就是诚实守信。古人素以信 守承诺、履约为荣。所谓“君子一诺,重于泰山。”我国古代商业文化最宝贵的传统,就是一个“诚”字。但在我们现代社会生活中,违反契约、言而无信等轻信寡诺的现象比比皆是,司空见惯。世纪初年,又逢加入WTO之际,值此伟大变革时代,细细盘点国人诚信实际,我们深感内心沉重。     

"另类指数"正解

指数掠影 提起指数，人们并不陌生。年轻人会一脸灿烂的冲你说：“指数，嗬，人气指数、恒生指数。”中老年人会回答你：“嗯，晨练指数、价格指数。”小学生会告诉你：“空气污染指数。”如果你向不同行业的人打听，你收罗到的有关指数的信息，将自成一个百花园。 显然，作为专业术语的指数，已经平民化了。指数到百姓生活中，这是一件幸事。从不同年龄的人对指数的举例中，不难看出，指数与年轻人的娱乐、财富意识相连，与中老年人的保健、生活消费意识相连，与小学生的环境意识相连。人们知道，指数，它是一个衡量的标尺，就像温度…     

从“统计生态环境建设”看提高统计数据的质量

影响统计数据质量的因素是多方面的。提高统计数据质量不仅要改进统计的方法技术,还需要建设优良的统计社会环境,为统计提供良好的条件,所以应当重视“统计生态环境建设”的问题。“统计生态环境建设”包括有利于确保数据质量的思想观念环境、政府统计的体制环境、包含数据真实性的社会信用体系以及保障统计数据质量的法制环境。     

经济增长是否存在“贫困陷阱”

本文从OLG随机增长模型出发,使用中国城市数据估计参数化的产出运动方程,对人均实际产出分布的动态过程进行模拟预测。研究发现,尽管产出运动方程并非严格凹,但稳态均衡唯一,经济增长未出现"贫困陷阱"。长期来看,地区经济最终趋于单峰收敛,采用离差指数衡量经济发展平衡程度的结果显示,经济发展不平衡程度将有所下降。外生扰动(如技术进步、政策扶持)的持续性越强,经济增长收敛越快。     

用"三个代表"统领统计创新

江泽民同志的"七一"重要讲话,是一篇马克思主义的纲领性文献,通过前一阶段的认真学习,我深深感到,讲话在许多重大问题上创造性地提出了新思想、新论断.一是在解放思想方面,有新的发展.二是在党的性质概括方面,有新的突破.三是对新的社会阶层,包括个体户、私营企业主等入党问题,有进一步发展.四是关于党的最高纲领和最低纲领,也有新的发展.五是关于加强和改进党的建设问题,有新的要求.     

中国制造业出口如何突破“天花板约束”

在全球价值链分工条件下,出口存在着名义增长和真实增长两种情形。面临国内外环境深刻变化,当前中国制造业名义出口面临“天花板约束”,而破除约束的路径之一就是依托制造业服务化提升制造业出口国内增加值,实现真实出口增长。本文利用WIOD数据库,在整体和细分层面上测算了包括中国在内的44个样本经济体2000-2014年制造业出口内含服务增加值。研究发现,无论是整体还是细分行业层面,以出口内含服务增加值为表征的制造业服务化有深入发展趋势,但中国在样本经济体中排名较为靠后。进一步的相关性分析表明,制造业出口国内增加值率与制造业出口内含国内服务增加值呈显著正相关,而与内含国外服务增加值呈显著负相关。因此,破除出口“天花板约束”,依托制造业服务化对于中国制造而言具有广阔空间和余地,也是可行的路径之一,但需要区分制造业出口内含的服务增加值来源结构。即通过大力发展国内服务业尤其是现代生产性服务业,以弱化制造业发展对国外服务业的依赖,对确保上述路径可行具有极为重要的战略意义。     

从统计学史解析“自由度”概念

自由度是统计学中一个十分重要而又长期没有被圆满解释的概念。对此,从统计学史角度,对皮尔逊、费歇尔有关自由度问题争论原始文献细致考察,彻底澄清了自由度概念的内涵及与其相关的统计思想,弥补了Fienberg、Stigler与陈希孺已有解释的缺陷。研究表明：皮尔逊关于卡方检验中无论总体分布已知还是其来自于样本推断统计量都具有同一分布的错误判断,导致卡方检验的准确性出现偏差,这种偏差虽被同时代少数几个统计学家察觉但他们却无法解释其根源。费歇尔提出自由度概念并结合n维几何、假设检验与最大似然方法的论证不仅修正了皮尔逊的错误,也完善了从样本统计量估计总体参数的数理逻辑。