SVM-like decision theoretical classification of high-dimensional vectors

In this paper, we consider the classification of high-dimensional vectors based on a small number of training samples from each class. The proposed method follows the Bayesian paradigm, and it is based on a small vector which can be viewed as the regression of the new observation on the space spanned by the training samples. The classification method provides posterior probabilities that the new vector belongs to each of the classes, hence it adapts naturally to any number of classes. Furthermore, we show a direct similarity between the proposed method and the multicategory linear support vector machine introduced in Lee et al. [2004. Multicategory support vector machines: theory and applications to the classification of microarray data and satellite radiance data. Journal of the American Statistical Association 99 (465), 67–81]. We compare the performance of the technique proposed in this paper with the SVM classifier using real-life military and microarray datasets. The study shows that the misclassification errors of both methods are very similar, and that the posterior probabilities assigned to each class are fairly accurate.     

Strawderman-type estimators for a scale parameter with application to the exponential distribution

It is shown that Strawderman's [1974. Minimax estimation of powers of the variance of a normal population under squared error loss. Ann. Statist. 2, 190–198] technique for estimating the variance of a normal distribution can be extended to estimating a general scale parameter in the presence of a nuisance parameter. Employing standard monotone likelihood ratio-type conditions, a new class of improved estimators for this scale parameter is derived under quadratic loss. By imposing an additional condition, a broader class of improved estimators is obtained. The dominating procedures are in form analogous to those in Strawderman [1974. Minimax estimation of powers of the variance of a normal population under squared error loss. Ann. Statist. 2, 190–198]. Application of the general results to the exponential distribution yields new sufficient conditions, other than those of Brewster and Zidek [1974. Improving on equivariant estimators. Ann. Statist. 2, 21–38] and Kubokawa [1994. A unified approach to improving equivariant estimators. Ann. Statist. 22, 290–299], for improving the best affine equivariant estimator of the scale parameter. A class of estimators satisfying the new conditions is constructed. The results shed new light on Strawderman's [1974. Minimax estimation of powers of the variance of a normal population under squared error loss. Ann. Statist. 2, 190–198] technique.     

The superharmonic condition for simultaneous estimation of means in exponential familles

The mean vector associated with several independent variates from the exponential subclass of Hudson (1978) is estimated under weighted squared error loss. In particular, the formal Bayes and “Stein-like” estimators of the mean vector are given. Conditions are also given under which these estimators dominate any of the “natural estimators”. Our conditions for dominance are motivated by a result of Stein (1981), who treated the N_p (θ, I) case with p ≥ 3. Stein showed that formal Bayes estimators dominate the usual estimator if the marginal density of the data is superharmonic. Our present exponential class generalization entails an elliptic differential inequality in some natural variables. Actually, we assume that each component of the data vector has a probability density function which satisfies a certain differential equation. While the densities of Hudson (1978) are particular solutions of this equation, other solutions are not of the exponential class if certain parameters are unknown. Our approach allows for the possibility of extending the parametric Stein-theory to useful nonexponential cases, but the problem of nuisance parameters is not treated here.     

Empirical Bayes regression analysis with many regressors but fewer observations

In this paper, we consider the prediction problem in multiple linear regression model in which the number of predictor variables, p, is extremely large compared to the number of available observations, n  . The least-squares predictor based on a generalized inverse is not efficient. We propose six empirical Bayes estimators of the regression parameters. Three of them are shown to have uniformly lower prediction error than the least-squares predictors when the vector of regressor variables are assumed to be random with mean vector zero and the covariance matrix (1/n)X^tX$(1/n){\mathit{X}}^{\mathrm{t}}\mathit{X}$ where X^t=(_x1,…,_xn)${\mathit{X}}^{\mathrm{t}}=({\mathit{x}}_1,\dots ,{\mathit{x}}_n)$ is the p×n$p\times n$ matrix of observations on the regressor vector centered from their sample means. For other estimators, we use simulation to show its superiority over the least-squares predictor.     

Simulation-based sequential Bayesian design

We consider simulation-based methods for exploration and maximization of expected utility in sequential decision problems. We consider problems which require backward induction with analytically intractable expected utility integrals at each stage. We propose to use forward simulation to approximate the integral expressions, and a reduction of the allowable action space to avoid problems related to an increasing number of possible trajectories in the backward induction. The artificially reduced action space allows strategies to depend on the full history of earlier observations and decisions only indirectly through a low dimensional summary statistic. The proposed rule provides a finite-dimensional approximation to the unrestricted infinite-dimensional optimal decision rule. We illustrate the proposed approach with an application to an optimal stopping problem in a clinical trial.     

Inferences concerning interpersonal choices given anonymously

It may be difficult or impossible to make a reliable empirical investigation of an unknown network of interpersonal choices or contacts if these are in some respect sensitive for the individuals involved. We consider how choice data given anonymously can be used to reveal various features of the network. Using tools from statistical decision theory and information theory we can determine risks and capacities of disclosing choice data, the graph structure of choice data and its numbers of loops and mutuals. We give some general results, illustrate the combinatorial complexity of the problem and comment upon the computational difficulties.     

Analysis of middle-censored data with exponential lifetime distributions

Recently Jammalamadaka and Mangalam [2003. Non-parametric estimation for middle censored data. J. Nonparametric Statist. 15, 253–265] introduced a general censoring scheme called the “middle-censoring” scheme in non-parametric set up. In this paper we consider this middle-censoring scheme when the lifetime distribution of the items is exponentially distributed and the censoring mechanism is independent and non-informative. In this set up, we derive the maximum likelihood estimator and study its consistency and asymptotic normality properties. We also derive the Bayes estimate of the exponential parameter under a gamma prior. Since a theoretical construction of the credible interval becomes quite difficult, we propose and implement Gibbs sampling technique to construct the credible intervals. Monte Carlo simulations are performed to evaluate the small sample behavior of the techniques proposed. A real data set is analyzed to illustrate the practical application of the proposed methods.     

Inference of non-centrality parameter of a truncated non-central chi-squared distribution

Non-central chi-squared distribution plays a vital role in statistical testing procedures. Estimation of the non-centrality parameter provides valuable information for the power calculation of the associated test. We are interested in the statistical inference property of the non-centrality parameter estimate based on one observation (usually a summary statistic) from a truncated chi-squared distribution. This work is motivated by the application of the flexible two-stage design in case–control studies, where the sample size needed for the second stage of a two-stage study can be determined adaptively by the results of the first stage. We first study the moment estimate for the truncated distribution and prove its existence, uniqueness, and inadmissibility and convergence properties. We then define a new class of estimates that includes the moment estimate as a special case. Among this class of estimates, we recommend to use one member that outperforms the moment estimate in a wide range of scenarios. We also present two methods for constructing confidence intervals. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed point and interval estimates.     

Controlling Bayes directional false discovery rate in random effects model

Starting with a decision theoretic formulation of simultaneous testing of null hypotheses against two-sided alternatives, a procedure controlling the Bayesian directional false discovery rate (BDFDR) is developed through controlling the posterior directional false discovery rate (PDFDR). This is an alternative to Lewis and Thayer [2004. A loss function related to the FDR for random effects multiple comparison. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 125, 49–58.] with a better control of the BDFDR. Moreover, it is optimum in the sense of being the non-randomized part of the procedure maximizing the posterior expectation of the directional per-comparison power rate given the data, while controlling the PDFDR. A corresponding empirical Bayes method is proposed in the context of one-way random effects model. Simulation study shows that the proposed Bayes and empirical Bayes methods perform much better from a Bayesian perspective than the procedures available in the literature.     

A graphical summary of disparities in health care and related summary measures

In order to assess the effectiveness of government programs designed to reduce disparities in the health care minority groups receive relative to the majority white population, a proper statistical measure should be used. This article proposes a measure of and its accompanying graph, which is readily interpretable and is not affected by the number of minority subgroups examined.     

Nonparametric methods in multivariate factorial designs for large number of factor levels

We propose different multivariate nonparametric tests for factorial designs and derive their asymptotic distribution for the situation where the number of replications is limited, whereas the number of treatments goes to infinity (large a, small n case). The tests are based on separate rankings for the different variables, and they are therefore invariant under separate monotone transformations of the individual variables.     

Semiparametric tests for change-points with epidemic alternatives

The empirical likelihood ratio-based semiparametric tests of change-points with epidemic alternatives are constructed and are proved to have the same limiting null distributions as some well-known tests. The maximum empirical likelihood estimates of the change-points and the epidemic duration are shown to be consistent. Data-based model tests are also provided. The method is applied to a stock market price data and the Nile river data.     

Procedures for improving the mle for ordered binomial parameters

The problem is that of estimating the probabilities of m independent binomial random variables when their probabilities are known to be nondecreasing and the loss function is squared error. In the cases where the m.l.e. is inadmissible (essentially when the total number of trials is 7 or more) we present a method for modifying the m.l.e. to get a better estimator. The method requires a series of changes. At each step we alter the action taken by the m.l.e. on each of three, appropriately chosen, points in the sample space.     

Robust estimating equation based on statistical depth

In this paper the estimating equation is constructed via statistical depth. The obtained estimating equation and parameter estimation have desirable robustness, which attain very high breakdown values close to 1/2. At the same time, the obtained parameter estimation still has ordinary asymptotic behaviours such as asymptotic normality. In particular, the robust quasi likelihood and depth-weighted LSE respectively for nonlinear and linear regression model are introduced. A suggestion for choosing weight function and a method of constructing depth-weighed quasi likelihood equation are given. This paper is supported by NNSF projects (10371059 and 10171051) of China.     

Canonical correlation analysis for the vector AR(1) model with ARCH innovations

This paper extends the results of canonical correlation analysis of Anderson [2002. Canonical correlation analysis and reduced-rank regression in autoregressive models. Ann. Statist. 30, 1134–1154] to a vector AR(1) process with a vector ARCH(1) innovations. We obtain the limiting distributions of the sample matrices, the canonical correlations and the canonical vectors of the process. The extension is important because many time series in economics and finance exhibit conditional heteroscedasticity. We also use simulation to demonstrate the effects of ARCH innovations on the canonical correlation analysis in finite sample. Both the limiting distributions and simulation results show that overlooking the ARCH effects in canonical correlation analysis can easily lead to erroneous inference.     

Optimum designs in complete two-way layouts

In the usual two-way layout of ANOVA (interactions are admitted) let nij ? 1 be the number of observations for the factor-level combination(i, j). For testing the hypothesis that all main effects of the first factor vanish numbers $\text{n}{}^1\text{ij}$ are given such that the power function of the F-test is uniformly maximized (U-optimality), if one considers only designs (nij) for which the row-sums ni are prescribed. Furthermore, in the (larger) set of all designs for which the total number of observations is given, all D-optimum designs are constructed.     

Inferences on the intraclass correlation coefficients in the unbalanced two-way random effects model with interaction

In this paper, the hypothesis testing and interval estimation for the intraclass correlation coefficients are considered in a two-way random effects model with interaction. Two particular intraclass correlation coefficients are described in a reliability study. The tests and confidence intervals for the intraclass correlation coefficients are developed when the data are unbalanced. One approach is based on the generalized p-value and generalized confidence interval, the other is based on the modified large-sample idea. These two approaches simplify to the ones in Gilder et al. [2007. Confidence intervals on intraclass correlation coefficients in a balanced two-factor random design. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 137, 1199–1212] when the data are balanced. Furthermore, some statistical properties of the generalized confidence intervals are investigated. Finally, some simulation results to compare the performance of the modified large-sample approach with that of the generalized approach are reported. The simulation results indicate that the modified large-sample approach performs better than the generalized approach in the coverage probability and expected length of the confidence interval.     

Invariant methods for estimating variance components in mixed linear models 2

The subject of this contribution is to present a survey on new methods for variance component estimation, which appeared in the literature in recent years. Starting from mixed models treated in analysis of variance research work on this field turned over to a more general approach in which the covariance matrix of the vector of observations is assumed to be a unknown linear combination of known symmetric matrices. Much interest has been shown in developing some kinds op optimal estimators for the unknown parameters and most results were obtained for estimators being invariant with respect to a certain group of translations. Therefore we restrict attention to this class of estimates. We will deal with minimum variance unbiased estimators, least squared errors estimators, maximum likelihood estimators. Bayes quadratic estimators and show some relations to the mimimum norm quadratic unbiased estimation principle (MINQUE) introduced by C. R. Rao [20]. We do not mention the original motivation of MINQUE since the otion of minimum norm depends on a measure that is not accepted by all statisticians. Also we do‘nt deal with other approaches like the BAYEsian and fiducial methods which were successfully applied by S. Portnoy [18], P. Rusolph [22], G. C. Tiao, W. Y. Tan [28], M. J. K. Healy [9] and others, although in very special situations, only. Additionally we add some new results and also new insight in the properties of known estimators. We give a new characterization of MINQUE in the class of all estimators, extend explicite expressions for locally optimal quadratic estimators given by C. R. Rao [22] to a slightly more general situation and prove complete class theorems useful for the computation of BAYES quadratic estimators. We also investigate situations in which BAYES quadratic unbiased estimators do'nt change if the distribution of the error terms differ from the normal distribution.     

Confidence intervals on intraclass correlation coefficients in a balanced two-factor random design

A modified large-sample (MLS) approach and a generalized confidence interval (GCI) approach are proposed for constructing confidence intervals for intraclass correlation coefficients. Two particular intraclass correlation coefficients are considered in a reliability study. Both subjects and raters are assumed to be random effects in a balanced two-factor design, which includes subject-by-rater interaction. Computer simulation is used to compare the coverage probabilities of the proposed MLS approach (GiTTCH) and GCI approaches with the Leiva and Graybill [1986. Confidence intervals for variance components in the balanced two-way model with interaction. Comm. Statist. Simulation Comput. 15, 301–322] method. The competing approaches are illustrated with data from a gauge repeatability and reproducibility study. The GiTTCH method maintains at least the stated confidence level for interrater reliability. For intrarater reliability, the coverage is accurate in several circumstances but can be liberal in some circumstances. The GCI approach provides reasonable coverage for lower confidence bounds on interrater reliability, but its corresponding upper bounds are too liberal. Regarding intrarater reliability, the GCI approach is not recommended because the lower bound coverage is liberal. Comparing the overall performance of the three methods across a wide array of scenarios, the proposed modified large-sample approach (GiTTCH) provides the most accurate coverage for both interrater and intrarater reliability.