The Segmented Trend Line of Highest Life Expectancies

The well‐known Oeppen–Vaupel straight line of maximum female life expectancies showed that the highest life expectancy observed in a given year increased linearly from 1840 to 2000. Their analysis fueled major controversy, especially when used to extrapolate future improvements in life expectancy at the same pace. We improve on the empirical analysis by enriching the dataset, expanding the period to 1750–2005, and considering both maximum life expectancy at birth and lowest age‐specific survival rates. It clearly appears that the original Oeppen–Vaupel straight line must be divided into several segments characterized by different slopes and that each segment corresponds to a major advance in the health transition. There is room to push life expectancy higher, but unless some new breakthrough increases the human life span, progress will very likely decelerate as mortality reduction affects individuals at older and older ages. The main key to the future lies not in knowing whether the observed straight line can be extrapolated but in anticipating the next major health improvement that will lead to an additional increase in life expectancy.     

Estimates of mortality from infant mortality rates

Estimates of mortality rates and expectation of life at birth, using infant mortality rates, are examined on the basis of 150 life tables for both sexes. Least squares linear estimates are given as well as estimates of their variances. Model life table calculations, as proposed by the U.N. Population Branch, are then compared with these unbiased minimum variance estimates and shown to overestimate the expectation of life by more than two years on the average, and to be at most 68% efficient. Though better estimates are provided in this paper, their variance is still so large as to cast doubt on the practical usefulness of anv estimates based exclusively on infant mortality rates.     

Estimating infant and childhood mortality under conditions of changing mortality

Summary It is well known that estimates of infant mortality obtained using Brass's technique are very accurate. Biases are introduced, however, when one or more of the assumptions on which it relies are violated. Departures from the assumption of constant fertility may be handled by using a variant of the technique which depends on information on the age distribution of surviving children, rather than on indexes of the fertility function. Violations of the assumption of constant mortality - an increasingly common situation in most developing societies - produce upward biases in the estimates. The amount of bias is a function of the speed of mortality decline, the characteristics of the fertility pattern and, finally, of the age of the mother. This paper presents a simple technique which corrects these biases, and in addition, generates estimates of the parameters of the mortality trend. It differs from others in that it uses a cohort definition of mortality decline and relies on knowledge of the age structure of surviving children rather than on indexes of the fertility pattern.     

Infantile mortality rates

In this note a suggestion for calculating a more refined rate of infant mortality is put forward, which does not necessitate the tabulation of infant deaths by month of birth and death.     

Religious attendance and mortality: Implications for the black-white mortality crossover

This study investigates the relationships among religious attendance, mortality, and the black-white mortality crossover. We build on prior research by examining the link between attendance and mortality while testing whether religious involvement captures an important source of population heterogeneity that contributes to a crossover Using data from the Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly, we find a strong negative association between attendance and mortality. Our results also show evidence of a racial crossover in mortality rates for both men and women. When religious attendance is modeled in terms of differential frailty, clear gender differences emerge. For women, the effect of attendance is race- and age-dependent, modifying the age at crossover by 10 years. For men, however; the effect of attendance is not related to race and does not alter the crossover pattern. When other health risks are modeled in terms of differential frailty, wefind neither race nor age-related effects. Overall, the results highlight the importance of considering religious attendance when examining racial and gender differences in age-specific mortality rates.     

An evaluation of brass mortality estimates under conditions of declining mortality

An evaluation of the Brass childhood mortality estimates under conditions of declining mortality shows them to overestimate current mortality. Error increases as the rate of mortality decline increases, as the childhood age up to which cumulative mortality is being estimated increases, and as age at onset of childbearing decreases. We use the results to develop a method for correcting the Brass estimates for the effects of quasistability. The method requires an estimate of the rate of mortality decline within the population in addition to information on the pattern of childbearing in the population.     

Reconsidering mortality compression and deceleration: an alternative model of mortality rates

In this research we develop a model of mortality rates that parameterizes mortality deceleration and compression, permits hypothesis tests for change in these parameters over time, and allows for formal gender comparisons. Our model fits mortality data well across all adult ages 20-105 for 1968-1992 U.S. white data, and the results offer some confirmation of findings of mortality research using conventional methods. We find that the age at which mortality deceleration begins is increasing over time, that decompression of mortality is occurring, and that these trends vary substantially across genders, although male and female mortality patterns appear to be converging to some extent.     

Population studies of mortality

Population Studies has become the principal outlet for demographic research on mortality. Many of the advances in the measurement of mortality in data-poor countries were reported in its pages. It has also published most of the influential articles which attempted to make a broad-scale assessment of the sources of mortality change. These include special attention to developments in England and Wales and Sri Lanka. Capitalizing on the widespread availability of demographic surveys, articles in the 1980s featured careful analyses of the demographic correlates of child mortality. Such studies have passed the point of diminishing returns, and declines in child mortality have focused increased attention on conditions among adults. Unfortunately, demography has not developed the means for measuring and analysing adult mortality in underdeveloped countries that are equivalent in their power to methods for studying child mortality.     

The influence of first generation fertility and economic status on second generation fertility

This paper examines the impact of parental economic status and family size on the actual and expected fertility of adult children using longitudinal data from two generations of families participating in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics. There was a modest positive relationship between first generation family size and second generation fertility. More importantly, the ideal family size of the parental family was more closely related to fertility behavior and plans in the second generation than was actual parental family size. In addition, the data revealed the hypothesized negative correlation between parental financial status and second generation fertility behavior and plans. Several mechanisms which could produce the correlation between parental characteristics and the fertility of their children are explored.The analysis reported in this paper was supported by Contract NO1-HD-42856 from the National Institute for Child Health and Human Development, Center for Population Research. Dr. Thornton is affiliated with the Survey Research Center, Institute for Social Research, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48106. Requests for reprints should be directed to him.     

Mixed estimation of old-age mortality

"Section 2 will first extend the method of mixed estimation to maximum likelihood estimation in general. Then, we will review generalized linear models with logistic and Poisson regressions as examples. In Section 3 we discuss different approaches for formulating the auxiliary information in practice. Section 4 first reviews the method of Coale and Kisker, provides empirical estimates for it, and then proceeds with the mixed estimation variant. In Section 5 we apply the methods to the estimation of mortality at ages 80+ in Finland in 1980-1993. We will first consider the evidence for mortality crossover between males and females....Then we will estimate life expectancies at age 100." (EXCERPT)     

Evolution of fertility and mortality

Historical and current fertility trends in both Quebec and Canada as a whole are surveyed. While fertility among French Canadians was higher than that in neighboring provinces until the mid-20th century, in 1968 Quebec's crude birthrate was the lowest in Canada, and in 1972 it was 13.8 vs. 15.9 (the national birthrate). This reversal is explained in terms of the demographic transition theory, the declining influence of organized religion, and new opportunities for social mobility for minority groups. The birthrate throughout Canada is also declining. Although recent cohort studies are incomplete because women have not yet finished their reproductive years, it appears that completed family size will be lower than at any time in Canadian history. The period total fertility rate indicates an average family size of 1.8 children in 1976, but it is unclear whether this represents an actual reduction in family size or the postponement of childbearing. The sharpest fertility decline has been among women aged 35-49, but peak fertility rates have shifted from the 20-24 age group to those aged 25-29. Fertility is negatively related to education, and the lowest fertility is found among the intermediate income groups. Since the 1969 lifting of the ban on contraceptive sales and advertising, family planning activities have been stepped up. Also removed was the total ban on abortion. In 1975 there were 14.9 therapeutic abortions per 100 live births, but it has been charged that abortion standards are being applied inequitably from hospital to hospital.     

The momentum of mortality change

Mortality change is not usually assigned much importance as a source of population growth when future population trends are discussed. Yet it can make a significant contribution to population momentum. In populations that have experienced mortality change, cohort survivorship will continue varying for some time even if period mortality rates become constant. This continuing change in cohort survivorship can create a significant degree of mortality-induced population change, a process we call the 'momentum of mortality change'. The momentum of mortality change can be estimated by taking the ratio of e0 (the period life expectancy at birth) to CAL (the cross-sectional average length of life) for a given year. In industrialized nations, the momentum of mortality change can attenuate the negative effect on population growth of declining fertility or sustained below-replacement fertility. In India, where population momentum has a value of 1.436, the momentum of mortality change is the greatest contributor to its value.     

Estimation of contemporaneous mortality factors

Summary We present methods for solving and making statistical inferences about marginal attack rates based on observed death rates for contemporaneous mortality factors. The general method of solution involves solving a system of nonlinear equations which depend in part on competition coefficients that express the outcome when more than one agent attacks the same host individual. For two factors, we present a detailed analysis of the effect of varying this competition coefficient. Statistical inferences are illustrated using standard large sample approximations (the delta method) and the bootstrap, which is a resampling technique. We also extend the results to allow inferences fork-values.     

Beyond infant mortality: gender and stillbirth in reproductive mortality before the twentieth century

Though it has been the largest component of reproductive mortality since its statutory registration in 1928, stillbirth has received little attention from historical demographers, who have relied on the more orthodox indicator of early human survival changes - "infant mortality". The exclusion of stillbirth hampers demographic analysis, underestimates progress in newborn vitality, and over-privileges post-natal causes in theoretical explanation. A case is made for estimating stillbirth before 1928 as a ratio of early neonatal death, and for employing perinatal mortality as an historical indicator of female health status. The long-run trend of reproductive mortality (encompassing mature foetal and live born infant death during the first eleven months) reveals a substantial decline in perinatal causes in the first industrial century (1750-1850), implying a major concurrent improvement in the nutritional status of child bearers. Reproductive mortality is a more complete indicator of death in infancy. It offers demographers a means of fracturing the fertility versus mortality dualism and a potential purchase on gender as a demographic variable, while re-opening the case on mortality in the demographic dynamic of the world we have lost.     

The momentum of mortality change

Mortality change is not usually assigned much importance as a source of population growth when future population trends are discussed. Yet it can make a significant contribution to population momentum. In populations that have experienced mortality change, cohort survivorship will continue varying for some time even if period mortality rates become constant. This continuing change in cohort survivorship can create a significant degree of mortality-induced population change, a process we call the ‘momentum of mortality change’. The momentum of mortality change can be estimated by taking the ratio of e ₀ (the period life expectancy at birth) to CAL (the cross-sectional average length of life) for a given year. In industrialized nations, the momentum of mortality change can attenuate the negative effect on population growth of declining fertility or sustained below-replacement fertility. In India, where population momentum has a value of 1.436, the momentum of mortality change is the greatest contributor to its value.     

Infant mortality and birth intervals

Summary In the course of a demographic inquiry which also offered medical advice to the respondent women, information was obtained on the reproductive life and child mortality of women in three regions of Upper Volta. Foetal mortality rates are inversely correlated with fertility rates, whereas the opposite holds true of the mortality of children aged up to four years. An explanation of this phenomenon is attempted, showing how large variations in mortality rates continue to exist in developing countries. The second section of the paper deals with spontaneous abortions which happen much more frequently than is believed in Black Africa and with the effect of pathological sterility on birth intervals. Account is taken of the taboo on sexual relations after children have been born, a taboo which continues to be kept in the region studied and which as an important effect on inter-birth intervals.     

Child mortality in rural India

This paper focuses on infant and child mortality in rural areas of India. We construct a flexible duration model, which allows for frailty at multiple levels and interactions between the child’s age and individual, socioeconomic, and environmental characteristics. The model is estimated using the Indian National Family and Health Survey 1998/1999. The estimation results show that socioeconomic and environmental characteristics have significantly different impacts on mortality rates at different ages. These are particularly important immediately after birth. The parameter estimates indicate that child mortality can be reduced substantially, particularly by improving the education of women, providing safe water, and reducing indoor air pollution caused by dirty cooking fuels. Finally, we still found substantial differences in mortality rates between states, which are associated with differences in schooling expenditures, female immunization, and poverty rates.     

劳动力市场分割下乡城流动人口的就业分布与收入的实证分析--以武汉市为例

根据武汉市调查数据,对不同部门流动者的收入进行研究.结果表明,在建筑业、酒家、宾馆服务业和自雇经营等非正规部门内,乡城流动人口的受教育积蓄、参加培训等人力资本特征对收入有着显著的贡献,职业培训对流动者经济地位获得的重要性甚至不亚于正规教育的作用;而在那些类似的正规部门的"企业单位"、"机关、医院、院校"里打工的流动者,人力资本对收入的贡献不仅不显著,反而被严重扭曲.