Bargaining over family size: The determinants of fertility in Brazil

Understanding how households make fertility decisions is important to implementing effective policy to slow population growth. Most empirical studies of this decision are based on household models in which men and women are assumed to act as if they have the same preferences for the number of children. However, if men and women have different preferences regarding fertility and are more likely to assert their own preferences as their bargaining power in the household increases, policies to lower fertility rates may be more effectively targeted toward one spouse or the other. In this paper, we test the relevance of the single preferences model by investigating whether men and women's nonwage incomes have the same effects on the number of children in the household. We find that while increases in both the man and woman's nonwage income lower the number of children in the household, an equivalent increase in the woman's income has a significantly stronger effect than the man's. In addition, we find that increases in women's nonwage transfer income have the strongest effects on the fertility decisions of women with low levels of education. The most important policy implication of our results is that policies aimed at increasing the incomes of the least-educated women will be the most effective in lowering fertility rates.     

Cohort Succession in the US Housing Market: New Houses, the Baby Boom, and Income Stratification

Federal housing policy in the US across the postwar period supported the construction of new houses more than public provision or renovation of older structures as a means of ensuring a sufficient supply of quality dwellings. Understanding trends in new housing in particular is thus crucial to understanding the housing regime. Following Myers (Housing demography: Linking demographic structure and housing markets. University of Wisconsin Press, 1990; Housing Studies, 14, 473–490,1999), this paper conceptualizes historical change in the housing stock within a demographic framework as the movement of cohorts of households through cohorts of housing stock. Recent evidence suggests that a new cohort of houses arose in the 1980s and 1990s (larger with more amenities than past vintages), and that buyers of those new houses were increasingly affluent. In this paper, I link the succession to a new cohort of houses to household cohort succession and examine the increasing affluence of new house buyers by age and cohort, focusing especially on the entry of the Baby Boom generation exactly when the new cohort of houses arrived. I use US Census microdata for 1960–2000 to develop a cohort longitudinal dataset, and analyze historical change in stratification in new house ownership. I find significant shifts between cohorts in income inequality among new house buyers, with implications for the capacity of the housing regime to meet the future needs of an increasingly diverse population.

Birth and Fortune Revisited: A Cohort Analysis of Underemployment, 1974–2004

The cohort is a key concept in the study of social demography and social change. The enduring influence of cohort membership can arise from history-based and/or size-based effects. The most prominent proponent of size-based cohort effects is Easterlin (Birth and fortune: The impact of numbers on personal welfare, 1980) who argues that individuals hailing from unusually large cohorts will experience adverse labor market conditions relative to the members of the smaller cohorts that bracket them. Drawing on data from the March Current Population Survey for the period spanning 1974–2004, we examine the influence of relative cohort size on underemployment. The results provide modest support for the Easterlin thesis, showing the odds of underemployment to be greatest among members of relatively large cohorts, net of other significant predictors. The results also show that the impact of relative cohort size differs by educational level, suggesting that adverse economic conditions produced by large cohort size can be offset by broader changes in the labor market and other social institutions.

Divorce law and family formation

Several studies have investigated whether unilateral divorce laws raised divorce rates, with mixed results. This paper asks whether unilateral, and no-fault, divorce laws influenced family formation. Besides their interest to policy makers, such effects may help theorists understand the mechanisms through which laws affect behavior. The results suggest that no-fault laws slightly reduced fertility, and unilateral divorce modestly increased divorce and legitimacy. However, the pattern of effects is not consistent with any of the hypotheses reviewed, and the estimated magnitudes suggest that changes in divorce law were not a major cause of changing family structure.      

Postwar trends in family size

Recognizing that postwar trends in family size derive both from changes in the living arrangements of adults and from changes in the presence of children, this paper develops annual estimates of mean family size, mean members less than 18, and mean members 18 and older by race, by family type, and by age of head. Group differences in the course and source of changes in family size are evident as anticipated on the basis of group differences in family structure, economic resources and life cycle stage.     

The impact of family policies on fertility in industrialized countries: a review of the literature

This paper examines the theoretical propositions and empirical evidence linking policies and fertility. More specifically, the analysis presented in this paper draws attention to the complex mechanisms that theoretically link policies and demographic outcomes: mechanisms that involve imperfect information and decisions that are rationally bound by very specific circumstances. As to the empirical evidence, studies provide mixed conclusions as to the effect of policies on fertility. While a small positive effect of policies on fertility is found in numerous studies, no statistically significant effect is found in others. Moreover, some studies suggest that the effect of policies tends to be on the timing of births rather than on completed fertility.

Attitudes toward family size and family planning in nairobi

In Nairobi, 352 married African adults, 152 men and 200 women, were interviewed on their attitudes toward family size and family planning. The respondents had, on the average, slightly less than three children at the time of interview and hoped to add slightly more than three children to this total. There was little difference in desired family size by sex.About one-half of both men and women had some knowledge of family planning methods, and there was a general interest (75 percent of the men and 90 percent of the women) in learning more. In addition, two out of every three men, and nine out of every ten women, approved of family planning, and even greater majorities of both sexes were willing to have the government of Kenya provide such services.In spite of their approval, however, only 13 percent of the men, and 2 percent of the women, had ever practiced family planning. These findings are broadly comparable to those found in other emerging nations and suggest that knowledge, interest, and approval generally precede use.     

The baby boom in New Zealand and other Western developed countries

The Baby Boom was undoubtedly one of the more emblematic events of the twentieth century. As it was a distinctly demographic phenomenon, it has been dissected by some of the most distinguished of demographers. Yet its greatest influence is not in demography, but in fields like marketing, pop-psychology, and even gerontology: the Baby-Boomers rather than the generation currently at reproductive ages are blamed for structural ageing. This paper questions aspects of Baby-Boom mythology. It asks how it has been measured: a boom suggests numerical volume, yet instead we measure flows. It questions whether the hegemonic model of the boom — the American one that has effectively delineated its parameters in Europe, Australisia and Japan, both among demographers and in the popular media — really does apply to other countries. It also asks whether or not Western Europes limited surges in births really qualify as booms in the strict sense of the term. Finally, it raises questions more in the field of the sociology of knowledge: the way the Baby Boom mythology has spread often in the face of counterfactual evidence. This paper is a revised version of the Australian Population Associations 2006 Borrie Lecture.     

Estimating optimal expenditures on family planning in developing economies

This paper develops an analytical model of the effect of family planningexpenditures on per capita income. The perspective is that of constrained optimization: a predetermined level of overall development resources is to be allocated to family planning programs and alternative uses in the form of expansion of the generalized capital stock (plant and machinery, education and training, and social infrastructure). The principal functions of the model are power forms, so that an explicit solution may be obtained for the optimal ratio of family planning expenditures to overall development resources. Important insights into the nature of this policy question are derived from consideration of the formula. In addition, tentative numerical estimates of the optimal ratio are presented for several developing economies. These estimates suggest that quite a substantial proportion of overall development resources should be allocated to family planning programs in most developing nations. The paper is concluded with a brief evaluation of the advantages and disadvantages of the optimization approach to population policy issues.     

Planned fertility and family background: a quantile regression for counts analysis

This paper examines how education and family background affect the fertility plans of young individuals in Mexico. Quantile regression for count data is used for the analysis. Results indicate that education and family structure affect planned fertility only at the tails of the conditional distribution. Education reduces planned fertility only among women with relatively strong preferences towards children. An absent father reduces planned fertility mostly at the bottom of the conditional distribution.

The transition to lower fertility in the West Bank and Gaza Strip: evidence from recent surveys

Using recent data from three national-level surveys conducted in 1995, 2000, and 2004, we provide evidence that Palestinian fertility rates in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, historically among the highest in the world, began to slow especially in the West Bank, but stalled in Gaza during the recent Intifada. The TFR in the early 2000s was 4.6 per woman, down from 6.2 a decade earlier. However, most of the decline in Gaza’s fertility appears to have taken place during the early 1990s, before the onset of the second Intifada. In Gaza, the TFR decreased from 7.4 to 5.7 during the 1990s, but changed only slightly to 5.6 during the second Intifada period. Surprisingly, contraceptive prevalence has not changed during these years, and the transition to lower fertility was mainly due to changes in nuptiality. Demand for children remains high, although there is evidence of unmet need for contraception. The continuing conflict and worsening economic situation provide clues to the persistence of high fertility among Palestinian women.

The effects of family caps on the subsequent fertility decisions of never-married mothers

Family caps seek to reduce fertility among welfare recipients by denying additional cash assistance to recipients who have children while on welfare. A necessary condition for family caps to be an effective policy tool is that welfare recipients respond to financial incentives in making decisions that affect subsequent fertility outcomes. This paper uses data from the 2001 and 2004 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP) to examine whether welfare mothers respond to the incentive provided by the Aid to Families with Dependent Children/Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (AFDC/TANF) system in determining whether or not to have a second child. The results show no evidence that family caps have an effect on the subsequent childbearing of never married women.

我国已婚育龄人群避孕水平及避孕方法使用趋势

利用中国20世纪60年代到2004年的全国计划生育调查数据,深入分析我国已婚育龄人群避孕水平及避孕方法的使用趋势。结果表明,我国一直是全球总避孕水平最高的国家,避孕方法以长效措施为主。90年代后,主要避孕方法中宫内节育器现用率逐年上升,女性绝育逐年小幅下降,男性绝育逐年明显下降,避孕套现用率逐年递增,口服避孕药、外用避孕药和其他避孕方法呈逐年下降趋势;且避孕方法的选择存在省市、城乡差异。     

Population growth with variable family size

The Sharpe‐Lotka continuous time deterministic model of population growth is developed to take account of some possible forms of mother‐daughter fertility association, characterised here by a bivariable measure, A. This leads to a linear double integral equation for which, subject to certain conditions, a finite time solution can be found by Laplace transform methods and thus also model specific results relating the intergenerational fertility effect to the long term population growth rate and magnitude are established. The quantitative implications of the theory are illustrated by a consideration of a general bilinear form of A and in this context numerical results illustrating the finite time growth and also the long term distribution of fertility levels in the stable female population are obtained. In particular, it is shown that different fertility specific subpopulations can coexist indefinitely.     

Economic determinants of family size in West Africa

The economic theory of fertility postulates that income and prices, broadly defined, are important determinants of family size. What follows is an attempt to test this theory against the behavior of 717 predominantly urban households in Sierra Leone. Husband's education is used as a proxy for income; the "price" of a child is accounted for by wife's education and wife's wage rate. Other important variables are wife's age, a measure of child "quality," wife's age at first birth, and child mortality. The findings of the study tend to lend support to the economic theory of fertility but contain certain peculiarities which indicate a need for further research.     

生育理性和生育决策与我国低生育水平稳定机制的转变

自改革开放以来 ,我国人口生育率水平出现了迅速的转变 ,特别是 1 992年我国确立了市场经济为目标的经济改革以来 ,生育率水平更是进一步降低到更替水平以下。如果说 ,生育率的迅速转变是在国家计划生育政策干预下启动的 ,那么 ,在 1 990年代生育率的下降应该主要是社会和经济发展的结果。以市场经济为导向的经济改革和经济的迅速发展 ,已经为稳定我国城市地区人口低生育率水平提供了必要的经济条件 ,同时 ,制度、技术和文化等因素的变革已经为我国个人生育决策理性化创造了条件 ,低生育水平的稳定机制已经开始从政策控制为主转向群众自我控制为主的转变     

中国第三产业内部就业结构变动趋势分析

我国第三产业占GDP的比重和第三产业从业人员的比重明显低于发达国家,甚至也低于或接近于发展中国家的一般水平。研究第三产业内部四个层次各自占第三产业增加值的比重和占第三产业从业人员的比重,对于确定第三产业的发展方向和解决就业问题意义重大。通过比较发现:第一层次就业比重存在饱和点,但仍然能缓解就业的巨大压力,特别是批发零售和贸易餐饮业:第二层次是吸纳就业的主要力量,特别是金融保险业、房地产业、社会服务业;第三层次就业率较低;第四层次就业比重过大。