Planning Forward by Looking Backward: Retrospective Thinking in Strategic Decision Making*

Retrospective thinking occurs whenever one remembers something from the past, but one can also think retrospectively about hypothetical future events, by imagining that the event has already transpired and then working backward in the mind from the future toward the present. Designers, artists, planners, and other creative individuals utilize retrospective thinking when they mentally envision the object they wish to create and then thinkabout how it might be constructed. Some theorists and some previous research have suggested that forward and backward thinking are different cognitive processes, but there has been little investigation on the nature of these differences. This article examines the literature and describes a laboratory study designed to investigate retrospective thinking as a technique for increased idea generation. Subjects (n=64) were professional planners and managers with an average business experience of over 20 years. In a planning task, significantly more ideas were generated in the retrospective thinking mode than in the prospective mode, but the ideas were not found to be of greater quality. Evidence emerged that a subset of subjects were better able to make use of the retrospective technique, suggesting that selection along with training may be appropriate for the technique's mosteffective use.     

Creative strategic planning using imagery

Strategic planning is often dominated by left-brain thinking which emphasizes rational, analytical techniques. Imagery is a technique which has been widely applied in other disciplines such as sports, medicine, learning and counselling, which can be used by planners to enhance more right-brain thinking. The technique is especially useful for creative thinking in scenario building and goal setting. This paper reviews the technique, explains how it has been used in other fields, and how it can be used to enhance planning.     

Presenting Geographic Information: Effects of Data Aggregation,Dispersion, and Users' Spatial Orientation

Geographic information systems (GIS) have taken on an increasingly important role supporting decision making in many organizations. GIS have been used to support a breadth of tasks including oil and mineral exploration, facility location, logistics support, and facilities management decisions. The effectiveness of GIS as a decision support tool comes primarily from the visual display of data in the form of maps. When presenting information as a geographic map, the level of data aggregation potentially affects aspects of task complexity such as information load and the potential for pattern recognition by the user. Other task attributes expected to be related to data aggregation effects include problem size, the degree of data dispersion, and users' spatial orientation skills. We conducted an experiment to study these effects and their interactions. Subjects used a GIS including map-based information characterized by different levels of problem size, data dispersion, and data aggregation. Spatial orientation skill was examined as a covariate in the experimental treatments. The results indicate that all of these geographic information characteristics have significant impacts on decision performance. Moreover, many interactions are present among the factors. We evaluate these interactions in order to derive implications for practice and for future research.     

How (not) to motivate online workers: Two controlled field experiments on leadership in the gig economy

An increasing number of workers participate in online labor markets. In contrast to traditional employment relationships within firms, the interaction between online workers and their employers are short and impersonal, which makes motivating online workers more challenging. We present results from two large-scale controlled field experiments on Amazon Mechanical Turk investigating the effects of monetary rewards and soft leadership techniques on output quantity and quality. In the first study, we investigate the effects of monetary rewards and simple upfront messages (praise or reference points). Monetary rewards increase quantity significantly. Sending simple messages, however, can have a significantly negative effect on quantity. The second study concentrates on the effects of communication based on charismatic leadership techniques. Charismatic communication techniques can also backfire if only a subset of them is used, whereas using a broad set including quantitative goals increases output quantity significantly. Neither intervention had a significant effect on the quality of work.     

Education CREATIVE THINKING AND INNOVATIVE EDUCATION IN THE DECISION SCIENCES

Creative problem solving is seldom addressed directly in the decision sciences literature. The first half of this paper reviews current thinking about creativity and its educational importance. The remainder addresses creative problem-solving processes and, in particular, the process developed by Parnes, Noller and Biondi [24] and Osborn [23]. This process has been integrated into an OR/MS problem-solving course which is described. Conclusions and implications for decision sciences education and practice in general are discussed.     

USING COGNITIVE DISSONANCE THEORY TO REDUCE THE BACK-OUT RATE IN SCHOOL OF BUSINESS APPLICATIONS

Schools of Business are interested in improving the quantity and quality of their undergraduate enrollments. For this reason, they often contact applicants who have been accepted in order to make them feel welcome. Telephone calls, follow-up letters and other devices are employed. Cognitive dissonance theory suggests that these should have a positive effect on the percentage of applicants who follow through and actually attend classes, but no empirical evidence exists to prove or disprove this hypothesis. This study reports on the results obtained when two dissonance reducing techniques, a follow-up letter and a copy of a school of business newsletter, were used to increase the percentage of applicants matriculating for the fall semester. These techniques were not successful in achieving this objective and, instead, may have been counter productive.     

Systems Analysis of Failures as a Quality Management Tool

Managers and quality practitioners are familiar with the linkage of the words quality and systems to denote a systematic approach to quality, as in BS5750 Quality Systems, say. There is, however, a more specialized use of the word systems that indicates the application of systems thinking and which gives rise to the adjective systemic (of, or pertaining to a system) rather than systematic (carrying out in a planned and orderly fashion). This paper examines the potential for applying systems thinking to the management of quality with particular reference to one branch of systems work: the study of failures. The paper draws comparisons between quality and systems analysis of failures and points out that some failures could equally well be described as quality problems and vice versa. The paper argues that problems at the system level are frequently overlooked or avoided by those undertaking quality improvement programmes, partly because individuals within an organization may experience only different, smaller aspects of a systemic problem and partly because the problem solvers may lack the means or motivation to tackle complex, poorly defined problem messes. It then goes on to suggest that use of a meta–method for problem analysis would enable such problems to be addressed. One such method that has been widely applied in the study of failures, the failures method, is described in detail and its application to a failure/quality problem is outlined.     

The Importance of Creativity in the Management Field

Creative problem-solving is an important dimension to managerial activity. Rapidly changing business environments produce problems which managers have not previously encountered. Tried and trusted methods of approaching new problems can meet with failure. The need for creative problem-solving methods which overcome such difficulties is of paramount importance. There are a number of established creative problem-solving aids, such as brainstorming, lateral thinking, etc. and a new set of aids which are computer-assisted. This paper outlines newer developments.     

The Impact of a Structured-Argument Approach on Group Problem Formulation*

Despite advances in decision analysis and decision support systems, few formulaic procedures exist for undertaking problem formulation, particularly in group settings. This leaves managers with little procedural support for the important task of carefully structuring problems. In a laboratory experiment of 29 intact student teams, we contrasted two problem formulation methodologies: a structured argument approach (based on application of formal reasoning) and a group process approach (based on private idea generation prior to public sharing and evaluation of ideas). The structured argument approach took more time to use and failed to bring about more information search and equivocality reduction in group discussions. On the positive side, however, the structured argument approach led to a greater combination of both coverage of critical issues and consensus on those issues. Use of the structured argument approach also resulted in higher satisfaction with the problem definition and commitment to implementing results of the group meeting. Overall, the results reveal cost/benefit tradeoffs associated with developing argumentation-based procedures for problem formulation.     

Cognitive skills and leadership performance: The nine critical skills

Over the years, a growing body of evidence indicates that certain cognitive skills are a critical determinant of leader performance. In the present effort we show that application of these skills is typically founded in case-based knowledge. Subsequently, we identify nine key skills people in leadership positions employ when working with case-based knowledge to address leadership problems: 1) problem definition, 2) cause/goal analysis, 3) constraint analysis, 4) planning, 5) forecasting, 6) creative thinking, 7) idea evaluation, 8) wisdom, and 9) sensemaking/visioning. Individual and situational contingencies shaping effective application of these thinking skills is discussed. In addition, the implications of findings bearing on leader thinking skills for leader assessment and leader development are considered.     

Simulated annealing procedure for scheduling competing tasks in flexible manufacturing

This paper presents a simulated annealing SA procedure heuristic for the problem of scheduling N tasks on a machine equipped with an automatic tool changer to minimize the makespan time. The problem is first formulated as a symmetric travelling salesman problem TSP . A local search heuristic procedure is developed, then embedded into SA algorithm to enhance its performance. The implemented SA heuristic has the following features: an exponential acceptance function with non-monotonic cooling schedule, heuristic pre-processing, and a neighbourhood of changing the sequence of a small number of tasks and named the k-interchange procedure. The algorithm is compared with an exact solution method on a set of practical-sized problems. The proposed algorithm performed very well in terms of solution quality and computation time.     

Developing strategic thinking in senior management

Chief Executive Officers have recently stated that their greatest staffing challenge for the 1990s is the development of strategic leadership in their senior management. In order to do this, it is necessary to identify the substance of strategic thinking, and the capabilities that must be mastered. Writers on strategy have identified six major elements of strategic thinking and these have been organized to reveal the tasks, questions, decisions, and skills that senior executives must acquire in order to lead their organizations strategically. Finally, the article identifies training programme elements which are used by Directors of Manpower Development to develop strategic leadership ability.     

Well begun is half done: Toward an understanding of predictors for initial training transfer

As organizations face a rapidly changing marketing environment, they have an increased investment in training programs that aim to improve employees’ hard skills to successfully execute tasks and soft skills for healthy social relationships. Although managers question the transfer problem in hard- and soft-skills training, researchers have limited knowledge on this topic. This study focuses on improving the initial training transfer, an essential phase of the transfer process. Specifically, drawing on signaling theory, we introduce training characteristics (i.e., training content validity and transfer design) as the antecedents. This study also assesses the potential underlying mechanisms by examining the roles of training engagement and training criticality. Using a sample of 182 employees enrolled in a typical hard- and soft-skills training program (i.e., quality management training), we test a mediation model. As expected, the results indicate that both training content validity and transfer design positively impact initial training transfer. Furthermore, the links between training characteristics and initial training transfer are mediated by training engagement and training criticality. This study contributes to the research on initial training transfer by exploring training characteristics as the antecedents and integrating the research on transfer and personal attitudes under hard- and soft-skills training.     

基于详尽可能性模型的用户创新社区创意采纳影响因素研究

本文基于详尽可能性模型构建了用户创新社区四维度创意采纳模型，分析各维度中不同因素对创意采纳的影响作用。基于小米MIUI社区提交的16.3万余条创意的实证研究表明：用户社区地位对创意采纳有积极影响；用户主动贡献行为对创意采纳有积极影响，而反应贡献行为对创意采纳无显著影响；社区认同度对创意采纳有显著的积极影响；创意质量包括创意长度及创意论据数量均与创意采纳成倒U型曲线关系；社区吸收能力正向调节创意长度与创意采纳之间的曲线关系。研究结果可以为解决企业在创意采纳过程中的认知负荷问题提供有益的指导和借鉴。     

How do actors shape social networks during the process of new product development?

Recent studies on new-idea generation and development have highlighted the role played by network structure in the genesis of new combinations or the process of selecting ideas. However, less attention has been paid to the factors that entice actors to shape social networks during the process of the development of new ideas.This research was conducted in an R&D facility of a semi-conductor company. We analysed the generation of five creative projects and their development over a four-year period. We used a longitudinal approach and collected data through interviews and observations to identify the creative contributions and the actors who were involved at different time periods for each project. We mapped the relationships between actors who contributed to the development of each idea through creative thinking and/or helped it to become accepted both internally and externally over three-year windows. This method generated data on network evolution.We also carried out a qualitative analysis and identified four main factors explaining why actors turn to others during the idea-development process: (1) to gain access to information; (2) to enhance credibility; (3) to exercise one’s influence; and (4) to gain access to knowledge through people or objects. We demonstrate that different types of ties or network structures are relied upon to reap different kinds of benefits. This may partially explain network evolution as an idea progresses through different development stages.     

水力发电企业整体效益评价及实例

针对水力发电企业的整体经济效益难以进行评价的问题,提出了以灰色关联度技术为支撑,选择数量模型评价方法,应用层次分析法的有关技术和思想,建立起具有可操作性的评价模型及评价体系。     

Effects of Performance Feedback on Typing Speed and Accuracy

Abstract

Performance feedback is one of the most widely used tools in organizational settings. To date, little research has been conducted focusing on comparisons of the differential effects of the sources, frequency, or media used for feedback on both the quality and quantity of performance. This research investigated the effects of different feedback sources for performance (peer vs. supervisor) on quality and quantity (separate and combined) of typing performance. The source of feedback did not differentially influence performance, although this result may have been due to a failure to establish a clear distinction between the two roles. Feedback, compared to no feedback, increased the targeted typing performance significantly. Feedback for accuracy of performance yielded the largest overall results.     

非对称信息条件下实物期权最优投资问题研究

描述了实物期权投资者和经营者价值函数,分析了不同信息条件下实物期权的最优投 资决策. 在非对称信息条件下,实物期权经营者对于项目价值信息隐匿,这是一个具有逆向选 择的委托代理问题. 设计了以实物期权投资者利润数学期望最大为目标函数,以投资和数量折 扣作为状态方程的最优控制问题. 应用极大值原理推导了实物期权最优投资和数量折扣的求 解方案. 最后,进行了实物期权最优投资的仿真实验,验证了实物期权在项目投资问题上的分 析结果.     

我国股市同业扩容的合理性解释

中国股市一直存在着垄断供给。本文从理论上分析了我国股市供给的垄断性缺陷,并说明此缺陷会影响上市公司质量,从而得到股市同业扩容的合理性理论解释。本文认为股市同行业内扩容,将增加上市公司的同业竞争,是提高上市公司质量的可行方案。     

A Comparison of Lecture Versus Role-Playing in the Training of the Use of Positive Reinforcement

Managers of organizations, often in coordination with personnel departments, create training programs for their staff. The emphasis in human service organizations is to train staff to use behavior modification techniques, especially to reinforce appropriate client behavior. Unfortunately, published research evaluating the quality of this training has been almost nonexistent (Kazdin & Moyer, 1976). Two different instructional formats of training were compared in this study: two groups received a lecture on reinforcing appropriate behavior and two groups role-played the act of reinforcing appropriate behavior. Follow-up observations of the staff showed that the performance of the lecture-trained staff was stable or declined after an initial improvement. The performance of staff who role-played, however, continued to improve. Feedback and physical action may be the reasons for the superiority of role-playing over a lecture format.