International Migration, Sex Ratios, and the Socioeconomic Outcomes of Nonmigrant Mexican Women

This article assesses whether international migration from Mexico affects the marital, fertility, schooling, and employment outcomes of the Mexican women who remain behind by exploiting variation over time as well as across Mexican states in the demographic imbalance between men and women. I construct a gauge of the relative supply of men for women of different age groups based on state-level male and female population counts and the empirically observed propensity of men of specific ages to marry women of specific ages. Using Mexican census data from 1960 through 2000, I estimate a series of models in which the dependent variable is the intercensus change in an average outcome for Mexican women measured by state and for specific age groups, and the key explanatory variable is the change in the relative supply of men to women in that state/age group. I find that the declining relative supply of males positively and significantly affects the proportion of women who have never been married as well as the proportion of women who have never had a child. In addition, states experiencing the largest declines in the relative supply of men also experience relatively large increases in female educational attainment and female employment rates. However, I find little evidence that women who do marry match to men who are younger or less educated than themselves.     

The Role of Family and Friends in Return Migration and Its Labor Market Outcomes

Population Research and Policy Review - Drawing on survey data on individuals’ motives for migration in Sweden (N?=?2172), we examine the importance of family and friends for...     

Migration of the poor

One aspect of migration which has been largely overlooked by researchers is the migration of people receiving public assistance benefits. The migration, or lack of migration, of these people has clear policy implications. Poor people put numerous demands on the locality where they reside, including demands for welfare benefits. The research presented in this paper reveals that movers receiving AFDC payments are able to improve their economic standing more than those who do not move. It is also shown that states with a net in-migration of public assistance recipients but net out-migration of non-recipients do have higher benefit levels than states with net out-migration of recipients and net in-migration of non-recipients. Employment and income data do not show the same differences between the state types.     

流动人口家庭迁居的经济决策

文章在家庭"理性人"假设的基础上构建家庭迁居的经济决策模型,对家庭的迁居决策进行实证分析。研究发现,家庭通过对迁居的货币价值进行精确衡量,在不同生命周期阶段、不同的家庭结构类型的条件下,形成不同的迁居行为。在家庭实际迁居的过程中,为了维持家庭的抚养、赡养等功能,家庭的迁居策略可能并非最优化的经济决策。流动家庭会将部分社会成本进行内部消化,以减少流动行为对传统家庭功能的削弱。     

Migration in the Southeast

Between 1940 and 1960 the Southeast experienced both economic and demographic revolutions. They were interrelated in many ways. Agriculture was mechanized and reorganized making millions of farmers and farm laborers surplus. The natural assets of the region were developed and industry grew more rapidly than in other regions. There were marked changes in the labor force, a rapid increase in the proportion of women employed and a decrease in the proportion of Negroes. The level of family income rose faster than in other regions.Five and three quarter million persons were transferred from the farm population. A net of 2.7 million left the region and 3 million were absorbed in nonfarm areas within the region. In 1960 52 percent of the population was in cities. Increase was especially fast in metropolitan urban areas, mostly in suburbs. There were also substantial increases in the rural nonfarm areas. Small cities as a group showed no net in-migration. Among the net migrants out of the region the ratio was 4 colored to1 white.The age and sex distribution was warped, especially below age 30, slowing down the early marriage rate and the crude birth rate.The projection of the trend which was being followed in the early 1960s indicates that the regional rate of increase may overtake that of the rest of the country, being particularly rapid in the young adult and adolescent ages.For the purposes of this study the Southeast includes: South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana. These were originally the heaviest cotton producing states and the heart of the sharecropping area where the reorganization of the economy was particularly disruptive.     

Inferring Directional Migration Propensities from the Migration Propensities of Infants in the United States

Beginning with the 2010 decennial census, the U.S. Census Bureau plans to drop its long-form questionnaire and to replace it with the American Community Survey (ACS). The resulting absence of the larger sample provided by the census count will complicate the measurement and analysis of internal migration flows. In addition, the strategy of averaging accumulated samples over time will mix changing migration patterns. The migration question will refer to a one-year time interval instead of the five-year interval used in the censuses between 1960 and 2000, complicating historical comparisons and the production of multiregional projections based on five-year age groups. Consequently, students of territorial mobility increasingly will find it necessary to complement or augment possibly inadequate data collected on migration with estimates obtained by means of “indirect estimation.” A method is presented that allows one to infer age-specific directional migration propensities at the regional level from birthplace-specific infant population data, which approximates infant migration propensities, and from these infers the migration propensities of all other ages. The method is applied to at the nine-division spatial scale.     

Internal Migration and Development: Comparing Migration Intensities Around the World

Migration is the principal demographic process shaping patterns of human settlement, and it serves an essential role in human development. While progress has been made in measuring international migration, internal migration statistics are as yet poorly developed in many countries. This article draws on a repository of data established under the IMAGE (Internal Migration Around the GlobE) project to address this deficit by constructing the first comprehensive league table of internal migration intensities for countries around the world. We review previous work, outline the major impediments to making reliable comparisons, and set out a methodology that combines a novel estimation procedure with a flexible spatial aggregation facility. We present the results in the form of league tables of aggregate crude migration intensities that capture all changes of address over one‐year or five‐year intervals for 96 countries, representing four‐fifths of the global population. Explanation for the observed differences has been sought, inter alia, in historical, structural, cultural, and economic forces. We examine the links between development and migration intensity through simple correlations using a range of demographic, economic, and social variables. Results reveal clear associations between internal migration intensities and selected indicators of national development.     

U.S. internal Migration and Occupational Attainment: Assessing Absolute and Relative Outcomes by Region and Race

This paper investigates the occupational implications of contemporary migration flows by region and race. Even though the expectation of a positive link between geographic and social mobility is a central tenet in the stratification literature, empirical assessments are rare and have produced inconsistent results. Our analysis departs from traditional frameworks by integrating both absolute and relative notions of occupational standing for evaluating migration outcomes, comparing migrants against non-migrant peers both at origin and destination. Results document that for whites, migration is associated with higher occupational attainment both in absolute and relative terms, irrespective of the regional direction of the move. For blacks, on the other hand, absolute occupational gains are markedly absent for migration to the South, which is instead characterized by significant improvement in relative terms. The differences in absolute and relative gains by race and direction of the move helps contextualize the considerable black over representation in north–south migration and highlight the implications of current internal mobility for racial stratification.     

城乡劳动力流动与迁移回报率

本文从微观主体人力资本投资的角度来理解中国农村劳动力流动现象。提出应该将迁移作为一种投资方式单独进行考察。通过讨论迁移的预期成本和收益,发现与教育投资相比,迁移能得到较高的回报率,迁移回报率是吸引农村劳动力选择迁移流动到城市的重要因素。由此得出结论：农村劳动力向城市的迁移是一种理性选择的人力资本投资方式。要改变中国二十年来农村劳动力以低教育水平、低收入水平为特征的循环流动。必须尽快改善农村的人力资本投资环境。特别是教育环境．     

Migration as Social Movement: Voluntary Group Migration and the Crimean Tatar Repatriation

Voluntary group migration occurs when a collectivity reaches a group‐level decision to migrate and does so as a community without external compulsion. Typical examples include collective settler movements and voluntary repatriations of refugee communities. We demonstrate the distinctive characteristics of voluntary group migration that make it hard to analyze with current migration theories, and we develop an initial theoretical framework identifying the conditions that typically produce this type of population flow. Recognizing the collective nature of the mobilization that leads to voluntary group migration, we turn to social movement theory as a source of analytical tools that, in combination with concepts offered by prior migration theories, help us build an initial theory. To illustrate our ideas, we discuss an especially revealing contemporary case: the resettlement of Crimean Tatars to their original homeland.     

流动人口家庭化迁居水平与迁居行为决策的影响因素研究

本研究对家庭化迁居水平、迁居方式选择的影响因素进行量化分析。研究发现:经济收入是影响家庭迁居决策的刚性因素。流动家庭向老家的汇款金额与举家迁居行为呈负向关系。移民网络提供的迁移信息因乡土秩序排序呈现强弱关系差异。家乡中拥有的住房、土地等实物资本具有保险机制,会降低举家迁居的可能性。人力资本禀赋与迁居决策呈较为特殊的非线性关系。较大的家庭规模、未成年子女数量的增加,会使家庭采取谨慎、缓慢的方式进行迁居。迁入地的社会融入情况良好时,有助于促进流动家庭在城市长期定居。     

Internal Migration and Mental Health: An Examination of the Healthy Migration Phenomenon in China

Population Research and Policy Review - Using the 2008 and 2009 Rural–Urban Migration in China (RUMiC) survey data, two waves of a nationally representative survey dataset, this study...     

金融危机背景下俄罗斯失业人口的迁移研究

论文主要针对近几年内俄罗斯失业者与求职者的迁移问题,还有各地区相关专家的观点进行了综合分析。研究表明,对俄罗斯失业人口而言,实现迁移的重要因素是工资的实质性提高和迁移目的地的住房问题。在危机背景下,俄罗斯各地区的劳动力市场并未做出实质性调整,导致国内失业与求职人口的迁移积极性不高。因此,在促进国家内部流动和缓解劳动力市场的压力方面,国家的经济干预功能还需进一步强化。     

中国人口的迁移转变——基于迁移率的考察

经典人口转变理论侧重死亡和生育转变过程的测量、描述和解释,地理学家将迁移转变纳入人口转变框架,以完善人口转变理论。不过与死亡和生育转变研究不同,中国的迁移研究侧重基于对迁移流动人口规模和结构的考察分析,少有采用人口学意义上的迁移率指标的研究。文章利用2010—2015年历次中国综合社会调查的合并数据,通过人口学方法和泊松回归模型,计算和分析了1950—2015年中国人口迁移率趋势及社会经济差异。中国的迁移转变在宏观趋势上与中国的政治经济变迁高度一致。与死亡和生育转变相比,其波折性更强,说明更易受到经济社会政策变化的冲击。同时也观察到逢“0”和逢“5”年份的申报偏好。另外,迁移的社会经济差异明显。男性迁移率高于女性,但是两性差异在不断缩小;乡城迁移和未婚迁移大幅度增长;而越来越多受教育程度较高人群加入迁移,使得受教育程度越高的人群具有越高的迁移率。可以认为基于迁移率的考察揭示了中国迁移转变更具体生动的过程。     

中国清朝中期的人口迁移

清朝中叶,随着社会经济的恢复与发展,人口迅速增长起来,形成我国历史上第一个人口增长的高峰,人多地少的矛盾日益突出。为缓解严重的人口压力,失地农民和手工业者在无法生存的情况下被迫构成人口迁移的主力,由人口稠密地区向人口稀疏地区、由农村向商业经济发达的城市流动,使清中期的人口迁移出现新的特点及趋势。     

Report of the Global Commission on International Migration

In December 2003, “acting on the encouragement of UN Secretary‐General Kofi Annan,” the Global Commission on International Migration was established as an independent body, consisting of 19 Commissioners co‐chaired by Jan O. Carlsson, former Minister for Migration and Development, Sweden, and Mamphela Ramphele, formerly the World Bank's Managing Director, from South Africa. The mandate of the Commission was to “provide the framework for the formulation of a coherent, comprehensive and global response to the issue of international migration.” The work of the Commission was assisted by a Geneva‐based Secretariat and a “Core Group of States,” eventually including 32 governments from all world regions, that acted as an informal consultative body to the Commission. (The United States, the most important host country to immigrants, was not among the 32.) In October 2005, in New York, the Commission presented its Report to Kofi Annan, the UN member states, and other interested bodies. The Report is also intended as an input to intergovernmental discussion of international migration issues at the UN General Assembly in the Fall of 2006. The Report, an 88‐page document, is accessible at « http://www.gcim.org ». That web site also provides access to extensive background materials on selected topics concerning international migration, regional studies of international migration prepared for the Commission, and reports of the regional hearings, consultations with “stakeholders,” and expert meetings held by the Commission. Reproduced below are three sections of the Report: its Introduction (titled “Dimensions and dynamics of international migration”) and two of its four Annexes: “Principles for Action and Recommendations,” and a compendium of data: “Migration at a glance.” Under the impact of globalization, international migration, long an important element of demographic change as experienced by individual states, has acquired increasing salience in international relations and in domestic politics. National sovereignty in deciding about immigration policy (probably the key determinant of contemporary international migration flows) remains an established principle in international law, subject only to treaty obligations to admit bonafide refugees. Increasingly in recent years, however, demands have surfaced to treat such policies as matters to be decided bilaterally between sending and receiving countries, or even to be regulated by an international or supranational body. (For earlier voices discussing this topic see the Archives section of this issue and the Archives section of the December 1983 issue of PDR:“On the international control of migration.”) Unexpectedly to some observers, the Report of the Global Commission fell short of recommending establishment of a new, WTO‐like, international organization within the UN system with responsibility for international migration. It recommends, instead, steps to be taken toward an Inter‐agency Global Migration Facility. Whether or not such arrangements will materialize and be influential, the Commission clearly sees international migration flows, primarily from less developed to more developed countries, as increasing in the future. While not quantified, this vision contrasts with the assumptions incorporated in the often‐cited projections of the UN Population Division, which envisage future net migratory flows as either constant in size or even decreasing. The Report's argument rests primarily on the perceived economic benefits of migration to both receiving and sending countries, fueled by persisting income differentials and by contrasting demographic configurations between migrants' places of origin and destination. It gives short shrift to arguments that question the economic gains of mass migration to receiving countries, or that see such gains at best as minor and likely to be counterbalanced by noneconomic considerations. Nor does the Report gauge the likelihood that heeding its strictures for a more welcoming treatment of migrants would increase the incentives to migrate.     

农村劳动力异地转移行为研究

文章将农村劳动力异地转移行为分为边在家务农边寻找异地工作和先转移到异地再寻找工作两种方式,结果发现托达罗模型只能解释第二种方式,而实际调查证实中国农村劳动力异地转移主要采取第一种方式。作者建立了采用这两种方式进行异地转移的条件及如何在这两种方式之间进行选择的模型,分析了中国农村劳动力大量选择在家寻找工作模式的主要原因。