The EKC Hypothesis Does Not Hold for Direct Material Flows: Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis Tests for Direct Material Flows in Five Industrial Countries

This study analyses the Environmental Kuznets Curve Hypothesis (EKC) with direct material flow data from the USA, Germany, Japan, the Netherlands and Finland in the years 1975 to 1994. Recently, there has been a discussion concerning the relevance of the EKC hypothesis suggesting that also the intensity of material use should decline with income growth. The EKC hypothesis has not been widely tested with direct material flow data, and this paper presents one of the first attempts to do such tests. The results of the empirical hypothesis tests indicate that the EKC hypothesis does not hold in the case of aggregated direct material flows among industrialised countries like Germany, Japan, the USA, the Netherlands and Finland.     

Social Metabolism and Labour in a Local Context: Changing Environmental Relations on Trinket Island

From a material and energetic perspective, this paper outlines the patterns of society-nature interactions of a local horticultural, hunter-and-gatherer population that lives on a remote island between India and Indonesia. Based on empirical research, we present several indicators to show an economic portfolio of a local society that combines horticulture, hunting and gathering activities with elements of industrialisation and market economy. In describing these environmental relations, the study narrows its focus to the use of three socio-ecological concepts, namely socio-economic metabolism, colonising natural processes, and the energetic return on investment. Using these concepts, we show the dynamics of social and environmental transformation at a local level and the consequences this may have for sustainability.     

区域城镇化进程与产业结构变迁动态影响分析--基于甘肃省的VAR分析

区域城镇化进程和产业结构变迁作为经济发展的重要方面,二者在经济发展过程中的存在着动态关联影响。基于甘肃省2000—2011年的时间序列数据,构建了城镇化和产业结构的VAR模型,实证分析了甘肃省城镇化进程和产业结构变迁间的动态影响,并从空间上对二者的相互影响进行了把握,得出甘肃省城镇化进程和产业结构变迁之间是动态影响的,但产业结构变迁对城镇化进程的影响强于城镇化进程对产业结构变迁的影响,在此基础上给出了措施建议。     

重庆市产业结构与就业结构变动关系的实证研究

在经济发展过程中,就业结构与产业结构之间存在着极为密切的互动关系。本文在分析改革开放以来重庆市产业结构与就业结构演变趋势的基础上,运用协整检验和广义最小二乘法测算了产业结构对就业结构的影响程度,计算了产业结构与就业结构的偏离度。研究发现,重庆市第一产业产值与其就业人数之间不存在长期的协整关系,其产值增长的同时并未带动就业人数的增加,反而对本已存在的剩余劳动力具有一定的挤出效应。第二和三产业对促进就业量的增长均具有积极作用,但第三产业吸纳劳动力就业的能力明显大于第二产业。     

Societal Metabolism and Multiple-Scale Integrated Assessment: Empirical Validation and Examples of Application

This paper presents empirical data to validate two points. (1) An integrated analysis of societal metabolism bridges an economic view of changes in socioeconomic systems with a biophysical representation of them. To obtain this check, it compares a biophysical indicator of development BEP with 24 traditional indicators of material economic development. The comparison covers a sample of 107 countries of the world, comprising more than 90% of the total world population (year 1993). (2) The concept of societal metabolism is useful to make biophysical analysts aware of constraints implied by economic viability and to make economic analysts aware of constraints implied by biophysical viability. To prove this point three practical examples of misunderstanding in the field of sustainability analysis are discussed.     

Multiple-Scale Integrated Assessments of Societal Metabolism: Integrating Biophysical and Economic Representations Across Scales

The crucial challenge for integrated analyses of socioeconomic systems is keeping coherence in their multidimensional representation. Our approach describes the hierarchical structure of socioeconomic systems using the profile of allocation of human activity over a set of compartments defined at different hierarchical levels (e.g., whole countries, economic sectors, individual households). Compartments are characterized in terms of intensive variables (intensity of both exosomatic energy flows and added value flows per unit of human activity) and the extensive variable Total Human Activity population. In this way, relations of congruence across hierarchical levels can be used to link non-equivalent analyses. That is, changes in demographic variables, economic variables, technical coefficients, indices of environmental loading, institutional settings, and social aspirations are no longer independent of each-other even if described within different scientific disciplines.     

我国产业结构高度的影响因素和变化探析

对产业结构高度的影响因素进行文献回顾后,利用误差修正模型和Chow检验对1978～2005年的经济数据进行实证分析。结果表明,产业结构高度与经济总量水平、技术进步程度、投资需求、消费需求、国际贸易结构和利用外资情况等影响因素之间存在着长期均衡关系,其中经济总量、技术进步和投资需求在短期内的影响更为明显,说明致力于这些因素的提高将促进我国产业结构高度的进一步提升。我国的产业结构高度以1992年为转折点发生了结构性的变化,说明我国市场经济体制改革对产业结构提升的重要性。     

产业结构与城市化:美国的“去工业化”和“再城市化”现象及其启示

美国 2 0世纪产业结构变化的突出现象是“去工业化”和与信息产业相关的新兴产业的崛起。伴随产业结构变化 ,人口区域分布也经历了“非都市转折”和“再城市化”的过程。产业结构的变化是城市兴衰的决定性因素。对我国来说 ,重视城市化发展过程中的产业支撑 ,根据区域发展格局的调整和产业结构的演进实施不同的城市化发展模式 ,尤为重要。     

The Changing Context of Fatherhood in Canada: A life Course Analysis

Arabs in Israel are a heterogeneous but largely underprivileged minority with a history of disadvantage in several domains, including education and employment. In this paper, we document changes in their attainment of various educational levels across cohorts born from the mid-1920s to the 1970s. We make comparisons among different Arab religious groups, between men and women, and between Arabs and the majority Jewish populations in Israel. We find that over consecutive birth cohorts, substantial ethnic differences in educational attainment have narrowed at the lower levels of schooling, but have increased at higher levels. Moreover, the results indicate that the disadvantage of Muslim Arabs in terms of entry into and completion of high school can be accounted for only partially by differences in the social status of their parents and characteristics of their neighbourhoods. The findings suggest that long-term historical differences among groups and discriminatory practices towards Arabs are important factors in explanations of disparities in educational attainment.     

大城市郊区流动人口聚集问题研究——以上海市青浦区华新镇为例

家乡的推力和流入地的拉力．促成了人口的大规模流动。流动人口在大城市郊区的聚集,引发了居住紧张的问题,并导致了一系列社会和环境问题。解决流动人口的居住问题,不能就事论事,单纯依靠市场或政府力量规范出租房市场,只会引发“恶性循环”。本文以上海市青浦区华新镇为研究对象,发现流动人口在华新镇聚居是当地低端企业的大量就业机会和低生活成本的吸引所致．因此产业结构升级才是根本的解决思路。     

香港产业结构变动对收入分配的影响——基于人口普查数据的分析

香港是全球发达的市场经济体之一,也是贫富差距最大的地区之一。本文主要采用香港2006、2001及2011年人口普查数据,并结合产业结构变动历史对香港产业结构变动如何影响收入分配的议题展开研究。本文认为,香港产业结构变动形塑了当前的行业、职业结构,决定了经济发展重心和未来发展方向。此外,经由教育途径,香港产业结构知识专业化的特征已日益凸显。由此,香港产业结构不但缔造了当地经济繁荣,同时通过行业、职业、教育等变量对香港收入分配产生了深远影响。作者期望,本研究的开展能为香港产业升级提供绵薄的科学参考依据,以此实现香港经济健康、可持续发展和收入分配公平的美好愿景。     

我国省际流动人口对产业集聚的反馈作用分析——基于第六次人口普查数据的实证分析

本文在梳理人口流动对产业集聚反馈作用机理的基础上,基于2010年“六普”数据从实证角度分析了我国省际流动人口对产业集聚影响.分析结果表明,接纳省际流动人口较高地区的产业集聚现象明显突出于“省际流动人口低流入区”,省际流动人口对我国产业集聚的反馈作用不容忽视.     

人口预测的方法比较——以生态足迹法、灰色模型法及回归分析法为例

人口预测是城乡规划的重要内容之一,本文以陕西省汉中市人口预测为例,运用生态足迹法、灰色模型法及回归分析法,对2015年汉中市总人口进行预测,并针对预测结果进行比较分析,得出：基于生态足迹分析的预测所得汉中人口规模偏大,其原因在于生态足迹分析的本质——环境容量;灰色模型预测所得结果较为保守,其原因在于原始数据序列经累加生成后发展趋势稳定;回归分析预测结果居于二者之间,其原因在于综合多种不同的回归模型,人口变化发展趋势较为灵活。     

流动儿童城市社会交往的逻辑——指向一种质量互释的混合研究

与其父辈不同,流动儿童的城市社会交往遵循独特的运作逻辑。从其城市生活的社会情境出发,学校类型、家庭教育与社区结构,都会影响到流动儿童与城市社会的接触机会、交往过程．从而产生不同的交往后果。学校在流动儿童城市社会交往中扮演着格外重要的角色,流动儿童的学校类型不同,其城市社会交往的逻辑迥异。在不同的学校空间,流动儿童建构出了不同的交往文化。公办学校的流动儿童获得了更多与城市儿童及其家长接触的机会,他们与城里人的交往频率也更高,因而更有可能冲破身份制度的藩篱,从结构上实现与城市的社会融合。民工学校流动儿童则正在经历从“文化再生产”到“社会再生产”的过程。     

外来务工人员转工再流动意愿的研究——基于珠三角的调查数据

在中国城市化进程中,人口流动主要表现为外来人口的再流动。本文通过对外来务工人员转工再流动意愿的研究发现,有相当多的外来务工人员有着转工再流动的意愿,且新一代外来务工群体比老一代更为强烈,转工是他们的一种流动表达方式,其本身就表现出一种个体的选择性及工作组织的排斥性。在影响因素的分析中,个人特征变量是影响外来务工人员转工再流动意愿的主导因素,组织性因素变量的影响效应相对较弱,这主要是因为外来务工人员无法从企业内部劳动力市场获得流动提升。     

人口结构转型、市场化与国际产业转移的叠加效应分析——对中国“人口红利”的新解读

对于我国经济持续30年高速增长这一举世瞩目的经济现象,本文试图寻找中国因素加以解释,认为中国两次特殊的人口政策导致的劳动人口扩张只有在“市场化”与“国际产业转移”同步条件下才能转化为“人口红利’’并支撑中国经济近30多年持续高速增长。本文通过建立多元回归模型验证了我们提出的经验性假说。     

人口、消费、年龄结构与产业结构对湖南碳排放的影响及其演进分析——基于STIRPAT模型

本文利用STIRPAT扩展模型,对1985—2007年湖南数据进行分析,探讨人口数量、人均消费、人口城市化、产业结构、老龄化对碳排放的影响,研究结果表明：人口数量、人均消费、城市化和老龄化驱动碳排放增长,而以产业结构表示的技术水平显著地抑制碳排放的增长：在不同阶段,人口数量、人均消费、人口城市化、产业结构、老龄化对碳排放的影响不同。人口数量的影响程度逐步降低,而人均消费和人口城市化逐步超过人口数量成为第二和第三驱动力．老龄化是驱动碳排放最主要的因素。针对各因素对碳排放的影响,本文提出相关政策建议。     

Truncated cross-sectional average length of life: A measure for comparing the mortality history of cohorts

Period life expectancies are commonly used to compare populations, but these correspond to simple juxtapositions of current mortality levels. In order to construct life expectancies for cohorts, a complete historical series of mortality rates is needed, and these are available for only a subset of developed countries. The truncated cross-sectional average length of life (TCAL) is a new measure that captures historical information about all cohorts present at a given moment and is not limited to countries with complete cohort mortality data. The value of TCAL depends on the rates used to complete the cohort series, but differences between TCALs of two populations remain similar irrespective of the data used to complete the cohort series. This result is illustrated by a comparison of TCALs for the US with those for Denmark, Japan, and other high-longevity countries. Specific cohorts that account for most of the disparity in mortality between the populations are identified.

Supplementary material for this article is available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2015.1019955     

中国征地农民养老保障制度的经济学分析

文章分析、比较征地农民各种养老保障模式的优势与劣势,认为现阶段应以社会养老保险作为征地农民养老保障制度的基础模式,以其它模式作为养老保险金的筹措渠道。到目前为止,各地区的征地农民社会养老保险制度尚不完备,这是因为制度的运行环境还不具备,仍存在很多问题,在此尝试给出了各种问题的解决方案,并强调政府应承担的责任。