Erosion of Advantage: Decomposing Differences in Infant Mortality Rates Among Older Non-Hispanic White and Mexican-Origin Mothers

We build on findings from recent research showing an erosion of infant survival advantage in the Mexican-origin population relative to non-Hispanic whites at older maternal ages, with patterns that differ by nativity. This runs counter to the well-documented Hispanic infant mortality paradox and suggests that weathering and/or other negative health selection mechanisms may contribute to increasing disadvantage at older maternal ages. Using the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) cohort-linked birth and infant death files, we decompose the difference in Mexican-origin non-Hispanic white infant mortality at older maternal ages to better understand the contribution of selected medical and social risk factors to components of the difference. We find differences in the distribution and effects of risk factors across the three populations of interest. The infant mortality rate (IMR) gap between Mexican-origin women and non-Hispanic whites can be attributed to numerous offsetting factors, with inadequate prenatal care standing out as a major contributor to the IMR difference. Equalizing access to and utilization of prenatal care may provide one possible route to closing the IMR gap at older maternal ages.     

Separating the Signal From the Noise: Evidence for Deceleration in Old-Age Death Rates

Widespread population aging has made it critical to understand death rates at old ages. However, studying mortality at old ages is challenging because the data are sparse: numbers of survivors and deaths get smaller and smaller with age. I show how to address this challenge by using principled model selection techniques to empirically evaluate theoretical mortality models. I test nine models of old-age death rates by fitting them to 360 high-quality data sets on cohort mortality after age 80. Models that allow for the possibility of decelerating death rates tend to fit better than models that assume exponentially increasing death rates. No single model is capable of universally explaining observed old-age mortality patterns, but the log-quadratic model most consistently predicts well. Patterns of model fit differ by country and sex. I discuss possible mechanisms, including sample size, period effects, and regional or cultural factors that may be important keys to understanding patterns of old-age mortality. I introduce mortfit, a freely available R package that enables researchers to extend the analysis to other models, age ranges, and data sources.     

Comparative estimates of teenage illegitimacy in the United States, 1940–44 to 1970–74

Incompleteness in the reporting of illegitimate births in the U.S. vital registration system due to the consistent nonparticipation of a number of large States has left data published by the National Center for Health Statistics open to considerable criticism. Utilizing retrospective marriage and fertility data from the June 1978 Current Population Survey, a national probability sample of 54,000 interviewed households, a time series on teenage illegitimacy for first births is constructed that permits an evaluation of similar Vital Statistics data on teenage illegitimacy since the 1940s. Although there are some indications of a slight underreporting of white illegitimate first births by Vital Statistics during the 1940s and early 1950s, the overall comparison produces a general consensus between the two data sources on the incidence of illegitimacy among both white and nonwhite teenagers for the period 1940–44 to 1970–74.     

Factors Affecting Birth Rates among White Women 20–24 Years of Age: A Trend Analysis (January 1972–march 1992)

Using Current Population Survey data, Vital and Health Statistics data, photoperiod data and temperature data, this article attempts to provide an interdisciplinary explanation of monthly (N = 243) variation in the dependent variable representing the birth rate (the rate of conceptions that become live births) for white women 20–24 years of age. Among the selected explanatory variables, four were found to play significant roles in accounting for the variation of the birth rate. They were rates of female absence from the labor market (nonparticipation plus unemployment), male employment rates, length-of-night variations and the days in the month of conception. Rainwater's concept of validating activities (1974) and recent quality of life research regarding domains serve as a basis for development of the concepts compensatory validation and contextual compatibility. Research and policy implications are discussed.     

The Impact of Salmon Bias on the Hispanic Mortality Advantage: New Evidence from Social Security Data

A great deal of research has focused on factors that may contribute to the Hispanic mortality paradox in the United States. In this paper, we examine the role of the salmon bias hypothesis—the selective return of less-healthy Hispanics to their country of birth—on mortality at ages 65 and above. These analyses are based on data drawn from the Master Beneficiary Record and NUMIDENT data files of the Social Security Administration. These data provide the first direct evidence regarding the effect of salmon bias on the Hispanic mortality advantage. Although we confirm the existence of salmon bias, it is of too small a magnitude to be a primary explanation for the lower mortality of Hispanic than non-hispanic (NH)-White primary social security beneficiaries. Longitudinal surveys that follow individuals in and out of the United States are needed to further explore the role of migration in the health and mortality of foreign-born US residents and factors that contribute to the Hispanic mortality paradox.     

Does the Hispanic Paradox in U.S. Adult Mortality Extend to Disability?

Studies consistently document a Hispanic paradox in U.S. adult mortality, whereby Hispanics have similar or lower mortality rates than non-Hispanic whites despite lower socioeconomic status. This study extends this line of inquiry to disability, especially among foreign-born Hispanics, since their advantaged mortality seemingly should be paired with health advantages more generally. We also assess whether the paradox extends to U.S.-born Hispanics to evaluate the effect of nativity. We calculate multistate life tables of life expectancy with disability to assess whether racial/ethnic and nativity differences in the length of disability-free life parallel differences in overall life expectancy. Our results document a Hispanic paradox in mortality for foreign-born and U.S.-born Hispanics. However, Hispanics’ low mortality rates are not matched by low disability rates. Their disability rates are substantially higher than those of non-Hispanic whites and generally similar to those of non-Hispanic blacks. The result is a protracted period of disabled life expectancy for Hispanics, both foreign- and U.S.-born.     

The Quality of Male Fertility Data in Major U.S. Surveys

Researchers continue to question fathers’ willingness to report their biological children in surveys and the ability of surveys to adequately represent fathers. To address these concerns, this study evaluates the quality of men’s fertility data in the 1979 and 1997 cohorts of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY79 and NLSY97) and in the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG). Comparing fertility rates in each survey with population rates based on data from Vital Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau, we document how the incomplete reporting of births in different surveys varies according to men’s characteristics, including their age, race, marital status, and birth cohort. In addition, we use Monte Carlo simulations based on the NSFG data to demonstrate how birth underreporting biases associations between early parenthood and its antecedents. We find that in the NSFG, roughly four out of five early births were reported; but in the NLSY79 and NLSY97, almost nine-tenths of early births were reported. In all three surveys, incomplete reporting was especially pronounced for nonmarital births. Our results suggest that the quality of male fertility data is strongly linked to survey design and that it has implications for models of early male fertility.     

Uncrossing the U.S. Black-White Mortality Crossover: The Role of Cohort Forces in Life Course Mortality Risk

In this article, I examine the black-white crossover in U.S. adult all-cause mortality, emphasizing how cohort effects condition age-specific estimates of mortality risk. I employ hierarchical age-period-cohort methods on the National Health Interview Survey-Linked Mortality Files between 1986 and 2006 to show that the black-white mortality crossover can be uncrossed by factoring out period and cohort effects of mortality risk. That is, when controlling for variations in cohort and period patterns of U.S. adult mortality, the estimated age effects of non-Hispanic black and non-Hispanic white U.S. adult mortality risk do not cross at any age. This is the case for both men and women. Further, results show that nearly all the recent temporal change in U.S. adult mortality risk was cohort driven. The findings support the contention that the non-Hispanic black and non-Hispanic white U.S. adult populations experienced disparate cohort patterns of mortality risk and that these different experiences are driving the convergence and crossover of mortality risk at older ages.     

Age reporting among white Americans aged 85+: Results of a record linkage study

This study investigates age reporting on the death certificates of older white Americans. We link a sample of death certificates for native-born whites aged 85+ in 1985 to Social Security Administration records and to records of the U.S. censuses of 1900, 1910, and 1920. When ages in these sources are compared, inconsistencies are found to be minimal, even beyond age 95. Results show little distortion and no systematic biases in the reported age distribution of deaths. To explore the effect of age misreporting on old-age mortality, we estimate "corrected" age-specific death rates by the extinct-generation method for the U.S. white cohort born in 1885. With few exceptions, corrected and uncorrected rates in single years differ by less than 3% and are not systematically biased. When we compare corrected rates with those for the same birth cohort in France, Japan, and Sweden, we find that white American mortality at older ages is exceptionally low.     

Identifying race and ethnicity in the 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth

The 1979 National Longitudinal Survey of Youth is among the few surveys to provide multiple reports on respondents’ race and ethnicity. Respondents were initially classified as Hispanic, black, or “other” on the basis of data collected during 1978 screener interviews. Respondents subsequently self-reported their “origin or descent” in 1979, and their race and Hispanic origin in 2002; the latter questions conform to the federal standards adopted in 1997 and used in the 2000 census. We use these data to (a) assess the size and nature of the multiracial population, (b) measure the degree of consistency among these alternative race-related variables, and (c) devise a number of alternative race/ethnicity taxonomies and determine which does the best job of explaining variation in log-wages. A key finding is that the explanatory power of race and ethnicity variables improves considerably when we cross-classify respondents by race and Hispanic origin. Little information is lost when multiracial respondents are assigned to one of their reported race categories because they make up only 1.3% of the sample.

Paradox Revisited: A Further Investigation of Racial/Ethnic Differences in Infant Mortality by Maternal Age

I reexamine the epidemiological paradox of lower overall infant mortality rates in the Mexican-origin population relative to U.S.-born non-Hispanic whites using the 1995–2002 U.S. NCHS linked cohort birth-infant death files. A comparison of infant mortality rates among U.S.-born non-Hispanic white and Mexican-origin mothers by maternal age reveals an infant survival advantage at younger maternal ages when compared with non-Hispanic whites, which is consistent with the Hispanic infant mortality paradox. However, this is accompanied by higher infant mortality at older ages for Mexican-origin women, which is consistent with the weathering framework. These patterns vary by nativity of the mother and do not change when rates are adjusted for risk factors. The relative infant survival disadvantage among Mexican-origin infants born to older mothers may be attributed to differences in the socioeconomic attributes of U.S.-born non-Hispanic white and Mexican-origin women.     

The Significance of Education for Mortality Compression in the United States

Recent studies of old-age mortality trends assess whether longevity improvements over time are linked to increasing compression of mortality at advanced ages. The historical backdrop of these studies is the long-term improvement in a population's socioeconomic resources that fueled longevity gains. We extend this line of inquiry by examining whether socioeconomic differences in longevity within a population are accompanied by old-age mortality compression. Specifically, we document educational differences in longevity and mortality compression for older men and women in the United States. Drawing on the fundamental cause of disease framework, we hypothesize that both longevity and compression increase with higher levels of education and that women with the highest levels of education will exhibit the greatest degree of longevity and compression. Results based on the Health and Retirement Study and the National Health Interview Survey Linked Mortality File confirm a strong educational gradient in both longevity and mortality compression. We also find that mortality is more compressed within educational groups among women than men. The results suggest that educational attainment in the United States maximizes life chances by delaying the biological aging process.     

On the Survival of Centenarians and the Span of Life

It has been argued in the literature that the observed mortality crossover among older black Americans relative to the white population is a result of ‘differential early mortality which selects the least robust persons from the disadvantaged population at relatively earlier ages so that, at advanced ages, the disadvantaged population has proportionately more robust persons’ (Kenneth G. Manton). The authors examine the plausibility of the observed black mortality crossover and the heterogeneity argument supporting its existence. In addition to citing evidence from the literature, they use life tables from various countries known to have good mortality data to explore the relation between mortality in childhood and at younger adult ages and mortality in old age for cohorts and periods. Analysis suggests that the association between childhood and old-age mortality for cohorts is positive, implying that observed mortality crossovers are produced by deficient data rather than population heterogeneity.     

Levels and patterns of infant and child mortality in ghana

This paper attempts to measure infant and child mortality levels and also to determine their structure by utilizing the results of the 1968–1969 National Demographic Sample Survey which was conducted under the directorship of the author. Among the major problems encountered in the exercise are the adjustment of the current raw mortality data and the estimation of infant and child mortality from independent source material. The estimated infant mortality rates range from 56 per 1,000 live births in the Accra Capital District to 192 in the Upper Region during the late 1960’s. The urban rate is lower than the rural rate, 98 as against 161 per 1,000 live births. A large proportion of the deaths among children aged 0–4 occur in the second year of life, and deaths in this age group account for the bulk of the deaths within the age group 1–4 years.     

The effects of the welfare system on marital dissolution

The economic theory of marriage predicts that the partners expectations of greater financial resources outside of marriage should increase the probability of marital dissolution. One potential implication is that marriages should be less stable in states with higher AFDC benefits. I study this implication empirically using data on separations and divorces among marriages involving women in the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. I find no supporting evidence that higher welfare benefits lead to increased rates of marital dissolution among married women with children.I thank Mary Ellen Benedict, Madeline Zavodny, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments, and Saul Hoffman for providing his data on AFDC benefits. Responsible editor: T. Paul Schultz.     

Religious attendance and mortality: Implications for the black-white mortality crossover

This study investigates the relationships among religious attendance, mortality, and the black-white mortality crossover. We build on prior research by examining the link between attendance and mortality while testing whether religious involvement captures an important source of population heterogeneity that contributes to a crossover Using data from the Established Populations for Epidemiologic Studies of the Elderly, we find a strong negative association between attendance and mortality. Our results also show evidence of a racial crossover in mortality rates for both men and women. When religious attendance is modeled in terms of differential frailty, clear gender differences emerge. For women, the effect of attendance is race- and age-dependent, modifying the age at crossover by 10 years. For men, however; the effect of attendance is not related to race and does not alter the crossover pattern. When other health risks are modeled in terms of differential frailty, wefind neither race nor age-related effects. Overall, the results highlight the importance of considering religious attendance when examining racial and gender differences in age-specific mortality rates.     

Mortality among elderly hispanics in the United States: Past evidence and new results

We used vital records and census data and Medicare and NUMIDENT records to estimate age- and sex-specific death rates for elderly non-Hispanic whites and Hispanics, including five Hispanic subgroups: persons born in Cuba, Mexico, Puerto Rico, other foreign countries, and the United States. We found that corrections for data errors in vital and census records lead to substantial changes in death rates for Hispanics and that conventionally constructed Hispanic death rates are lower than rates based on Medicare-NUMIDENT records. Both sources revealed a Hispanic mortality advantage relative to non-Hispanic whites that holds for most Hispanic subgroups. We also present a new methodology for inferring Hispanic origin from a combination of surname, given name, and county of residence.     

Paradox lost: Explaining the hispanic adult mortality advantage

We tested three competing hypotheses regarding the adult "Hispanic mortality paradox": data artifact, migration, and cultural or social buffering effects. On the basis of a series of parametric hazard models estimated on nine years of mortality follow-up data, our results suggest that the "Hispanic" mortality advantage is a feature found only among foreign-born Mexicans and foreign-born Hispanics other than Cubans or Puerto Ricans. Our analysis suggests that the foreign-born Mexican advantage can be attributed to return migration, or the "salmon-bias" effect. However, we were unable to account for the mortality advantage observed among other foreign-born Hispanics.     

The Contribution of Smoking to Black-White Differences in U.S. Mortality

Smoking has significantly impacted American mortality and remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality. No previous study has systematically examined the contribution of smoking-attributable deaths to mortality trends among blacks or to black-white mortality differences at older ages over time in the United States. In this article, we employ multiple methods and data sources to provide a comprehensive assessment of this contribution. We find that smoking has contributed to the black-white gap in life expectancy at age 50 for males, accounting for 20 % to 48 % of the gap between 1980 and 2005, but not for females. The fraction of deaths attributable to smoking at ages above 50 is greater for black males than for white males; and among men, current smoking status explains about 20 % of the black excess relative risk in all-cause mortality at ages above 50 without adjustment for socioeconomic characteristics. These findings advance our understanding of the contribution of smoking to contemporary mortality trends and differences and reinforce the need for interventions that better address the needs of all groups.     

Hispanic Immigrant Poverty: Does Ethnic Origin Matter?

Hispanic immigrant poverty is nearly double that of other immigrants. Furthermore, poverty rates among Hispanic families differ substantially by ethnicity. This paper analyzes poverty rates for Hispanic and non-Hispanic immigrants, and also for individual Hispanic ethnic groups, to determine the relative importance of different covariates of poverty. The general conclusion is that low levels of education and fluency in English contribute to high Hispanic poverty rates and are also contributing factors to differences in poverty among Hispanic ethnic groups. In particular, the high poverty rate of Mexican immigrant households is associated with the low educational attainments of household heads, along with a relatively large number of children, relatively low English fluency and a relatively short tenure in the U.S. Immigrants from Guatemala and El Salvador have substantially lower poverty rates than Mexican immigrants despite a similar constellation of observable traits. Immigrants from South America have low poverty rates, largely due to strong family work effort and high educational attainments. The relatively low family work effort and high incidence of single parent families among Puerto Ricans overpowers the beneficial effects of higher rates of citizenship and English fluency.