Urban growth and population densities

Differences in the distribution of population within and across metropolitan areas are seen as a product of the development of the metropolis during different transportation epochs. Age cohorts of census tracts in Cleveland, Ohio, may be split into three groups of development patterns based on the time of their early development: (1) before the development of the automobile, (2) during the early period of the auto’s diffusion to the population, and (3) during the period of the mass diffusion of the auto. Patterns of population concentration and congestion across metropolitan areas are heavily selective of places with large population growth before the development of the streetcar and the automobile. More recent population growth has had little effect on population congestion but has led to a deconcentrated metropolis.     

Equalizing population denominators for australian metropolitan areas

Most population data are collected and tabulated in an aggregate form by censuses around the world in which political and economic considerations determine the geographic unit of the aggregation. Large spatial variation in population size among, units can limit comparative analysis among different subregions. Census population counts are often used as the denominator in rate calculations. This paper proposes the design of new districts for Australian metropolitan areas that will decrease the absolute range in population among districts. The transport algorithm is used for aggregation of Collection Districts in order to achieve this goal. The transport algorithm proved efficient in assigning CDs to a more equitable alignment of population in the selected Statistical Divisions. This method affords the spatial comparison of city settlement and socio-economic variables as well as deriving a stable denominator for these comparisons. The results demonstrate the advantages of equalized population denominators over those associated with the current statistical districts.     

The changing impact of white migration on the population compositions of origin and destination metropolitan areas

Increased migration to the sunbelt and the metropolitan-nonmetropolitan "turnaround" represent departures from long-standing redistribution trends. Although these patterns have been examined from a number of perspectives, their consequences for individual metropolitan areas have not yet been brought to light. In the present study, stream-disaggregated data for the late 1950s and late 1960s are employed to assess the impact of recent migration on the sizes and compositions of white populations in thirty-one large metropolitan areas. Most large northern SMSAs have been experiencing the "new" migration patterns since the late 1950s. They have incurred net out-movements of whites to both metropolitan and nonmetropolitan areas. In their exchanges with nonmetropolitan areas, however, they have managed to retain greater numbers of college graduates and professional workers. Southern and western SMSAs did not sustain losses to nonmetropolitan areas during either period. They did appear to gain both total and high status population as a result of interregional metropolitan redistribution.     

Natural mortality at different population densities of a pine shoot moth,Evetria cristata

Summary A field population ofEvetria cristata was studied in 10 plots in 1962 and in 6 plots in 1963. These plots were divided into 2 or 3 groups of different population levels of the shoot moth in respective years. The survival of the insect was then analysed in these different groups of plots. The survival rate ofE. cristata from eggs to adults in the first generation was found always higher in the group with low population density, which indicates the existence of some factors that affect the population more severely when the insect is more abundant.Lissonota evetriae andPediobius sp. seemed to have killed more proportion of the hosts where the shoot moth density was high. However, the total effect of the all natural enemies was not always great in the plots with high density of the moth. The survival of the second generation of the moth in 1963 was observed to be much higher at any population level than in the other generations.     

Social determinants of low birth weight in a high-risk population

Over ninety low-weight infants were born per thousand live births in South Carolina, based on 96,000 birth records from 1975 and 1979. Higher incidence of low birth weight for black infants cannot be explained away as a result of black/white differences in age or education of mothers, prenatal care, parity or length of birth intervals. Though all these factors are important predictors of birth weight, an increasing propensity to have low-weight babies persists among black mothers even after all these factors are controlled.     

United States population estimates and components of change: 1970 to 1987

This report analyzes year-to-year change in the US population from 1970 to 1987, including natural increase and net civilian immigration. Data are drawn from Current Population Reports. 1) The January 1, 1988 total population including Armed Forces overseas was over 245 million. This reflects a .9% increase over January 1, 1987, and an increase of 18 million since the April 1, 1980 census. 2) In the beginning of 1988, Whites numbered 206,979 million, Blacks 30,083, and Blacks and other races 38,130. 3) The crude birth rate dipped from 15.9 in 1980 to 15.6 in 1987; there is no evidence of a consistent trend since 1980. 4) The 3.8 million births in 1987 reflect a continuation of the gradual increase births that has been occurring since the mid-1970s, an increase attributed to Baby Boomers. 5) There was an 8.7/1000 death rate in 1987. This rate has fluctuated in the 8.5-8.7/1000 range since 1977 after declining from 9.4/1000 in 1972. The 2.1 million deaths in 1987 continue the gradual increase that has occurred since the end of the 1940s. This increase is attributed to the growth in population and to the population's continued aging. 6) Net immigrants/1000 population dropped slightly to 2.5 in 1987, down from 2.7 in 1986 and 3.7 in 1980. 7) Rates of growth for both Blacks and Whites have declined substantially since 1960; Blacks declined by about 1/3 (from 2.2%) and Whites by more than 1/2 (from 1.5%). The population of other races increased by 4.5% in 1987. The Black population grew by 1.5% in 1987, compared with a growth of .7% for the White population.     

Social security,social welfare and the aging population

This study examines the effects of pay-as-you-go social security programs in aging economies when the middle-aged both educate their dependent children and subsidize the retirement of the old. Using an overlapping generations framework in which agents are three-period lived but timing of death in the third period is uncertain, we analyze the effects of social security tax schemes, under various demographic assumptions, on capital accumulation, education expenditures, social welfare, and economic growth. We find that in many cases social security crowds out education, and reduces economic growth and social welfare. Received: 29 April 1998/Accepted: 3 March 1999     

A functional classification of metropolitan communities

Five major approaches to the functional classification of communities have been offered. Although most of them allow the recognition of a community as specialized in more than one function, their application necessitates consideration of the several individual functions one at a time. This paper offers a method for classification that takes account of the entire configuration of selected functions. Eight industrial groups were used in determining which SMSA’s of 1960 had similar configurations of functional activity. The procedure for determining this similarity, which reduced the job to a manageable size, is described as are the distinguishing functional configurations.     

Aggregate population and economic growth correlations: The role of the components of demographic change

The results of recent correlations showing a negative impact of population growth on economic development in cross-country data for the 1980s, versus “nonsignificant” correlations widely found for the 1960s and 1970s, are examined with contemporaneous and lagged components of demographic change, convergence-type economic modeling, and several statistical frameworks. The separate impacts of births and deaths are found to be notable but offsetting in the earlier periods. In contrast, the short-run costs (benefits) of births (mortality reduction) increase (decrease) significantly in the 1980s, and the favorable labor-force impacts of past births are not fully offsetting.     

Residential redistribution of socioeconomic strata in metropolitan areas

This paper is a preliminary report on an ecological analysis of recent changes in the spatial distribution of socioeconomic strata within 363 Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (or substituted units) in the United States. The central hypothesis guiding the study is that certain population subgroups in and around the larger urban areas are shifting their residential locations in predictable directions. Changes in the distribution of educational classes between the central city (or cities) and their surrounding rings from 1950 to 1960 are traced by using census data. A special feature of the analysis is the inclusion of 163 "lquasi-metropolitan areas" centered on cities that had 25,000-50,000 inhabitants in 1960.The initial results indicate that residential redistribution according to "social class" is occurring in all these metropolitan areas and that the pattern of change varies systematically. Regional differences are pronounced, and, as prior research has suggested, age of the city and population size appear to be important factors. The percent of adults in the high school and college categories in the rings of older and larger metropolitan areas generally increased disproportionately compared to the central cities. A variety of patterns of change, however, occurred among the younger and smaller metropolitan areas.Subsequent analyses will include (a) alternative methods of controlling color and regional location, (b) other measures of the independent and dependent variables used here, and (c) a multivariate approach to the problem of identifying and assessing the explanatory power of additional independent variables (including population growth, the over-all rate of decentralization, annexation history, economic base, and the character of the ring). The extent as well as the direction of change will also be investigated. Finally, the feasibility of quantifying an "evolutionary sequence" in the distribution of social classes will also receive attention.     

Patterns of residential segregation within a metropolitan ghetto

The residential segregation of families by income and by stage of the family life cycle within Milwaukee’s black community resembles in both pattern and degree that in the white community. The greater the difference in income, the more dissimilar are the distributions by census tract. Dissimilarity is greater between younger couples without children and older couples with children than between any other pair of family types defined by husband’s age and presence of children. However, segregation by income was substantially greater than by family type in 1960. The bases of selectivity of blacks in“changing” areas of the city, where the proportion black is still relatively low, and of whites in the“suburban” areas adjoining the city are similar. Families in the higher income groups and couples with children are over-represented in these areas. It would appear that given the pressures of limited housing space in the inner core of the black community, given the fact that certain amenities are not available in that area, and given the economic and social barriers which restrict the movement of blacks into the suburbs, the changing areas must function as“suburbs” for the black community.     

Social change,population policies,and fertility decline in Colombia and Venezuela

This paper takes a comparative case-study approach to examine the social and policy correlates of fertility decline. The analysis compares fertility behavior across a mature and young cohort of women in Colombia and Venezuela, two countries that experienced rapid demographic change under dissimilar socioeconomic and population policy conditions. Based on the distinction between birth-spacing and birth-stopping behavior the analysis tests several propositions derived from the adaptation and innovation explanations of fertility decline. Results show that fertility regulation at low parities was largely absent among mature women in both countries, representing an innovative behavior among younger women. The introduction of fertility control, however, was highly dependent on women's socioeconomic position, particularly their educational and occupational characteristics. The strong family planning programs in Colombia resulted in a more rapid extension of contraceptive use, particularly female sterilization, and stopping behavior after two children relative to Venezuela. Results highlight the diversity of conditions under which fertility can decline in developing countries and the importance of family planning and other policy initiatives to understanding the different pathways towards lower fertility.     

Gradients of metropolitan dominance in turkey: Alternative models

The dominance or influence of metropolitan centers in the developing country of Turkey, as measured by gradients of population characteristics (population density, percent urban, sex ratio, percent over five years of age, and percent literate) by distance from the nearest metropolitan center for 1960 and 1965, is found to decrease sharply from the central zone to the next zone (25–49 kilometers from the center), and then change very little with increasing distance from the center, for both urban and rural populations. None of several alternative mathematical models describes the form of the influence of metropolitan centers on the population characteristics of their hinterlands very well, but the best fitting models suggest that population density declines by distance according to an exponential function to the base e, percent urban declines according to a function to the one-fourth power, sex ratio declines for about 100 kilometers and then increases according to a quadratic function, and percent under six years increases and percent literate declines according to a linear function. These results suggest that dominance of a metropolitan center over its hinterland beyond 25 or 50 kilometers in Turkey is not very strong, possibly because of the relatively poorly developed transportation and communication systems. Although metropolitan dominance in Turkey in 1960 and 1965 seems to diminish more sharply with distance and to extend less far from the metropolitan center than in developed countries or than it may as Turkey develops economically and technologically in the future, additional comparative data over time in Turkey and in developed countries at the same time are needed for a rigorous test of this apparent finding.     

The consequences of metropolitan decentralization for personal gasoline consumption

It is often argued that more decentralized and spatially dispersed metropolitan areas require their residents to consume more gasoline than more centralized metropolitan areas. This notion is deduced from the assumption that, (1) populations decentralize, and (2) as this happens, people locate at distances farther removed from metropolitan centers which house most of the services, shops and jobs which suburban residents must travel to. In this article, it is argued that, at advanced stages of metropolitanization, the places to which people travel also decentralize and as this happens the gasoline consumption of metropolitan residents in more decentralized areas actually becomes lower than that of residents in more centralized areas. The latter argument is tested using multiple indicators of decentralization, and a number of control variables. All of the indicators of expansion relate to gasoline consumption in the predicted direction; the implications of this for energy and location policy are discussed.This research was supported in part by grants from the National Science Foundation (SOC 7826121 and SOC 77-07579), and the Program of University Research, U.S. Department of Transportation (80-193).     

The determinants of migration between standard metropolitan statistical areas

The primary purpose of this paper is to analyze the “determinants” of migration between Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas (SMSA’s) in the United States. The magnitudes in which various factors have influenced inter-SMSA migration are estimated both for the country as a whole and for individual SMSA’s. The “migration elasticities” estimated for individual SMSA’s are in turn used to test several additional hypotheses concerning migrant behavior. Other similar migration studies have found “wrong” signs or insignificant coefficients on certain variables a priori thought to play a crucial role in the migration process. Finally, we present clues to the causes of such “surprising” results.     

Occupational mobility and fertility in metropolitan Latin America

The relation between career mobility and reproductive behavior is examined for five cities of developing Latin American nations: Bogota, Columbia; San Jose, Costa Rica; Mexico City, Mexico; Panama City, Panama; and Caracas, Venezuela. The data are obtained from fertility surveys conducted between September, 1963, and August, 1964, in the above-named cities under the auspices of the Centro Latinoamericano de Demografía (CELADE), and the analysis is based on information from 600–800 women per city who have been married only once and married ten years or more. Career mobility is defined as an occupational change of the husband between the date of marriage and 1963–1964, based on the Hall-Jones occupational scale. Reproductive behavior is operationalized as the number of live births. The conclusion of the multiple classification analysis is that the process of career mobility in four out of five Latin American samples is not a significant factor in explaining differential reproductive behavior. These results are compatible with a variety of North American studies which stress that variation heretofore ascribed to the process of mobility is an additive composite of past and present status effects. These findings are discussed; a theoretical and methodological critique of mobility-fertility research is presented.     

City-suburban destination choices among migrants to metropolitan areas

An analysis of destination choices among metropolitan bound migrants in an already highly urban society is a means toward gauging trends in the urbanization process. The results of this paper indicated that destination choices were strongly influenced by SMSA size, with larger SMSAs and particularly their suburban rings attractive to migrants. This pattern suggested the further growth of the larger SMSAs, to the detriment of those smaller in size. In addition, the varied status of migrants entering the ring pointed toward its increased heterogeneity. Yet, among small SMSAs, the central city received more and higher-status migrants than the ring. Here, destination choice was also linked to similarity to the migrant's past residence. Regional differences emerged, and a closer examination of small and very large SMSAs suggested that destination choices were influenced by previous patterns of urban growth.