Food Calorie Intake under Grain Price Uncertainty in Rural Nepal

This study evaluated the effects of grain output price uncertainty on the farm income of rural households and, consequently, how this uncertainty influenced caloric intake through changes in farm income. Using a national rural household survey data set in Nepal, augmented with output price uncertainty measures calculated from historical time-series data, we found that grain output price uncertainty (especially for rice and wheat) tends to decrease crop production income of rural households. In addition, we found that lower crop income from production decreases calorie intake of rural households. Taken together, these results suggest that output price uncertainty during the production process tends to reduce caloric intake of rural Nepalese households. The price uncertainty seemed to reduce the crop income households need to buy calorie-rich staple foods.     

PRICE LEVEL UNCERTAINTY, SAVING, AND LABOR SUPPLY

This paper derives the implications, for individual saving and labor supply, of increased uncertainty about the future price level. The framework for the analysis is a two-period model in which saving and labor supply are alternative sources of both present disutility and future income. The individual is assumed to make simultaneously his saving and labor supply decisions prior to the resolution of the uncertainty about the future price level. We find that, under theoretically plausible and empirically relevant assumptions about attitudes toward risk, an increase in future price level uncertainty increases individual saving and labor supply. These results imply that, for the economy as a whole, increased uncertainty about the future price level increases output and employment, while decreasing the real rate of interest, the present price level, and economic welfare.     

UNCERTAIN EFFECTS OF MONEY AND THE LINK BETWEEN THE INFLATION RATE AND INFLATION UNCERTAINTY

In the postwar period high rates of inflation are associated with high levels of inflation uncertainty. In this paper I argue that the inflation rate and inflation uncertainty are linked by forecasters' uncertainty about the impact of money growth on the price level, and I present evidence indicating that this has been the case. As long as the impact of money growth on the price level remains unpredictable, then even predictable money growth will cause inflation uncertainty with its accompanying adverse effects on employment and output.     

DIMENSIONS OF MACROECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY: A COMMON FACTOR ANALYSIS

Uncertainty about the future course of the economy is a potential driver of aggregate fluctuations. To identify the distinct dimensions of uncertainty in the macroeconomy, we construct a large dataset covering all types of economic uncertainty. We then identify two fundamental factors that account for the common dynamics in this dataset. These factors are interpreted as macroeconomic uncertainty. The first factor captures business cycle uncertainty, while the second factor represents oil and commodity price uncertainty. While both types of uncertainty generate a decline in output, time‐varying oil and commodity price uncertainty is more important for fluctuations in real activity. However, nonlinearities seem to amplify the effect of business cycle uncertainty during the global financial crisis. (JEL C32, C38, E32)     

ADJUSTMENT TO PRODUCTION UNCERTAINTY AND THE THEORY OF THE FIRM

This paper considers the behavior of the firm which faces uncertainty in its production process but can adjust its output once the uncertainty is resolved. Ex post adjustment, unlike previous treatments, involves a marginal cost penalty if more output is required and a lowering of price if too much is produced. With ex post adjustment allowed in this fashion, it is found that nonlinear risk preferences do not affect the sign of the firm's marginal risk premium at optimum ex ante output. The firm will produce less output than under certainty whether it is risk averse, risk neutral, or prefers risk.     

FACTOR DEMAND UNDER CONDITIONS OF PRODUCT DEMAND and SUPPLY UNCERTAINTY

The paper develops a theory of factor demand under uncertainty, that encompasses neo-classical factor demand and Keynesian effective factor demand as special cases. The model allows factor demand and output to move positively with product demand, even with a constant product price. This, in turn, permits real wages to move pro-cyclically in response to product demand shocks. In addition the model provides a new perspective on the "adding-up" problem (which posits that total factor payments exceed output if increasing returns to scale exist), and generates positive uncertainty profits that are similar in spirit to those of Frank Knight.     

STRUCTURAL ESTIMATION OF THE OUTPUT GAP: A BAYESIAN DSGE APPROACH

We estimate the output gap that is consistent with a standard New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, where the output gap is defined as a deviation of output from its flexible‐price equilibrium, using Bayesian methods. Our output gap illustrates the U.S. business cycles well, compared with other estimates. We find that the main source of the output gap movements is the demand shocks, but that the productivity shocks contributed to the stable output gap in the late 1990s. The robustness analysis shows that the estimated output gap is sensitive to the specification for monetary policy rules. (JEL E30, E32, C11)     

THE ALLOCATIVE EFFECT OF NON-BINDING PRICE CONTROLS*

This paper shows that the imposition of non-binding price controls affects the allocation of resources. Given uncertainty the imposition of such controls will affect expectations of future prices and therefore current investment and output decisions. Non-binding ceilings (floors) will cause future market clearing prices to be higher (lower). More surprisingly they may cause a current period shortage (surplus). The effects of threatened (stochastic) price and profit controls are also examined.     

Private provision of public goods under price uncertainty

In this paper, price uncertainty is introduced into the model of voluntary provision of public goods. The analysis is carried out depending upon whether individuals make real or nominal contributions. We highlight the significant factors that determine the complex effects of changes in uncertainty on the level of provision, the level of welfare, and the gaps between equilibrium and optimal values of these variables. In particular, we show that in some situations it would be desirable to introduce artificial randomness in prices in order to alleviate the free rider problem and to increase welfare.We are indebted to two referees for their comments and suggestions.     

Purchase deadline as a moderator of the effects of price uncertainty on search duration

A longstanding theoretical tenet in the economic psychology literature is that consumers respond to greater price uncertainty by increasing search. The generality of this tenet was investigated in the context of a moderating variable, purchase deadline. It was hypothesized that the effect of increased price uncertainty, as reflected by both cross-sectional price variability and longitudinal price variability, was moderated by temporal proximity to a purchase deadline. The hypothesis was tested by analyzing purchase data from a sample of consumers with known purchase deadlines searching for rental trucks. The results indicated that search increased in response to greater price uncertainty for distant deadlines but decreased in response to greater price uncertainty for proximal deadlines.     

CREDIBLE SIGNALS OF THE RELEASE OF NEW VERSIONS

Prices can credibly signal whether a durable‐goods monopolist will offer an improved good in the future. When the future release of a new version is private information, a monopoly seller will reveal a failure to develop and market a new version with a lower price than he or she would charge in full information. A firm would be willing to pay more to innovate when consumers are uncertain than if they are informed ex ante because a failure to innovate is punished by a low equilibrium price. Consumers' uncertainty about innovation intensifies an unsuccessful innovator's Coasian problem and increases consumer welfare. (JEL D82, L12, L15)     

PRICE COMPETITION UNDER COST UNCERTAINTY: A LABORATORY ANALYSIS

We study the relation between the number of firms and price-cost margins under price competition with uncertainty about competitors' costs. We report an experiment in which two, three, and four identical firms repeatedly interact in this environment. In line with the theoretical prediction, market prices decrease with the number of firms, but on average stay above marginal costs. Pricing is more aggressive than in equilibrium. Absolute and relative surplus increases with the number of firms. Total surplus is close to the equilibrium level, because enhanced consumer surplus through lower prices is counteracted by occasional displacements of the most cost-efficient firm. (JEL C90 , C72 , D43 , D83 , L13 )     

INPUT CHOICES UNDER PRICE UNCERTAINTY

Theory shows that, depending on risk preferences and technological parameters, price uncertainty may alter firms' choice of capital intensity. This paper presents an empirical analysis of the effect of price uncertainty on firms' choices of capital and labor stocks. Empirical results from a cross-section of manufacturing industries, as well as within-industries over time, show that greater price uncertainty increases an industry's capital-labor ratio. It appears that risk aversion does not dominate firms' decision making. These empirical findings have implications for the analysis of factor demand and productivity, and capacity utilization rates.     

A NOTE ON ADJUSTMENT TO PRODUCTION UNCERTAINTY AND THE THEORY OF THE FIRM

This paper analyzes the impact of production uncertainty on the firm's optimal output decision. If uncertainty is introduced by an additive risk variable, then short-run optimal output is unchanged, but the owner-manager's expected utility can change causing long-run output effects. If uncertainty is introduced by a multiplicative random variable, then short-run output can change as well.     

THE OPTIMALITY OF PARTIAL PRICE ADJUSTMENT POLICIES

This paper studies the optimal price adjustment policies of a monopolistically competitive firm whose profit-maximizing price is subject to a serially correlated random disturbance. The firm chooses its price by comparing the expected cost of present and future price changes with the expected losses occurring when price deviates from its instantaneous profit-maximizing value. Partial price adjustment often is the best way to minimize the sum of these losses. Prices tend to be more flexible both in response to large shocks to the firm's profit-maximizing price and when much uncertainty exists about the future.     

ASYMMETRIC ADJUSTMENTS OF PRICE AND OUTPUT

Classical theories predict rapid price adjustments, which are observed in inflationary episodes; Keynesian theories of sticky prices predict sluggish price responses, which are observed in contractions. We attempt to reconcile these observations in a model with asymmetries in producer price and output adjustments. Analysis of SIC two-digit industry data indicates production frequently exhibits negative asymmetry-shortfalls from trend are larger than positive deviations-whereas price often displays positive avmmetry. Evidence supporting two rational motives for asymmetric pricing is presented, but causal interactions between output and price asymmetries are not resolved. (JEL E3)     

Transmission of World Prices to Ugandan Coffee Growers in a Liberalised Economy

This article examines the transmission of world coffee prices to the price received by Ugandan coffee growers by means of Directed Acyclic Graphs which reveal the flow of information from the spot indicator price to the London futures price and then to the growers' price. A positive shock in the futures and indicator prices has respectively a positive and negative effect on the growers' price, and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition shows that uncertainty is attributable to own price, London futures price, and indicator price, in rank order. The article recommends that the Ugandan Coffee Development Authority should provide information on both futures and indicator prices to the growers.     

AN OPTIMAL MIDDLEMAN FIRM PRICE ADJUSTMENT POLICY: THE "SHORT-RUN INVENTORY-BASED PRICING POLICY"

This paper examines the optimum pricing policies of middleman firms who carry an inventory of goods bought for resale. Each period the firm in the theoretical model is required to post a price before it observes its realized demand. In disequilibrium situations, the firm's profit-maximizing pricing policy is shown to be a "short-run inventory-based pricing policy" which requires the firm to post a price below the long-run equilibrium price upon observing its actual beginning inventory level above its optimum level, and to post a price above the long-run equilibrium price upon observing its actual inventory level below its optimum level. The final section suggests that the use of such policies by middleman firms will lead to market price adjustments which are both consistent with the "law of supply and demand" and which are based on explicit maximizing behavor.     

ASYMMETRY IN THE EFFECTS OF MONETARY AND GOVERNMENT SPENDING SHOCKS: CONTRASTING EVIDENCE AND IMPLICATIONS

Using quarterly data for the United States, demand contraction exceeds expansion in the face of monetary and government spending shocks. Demand contraction in the face of government spending shocks, is absorbed in nominal wage and price deflation. The variability of government spending shocks decreases average wage and price inflation. In contrast, the upward flexibility of price appears in sharp contrast to its downward rigidity in the face of monetary shocks. Furthermore, output contraction is notably larger relative to expansion in the face of monetary shocks. Monetary variability accelerates average price inflation and decreases average output and real wage growth.     

OPTION VALUE: A GENERAL APPROACH

This article examines a potential bias if expected consumer surplus is used to measure the benefits of a price change under uncertainty. This bias, which is called option value, may be positive or negative. A general framework is developed for analyzing the determinants of the sign of option value, and this framework is applied to three types of uncertainty: income uncertainty, quality uncertainty, and uncertainty over consumer tastes. In the first two cases, option value has a determinate sign; however, in the last case, option value may be positive, negative, or zero in an unpredictable fashion.