Computer integrated manufacturing: a complex information system

To be successful in today's competitive global environment, manufacturers must be able to respond quickly to changes in the manufacturing environment. Automation technology makes it possible for manufacturers to have this essential capability. A conceptualized information system that integrates the programmable design of a product and its manufacture with both planning activities and the manufacturing process is described. The information system integrates the programmable automation technologies used in computer integrated manufacturing with engineering and business databases. The computer integrated manufacturing concept is expended to the concept of a computer integrated economy. The technological difficulties that arise when implementing a computer integrated economy are identified.     

REQUIREMENTS PLANNING FOR CONTROL OF INFORMATION RESOURCES

Producing reports assembled from files, records, and raw data is a major function of the computer in modern organizations. Transaction processing, records management, file organization, and data-base management are aspects of the information production function that have received a good deal of attention. But planning, scheduling, and controlling the production of information products have been neglected. For complex applications involving assembly of reports from multilevel information sources, the requirements planning model is suggested as an effective alternative to present methods. Thus, our suggestion is that the computer be used to plan, schedule, and control computer production of information products. Presently available material requirements planning software may be employed with minor modifications that depend on the given information system characteristics. In this paper an example of requirements planning as applied to production of information in a satellite control system is presented.     

Early involvement in the design chain—a case study from the computer industry

This work presents a case study of how a design chain, with more than three tiers of organisations (customer, manufacturer, and supplier), can involve its members in the early stages of the design and development process to meet their needs more effectively. A vertical design chain model, consisting of strategy, process and information levels, is adopted to elucidate how a computer company can provide for different customers and use various suppliers to create synergy within the design chain. The results of this study demonstrate that the re-engineering of cross organisation product design flow, product data management software applications and the integration of information from various parties are critical to the early involvement in a vertical design chain. Based on this case study, the proposed early involvement model can shorten the time taken to develop new products and considerably reduce the number of engineering changes for various manufacturers.     

基于灰信息变元的泛函博弈模型研究

现实社会生活中存在局中人的博弈策略或收益值是变元（如时间、环境、空间、制度或相关其它变元）映射的一类博弈问题。本文从灰信息变元的角度给出了的泛函区间灰数的概念,设计了泛函区间灰数的表征形式,提供了泛函区间灰数之间的大小比较与运算法则。分析基于不确定信息的泛函博弈问题,并描述其形式与框架,可以展示不确定信息下博弈的特征、性质、战略表达形式。运用优化理论及其相关技术方法,设计基于不确定信息优化的求解算法,即通过研究和构造泛函博弈收益值的广义满秩扩充方阵求解最优博弈策略和博弈收益值问题,不仅为现实生活中的不确定信息问题提供新的解题思路,更为实际问题的解决提供新的方法参考。最后结合案例“盗版与打击盗版”问题通过计算机仿真对其博弈均衡结果进行详细的对比分析,说明了本文提出基于信息变元泛函博弈模型的科学性和计算结果的精确性。     

BAYESIAN MODELS FOR NEW PRODUCT PRICING

This paper develops an information decision system for new product pricing based on Bayesian updating of prior estimates of demand distribution parameter values and on optimization by dynamic programming. The model considers the interaction of production and pricing decisions and emphasizes the simultaneous making of both decisions. After presentation of the basic model, approximate techniques are introduced which obtain most of the benefit of the approach while requiring only a fraction of the computer cost and input data. Numerical examples using growing demand and price sensitivity are given to demonstrate the high computer cost of the first model and the relative performance (on a profit basis) of the approximate techniques.     

Framework for Evaluation of Physiologically-Based Pharmacokinetic Models for Use in Safety or Risk Assessment

Proposed applications of increasingly sophisticated biologically-based computational models, such as physiologically-based pharmacokinetic models, raise the issue of how to evaluate whether the models are adequate for proposed uses, including safety or risk assessment. A six-step process for model evaluation is described. It relies on multidisciplinary expertise to address the biological, toxicological, mathematical, statistical, and risk assessment aspects of the modeling and its application. The first step is to have a clear definition of the purpose(s) of the model in the particular assessment; this provides critical perspectives on all subsequent steps. The second step is to evaluate the biological characterization described by the model structure based on the intended uses of the model and available information on the compound being modeled or related compounds. The next two steps review the mathematical equations used to describe the biology and their implementation in an appropriate computer program. At this point, the values selected for the model parameters (i.e., model calibration) must be evaluated. Thus, the fifth step is a combination of evaluating the model parameterization and calibration against data and evaluating the uncertainty in the model outputs. The final step is to evaluate specialized analyses that were done using the model, such as modeling of population distributions of parameters leading to population estimates for model outcomes or inclusion of early pharmacodynamic events. The process also helps to define the kinds of documentation that would be needed for a model to facilitate its evaluation and implementation.     

SIMULATION OF INFORMATION CHOICE

Beginning with the information economics framework and a multi-period decision model [15], this paper considers the use of computer simulation methods within an information system choice environment. Actual decision behavior is replaced by optimal decision rules, and simulation is used to evaluate the effects of parameter changes in the environmental model. Simulation is shown to be functional (1) in estimating the value of alternative information structures within a fifteen period decision model and (2) in providing sensitivity and statistical data which would be useful both for different decision maker utility functions and for a variety of information system design questions.     

The fastest itinerary in time-dependent decentralized travel information systems

A travel information system (TIS) provides customers with information about transportation, transfers, and routings. A decentralized TIS is composed of autonomous subsystems and a central computer, where local subsystems have full control of their data and there is not a complete database in the central computer about the entire TIS. The transportation vehicles are scheduled. A travel itinerary from one spot to another contains the travel path and the schedule of transportations. The approach presented in this paper is for the central computer to identify the fastest itinerary across autonomous subsystems, based on the incomplete local information provided by the independent subsystems.     

The effects of self-efficacy on computer usage

This paper examines the effect of self-efficacy, belief in one's capabilities of using a computer in the accomplishment of specific tasks, on computer usage. It introduces an extended technology acceptance model (TAM) that explicitly incorporates self-efficacy and its determinants (experience and organizational support) as factors affecting computer anxiety, perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness and the use of computer technology. A survey of 450 microcomputer users in Finland found strong support for the conceptual model. In accordance with TAM, perceived usefulness had a strong direct effect on usage, while perceived ease of use had indirect effect on usage through perceived usefulness. Self-efficacy had both direct and indirect effects on usage, demonstrating its importance in the decision to use computer technology. It also had a strong direct effect on perceived ease of use, but only an indirect effect on perceived usefulness through perceived ease of use. Computer experience was found to have a strong positive direct effect on self-efficacy, perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness and usage. Organizational support and computer anxiety had only indirect effects on usage, mainly through perceived usefulness. Implications of these findings are discussed for researchers and practitioners.     

Limited Information and Advertising in the U.S. Personal Computer Industry

Traditional discrete‐choice models assume buyers are aware of all products for sale. In markets where products change rapidly, the full information assumption is untenable. I present a discrete‐choice model of limited consumer information, where advertising influences the set of products from which consumers choose to purchase. I apply the model to the U.S. personal computer market where top firms spend over $2 billion annually on advertising. I find estimated markups of 19% over production costs, where top firms advertise more than average and earn higher than average markups. High markups are explained to a large extent by informational asymmetries across consumers, where full information models predict markups of one‐fourth the magnitude. I find that estimated product demand curves are biased toward being too elastic under traditional models. I show how to use data on media exposure to improve estimated price elasticities in the absence of micro ad data.     

A comparative study of three methods of eliciting preference information

The study reported in this paper compared three methods of eliciting preference information from a decision maker and estimating weights with this information for use in a multiple objective decision making model. The design of the study included issues of implementing computerized interactive models vs more traditional question and answer techniques in the light of different decision models (in terms of level of complexity) and differing levels of decision maker experience. Results indicate that decision makers, regardless of prior exposure to computer terminals, are not intimidated by their use. Additionally, methods which required non-quantitative statements of preferences were preferred over techniques which requested numerical estimates of tradeoffs or marginal rates of substitution between objectives.     

Discretionary Use of Computers: An Empirically Derived Explanatory Model*

This study identifies variables that explain variations in computer use. Factor analysis of data gathered from 422 business administration faculty reveal eight themes among the independent variables. Seven of these factors significantly discriminate among non, minimal, and high users. These results suggest an empirical model for future studies and provide policy insights for decision makers seeking to stimulate computer usage. Additionally, the study shows that there is much commonality between the previously separate organizational innovation and information systems implementation streams. It also demonstrates that motivation theory may be a valid framework within which to study computer use.     

Key issues in managing information

In this article data, information and state of knowledge are described and then related to the decision-making process. The theme that data is a valuable commodity needing management is then developed. Then follows a section on computers, organizational policies and central and distributed processing. Some contractual aspects relating to procurement are described. Examples are given of actual applications in British industry, followed by discussion of two different issues, namely privacy and computer crime. The author draws the conclusion that ‘information’ per se is a personal, corporate and management asset which needs proper understanding and management in the computer era.     

项目管理能力拓展新思维探索

“蓝巢电力工程项目管理实训(简称:LEET)”按照多项目的企业组织管理模式规划项目管理参与者的角色和任务,将一个整体项目划分为前后相连的若干个阶段并在每一个阶段的结束点合理控制,使项目管理的核心管理活动以计算机管理信息系统方式实现,形成管理与信息的协同融合。     

A strategic model of communications demand

Strategic planning of telecommunications supply takes place in an increasingly turbulent environment due to factors such as the development of new and improved telecommunications services, the convergence of computing and telecommunications technologies and the emergence of the information society. This article is concerned with a model of future communications demand, developed under a research contract placed by British Telecom. The model describes dynamic trends in the supply and demand for communications products and services over a 30 year time horizon. Some key model features are outlined and an overview of the computer programme is given. The aim of the project was to provide decision-makers with a flexible, analytical tool for the exploration of policy issues and environmental impacts. The model should not be viewed as a forecasting tool but as an aid to structured thinking and the rapid assessment of alternative scenarios.     

HWME 中基于学习型组织的专家有效互动对话模型

应用信息技术和人工智能技术,研究专家有效互动规范的辅助实现. 结合人工智能领域 的对话研究成果,融合系统思考、深层次对话等社会思维技术,建立了嵌入人机交互界面、方便 系统处理的专家有效互动对话模型,确定了能提供丰富信息资源支持的专家有效互动空间 ———Intranet ,为社会思维的应用研究提供了一条有效途径.     

企业生命周期的系统动力学建模与仿真

从系统动力学角度研究企业生命周期变化中不同因素的影响.分析企业成长过程和主要影响之后,建立能够反映企业生命周期变化的因果关系图和动力学模型.用C#语言实现了系统动力学模型,验证了模型的有效性,讨论了模型的应用.仿真结果表明本文方法能够有效模拟企业生命周期的演化过程,并且能够为管理者进行企业组织管理与活力控制提供决策支持.     

Evaluating the Simplified Conjoint Expected Risk Model: Comparing the Use of Objective and Subjective Information

The simplified Conjoint Expected Risk (CER) model by Holtgrave and Weber posits that perceived risk is a linear combination of the subjective judgments of the probabilities of harm, benefit, and status quo, and the expected harm and benefit of an activity. It modifies Luce and Weber's original CER model—that uses objective information to evaluate financial gambles—to accommodate activities such as health/technology activities where values of the model variables are subjective. If the simplified model is a valid modification of the original model, its performance should not be sensitive to the use of subjective information. However, because people may evaluate information differently when objective information is provided to them than when they generate information on their own, the performance of the simplified CER model may not be robust to the source of model-variable information. We compared the use of objective and subjective information, and results indicate that the estimates of the simplified CER model parameters and the proportion of variance in risk judgments accounted for by the model are similar under these two conditions. Thus, the simplified CER model is viable with activities for which harm and benefit information is subjective.     

在线双向拍卖中的不完全信息博弈仿真研究

双向拍卖机制能较好地解决在线拍卖中如何有效利用网络资源、减轻网络负荷的问题,而构造双向拍卖的报价模型和策略是其重要内容之一。从实验经济学方法的角度,构造了在线双向拍卖中不完全信息博弈下存在的贝叶斯—纳什均衡并求解,通过计算机仿真详细分析了该模型的特点和可行性,为高效利用网络资源、提高在线拍卖效率提供了可行的思路。