操纵性应计利润模型检测盈余管理能力的实证分析

本文运用统计模拟方法,通过测试各模型产生第一类错误和第二类错误的频率,比较基本琼斯模型、修正琼斯模型等七种常用的截面操纵性应计利润模型在中国资本市场的检验效果.检测结果发现,基本琼斯模型、修正琼斯模型和无形资产琼斯模型相对较优,它们所犯第一类错误和第二类错误的频率较小,但在收入操纵检测上,修正琼斯模型检验能力更突出;现金流量琼斯模型、非线性琼斯模型检验盈余管理的能力较强,但存在较为严重的第一类错误,易夸大上市公司盈余管理的程度;前瞻性修正琼斯模型计算复杂,第一类错误明显,检验盈余管理能力相对修正琼斯模型没有明显提高;收益匹配琼斯模型在费用操纵的检验能力上明显较弱.综合考虑,本文认为在中国证券市场上,分年度分行业回归的截面修正琼斯模型在模型的设定和盈余管理的检验能力方面表现更佳,建议未来的盈余管理实证研究以该方法为主.     

Can Independent Distribution Function as a Mode of Corporate Governance?: An Examination of the UK Life Insurance Market

This paper examines whether independent modesof distribution can act as effective externalmonitors of managerial action. Becauseindependent agents are owners of the clientlist, control of an essential cash-generatingasset is concentrated in the hands of informedpurchasers. A consequence of this concentrationis the ability of independent agents tochastise bad management by moving customers toalternative management teams. Therefore,insurance companies that use independent agentsshould exhibit lower levels of opportunisticbehaviour. By studying 42 UK life insurancecompanies over the period 1990–1997 this studyprovides evidence that independent agents doreduce life companies' free cash flow,managerial expenses and shareholder dividends,while increasing policyholders' reserves.     

公司持有现金和负债是相互替代的吗?

通过利用2001-2008年上市公司财务数据,采用GMM动态面板分析方法,研究了公司持有现金和债务比例的相互关系以及两者随现金流变动的变化规律。尽管总体样本表明,我国上市公司都存在显著的正的现金-现金流敏感性和负的债务-现金流敏感性,且现金持有和负债存在显著的替代关系。但是,在逐步考虑融资约束和对冲需求的条件下,公司持有现金和降低债务的偏好随之发生较大的差异和分化,而且,现金和债务的严格替代关系主要存在于未来现金流紧张的融资约束公司中。这些实证结果说明,我国上市公司既有与发达国家相似的持有现金与债务择机而变的现金流管理政策,同时也存在与我国资本市场不完善条件下自有的财务最优行为。     

Cash Flow Modelling and Forecasting in Capital Budgeting Under Uncertainty*

The subject of this paper is modelling and forecasting of cash flows generated by a capital investment. The paper proposes the application of autoregressive, moving average, and mixed autoregressive moving-average processes to capital budgeting. In addition, models for deterministic, stochastic and seasonal trends are considered. For each class of cash flows, analytical expressions are developed for the mean and variance of a project's net present value (NPV). Also considered are several equilibrium pricing models. For two of them, the forecasting methodology developed here is integrated into the pricing equation. Although the overall emphasis of the paper is on modelling and forecasting of cash flows, the implications for NPV pricing and risk analysis are also investigated. Several examples are used to illustrate the impact of particular cash flow models on the price and risk of a project.     

营运资本管理效率对公司盈利能力的影响——基于中国制造业上市公司的经验证据

本文使用2004-2006年我国沪深两市519家制造业上市公司作为研究样本,考察营运资本管理效率与公司盈利能力之间的关系.研究发现,公司盈利能力与反映营运资本管理效率的综合指标现金周期显著负相关,而且与现金周期的各组成部分应收账款周转期、存货周转期和应付账款周转期显著负相关.研究结果表明,管理层可以通过制定适当的信用政策和存货政策,将现金周期、应收账款周转期、存货周转期和应付账款周转期控制在合理的最优水平,实现营运资本的高效周转,提高公司盈利能力.     

A Data‐Driven Inventory Control Policy for Cash Logistics Operations: An Exploratory Case Study Application at a Financial Institution

A number of market changes are impacting the way financial institutions are managing their automated teller machines (ATMs). We propose a new class of adaptive data‐driven policies for a stochastic inventory control problem faced by a large financial institution that manages cash at several ATMs. Senior management were concerned that their current cash supply system to manage ATMs was inefficient and outdated, and suspected that using improved cash management could reduce overall system cost. Our task was to provide a robust procedure to tackle the ATM's cash deployment strategies. Current industry practice uses a periodic review system with infrequent parameter updates for cash management based on the assumption that demand is normally distributed during the review period. This assumption did not hold during our investigation, warranting a new and robust analysis. Moreover, we discovered that forecast errors are often not normally distributed and that these error distributions change dramatically over time. Our approach finds the optimal time series forecaster and the best‐fitting weekly forecast error distribution. The guaranteed optimal target cash inventory level and time between orders could only be obtained through an optimization module that was embedded in a simulation routine that we built for the institution. We employed an exploratory case study methodology to collect cash withdrawal data at 21 ATMs owned and operated by the financial institution. Our new approach shows a 4.6% overall cost reduction. This reflects an annual cost savings of over $250,000 for the 2,500 ATM units that are operated by the bank.     

PORTFOLIO MODELS WITH STOCHASTIC CASH DEMAND,BORROWING AND FIXED TRANSFER COSTS

Portfolio models of the Markowitz-Tobin type implicitly assume that the investor does not have to liquidate any part of his portfolio to meet some exogenous cash demand. Since liquidity needs can be an important factor in portfolio management, Chen, Jen, and Zionts [3] in a recent paper developed a model assuming stochastic demand for cash and the possibility of meeting the cash demand by liquidating one or more assets. However, borrowing is an important alternative to liquidating assets. This paper considers that possibility. Unlike Chen, Jen, and Zionts, this paper also considers the more difficult question of liquidation costs being partly fixed and partly variable. In order to make the consideration of borrowing and fixed transfer costs mathematically tractable, the problem is first cast in a framework different from that of [3].     

Cash flow models: A review

Cash flow management is concerned with the efficient use of the company's cash and short-term investments. Under stable economic conditions, this is a matter of deciding when to transfer assets and how much. The development of models designed to answer these questions is reviewed. More recently, emphasis has been placed on decisions concerned with operating conditions with the object of maintaining a level of cash flow in accordance with unstable conditions, in particular with a high rate of inflation.     

基于资金流服务商的供应链资金运作能力研究

高效的资金运作能力是决定一个企业乃至一条供应链成功的关键因素。本文提出了资金流服务商这一概念并重点分析了它所具备的两种资金运作能力:资金回收期压缩能力和采购资金占用压缩能力。在一个单周期的报童模型中,研究了资金流服务商通过给制造商提供这两种资金流服务能够给供应链整体收益带来的增大以及在这个过程中二者的利益分配问题。通过进一步比较这两种资金运作能力,验证了各自对于供应链的重要程度。     

Financial Innovation and the Transactions Demand for Cash

We document cash management patterns for households that are at odds with the predictions of deterministic inventory models that abstract from precautionary motives. We extend the Baumol–Tobin cash inventory model to a dynamic environment that allows for the possibility of withdrawing cash at random times at a low cost. This modification introduces a precautionary motive for holding cash and naturally captures developments in withdrawal technology, such as the increasing diffusion of bank branches and ATM terminals. We characterize the solution of the model, which qualitatively reproduces several empirical patterns. We estimate the structural parameters using micro data and show that quantitatively the model captures important economic patterns. The estimates are used to quantify the expenditure and interest rate elasticity of money demand, the impact of financial innovation on money demand, the welfare cost of inflation, and the benefit of ATM ownership.     

民营上市公司实际控制人与现金股利研究

实际控制人对上市公司的现金股利分配具有重要影响。本文以2004-2006年沪深证券交易所的民营上市公司为样本,对实际控制人与现金股利之间的关系进行了实证研究。研究结果证实,实际控制人通过IPO的方式获得上市公司的控制权同现金股利显著正相关,控制权与现金流权同现金股利显著正相关,控制权与现金流权发生分离和采用金字塔控制方式同现金股利显著负相关。而且,与通过非IPO的方式获得上市公司控制权的实际控制人相比,通过IPO的方式获得上市公司控制权的实际控制人其控制权与现金流权对现金股利的影响更加显著,控制权与现金流权发生分离和控制方式为金字塔时发放的现金股利更多。     

Risk control in maritime shipping investments

In this paper we extend the state-of-the-art stochastic programming models for the Maritime Fleet Renewal Problem (MFRP) to explicitly limit the risk of insolvency due to negative cash flows when making maritime shipping investments. This is achieved by modeling the payment of ships in a number of periodical installments rather than in a lump sum paid upfront, representing more closely the actual cash flows for a shipping company. Based on this, we propose two alternative risk control measures, where the first imposes that the cash flow in each time period is always higher than a desired threshold, while the second limits the Conditional Value-at-Risk. We test the two models on realistic test instances based on data from a shipping company. The computational study demonstrates how the two models can be used to assess the trade-offs between risk of insolvency and expected profits in the MFRP.     

顾客关系价值量化模型研究述评

客户关系管理最基本的问题是量化顾客关系价值,为此从顾客盈利性分析开始,回顾了顾客终身价值量化的3种模型:顾客保持模型、顾客转移模型和最优化模型,分析了各自运用的条件和环境,总结了顾客关系价值量化的3个核心环节:交易流的量化、利润流(或现金流)的量化和顾客资产的最优化,并提出了未来研究的方向和路径。     

终极控股股东超额控制与现金持有量价值的实证研究

文章以我国资本市场2002年非金融类A股公司为样本,实证研究了终极控股股东控制权与现金流权分离对公司现金持有量水平及其市场价值的影响.研究结果发现:(1)当终极控股股东为国有股东时,控制权/现金流权系数与现金持有量水平显著正相关;而当终极控股股东为非国有股东时,控制权/现金流权系数与现金持有量水平虽然正相关,但不能通过显著性检验.表明在两权分离的情况下,国有终极控股股东对高现金持有量水平具有较高的偏好;(2)当终极控股股东为国有股东,且其控制权与现金流权存在分离时,现金持有量的价值为0.769元;而当终极控股股东控制权与现金流权不存在分离或虽存在分离但终极控股股东为非国有股东时,现金持有量的价值为1.206元.从而表明在两权分离的情况下,国有终极控股股东对高现金持有量水平的偏好是一种控股股东利益侵占动机.     

International business taxation and the business cash flow tax

Investments and business profits are internationally mobile. Countries respond by tackling international profit shifting. As a result, the international allocation of taxable profits becomes an increasingly complex and costly issue. Reform proposals either address the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development approach to international profit allocation or target tax bases that are less mobile than profits. This paper investigates cash flow as a tax base. A business cash flow tax abolishes current accrual accounting and has the potential to block international profit shifting. Financing vanishes to become a tax-planning tool because the investments’ market return is tax free under a cash flow tax. Profit shifting via intra-group transactions is eliminated if the business cash flow tax is based on the country of destination principle. However, a destination-based business cash flow tax might distort the investment decisions of international groups.     

产品市场竞争与现金持有——基于高管变更的调节效应

以产业组织、公司财务和公司治理理论为基础,利用不同数据窗口下中国制造业上市公司的平衡面板数据,采用固定效应模型和广义最小二乘法分析产品市场竞争和高管变更与现金持有之间的长期关系.研究结果表明,相对于产品市场竞争的治理效应,产品市场上的掠夺风险对现金持有的影响占主导地位,使公司的现金持有随产品市场竞争程度的增加而呈现上升的趋势,但是当公司发生高管变更时,产品市场竞争对现金持有的影响更多地凸显为代理成本动机下的现金减持行为;高管变更在一定程度上对变更后续年度产品市场竞争与现金持有之间的关系具有显著的调节作用,使产品市场上掠夺风险对现金的正向影响减弱,公司的现金持有相应呈现降低的趋势.实践表明,有序的市场竞争、完善的经理人市场以及公司内部有效的治理机制对公司制定科学的财务决策具有重要的意义.关键调:产品市场竞争;高管变更;现金持有;调节效应     

The impact of tax uncertainty on irreversible investment

Traditional models of capital budgeting with taxes are based on deterministic tax rates and tax bases. In reality, however, there are multiple sources of tax uncertainty. Frequent tax reforms make future taxation of investments a stochastic process. Fiscal authorities and tax courts create additional tax uncertainty by interpreting current tax laws differently. Moreover, simplified models that anticipate the actual tax base incorrectly contribute to tax uncertainty as perceived by investors. I analyze the effects of stochastic taxation on investment behavior in a real options model. The investor holds an option to invest in an irreversible project with stochastic cash flows and stochastic tax payments. Pre-tax cash flows and tax payments are assumed to be correlated. Increased tax uncertainty has an ambiguous impact on investment timing. For low tax uncertainty, high cash flow uncertainty and high correlation of cash flows and tax payments, increased tax uncertainty is likely to accelerate investment. A higher expected tax payment delays investment. A higher after-tax discount rate affects investment timing ambiguously.     

控制权、现金流权与公司价值——基于企业生命周期的视角

本文以2005-2008年间我国752家上市公司为样本,借鉴现金流组合方法对上市公司所处生命周期进行界定,从企业生命周期的角度考察了不同性质的最终控制人控制权、现金流权及两权分离程度对公司价值的影响。研究发现,最终控制人控制权与公司价值负相关;而现金流权也与公司价值负相关,这与西方学者结论不同,主要是因为我国特殊的股权结构--第一大股东持有的股份多数为非流通股,导致了高现金流权并不能起到相应的激励作用;两权分离程度在成长期和成熟期越大会造成公司价值的降低,而在衰退期则有利于公司价值的提升;最终控制人为非国有性质的公司,相对于国有性质的公司在成长期和成熟期更有利于公司价值的提升,而衰退期则相反。     

A Framework to Analyze Cash Supply Chains

The Federal Reserve System of the United States is making changes to its cash recirculation policy to reduce depository institutions' (banks') overuse of its cash processing services. These changes will affect operating policies and costs at many institutions having large cash businesses and, in turn, impact cash transportation and logistics providers. This study provides the framework to study the cash supply chain structure and analyzes it as a closed‐loop supply chain. Additionally, it describes the cash flow management system used by banks in the U.S.     

Twenty steps to survive managed care.

The health care industry is in the midst of discounted, price-driven, managed care. Many older physicians, not wanting to practice in this environment, are opting for early retirement. Others sell their clinical practices to management companies or hospitals to avoid the economic reality of day-to-day financial management. Most of these private practices are losing money every year. However, there still are a large number of physicians who have not sold their practice. As capitation continues to grow, these physicians will experience severe cash flow problems unless their financial plight is addressed rapidly. If it is not, the resultant cash flow problems will cause accounts payable to grow. Twenty steps are outlined that a physician or group should take right away to maintain a healthy cash flow. These include: Instituting a nurse triage system, setting up an after-hours clinic, getting the co-pay at the time of service, implementing a patient satisfaction questionnaire, monitoring the capitation reports, and checking capitation lists.