老年人口再就业问题浅析

<正> 老年问题是世界各国普遍存在的共同问题。在我国,随着老年人口绝对数和所占比重的增加,老龄问题也日渐突出,对此,人口学界和计划生育工作者曾作过一些有益的探讨。本文只就老年人口再就业谈点粗浅的看法。一、老年人口及其再就业状况为了对未来老年人口的再就业趋势有一个准确的了解,扼要地重述一下老年人口增长趋势和再就业情况是有益的。     

对韩国出生人口性别比变化的原因分析及其思考

2004年2月笔者对韩国进行了为期一周的考察,重点了解韩国女童和女性地位状况,其中韩国出生人口性别比的变化,特别值得我们分析和思考。 一、韩国出生人口性别比的现状 20世纪80年代中期是韩国人口历史上重要的转折点。韩国完成了人口模式的完全转变,并且达到了静态人口。随着工业化和城市化的快速发展,家庭规模日趋变小,生育水平降到了更替水平。     

吉林省德惠县老年人口生活来源、生活能力状况及其与年龄的相关分析

<正> 生活来源和生活能力是影响老年人口生活的两个最重要因素。进入老年期以后,人们的生活来源和生活能力都将发生较大的变化,这种变化是老年人口问题产生的直接根源。因此,研究老年人口问题有必要首先考察老年人口的生活来源和生活能力状况。本文根据吉林大学人口研究所1983年7月在吉林省德惠县进行的老年人口抽样调查所取得的有关数据,做一些初步分析。一、生活来源、生活能力状况及其分布特点     

控制人口与发展经济

根据历史唯物主义的基本观点,人口问题和经济问题互相影响,相互制约,它们之间有着密切联系。即经济状况决定人口状况,而人口状况又反作用于经济状况。马克思主义认为,是经济问题决定人口问题,而不是相反。研究人口现象、人口问题、人口规律,必须从一定的社会生产方式出发,并把它们放在生产力和生产关系、经济基础和上层建筑的矛盾运动中来考察,而决不能离开一定的社会经济条件,单纯从自然的生物学的角度或主观精神的(道德的)因素中寻求问题的答案。     

河南省老年人口状况与人口老化问题

人口老化是人口年龄构成变化的一个动态概念。它反映随着出生率和死亡率的下降,平均寿命的延长,老年人口占总人口的比重不断上升的一种趋势。近年来,随着我国高龄人口的增长,人口老化已成为社会普遍关心的问题。分析我省老年人口状况,对于科学地开展老龄工作,正确处理由老年人口增加所带来的政治、经济等方面的问题,有着重要的意义。为了更好地研究和探讨我省老年人口问题,现根据1982年人口普查和有关资料谈谈我省的老年人口状况和未来人口老化问题。     

韩国出生性别比失衡的影响

笔者曾在本刊1995年第5期上发表了《韩国出生性别比状况与研究》一文，介绍了韩国的出生性别比情况，在此继续介绍韩国出生性别比失衡在人口学、社会学、卫生和医疗以及经济等方面所产生的影响。其观点是否正确还需商榷，但我们可以由此了解西方学者研究出生性别比失衡这一人口问题的视角和思路。一、人口学意义上的影响．通过分析我们认为，导致韩国出生性别比失衡的原因主要有两个：一个是选择性流产；另一个是不同避孕方法的使用。南韩不断升高的性别比提出了两个人口学方面的问题。一个是家庭规模的下降是否是由于人为的对孩子性别干涉…     

90年代天津市青少年犯罪人口的构成及其变动

青少年犯罪问题是当今世界各国普遍关注的社会问题。 2 0世纪的最后 1 0年中 ,随着中国经济的迅猛发展以及社会关系的结构性嬗变 ,青少年犯罪状况也处于历史性的变动过程之中。为了对该期间青少年犯罪状况的基本过程有一个整体的趋势把握 ,本文依据天津市 90年代有关青少年犯罪的调查资料 ,对 1 0年中青少年犯罪人口的结构特征及其变动趋势进行如下的描述性分析。1　青少年犯罪人口的界定及有关调查的说明犯罪人口是一个国家或社会中特定的异质型的人口群体 ,它是依据国家刑事法律规范并通过刑事审判程序的确认而产生的特殊人口群体 ,依于刑…     

中国老年人口高龄化趋势及原因的国际比较分析

进入本世纪 ,在人口老龄化速度加快的同时 ,老年人口将呈现高龄化趋势。本文运用历次人口普查资料 ,对我国老年人口年龄结构及高龄老人规模变动趋势、成因及所带来的影响进行了分析。通过国际比较 ,对我国老年人口高龄化程度及高龄老年人口状况有一较客观的认识。与发达国家相比 ,我国老年人口高龄化进程在很大程度上受出生人口队列影响 ,同时死亡率下降的作用在逐渐增大。老年人口高龄化趋势将使孤寡老人及老年妇女问题尤为突出。     

昆明市1985年迁移人口性别状况分析

近几年来,随着城市经济体制改革全面深入的进行,大城市迁移增长人口的迅速膨胀所带来的问题和影响已为人们所关注。怎样认识和解决这方面的问题,特别是迁移人口性别状况对城市人口再生产带来的影响,对于城市的发展,城市人口规模的控制和预测都极为重要。为此,我们对昆明市1985年的人口迁移变动进行了较为全面的调查,基本上掌握了昆明市迁移人口的性别状况,为分析和研究迁移人口性别状况对昆明市社会经济发展的影响提供了依据,也为制订和实施昆明市人口发展的规划预测和人口政策提供了分析数据。 性别状况是人口再生产的自然基础。作为影响人口再生产的人口学因素的性别状况是我们分析迁移人口对昆明市社会经济各个方面影响的主要着眼点之一。而且,作为特定条件下的迁移变动人口,其性别状况又有特异性,其影响亦具有特殊的性质。     

中国老年人口健康预期寿命差异的分解研究

健康预期寿命是反映人群健康长寿的重要指标,健康预期寿命差异反映了一个国家或地区的健康不平等状况。利用多状态生命表分析了中国老年人口健康预期寿命在过去十余年间的趋势与变动,并通过夏普利值分解法测算了人口社会学等11类因素对老年人口健康预期寿命差异的具体贡献值。得到以下四项重要研究结论:第一,从2005年到2018年,中国老年人口健康预期寿命差异的程度略有增加,女性、农村群体相比对应群体差距始终较高;泰尔指数分解发现,组内不平等(而非组间不平等)是造成上述差异的主要原因;老年人口健康预期寿命的性别差异呈现出高龄老人缩小而低龄老人扩大的趋势。第二,婚姻状况是健康预期寿命变动最重要的影响因素,但影响程度呈现逐年下降趋势,反之,受教育程度的影响在逐年上升;进一步将11类影响因素归类后发现:"个体特征"是最重要的影响因素,"经济因素"和"行为因素"的重要性次之,"环境因素"的影响最小。第三,上述影响因素对中国老年人口健康预期寿命的影响总体呈上升趋势,分城乡、分性别后依然呈现出相同的特征。最后,各因素在不同城乡、性别、婚姻状态的群体中的影响存在异质性。     

Population growth,economic development and family planning

This report discusses research conducted to determine whether reduction in population growth rates contributed to the rapid economic growth of Indonesia, South Korea, Japan and Thailand. The 5-year research projects, jointly sponsored by the UN Fund for Population Activities, the Nihon University Population Research Institute, and the East-West Population Institute, concluded that development and family planning programs contributed substantially to fertility decline in these countries. The project examined 3 factors that influence the long-term productive capacity and growth of the 4 Asian economies: savings, the size of the labor force, and the quality of labor (measured by educational attainment). Available evidence indicates a strong positive contribution of population decline toward growth of savings, a growth in labor force concurrent with a decline in fertility rates which enables per capita income to rise, and an increase in 2ndary education enrollment ratios as fertility is lowered. Development factors by themselves explain no more than 1/2 of the decline in fertility observed, suggesting that family planning programs particularly in Thailand, South Korea and Indonesia since 1976 have had an important impact on fertility and economic development.     

The demographic transition in the Korean peninsula, 1910-1990: South and North Korea compared

North and South Korea have both experienced demographic transition and fertility and mortality declines. The fertility declines came later in North Korea. In 1990, the population was 43.4 million in South Korea and 21.4 million in North Korea and the age and sex compositions were similar. This evolution of population structure occurred despite differences in political systems and fertility determinants. Differences were in the fertility rate and the rate of natural increase. The total fertility rate was 2.5 children in North Korea and 1.6 in South Korea. The rate of natural increase was 18.5 per 1000 in North Korea and 9.8 in South Korea. Until 1910, the Korean peninsula was in the traditional stage characterized by high fertility and mortality. The early transitional stage came during 1910-45 under the Japanese annexation. Health and medical facilities improved and the crude birth rate rose and then declined. With the exception of the war years, population expanded as a function of births, deaths, and international migration. Poor economic conditions in rural areas acted as a push factor for south-directed migration, migration to Japan, and urban migration. Next came the chaotic stage, during 1945-60. South Korean population expanded during this period of political unrest. Repatriation and refugee migration constituted a large proportion of the population increase. Although the war brought high mortality, new medicine and disease treatment reduced the mortality rate after the war. By 1955-60, the crude death rate was 16.1 per 1000 in South Korea. The crude birth rate remained high at 42 per 1000 between 1950-55. The postwar period was characterized by the baby boom and higher fertility than the pre-war period of 1925-45. Total fertility was 6.3 by 1955-60. The late transitional stage occurred during 1960-85 with reduced fertility and continued mortality decline. By 1980-85, total fertility was 2.3 in the closed population. The restabilization stage occurred during 1985-90, and fertility declined to 1.6. In North Korea, strong population control policies precipitated fertility decline. In South Korea, the determinants were contraception, rising marriage age, and increased use of abortion concomitant with improved socioeconomic conditions.     

After the demographic transition: policy responses to low fertility in four Asian countries

In the low fertility countries of South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Thailand, policy-makers are concerned about the consequences of low growth. In South Korea, a family planning (FP) program was instituted in the early 1960s, and fertility declined to 1.6 by 1987. Rural fertility is still higher at 1.96, and abortion rates are high. 32.2% of fertility reduction is accomplished through abortion. South Korean population will not stabilize until 2021, at 50.6 million people. The elderly are expected to increase and strain housing, energy, and land resources. Government support for FP is being reduced, while private sector services are being enhanced. Government sterilization programs have been reduced significantly, and revisions in the Medical Insurance Law will cover part of contraceptive cost. Integrated services are being established. Many argue for an emphasis on birth spacing, child and family development, sex education, and care of the elderly. In Taiwan, replacement level fertility was reached in 1983. Policy in 1992 recommended increasing fertility from 1.6 to 2.1. The aim was to stabilize population without pronatalist interventions. Regardless of policy decisions, population growth will continue over the next 40 years, and the extent of aging will increase. In Singapore since the 1960s, the national government focused on encouraging small families through fertility incentives, mass media campaigns, and easy access to FP services. Fertility declined to 1.4 in 1988. Since 1983, government has established a variety of pronatalist incentives. In 1989, fertility increased to 1.8. The pronatalist shift is viewed as not likely to succeed in dealing with the concern for an adequate work force to support the elderly and economic development. In Thailand, fertility declined the fastest to 2.4 in 1993. The key factors were rapid economic and social development, a supportive cultural setting, strong demand for fertility control, and a successful FP program. The goal is to reduce fertility to 1.2 by 1996. Replacement level may be reached in 2000 or 2005. Future trends are not clear.     

韩国人口政策及其对中国农村人口政策的启示

韩国的人口政策经历了由控制人口增长的计划生育政策到鼓励人口增长的新人口政策的转变,成功控制了人口的快速增长。缓解了人口与经济、社会资源、环境之间的矛盾,但也引起了人口老龄化、出生婴儿性别比失调等一系列社会问题。这些社会问题如今也正在中国农村上演。如能借鉴立法先行、大力发展社会福利事业、善于运用经济杠杆等经验,对维持中国农村人口的低出生率,抑制出生婴儿性别比例失调和人口老龄化的加剧具有积极的意义。     

Female labour force participation and second birth rates in South Korea

In recent decades, while female labour force participation rates in South Korea have increased, the country’s total fertility rates have declined dramatically. This study explores the association between women’s labour force participation and second birth rates in South Korea over the period 1980–2006. An event-history analysis is applied to longitudinal data from waves 1–10 of the Korea Labour and Income Panel Study. The study shows that post-birth labour force participation significantly reduced women’s propensity for having a second child, whereas non-employment after first birth was associated with an increased propensity. Women with highly educated husbands had a higher likelihood of enlarging the family. Further, the second birth trend in Korea fluctuated in tandem with the country’s institutional and socio-economic development. The childbearing propensity of homemakers was especially sensitive to the business cycle.     

What's happening to marriage in East Asia?

This article presents an overview of marriage patterns in East Asia. Globally, marriage patterns are changing. In East Asia, cultural patterns are slowing the changes in attitude toward marriage that are occurring in the West. There are implications of changing attitudes for government planners. This issue of Asia-Pacific Population and Policy is based on a series of studies of marriage and family life in Japan, South Korea, and the US. Data were obtained from the 1994 Japan Survey on Work and Family Life; the 1994 South Korea Survey on the Quality of Life; and the 1992-94 US Survey of Families and Households. Findings are reported on marriage age, attitudes toward marriage, attitudes post-marriage, and work patterns during marriage. Both Japan and South Korea have below replacement level fertility and traditional gendered division of labor in the household. In South Korea, women who work 35 or more hours/week spend 31 hours/week on housework, while husbands contribute 14 hours/week. In the US, the equivalent figures were 26 hours for full-time working wives and 9 hours for husbands. In Japan, wives spent 30 hours on housework, while husbands spent 3 hours. Full-time work outside the home involved 57% of married women in Japan, 27% in South Korea, and 66% in the US. Notwithstanding the double burden, women in South Korea and Japan experience pressure from competitive school systems for their children. After-school academic programs are expensive. The trend is for greater reluctance to marry. Replacement level fertility is unlikely unless full equality is achieved in the family.     

韩国出生性别比失衡的公共治理及对中国的启示

韩国出生性别比呈现先上升后下降的态势,韩国出生性别比偏高的直接原因是性别选择流、引产,而传统文化是根源性的原因,韩国性别失衡带来一系列社会后果,影响了韩国的社会稳定;韩国政府出台了一系列旨在维护女童权益、反对歧视女性、提高女性地位的法律法规;韩国的公民社会也作出了许多有益的尝试,通过公共治理,出生性别比出现显著下降,而且女性地位得到较大提升;韩国性别比失衡问题的治理对中国解决相关人口问题有着重要的借鉴意义。     

俄罗斯远东地区国际劳务合作的发展分析

俄罗斯远东地区资源丰富 ,但人口密度很低。多年来 ,移民一直是远东地区人口增长的一个重要源泉。同时 ,前苏联也与古巴、朝鲜、越南等国开展劳务合作 ,以弥补劳动力不足。苏联解体以后 ,由于经济体制的变化以及俄罗斯经济的恶化 ,导致远东地区劳动力结构性不足。随着东北亚区域经济合作的发展 ,中俄在劳务合作方面具有巨大的潜力     

A look at Asia's changing youth population

This report summarizes findings from a recent East-West Center study on demographic and social changes among young people aged 15-24 years in 17 countries in East, Southeast, and South Asia. Nearly every country in Asia has experienced fertility decline. Decline began in Japan and Singapore during the 1950s, followed by declines in Hong Kong, South Korea, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, and China during the 1960s. Declines occurred during the 1970s in Indonesia, India, and Myanmar. A "youth bulge" occurred about 20 years later due to declines in infant and child mortality. This bulge varies by country with the timing and magnitude of population growth and subsequent fertility decline. The proportion of youth population rises from 16% to 18% about 20 years after the beginning of fertility decline and declines to a much lower stable level after several decades. The bulge is large in countries with rapid fertility decline, such as China. Governments can minimize the effects of bulge on population growth by raising the legal age at marriage, lengthening the interval between first marriage and first birth, and increasing birth intervals. School enrollments among adolescents are rising. In South Korea, the population aged 15-24 years increased from 3.8 to 8.8 million during 1950-90, a rise of 132% compared to a rise of 653% among school enrollments. It is expected that the number of out-of-school youths will decline from 5.1 to 3.6 million during 1990-2025. Youth employment varies by gender. Policies/programs in family planning and reproductive health will need to address the changing needs of youth population.     

韩国人口老龄化过程及其启示

韩国人口老龄化的过程与中国有很多相似之处,经历了20世纪50年代的高生育率和死亡率降低、60年代以后的生育率下降直到目前的超低生育率,韩国人口在世纪之交快速进入老龄化阶段。预计初婚年龄的升高、持续的低生育率和育龄妇女数量的减少将会使韩国人口进一步老化。快速的人口老龄化已经为韩国社会带来了一系列的经济和社会问题,应对老龄化带来的挑战成为国家面临的重大问题。韩国的老龄化过程、现状以及采取相应的对策,将对中国具有启示意义。