Foreign-Born Emigration From The United States: 1960 To 1970

This paper presents estimates of emigration of foreign-born persons by age and sex for 1960 to 1970, based on 1960 and 1970 census counts of the foreign-born population, adjusted life table survival rates, and annual statistics on alien immigration published by the Immigration and Naturalization Service. The effects of nativity bias are discussed. It is estimated that approximately 1,140,000 foreign-born persons emigrated between 1960 and 1970, of which 663,000, or 58 percent, were women and 477,000 were men. Almost one-quarter of the foreign-born emigrants were women 25–44 years of age in 1970. About 175,000 foreign-born persons 65 years and over in 1970 emigrated during the decade. The most significant finding, that more than one million foreign-born persons left the United States between 1960 and 1970, has important implications for U.S. immigration policy and for net immigration data used to estimate the population of the United States.     

Trends in Late-Life Activity Limitations in the United States: An Update From Five National Surveys

This article updates trends from five national U.S. surveys to determine whether the prevalence of activity limitations among the older population continued to decline in the first decade of the twenty-first century. Findings across studies suggest that personal care and domestic activity limitations may have continued to decline for those ages 85 and older from 2000 to 2008, but generally were flat since 2000 for those ages 65–84. Modest increases were observed for the 55- to 64-year-old group approaching late life, although prevalence remained low for this age group. Inclusion of the institutional population is important for assessing trends among those ages 85 and older in particular.     

Options to stress: Emigration and militancy in Northern Ireland

Who plans to emigrate in conflict situations is studied in the context of the civil strife in Northern Ireland. Using survey data, this study examines the correlates of emigration, militancy, and apathy with demographic, efficacy, participation and religiosity variables in both the dominant (Protestant) and subordinate (Catholic) communities. The results indicate that what explains plans to emigrate in the former group is not similar to the explanations for plans to emigrate in the subordinate group.     

Age-Specific Death Rates With Tobacco Smoking and Occupational Activity: Sensitivity to Sample Length,Functional Form,and Unobserved Frailty

In this article, we estimate accelerated time-to-failure and proportional-hazard functions with about 100,000 members of the Dorn sample, finding greater hazards associated with smoking and some dependence on occupational variables that measure risk and physical activity. We answer three questions: (1) How sensitive are the estimates to sample length, using monthly data for the periods 1954–1969 and 1954–1980? The results differ somewhat between these sample periods. (2) How sensitive are the estimates to alternative functions for the hazard? Within a given time period, the estimates are fairly robust to specification changes in the distribution of the hazard in the accelerated time-to-failure models. (3) How sensitive are the estimates to alternative controls for unobserved frailty? Within a given sample period, the estimates are fairly robust to the allowance for parametric or nonparametric heterogeneity in the proportional-hazard models.     

Separating the Signal From the Noise: Evidence for Deceleration in Old-Age Death Rates

Widespread population aging has made it critical to understand death rates at old ages. However, studying mortality at old ages is challenging because the data are sparse: numbers of survivors and deaths get smaller and smaller with age. I show how to address this challenge by using principled model selection techniques to empirically evaluate theoretical mortality models. I test nine models of old-age death rates by fitting them to 360 high-quality data sets on cohort mortality after age 80. Models that allow for the possibility of decelerating death rates tend to fit better than models that assume exponentially increasing death rates. No single model is capable of universally explaining observed old-age mortality patterns, but the log-quadratic model most consistently predicts well. Patterns of model fit differ by country and sex. I discuss possible mechanisms, including sample size, period effects, and regional or cultural factors that may be important keys to understanding patterns of old-age mortality. I introduce mortfit, a freely available R package that enables researchers to extend the analysis to other models, age ranges, and data sources.     

Mortality and Attrition Processes in Longitudinal Studies in Africa: An Appraisal of the Iford Surveys

This paper considers the impact of sample-attrition through dropouts on mortality analyses, using the pioneering IFORD survey of Yaounde (Cameroon). The essential issue in the IFORD surveys is the possibility that mortality of members of the cohort may differentially select some children, with specific underlying characteristics. The paper implements a method to assess the following three distinct concerns that may arise in the analysis of the IFORD data: (a) the estimation of the relationship between the covariates and the rate of occurrence of mortality or attrition over time; (b) the study of the interrelation between processes under a specific set of conditions during intervals between rounds for those children still alive and in the survey at the beginning of each interval; and (c) the issue of whether mortality and mortality differentials are affected when attrition is ignored. This approach accounts for sample-selection bias that may have resulted in the attrition process. The analyses provide insights into the debate, which has been ongoing since the late 1970s among students of African demography, regarding the selection problem in the IFORD surveys. Based on a multinomial survival modelling and bivariate probit with sample-selection framework, the results substantiate the belief that average levels and differentials of mortality would not have been different for children who dropped out from the survey than for those who remained in the survey. This is evidence that mortality estimates are virtually unaffected if attrition is ignored.     

从"民工潮"到"民工荒"--农村剩余劳动力有效转移的制度分析

"民工潮"和"民工荒"是中国农民非农化和城镇化过程中出现的非持久性的特殊现象,是中国农村剩余劳动力转移不顺畅、不合理的表现.造成这种现象的原因主要是各种制度上的缺陷,只有通过深化改革和创新制度,扫清制约农村剩余劳动力转移的各种制度障碍,使大多数农民顺利有效、持久稳定地实现非农化和城镇化,才能从根本上消除"民工潮"和"民工荒"这两种延长转移过程、增加转移成本、损害农民利益、不利于"三农"问题解决的非正常现象.     

Polygynists and Their Wives in Sub-Saharan Africa: An Analysis of Five Demographic and Health Surveys

Differential polygyny in Ghana, Kenya, Senegal, Uganda, and Zambia is investigated using individual-level Demographic and Health Surveys data. As well as contrasting polygynists' first wives with women in monogamous unions, the analysis distinguishes higher-order wives from first wives. This permits study of the determinants of the prevalence and intensity of polygyny respectively. Polygyny and other aspects of marriage interlock in very similar ways in all five countries. Individuals' experience of polygyny tends to reflect their luck in the marriage market rather than their socio-economic characteristics. While polygyny is less prevalent in urban areas, other socio-economic factors are important only in Kenya and Zambia, the two countries where less than 25 per cent of married women are in polygynous unions. The prevalence and intensity of polygyny are negatively associated. Thus, any drop in the prevalence of polygyny in Africa may be accompanied by a rise in the number of wives per polygynist.     

The Level and Age Pattern of Mortality in Bandafassi (Eastern Senegal): Results From a Small-Scale and Intensive Multi-Round Survey

The data collected in the Bandafassi demographic study in Eastern Senegal, a small-scale intensive and experimental follow-up survey of a population of about 7,000 in 1983, were analysed to derive an estimated life table. The use of multi-round surveys, combined with anthropological methods to estimate ages and collect genealogies, has resulted in unusually reliable data. Taking into account the uncertainty of the estimates due to the small size of the population, mortality was high, with life-expectancy at birth close to 31 years; a pattern of infant and child mortality close to that observed in other rural areas of Senegal, with a very high level or mortality between ages six months and three years; a seasonal pattern in child mortality with two high-risk periods, the rainy season and the end of the dry season; an adult mortality pattern similar to that described in model life tables for developed countries; no significant difference by sex or ethnic group. The Bandafassi population study and a few similar studies suggest that one possible way to improve demographic estimates in countries where vital registration systems are defective would be to set up a sample of population laboratories where intensive methods of data collection would continue for extended periods.     

Penetration and Growth Rates of Mobile Phones in Developing Countries: An Analytical Classification

This brief paper uses a simple arithmetic framework to classify and explain the performance of developing countries in closing the absolute digital divide. Four categories are created on the basis of two variables, namely, the penetration and rate of growth of mobile phones. The paper answers questions such as: Which countries do well and badly on both variables? Are the countries in these categories drawn from specific regions or similar income levels or is the distribution more random? How can similar countries from the same region appear in two diametrically opposite categories? What does this imply for policy?     

An Alternative Purging Method: Controlling the Composition-Dependent Interaction in an Analysis of Rates

The purging method controlling for the composition-group interaction developed by Clogg and his associates has proven useful in demographic research. This article proposes an alternative method, partial CD purging, that controls the interaction between composition and the dependent variable. The purged rates from this new method are invariant to changes in the marginal distribution of composition, but those from the earlier purging method are not. Mathematical relationships between the proposed method and other techniques are also explored.     

Composite Indices of Development and Poverty: An Application to MDGs

The measurement of development or poverty as multidimensional phenomena is very difficult because there are several theoretical, methodological and empirical problems involved. The literature of composite indicators offers a wide variety of aggregation methods, all with their pros and cons. In this paper, we propose a new, alternative composite index denoted as MPI (Mazziotta-Pareto Index) which, starting from a linear aggregation, introduces penalties for the countries or geographical areas with ‘unbalanced’ values of the indicators. As an example of application of the MPI, we consider a set of indicators in order to measure the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) and we present a comparison between HDI (Human Development Index) methodology, HPI (Human Poverty Index) methodology and MPI.     

中国城镇教育回报率及其结构变动的实证研究

文章利用中国健康与营养调查数据资料,考察中国城镇教育回报率的变化趋势,重点研究不同教育水平的收入结构和教育回报率结构的变化趋势,并采用相关的计量方法,有效地控制教育和收入的测量误差,以及样本选择性偏差的问题,以期对中国城镇教育回报率及其结构变动做出较为精确的估算。研究发现,在收入和教育回报率总体上升的同时,不同教育水平之间的收入差距和教育回报率差距呈现扩大的趋势;教育测量误差将导致教育回报率的低估;考虑样本选择性偏差的影响得到了高于OLS的估计结果。     

Subjective Indicators Construction by Distance Indices: An Application to Life Satisfaction Data

The construction of subjective indicators for measuring phenomena expressed in an ordinal scale is a central issue in social sciences, particularly in sociology and psychology. In this paper, we propose the use of a subjective indicator by groups of units (for example, by geographical area) based on the ‘distance’ between the empirical cumulative distribution and a hypothetical cumulative distribution of reference. This approach allows to avoid the awkward question of the ‘quantification’ of an ordinal variable, i.e., the conversion of an ordinal variable into an interval variable. As an example of application, we consider life satisfaction data coming from the annual multipurpose survey on “Aspects of Daily Life”, carried out by the Italian National Institute of Statistics, and we present a comparison with some classical methods.     

Direct Versus Indirect Questioning: An Application to the Well-Being of Farm Animals

Recent events suggest people are increasingly concerned not just with their own well-being but that of animals as well. However, there is little systematic evidence on people’s willingness-to-trade their own well-being and quality of life for improvements in the well-being of farm animals. In this paper, we utilize a straightforward and unobtrusive technique to mitigate socially desirability effects and gage the publics’ opinion about farm animal welfare: indirect questioning. In survey of United States households, we find sharp differences between direct and indirect questions related to farm animal welfare. For example, whereas only 15.6% of the public said they think low meat prices are more important than the well-being of farm animals, 67.5% said the average American thinks low meat prices are more important than the well-being of farm animals. This finding, coupled with the extant literature on indirect questioning, suggests that people’s concerns for farm animal welfare are actually much lower than what they say they are.     

International migration: From backwaters to high politics

Population and Environment -     

Measuring Household Wealth with Latent Trait Modelling: An Application to Malawian DHS Data

Public perceptions of crime and victimisation can influence an individual’s subjective well-being. Research into the impact of the fear of crime and victimisation on subjective well-being, however, has been limited; particularly with respect to the relative contributions of real versus perceived crime towards an individual’s self-reported life satisfaction. Improving our understanding of the relationship between crime and well-being is important, as public resources assigned to reducing or controlling crime could be assigned to addressing other social concerns. This paper extends the literature by exploring the contribution of real and perceived crime in an individual’s local area to their self-reported life satisfaction. Our results indicate that: (1) individuals’ perceptions of crime in their local area are far greater than actual levels of crime; (2) the gap between perceived and real crime is widening as real crime rates fall faster than the perceived rate of crime; (3) real crime rates detract more from an individual’s self-reported life satisfaction than perceived rates of crime; however, (4) perceived rates of crime have an adverse impact on life satisfaction beyond those associated with real crime; and (5) there is significant heterogeneity in the life satisfaction effects of real and perceived crime among groups of individuals. These results, together with empirical evidence highlighting successful strategies for moderating perceptions of crime, facilitate the development of more informed public policy that will improve individual life satisfaction and, ultimately, community well-being.     

Ensuring Parliamentary Gender Equality Through a New Zipper Method: An Application to Finland

Gender equality constitutes a crucial objective for a successful societal development. Although research has found that the differences are shrinking, parliamentary composition is not gender balanced in most areas of the world. Henceforth, recent literature has undertaken important efforts aimed at developing different initiatives to promote parity in democratic parliaments, especially through the use of quota systems. Prior initiatives, although leading to an improvement of gender parity, do not manage to ensure an optimal gender-egalitarian parliamentary composition. Thus, this paper presents a method to organize closed and blocked lists of candidates that guarantees the achievement of gender-balanced representation in parliamentary elections. Specifically, parity is sought globally, in each party and also in each electoral constituency. Furthermore, the method is applied to the elections held over the last two decades in Finland. Results reveal that parity in gender representation increases at global, party, and constituency levels throughout all the parliamentary elections in Finland, even approaching optimal numerical parity (i.e. 50 % for each gender) in most of the cases.     

From stagnation to growth: Revisiting three historical regimes

This paper explores the role of mortality in the long transition from Malthusian stagnation to sustained economic growth. An endogenous child mortality rate that varies inversely with parents standard of living is added to the framework in Galor and Weil (AER 2000). In our version of the model, the transition from stagnation to growth, triggered by an exogenous shock to technology, comprises a mortality revolution succeeded by a demographic transition.This paper has benefitted from discussions with and suggestions made by KarlGunnar Persson, Christian Schultz, and, particularly, Christian Groth at the University of Copenhagen. I gratefully acknowledge the insightful criticisms of two anonymous referees, and I thank Paula Madsen for English proof-reading. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno.