少难成家、老无所依？性别失衡下的男性婚姻挤压与家庭发展风险

中国的出生性别比偏高长达近40年,男性人口过剩导致的男性婚姻挤压已带来系列严重后果,婚姻成本不断攀升、高价彩礼难以遏制、农村家庭发展面临严峻挑战。基于西安交通大学人口与发展研究所与法国国立人口研究所合作的“中国女性缺失背景下男性家庭性别角色和家庭生活调查”数据和西安交通大学新型城镇化与可持续发展课题组于2018年在全国11个省份收集的农业户籍人口专项调查数据,构建农村大龄未婚男性家庭发展风险分析框架与农村男性婚姻成本分析框架,使用定量分析方法,界定出农村大龄未婚男性家庭发展风险的主要场域,为婚姻场域、健康场域与养老场域;识别出各场域典型风险,为成婚风险、性健康风险与自身养老风险;构建出以国家治理模式为核心,以社会发展制度与家庭发展政策为支撑,以弱势群体家庭发展促进工作平台为突破点的农村大龄未婚男性家庭发展风险治理模式;定义了农村男性婚姻成本概念,包含婚房、彩礼、媒人中介费、婚礼四要素,识别出农村男性婚姻成本四种类型,为偏重彩礼型、偏重婚房型、彩礼-婚房并重型与混合型;揭示出农村男性婚姻成本变迁特征、结构性差异与关键影响因素;在对各级政府现行农村地区彩礼治理政策进行回溯分析与效果评价的基...     

大龄未婚男性流动人口的风险性行为及影响因素

以西安市28岁以上的大龄未婚男性流动人口为研究对象,进行了性行为相关内容的电子问卷调查,并收集农村大龄未婚男性进入城市后可能产生的风险性行为信息;通过分析明确了大龄未婚男性流动人口的风险性行为概况和人群特征,用逻辑斯蒂(Logistic)回归模型探析了其行为现状与影响因素。研究发现,大龄未婚男性流动人口在多个性伴侣与商业性行为表现出明显倾向;大龄未婚男性流动人口的经济条件年龄以及受教育程度对其风险性行为产生了影响;周围人群的风险性行为参与对大龄未婚男性流动人口的风险性行为参与产生带动作用;此外,无保护性行为在这一人群中的比例已经显著降低。     

中国农村大龄未婚男性的性行为调查和分析

性别失衡是男孩偏好的家庭和婚姻制度在人口结构中的最直接体现,同时由于“普婚制”和婚姻梯度模式的影响,性别失衡将通过婚姻挤压等方式对男女两性都产生不利影响。为了深入剖析性别失衡在个人层次的微观后果,利用安徽省JC区农村大龄男性的生殖健康和家庭生活调查数据,对性别失衡背景下中国农村大龄未婚男性的性行为进行了分析。结果发现农村大龄未婚男性的性福利受到损害,41％的人处于极度性匮乏状态,从未有过性生活;他们的平均性伴侣数量少,但类型多样,18％的人曾经为了发生性行为而付过钱,或得到过对方的钱;自慰是弥补大龄未婚男性性福利损害的一种重要方式,在一定程度上可以起到替代性伴侣的作用。最后指出了研究的局限性,并对未来的研究方向和策略提出了建议。     

农村大龄未婚男性的社会支持政策分析

农村大龄未婚男性问题是21世纪中国人口性别结构失衡的一项典型表现。文章从婚恋行为、个体福利、生活支持和公共安全影响等角度分析了农村大龄未婚男性的生存困境,从地区和年龄层面评述了针对该群体的社会支持政策。研究认为：为了应对该群体对社会经济发展全局的潜在负面影响,国家和政府需要采取行动改善该群体的生存状况,完善针对该群体的碎片化的社会支持政策,加快建设系统化的农村大龄未婚男性社会支持政策体系。     

贫困农村大龄未婚男青年的婚恋窘境分析——基于河南S村的实地研究

随着性别失衡社会影响与后果的逐步显现,贫困农村大龄未婚男青年面临婚恋窘境,俨然已经成为一个不容回避的现实问题。选择河南S村作为调研地,对该村20位大龄未婚男青年进行深入访谈,结果发现：该村大龄未婚男青年扎堆现象明显,面临严重择偶拥挤;婚姻攀比盛行,高额婚姻支付较为普遍;屡次遭受相亲失败,承受较大精神压力;长期处于单身状态,择偶标准大大降低。导致该村大龄未婚男青年面临如此窘境的原因主要集中在地理位置环境、家庭经济条件、自身文化水平以及农村传统观念等方面,为此,需要从加快农村经济建设、大力发展交通事业、强化综合技能培训、平衡男女性别比例以及加强青年心理疏导等方面入手,以缓解农村大龄未婚男青年的择偶难题。     

农村男性的婚姻状况与社会支持网络

利用在安徽省乙县农村的抽样调查数据,对大龄未婚男性与已婚男性的社会支持网规模和构成进行了比较,并分析了婚姻状况对农村男性社会支持网的影响以及两个群体社会支持网的影响因素差异。结果表明,婚姻状况显著地影响了农村男性社会支持网规模,失婚使大龄未婚男性获得的社会支持,尤其是情感支持远少于已婚男性;大龄未婚男性的社会支持来源也迥异于已婚男性,他们的支持网中有弱关系的可能性低于已婚男性。     

“光棍”聚集与社区公共安全——全国百村调查的研究发现

利用"百村调查"数据,从中观层次分析大龄未婚男性的生存现状与农村社区的公共安全情况,同时分析了"光棍"的聚集对农村社区公共安全的影响;分析发现,农村婚姻挤压现象非常普遍,多数被调查村庄存在大龄未婚男性群体,在中国的西部地区表现得尤为严重;"光棍"的聚集对农村社区公共安全的评价有显著的负面影响。     

农村留守妇女生存状况的真实写照 ———评《阡陌独舞———中国农村留守妇女》

自20世纪80年代,我国农村劳动力开始大规模向城市流动.以未婚青年男女和已婚男性为主的候鸟式的迁徙流动,使农村出现了大量分离式家庭,由此导致的留守儿童、留守妇女、留守老人现象及其问题逐渐引起社会各界的广泛关注.但对农村留守妇女的研究远滞后于对农民工、流动妇女、留守儿童的研究.由叶敬忠、吴惠芳等在历时两年对我国安徽、河南、湖南、江西、四川等农村劳动力输出大省农村留守妇女研究基础上著就的<阡陌独舞--中国农村留守妇女>全面系统、多侧面多视角地展示了我国农村留守妇女的生存状态、应对策略和社会支持.该书不仅为社会各界打开了一扇了解农村留守妇女群体的生存与发展状况的窗户,而且为政府和学界重新认识农村劳动力转移、乡城流动的影响,统筹解决城乡发展和人民生活问题,建立"以人为本"的社会发展政策提供了不可多得的论证依据.     

大龄未婚、失婚男性的居住方式和养老状况——以冀西北农村调查为基础

依据在冀西北农村所作的问卷调查数据和访谈资料,考察大龄未婚和老年失婚者的居住方式和养老安排。根据本项研究,青年和中年大龄未婚者因父母或父母一方多健在,与父母或父母一方共同生活是其主要选项;至50岁以上,特别是进入老年,父母多已故世,失婚者单独生活成为普遍现象。父母之外的亲缘资源对大龄未婚男性的帮助有限。大龄未婚男性对老年后生活费用供养和照料方式的期盼具有被动特征。他们在青年和中年阶段缺少养老安排规划和明确的养老打算,这种状况与社会性养老保险和保障制度不健全或接受度低有关。而老年失婚者对社会养老保障制度和福利制度的依赖已经形成刚性。     

都市中“大龄未婚女性”寻求自我定位的伦理透视

“大龄未婚女性”问题的出现,体现着社会性别制度建构的特征,这种根深蒂固的社会性别文化的影响,也是造成“大龄未婚女性”们择偶陷入困境的深层原因之一,而理想的爱情与现实的婚姻的状况也是“大龄未婚女性”们徘徊于婚姻的围城之外的重要因素.“大龄未婚女性”们要摆脱择偶困境,就要以主体的身份来定义自己,建构起真正的自我,在通过婚姻建立的家庭这个伦理实体中达到自我与他人的统一.     

智障人口特征及其生存发展——对南京市216名智障人15的调查

在南京市区采用问卷调查法对智障人口父母进行了调查。调查发现智障流行率特征有:男性多于女性,年龄呈学龄前人数比例低、学龄期高、青年期下降的特点,无论男女都存在严重婚姻障碍。智障等级上,轻度智障者比例最大、中度次之、重度和极重度最小。致病原因除先天、分娩、妊娠期等致病因素外,社会文化因素日益显著。智障人口在生活上绝大多数终身与家庭捆绑,智障者家庭养残不堪重负。据此提出四条相应对策。     

农村居民家庭生命周期各阶段教育与培训消费研究

在对家庭生命周期理论综述的基础上,依据我国农村居民家庭现阶段的特征,尝试着把我国农村居民家庭生命周期划分为结婚生育期、子女成长期、子女离巢期、空巢期、鳏寡寓居期五个阶段。在结婚生育期,农村妇女受教育水平偏低,不重视婴幼儿教育。在子女成长期,农村家庭对子女成长中教育要求低,方法不当,教育消费支出不足。从结婚生育期到空巢期,农村职业技术培训发展缓慢,轻视培训,职业技术培训动力不足。鳏寡寓居期,老年精神文化生活单调。为此,农村居民家庭需要提高妇女教育水平,注重胎教与儿童早期教育,重视对子女教育消费与家庭成员培训水平,提高老年人的精神文化生活水平,实现教育与培训消费效益在家庭生命周期内最大化。     

How Similar are Cohabiting and Married Parents? Second Conception Risks by Union Type in the United States and Across Europe

The increase in births within cohabitation in the United States and across Europe suggests that cohabitation and marriage have become more similar with respect to childbearing. However, little is known about additional childbearing after first birth. Using harmonized union and fertility histories from surveys in 15 countries, this study examines second conception risks leading to a live birth for women who have given birth within a union. Results show that women who continue to cohabit after birth have significantly lower second conception risks than married women in all countries except those in Eastern Europe, even when controlling for union duration, union dissolution, age at first birth, and education. Pooled models indicate that differences in the second conception risks by union type between Eastern and Western Europe are significant. Pooled models including an indicator for the diffusion of cohabitation show that when first births within cohabitation are rare, cohabiting women have significantly lower second conception risks than married women. As first births within cohabitation increase, differences in second conception risks for cohabiting and married women narrow. But as the percent increases further, the differentials increase again, suggesting that cohabitation and marriage are not becoming equivalent settings for additional childbearing. However, I also find that in all countries except Estonia, women who marry after first birth have second conception risks similar to couples married at first birth, indicating that the sequence of marriage and childbearing does not matter to fertility as much as the act of marrying itself.     

青岛市农村第一代独生子女家庭养老问题研究

我国的计划生育政策至今已实行近30年。目前,农村第一代独生子女大多已经就业,并且已经或即将组建新的家庭。因此,妥善处理好第一代独生子女家庭的养老问题,消除育龄夫妇的后顾之忧,是稳定现行生育政策和低生育率的关键。通过对青岛市农村的深入调研,可发现,青岛市第一代独生子女家庭具有与国内其他地区不同的地域性特征,也面临一些亟待解决的问题,需通过相应的对策建议来解决。     

Intentions to Live Together Among Couples Living Apart: Differences by Age and Gender

One of the central questions about LAT (living apart together) is whether these partnerships are short-term arrangements due to temporary constraints, and should be viewed as part of courtship towards cohabitation and marriage, or whether they replace cohabitation and marriage as a long-term arrangement. The current study addresses this question and examines intentions to live together among people living apart by age and gender. This study uses Generations and Gender Study (GGS) data for eleven European countries. The findings reveal an interesting interaction of age and gender. More specifically, younger women have higher intentions to live together than younger men, but older women have lower intentions than older men. These gender differences remain significant also in the multivariate analyses. These findings suggest that older women in LAT may be undoing gender to a greater extent than younger women, who still intend to live in a more traditional (and probably gendered) arrangement of cohabitation and possibly marriage. Having resident children reduces intentions to live together among people younger than age 50, but the effect does not differ by gender. The effect of non-resident children on intentions to live together is statistically non-significant.     

单独两孩政策下独生子女数量、结构变动趋势预测

基于2005年全国1%人口抽样调查资料及2010年“六普”特别汇总数据,对单独两孩政策下我国独生子女规模的测算方法、步骤、空间分布和年龄构成进行研究后发现：全国独生子女数量仍将持续增长,2050年将达到3.03亿人,但比原计划生育政策下将减少0.45亿人。独生子女的空间分布以城镇、东部地区较多,到2050年,城镇独生子女规模将达到2.70亿人,占独生子女的89.1%;独生子女省际分布差异大,到2050年,江苏、山东等12省区的独生子女存量在1 000万人以上,西藏、青海、海南则不到100万人。独生子女的年龄构成当前以40岁以下为主,到21世纪40年代中期转为40岁及以上中老年人为主,因此,应提前做好独生子女父母养老保障的应对工作。     

The timing of first birth

“The timing of first birth” is taken to mean the distribution of first births among a cohort of women. (1) How large is the final proportion of women who have at least one birth and (2) what is the distribution of women by age at first birth? “The percentage of non-fecund women” and “the age-specific risk for a fecund woman of remaining childless” are useful parameters in predicting final childlessness. These parameters are estimated. It is found that the risk of a fecund woman remaining childless is substantial even at the most common childbearing age. The effect of postponement of births on final childlessness is demonstrated and quantified. It is shown that the higher level of childlessness among women with long education can be explained by postponement of childbearing. The expression “later means fewer” is also true for first births. A method of predicting first birth rates, presented earlier by the author, is discussed and shown to give a good fit to Swedish data.     

农村劳动力外流对农村人口结构变化的影响-基于信阳市东双河镇10村的分析

农村劳动力的外流对农村的人口结构和农村经济的发展影响深远。农村劳动力外流会使农村留守人1：7中老人、妇女和儿童的比重偏大,农村经济发展的主体劳动力的年龄结构、素质结构失衡,严重影响农业产出效率的提高和农业科技推广。因此,应从农村劳动力流动模式转变、建立农村土地承包经营权流转市场、建立及完善农村社会保障体系、加强农民农业技能培训等方面彻底解决这些问题。     

上海市贫困女性老年人口特征分析

利用2003年"上海市老年人口状况与意愿跟踪调查"数据对上海市贫困女性老年人的人口学特征、经济支持和医疗保障等特征进行分析.分析发现:上海市老年女性人口中,农村的贫困女性老人在绝对数和比重两方面都高于城市;女性老年人的贫困比重高龄者高于低龄者;受教育程度低的女性老年人遭受贫困的风险明显高于受教育程度高者;丧偶老年妇女更容易陷入贫困;随着子女及孙辈经济支持水平的提高,女性老年人口陷入贫困的比重逐渐下降;医疗"完全自费"的老年妇女贫困比重高于能够享受医疗保障的老年妇女.     

Influential Factors Among Male Population,Which Associated with the Economic Violence Against Women in Laos

This article examined the influential factors among male population, which associated with the economic violence against women in Laos. The study was based on the Quantitative Research Methodology. The structured interview questionnaire was used to collect data from the sample population of 350 men, among 350 households settled in the rural areas of Vientiane Capital, Lao PDR. The Multiple Regression Analysis technique was applied to analyze data to identify the key influential factors associated with economic violence against women. The data collection was conducted in August 2015. The study showed that the majority of the male population are men whose aged between 30 and 39 (33.1%). 46% of the population engage in primary education, and 43.7% of them engage in secondary education. 83.1% of the population are rice farmer or other agricultural activities. The majority of the population (40.6%) has perpetrated the economic violence against women. On the specific issue of economic violence, 35.4% of the male population admitted that they do not like the idea of letting their wives to work outside their house. This study found that the health condition of men has a significant influence on economic violence against women, at the statistically significant level of 0.05. In accordance with the stipulated hypothesis of this study, data analysis showed that both the factor on experiencing violence and the factor on witnessing of violence have a significant influence on the level of economic violence against women in Lao, at the significant level of 0.01.