The effect of mixing-distribution misspecification in conjugate mixture models

Parametric mixture models are commonly used in the analysis of clustered data. Parametric families are specified for the conditional distribution of the response variable given a cluster-specific effect, and for the marginal distribution of the cluster-specific effects. This latter distribution is referred to as the mixing distribution. If the form of the mixing distribution is misspecified, then Bayesian and maximum-likelihood estimators of parameters associated with either distribution may be inconsistent. The magnitude of the asymptotic bias is investigated, using an approximation based on infinitesimal contamination of the mixing distribution. The approximation is useful when there is a closed-form expression for the marginal distribution of the response under the assumed mixing distribution, but not under the true mixing distribution. Typically this occurs when the assumed mixing distribution is conjugate, meaning that the conditional distribution of the cluster-specific parameter given the response variable belongs to the same parametric family as the mixing distribution.     

Marginal information for expectation parameters

The authors consider a special case of inference in the presence of nuisance parameters. They show that when the orthogonalized score function is a function of a statistic S, no Fisher information for the interest parameter is lost by using the marginal distribution of S rather than the full distribution of the observations. Therefore, no information for the interest parameter is recovered by conditioning on an ancillary statistic, and information will be lost by conditioning on an approximate ancillary statistic. This is the case for regular multivariate exponential families when the interest parameter is a subvector of the expectation parameter and the statistic is the maximum likelihood estimate of the interest parameter. Several examples are considered, including the 2 × 2 table.     

Multivariate inverse Gaussian distribution as a limit of multivariate waiting time distributions

Multivariate inverse Gaussian distribution proposed by Minami [2003. A multivariate extension of inverse Gaussian distribution derived from inverse relationship. Commun. Statist. Theory Methods 32(12), 2285–2304] was derived through multivariate inverse relationship with multivariate Gaussian distributions and characterized as the distribution of the location at a certain stopping time of a multivariate Brownian motion. In this paper, we show that the multivariate inverse Gaussian distribution is also a limiting distribution of multivariate Lagrange distributions, which is a family of waiting time distributions, under certain conditions.     

Simultaneous control and estimation of linear stochastic systems with unknown parameters of disturbances

In the present paper methods of the decision theory are applied to determine minimax policies of simultaneous control and estimation for stochastic system (1). There are solved the following cases:

a)when disturbances of the system have the binomial distribution with unknown parameter

b)when disturbances of the system have distribution belonging to an exponential family dependent on natural unknown parameter and the class of prior distributions of parameter is restricted by fixing the second moment

In both cases open analytical forms of minimax policies are given     

Normal approximation to the hypergeometric distribution in nonstandard cases and a sub-Gaussian Berry–Esseen theorem

In this paper, we consider simple random sampling without replacement from a dichotomous finite population. We investigate accuracy of the Normal approximation to the Hypergeometric probabilities for a wide range of parameter values, including the nonstandard cases where the sampling fraction tends to one and where the proportion of the objects of interest in the population tends to the boundary values, zero and one. We establish a non-uniform Berry–Esseen theorem for the Hypergeometric distribution which shows that in the nonstandard cases, the rate of Normal approximation to the Hypergeometric distribution can be considerably slower than the rate of Normal approximation to the Binomial distribution. We also report results from a moderately large numerical study and provide some guidelines for using the Normal approximation to the Hypergeometric distribution in finite samples.     

Some recurrence relation-based estimators of the parameters of a generalized log-series distribution

Two families of closed form estimators are proposed for estimating the single parameter of the log-series distribution(LSD)and for estimating the two parameters of a generalization of the LSD distribution(GLSD)presented by Tripathi and Gupta(1985). These families are based on the recurrence relations obtained from these distributions, are of closed form, and have very high asymptotic relative effi¬ciencies. Some two-stage procedures are suggested.     

Generalized exponential distribution: Existing results and some recent developments

Mudholkar and Srivastava [1993. Exponentiated Weibull family for analyzing bathtub failure data. IEEE Trans. Reliability 42, 299–302] introduced three-parameter exponentiated Weibull distribution. Two-parameter exponentiated exponential or generalized exponential distribution is a particular member of the exponentiated Weibull distribution. Generalized exponential distribution has a right skewed unimodal density function and monotone hazard function similar to the density functions and hazard functions of the gamma and Weibull distributions. It is observed that it can be used quite effectively to analyze lifetime data in place of gamma, Weibull and log-normal distributions. The genesis of this model, several properties, different estimation procedures and their properties, estimation of the stress-strength parameter, closeness of this distribution to some of the well-known distribution functions are discussed in this article.     

On a strengthening of the indifference zone approach to a generalized selection goal

The problem of selecting s out of k given compounts which contains at least c of the t best ones is considered. In the case of underlying distribution families with location or scale parameter it is shown that the indiffence zone approach can be strengthened to confidence statements for the parameters of the selected components. These confidence statements are valid over the entire parameter space without decreasing the infimum of the probability of a correct selection.     

Fiducial and Confidence Distributions for Real Exponential Families

We develop an easy and direct way to define and compute the fiducial distribution of a real parameter for both continuous and discrete exponential families. Furthermore, such a distribution satisfies the requirements to be considered a confidence distribution. Many examples are provided for models, which, although very simple, are widely used in applications. A characterization of the families for which the fiducial distribution coincides with a Bayesian posterior is given, and the strict connection with Jeffreys prior is shown. Asymptotic expansions of fiducial distributions are obtained without any further assumptions, and again, the relationship with the objective Bayesian analysis is pointed out. Finally, using the Edgeworth expansions, we compare the coverage of the fiducial intervals with that of other common intervals, proving the good behaviour of the former.     

Does bias reduction with external estimator of second order parameter work for endpoint?

Bias reduction estimation for tail index has been studied in the literature. One method is to reduce bias with an external estimator of the second order regular variation parameter; see Gomes and Martins [2002. Asymptotically unbiased estimators of the tail index based on external estimation of the second order parameter. Extremes 5(1), 5–31]. It is known that negative extreme value index implies that the underlying distribution has a finite right endpoint. As far as we know, there exists no bias reduction estimator for the endpoint of a distribution. In this paper, we study the bias reduction method with an external estimator of the second order parameter for both the negative extreme value index and endpoint simultaneously. Surprisingly, we find that this bias reduction method for negative extreme value index requires a larger order of sample fraction than that for positive extreme value index. This finding implies that this bias reduction method for endpoint is less attractive than that for positive extreme value index. Nevertheless, our simulation study prefers the proposed bias reduction estimators to the biased estimators in Hall [1982. On estimating the endpoint of a distribution. Ann. Statist. 10, 556–568].     

IG-symmetry and R-symmetry: Interrelations and applications to the inverse Gaussian theory

The two parameter inverse Gaussian (IG) distribution is often more appropriate and convenient for modelling and analysis of nonnegative right skewed data than the better known and now ubiquitous Gaussian distribution. Its convenience stems from its analytic simplicity and the striking similarities of its methodologies with those employed with the normal theory models. These, known as the G–IG analogies, include the concepts and measures of IG-symmetry, IG-skewness and IG-kurtosis, the IG-analogues of the corresponding classical notions and measures. The new IG-associated entities, although well defined and mathematically transparent, are intuitively and conceptually opaque. In this paper, we first elaborate the importance of the IG distribution and of the G–IG analogies. Then we consider the IG-related root-reciprocal IG (RRIG) distribution and introduce a physically transparent, conceptually clear notion of reciprocal symmetry (R-symmetry) and use it to explain the IG-symmetry. We study the moments and mixture properties of the R-symmetric distributions and the relationship of R-symmetry with IG-symmetry and note that RRIG distribution provides a link, in addition to Tweedie's Laplace transform link, between the Gaussian and inverse Gaussian distributions. We also give a structural characterization of the unimodal R-symmetric distributions. This work further expands the long list of G–IG analogies. Several applications including product convolution, monotonicity of power functions, peakedness and monotone limit theorems of R-symmetry are outlined.     

Nonparametric regression estimation of conditional tails: the random covariate case

We present families of nonparametric estimators for the conditional tail index of a Pareto-type distribution in the presence of random covariates. These families are constructed from locally weighted sums of power transformations of excesses over a high threshold. The asymptotic properties of the proposed estimators are derived under some assumptions on the conditional response distribution, the weight function and the density function of the covariates. We also introduce bias-corrected versions of the estimators for the conditional tail index, and propose in this context a consistent estimator for the second-order tail parameter. The finite sample performance of some specific examples from our classes of estimators is illustrated with a small simulation experiment.     

A Distribution for Multivariate Frailty Based on the Compound Poisson Distribution with Random Scale

Frailty models are often used to model heterogeneity in survival analysis. The most common frailty model has an individual intensity which is a product of a random factor and a basic intensity common to all individuals. This paper uses the compound Poisson distribution as the random factor. It allows some individuals to be non-susceptible, which can be useful in many settings. In some diseases, one may suppose that a number of families have an increased susceptibility due to genetic circumstances. Then, it is logical to use a frailty model where the individuals within each family have some shared factor, while individuals between families have different factors. This can be attained by randomizing the Poisson parameter in the compound Poisson distribution. To our knowledge, this is a new distribution. The power variance function distributions are used for the Poisson parameter. The subsequent appearing distributions are studied in some detail, both regarding appearance and various statistical properties. An application to infant mortality data from the Medical Birth Registry of Norway is included, where the model is compared to more traditional shared frailty models.     

Asymptotic bayesian inference in some nonstandard cases: Bernstein–von Mises Results and regular bayes' estimators

Asymptotically with probability close to one, the convergence in variation (also in distribution) to the multivariate normal, of the aposteriori density function of a parameter agains an apriori density, viz. the BERNSTEIN–VON MISES results are established when observations are not necessarily indenpendent or identically distributed but satisfy weak regularity assumptions on their joint density function. Regular BAYES' estimators are defined with respect to regular loss functions and a positive apriori density and proved consistent, asymptotically efficient and asymptotically normal. Examples and applications to conjugate families of densities, to inference in MARKOV Chains and other nonstandard cases illustrate results     

Inference of non-centrality parameter of a truncated non-central chi-squared distribution

Non-central chi-squared distribution plays a vital role in statistical testing procedures. Estimation of the non-centrality parameter provides valuable information for the power calculation of the associated test. We are interested in the statistical inference property of the non-centrality parameter estimate based on one observation (usually a summary statistic) from a truncated chi-squared distribution. This work is motivated by the application of the flexible two-stage design in case–control studies, where the sample size needed for the second stage of a two-stage study can be determined adaptively by the results of the first stage. We first study the moment estimate for the truncated distribution and prove its existence, uniqueness, and inadmissibility and convergence properties. We then define a new class of estimates that includes the moment estimate as a special case. Among this class of estimates, we recommend to use one member that outperforms the moment estimate in a wide range of scenarios. We also present two methods for constructing confidence intervals. Simulation studies are conducted to evaluate the performance of the proposed point and interval estimates.     

Modified weighted squared error estimation procedures with special emphasis on the stable laws

Two families of parameter estimation procedures for the stable laws based on a variant of the characteristic function are provided. The methodology which produces viable computational procedures for the stable laws is generally applicable to other families of distributions across a variety of settings. Both families of procedures may be described as a modified weighted chi-squared minimization procedure, and both explicitly take account of constraints on the parameter space. Influence func-tions for and efficiencies of the estimators are given. If x₁, x₂, …x_n random sample from an unknown distribution F , a method for determining the stable law to which F is attracted is developed. Procedures for regression and autoregres-sion with stable error structure are provided. A number of examples are given.     

Gamma-minimax results for the class of unimodal priors

Olman and Shmundak proved 1985 that in estimating a bounded normal mean under squared error loss the Bayes estimator with respect to the uniform distribution on the parameter interval is gamma-minimax when the parameter interval is sufficiently small and the class of priors consists of all symmetric and unimodal distributions. Recently, one of the authors showed that this result remains valid for quite general families of distributions which satisfy some regularity conditions. In the present paper a generalization to the class of unimodal priors with fixed mode is derived. It is proved that the Bayes estimator with respect to a suitable mixture of two uniform distributions is gamma-minimax for sufficiently small parameter intervals. To that end appropriate characterizations of a saddle point in the corresponding statistical games are established. Some results of a numerical study are presented.     

Families of power series distributions,with particular reference to the Lerch family

The paper revisits the concept of a power series distribution by defining its series function, its power parameter, and hence its probability generating function. Realization that the series function for a particular distribution is a special case of a recognized mathematical function enables distributions to be classified into families. Examples are the generalized hypergeometric family and the q-series family, both of which contain generalizations of the geometric distribution. The Lerch function (a third generalization of the geometric series) is the series function for the Lerch family. A list of distributions belonging to the Lerch family is provided.     

Dynamic Copula-Based Markov Time Series

This article examines a test procedure for checking the constancy of serial dependence via copulas for Markov time series data. It also provides a copula-based modeling approach for the dynamic serial dependence. Various parametric families of copulas offering different dependent structures are investigated. A score test is proposed for checking the constancy of a copula parameter. The score test is constructed and its asymptotic null distribution established under a two-stage estimation procedure. The test does not require specification of the probability distribution for the copula parameter. To capture the dynamics of dependence structure over time, autoregressive moving average and exponential type models are proposed. Illustrations are given based on simulated data and historic coffee prices data.     

Generating Ordered Families of Lorenz Curves by Strongly Unimodal Distributions

From any strongly unimodal density on the real line, it is possible to generate a one-parameter family of Lorenz curves. The resulting families of Lorenz curves are Lorenz ordered with respect to the indexing parameter. Symmetry of the unimodal density results in the generation of symmetric Lorenz curves. A related characterization of the normal distribution is presented.