On the detection of changes in autoregressive time series,II. Resampling procedures

We study an autoregressive time series model with a possible change in the regression parameters. Approximations to the critical values for change-point tests are obtained through various bootstrapping methods. Theoretical results show that the bootstrapping procedures have the same limiting behavior as their asymptotic counterparts discussed in Hušková et al. [2007. On the detection of changes in autoregressive time series, I. Asymptotics. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 137, 1243–1259]. In fact, a small simulation study illustrates that the bootstrap tests behave better than the original asymptotic tests if performance is measured by the α$\alpha$- and β$\beta$-errors, respectively.     

Lifetesting and estimation with arbitrary distribution function

We consider the problem of estimating the life–distribution F from censored lifetimes. The observation scheme is renewal testing over a long time horizon although the results can apply to survival testing with repetitions. We exhibit a product–limit estimator of F which is shown to be consistent and to converge weakly to a GAUSsian process. To do this we first extend these properties of the NELSON-AALEN martingale estimator to the family of PoissoN–type counting processes. Our proof of weak convergence is based on the general functional central limit theorems for semimartingales as developed by .JACOB, SHIRYAYEV and others     

A probablistic analysis for an optimal screening problem

Summary We consider a lotL formed byN apparently similar unitsW ₁,…,W _N, where each of theW _i may come from one of two different populationsP ₁ andP ₂;T ₁,…,T _N denote the corresponding lifetimes. The units fromP _i undergo a failure of kindi and their survival function isS _i (t). We assume that the failure rate function are known and that the units fromP ₁ are ?substandard?: λ ₁ (t)≥λ ₂ (t), ∀t≥0. We want to putW ₁,…,W _N under a pre-operational test (burn-in test) in order to eliminate at least a great part of the substandard units and we face the problem of obtaining a rule for stopping the test under the assumption that, with the failure of a unit, it is possible to recognize the population from which the unit comes. Such a problem will be formalized as an optimal stopping problem for a suitably defined Markov process. Our study shall evidentiate some fundamental aspects of the problem and the role of the prior distribution of the (random) numberM ₀ of those units inL coming fromP ₁ (substandard). The latter distribution has a great influence on the form of the solution. This research was supported by the C.N.R. Project ?Statistica Bayesiana e Simulazione in Affidalità e Modellistica Biologica?.     

Estimation and goodness-of-fit procedures for Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern bivariate copula of order statistics

In this study, we provide the Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern bivariate copula of rth and sth order statistics. The main emphasis in this study is on the inference procedure which is based on the maximum pseudo-likelihood estimate for the copula parameter. As for the methodology, goodness-of-fit test statistic for copulas which is based on a Cramér–von Mises functional of the empirical copula process is applied for selecting an appropriate model by bootstrapping. An application of the methodology to simulated data set is also presented.     

A generalized drop-the-loser rule for multi-treatment clinical trials

Urn models are popular for response adaptive designs in clinical studies. Among different urn models, Ivanova's drop-the-loser rule is capable of producing superior adaptive treatment allocation schemes. Ivanova [2003. A play-the-winner-type urn model with reduced variability. Metrika 58, 1–13] obtained the asymptotic normality only for two treatments. Recently, Zhang et al. [2007. Generalized drop-the-loser urn for clinical trials with delayed responses. Statist. Sinica, in press] extended the drop-the-loser rule to tackle more general circumstances. However, their discussion is also limited to only two treatments. In this paper, the drop-the-loser rule is generalized to multi-treatment clinical trials, and delayed responses are allowed. Moreover, the rule can be used to target any desired pre-specified allocation proportion. Asymptotic properties, including strong consistency and asymptotic normality, are also established for general multi-treatment cases.     

Stochastic volatility modelling in continuous time with general marginal distributions: Inference,prediction and model selection

We compare results for stochastic volatility models where the underlying volatility process having generalized inverse Gaussian (GIG) and tempered stable marginal laws. We use a continuous time stochastic volatility model where the volatility follows an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck stochastic differential equation driven by a Lévy process. A model for long-range dependence is also considered, its merit and practical relevance discussed. We find that the full GIG and a special case, the inverse gamma, marginal distributions accurately fit real data. Inference is carried out in a Bayesian framework, with computation using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). We develop an MCMC algorithm that can be used for a general marginal model.     

On the detection of changes in autoregressive time series I. Asymptotics

Various test statistics are discussed which can be used for detecting changes in the parameters of an autoregressive time series. In this first part of our study, the limiting behavior of the test statistics is derived under the null hypothesis of no change as well as under alternatives. In a forthcoming second part of our investigation, these asymptotic results will be compared to some corresponding bootstrap procedures, and a small simulation study will be conducted.     

On quadratic prediction problems in finite populations

For a finite population and its linear model, Liu and Rong proposed a notion of optimal invariant quadratic unbiased prediction (OIQUP) and offered two methods for studying this notion, in which the first is incomplete. In this note, we mainly aim at fulfilling the first approach used by Liu and Rong by considering a transformed matrix equation set through permutation matrix techniques. Solvability of the matrix equation set, optimality of the resulting predictor, and equivalence of the representations of OIQUP, derived in this note and by Liu and Rong, are investigated in detail. In addition, an application to predicting population variance is conducted based on a simulated population.     

Periodograms asymptotic distributions in periodically correlated processes and multivariate stationary processes: An alternative approach

Discrete time periodically correlated (PC) processes are viewed as the processes with time-dependent spectra. This, together with an auxiliary operator which is defined here is employed to apply classical results on the asymptotic distribution of the periodogram of the univariate white noise (innovations) to derive the asymptotic distributions of the periodograms for the PC processes and also for the multivariate stationary processes. We assume only the continuity and positive definiteness of the spectral densities together with the independence of the innovations.     

Estimating conditional tail expectation with actuarial applications in view

We develop statistical inferential tools for estimating and comparing conditional tail expectation (CTE) functions, which are of considerable interest in actuarial science. In particular, we construct estimators for the CTE functions, develop the necessary asymptotic theory for the estimators, and then use the theory for constructing confidence intervals and bands for the functions. Both parametric and non-parametric approaches are explored. Simulation studies illustrate the performance of estimators in various situations. Results are obtained under minimal assumptions, and the general Vervaat process plays a crucial role in achieving these goals.     

Bayesian design in queues: An application to aeronautic maintenance

We exploit Bayesian criteria for designing M/M/c//r$M/M/c//r$ queueing systems with spares. For illustration of our approach we use a real problem from aeronautic maintenance, where the numbers of repair crews and spare planes must be sufficiently large to meet the necessary operational capacity. Bayesian guarantees for this to happen can be given using predictive or posterior distributions.     

Sufficient conditions for Bayesian consistency

We introduce the Hausdorff α$\alpha$-entropy to study the strong Hellinger consistency of posterior distributions. We obtain general Bayesian consistency theorems which extend the well-known results of Barron et al. [1999. The consistency of posterior distributions in nonparametric problems. Ann. Statist. 27, 536–561] and Ghosal et al. [1999. Posterior consistency of Dirichlet mixtures in density estimation. Ann. Statist. 27, 143–158] and Walker [2004. New approaches to Bayesian consistency. Ann. Statist. 32, 2028–2043]. As an application we strengthen previous results on Bayesian consistency of the (normal) mixture models.     

Inferences from biased samples with a memory effect

Biased sampling occurs often in observational studies. With one biased sample, the problem of nonparametrically estimating both a target density function and a selection bias function is unidentifiable. This paper studies the nonparametric estimation problem when there are two biased samples that have some overlapping observations (i.e. recaptures) from a finite population. Since an intelligent subject sampled previously may experience a memory effect if sampled again, two general 2-stage models that incorporate both a selection bias and a possible memory effect are proposed. Nonparametric estimators of the target density, selection bias, and memory functions, as well as the population size are developed. Asymptotic properties of these estimators are studied and confidence bands for the selection function and memory function are provided. Our procedures are compared with those ignoring the memory effect or the selection bias in finite sample situations. A nonparametric model selection procedure is also given for choosing a model from the two 2-stage models and a mixture of these two models. Our procedures work well with or without a memory effect, and with or without a selection bias. The paper concludes with an application to a real survey data set.     

Bayesian mixture modeling for spatial Poisson process intensities,with applications to extreme value analysis

We propose a method for the analysis of a spatial point pattern, which is assumed to arise as a set of observations from a spatial nonhomogeneous Poisson process. The spatial point pattern is observed in a bounded region, which, for most applications, is taken to be a rectangle in the space where the process is defined. The method is based on modeling a density function, defined on this bounded region, that is directly related with the intensity function of the Poisson process. We develop a flexible nonparametric mixture model for this density using a bivariate Beta distribution for the mixture kernel and a Dirichlet process prior for the mixing distribution. Using posterior simulation methods, we obtain full inference for the intensity function and any other functional of the process that might be of interest. We discuss applications to problems where inference for clustering in the spatial point pattern is of interest. Moreover, we consider applications of the methodology to extreme value analysis problems. We illustrate the modeling approach with three previously published data sets. Two of the data sets are from forestry and consist of locations of trees. The third data set consists of extremes from the Dow Jones index over a period of 1303 days.     

The “Caterpillar”-SSA method for analysis of time series with missing values

The paper concerns the problem of applying singular spectrum analysis to time series with missing data. A method of filling in the missing data is proposed and is applied to time series of finite rank. Conditions of exact reconstruction of missing data are developed and versions of the algorithm applicable to real-life time series are presented. The proposed algorithms result in the extraction of additive components of time series such as trends and periodic components, with simultaneous filling in of the missing data. An example is presented.     

Variance estimation in the central limit theorem for Markov chains

This article concerns the variance estimation in the central limit theorem for finite recurrent Markov chains. The associated variance is calculated in terms of the transition matrix of the Markov chain. We prove the equivalence of different matrix forms representing this variance. The maximum likelihood estimator for this variance is constructed and it is proved that it is strongly consistent and asymptotically normal. The main part of our analysis consists in presenting closed matrix forms for this new variance. Additionally, we prove the asymptotic equivalence between the empirical and the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) for the stationary distribution.     

Laws of iterated logarithm for quasi-maximum likelihood estimator in generalized linear model

For the case that the expectation of the response variable Y   is correctly specified in the generalized linear model (GLM), under some regular assumptions, we obtain and prove the law of the iterated logarithm and Chung type law of the iterated logarithm for the quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) _βn${\beta }_n$ in this model.     

Confidence bands for ROC curves

We develop two methods to construct confidence bands for the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve without estimating the densities of the underlying distributions. The first method is based on the smoothed bootstrap while the second method uses the Bonferroni inequality. As an illustration, we provide confidence bands for the ROC curve using data on Duchanne Muscular Dystrophy.     

Nonparametric functionals of spectral distributions and their applications to time series analysis

There is a close analogy between empirical distributions of i.i.d. random variables and normalized spectral distributions of wide-sense stationary processes. Herein we make use of this analogy to develop nonparametric comparisons of two spectral distributions and nonparametric tests of stationarity versus change-point alternatives via spectral analysis of a time series.