Is the male marriage premium due to selection? The effect of shotgun weddings on the return to marriage

In standard cross-sectional wage regressions, married men appear to earn 10 to 20% more than comparable never married men. One proposed explanation for this male marriage premium is that men may be selected into marriage on the basis of characteristics valued by employers as well as by spouses or because they earn high wages. This paper examines the selection hypothesis by focusing on shotgun weddings, which may make marital status uncorrelated with earnings ability. We compare the estimated marriage premium between white men whose first marriages are soon followed by a birth and other married white men in the United States. The return to marriage differs little for married men with a premarital conception and other married men, and the results suggest that at most 10% of the estimated marriage premium is due to selection. Received: 19 June 1998/Accepted: 10 July 2000     

结婚、生育对工资的影响研究 ——基于性别工资差距角度

随着技术进步和女性人力资本水平的提高,男性和女性的劳动生产率差异逐渐缩小,但性别工资差距在我国是否缩小?全面开放的"二胎政策"又是否加深了女性就业困境?本文使用CGSS 2015数据,从结婚、生育角度出发,运用工具变量法、分位数回归、Oaxaca-blinder分解等方法考察婚育事件对劳动力工资的影响及其作用机制,探讨婚育视角下的性别工资差距问题,提出相应对策建议以促进性别公平。研究首先通过对城镇劳动力的婚姻状态和生育情况与工资性收入进行实证分析,发现在控制了个人特征、人力资本、职业性质和地区等因素后,性别工资差距仍显著存在且婚育事件拉大了该差距。其中结婚使男女劳动力的工资水平均有所提高,但由于原始工资水平的差异和溢价大小的不同,性别工资差距被拉大;生育使男性工资增长,女性工资缩水,这同样加大了性别工资差距。其次基于分位数回归结果进行Oaxaca-blinder平均工资差异分解,结果显示随着收入的增加,性别工资差距在缩小,但婚姻和生育对此差距的解释力度却越来越大且相对稳定。即低收入群体的工资差距较大,但婚育对该差距的解释力度较小,相反高收入群体的性别工资差距较小,但婚育对该差距的贡献却很大。因此,缩小婚姻和生育造成的性别工资差距、消除性别歧视、保障女性职业的可持续发展是亟待解决的问题。     

我国男性的婚姻溢酬——基于内生选择性模型的分析

本文利用2008年的RUMiC（中印农民工调查数据）构造内生选择模型分析我国男性的婚姻溢酬。OI．S结果显示,控制个人特征和单位特征后,已婚男性的工资大于未婚男性的工资,婚姻溢酬为O．360。控制了婚姻选择性和妻子工作时间内生性后,使用Hekman两步法对此分析后发现婚姻溢酬更大一些,达到了O．523;这表明我国男性的婚姻溢酬不能简单归因于选择性假说,即已婚男性比未婚男性拥有更高的不可观测的生产力。进一步的研究发现,我国男性的婚姻溢酬可以用生产力假说中的家庭内部分工理论来解释,OLS和Heckman两步法的回归结果均表明,我国男性的婚姻溢酬随妻子的工作时间上升而下降。     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Knot yet</Emphasis>: minimum marriage age law,marriage delay,and earnings

Despite the historical highs for age at first marriage, little is known about the causal relationship between marriage delay and wages, and more importantly, the mechanisms driving such relationship. We attempt to fill the void. Building on an identification strategy proposed in Dahl (Demography 47:689–718, 2010), we first establish the causal wage effects of marriage delay. We then propose ways to distinguish among competing theories and hypotheses, as well as the channels through which marriage delay affects wages. Specifically, we take advantage of their different implications for causal relationship, across gender and sub-populations. We reach two conclusions. First, we find a positive causal impact of marriage delay on wages, with a larger effect for women. Comparison of IV and OLS estimates suggests that the observed relationship between marriage delay and wages is attributed to both selection in late marriages and true causal effects. Second, we find strong evidence that the positive, causal effects are almost exclusively through increased education for both men and women.     

家庭因素对性别工资差异的影响——基于CFPS数据的实证分析

随着职业性别隔离现象不断减少、男女受教育水平和教育收益率的逐步收敛,人力资本、职业和行业分布已经无法解释我国性别工资差异不断扩大的趋势。从家庭出发,考察婚姻、家务劳动分工和子女这些典型的家庭特征因素对性别工资差异的影响,运用2016年CFPS数据,在解决内生性问题的条件下,研究结果表明:婚姻通过增加女性家务劳动时间和子女间接影响女性工资,家务劳动时间和母亲身份对女性工资率具有显著的惩罚效应,女性平均每周承担家务劳动17小时,这导致其周工资率减少34%,子女降低母亲8.5%的周工资率;相对于未婚女性,已婚女性每周多做7小时家务,这降低了她们14%的周工资率。男性则存在婚姻溢价效应。Oaxaca分解也显示,家庭特征,尤其是家务劳动时间,是性别歧视之外导致性别工资差距的主要原因。本文按收入阶层的异质性分析表明,家庭特征可能引起低收入阶层更大的性别工资差异。本文的分析还显示,家务劳动对男性和女性具有门槛效应,且阈值位于10.5小时左右。     

The marriage squeeze

If the sex-age structure of the population is equilibrated, observed marriage patterns are assumed to reflect preferred mate selections. With regard to age, these preferences can be expressed in terms of the probabilities of unmarried persons of given ages marrying persons of various ages. To study the situation of unequilibrated sexes, these probabilities can be used to compute, for each combination of ages of groom and bride, the expected number of grooms and the expected number of brides. If either of these numbers exceeds the other, the corresponding sex is in a "marriage squeeze." The comparison among the expected number of grooms, that of brides, and the observed number of marriages supplies information on the effects of the squeeze.In Australia, marriage statistics of 1949 were considered to reflect preferred selections. In 1958, men of most ages were in a squeeze. As a consequence, some relatively younger and older men did not get married, and some relatively younger and older women improved their chances of marriage in the year under consideration. 291-299.     

Gender,Parenthood and Wage Differences: The Importance of Time-Consuming Job Characteristics

Using data from the Swedish Level of Living Survey (2000, 2010), we investigate how the gender wage gap varies with occupational prestige and family status and also examine the extent to which this gap is explained by time-consuming working conditions. In addition, we investigate whether there is an association between parenthood, job characteristics and wage (as differentiated by gender). The analyses indicate that there are gender differences regarding prestige-based pay-offs among parents that are partly explained by fathers’ greater access to employment characterized by time-consuming conditions. Separate analyses for men and women demonstrate the presence of a marriage wage premium for both genders, although only men have a parenthood wage premium. This fatherhood premium is however only present in high-prestigious occupations. Compared with childless men, fathers are also more advantaged in terms of access to jobs with time-consuming working conditions, but the wage gap between fathers and childless men is not explained by differences in access to such working conditions.     

劳动力就业城市选择对城市工资溢价的影响

中国逐步从定居社会转变为流迁社会,劳动力大范围流动体现在就业城市的自主选择上,该行为对城市工资溢价产生持续影响,同时城市工资溢价又影响劳动力的就业城市选择。利用2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,构建包含个体选择的处置效应模型,实证分析发现,中国存在城市工资溢价现象,劳动力的异质性特征和城市差异性特征显著影响就业城市选择行为;纠正劳动力城市选择的内生二元选择偏差后,发现中国特大城市和超大城市的工资溢价变大,而大城市的工资溢价消失,中小城市工资比大城市更有竞争力。中国城市体系中的首尾优势是劳动力理性选择就业城市的结果,这为中国实施差异化的城市发展政策来实现城市体系的整体优化和内部协调提供了新思路。     

Skewed Sex Ratios at Birth and Future Marriage Squeeze in China and India, 2005–2100

I examine the potential impact of the anticipated future marriage squeeze on nuptiality patterns in China and India during the twenty-first century. I use population projections from 2005 to 2100 based on three different scenarios for the sex ratio at birth (SRB). To counteract the limitations of cross-sectional methods commonly used to assess the severity of marriage squeezes, I use a two-sex cohort-based procedure to simulate marriage patterns over the twenty-first century based on the female dominance model. I also examine two more-flexible marriage functions to illustrate the potential impact of changes in marriage schedules as a response to the marriage squeeze. Longitudinal indicators of marriage squeeze indicate that the number of prospective grooms in both countries will exceed that of prospective brides by more 50% for three decades in the most favorable scenario. Rates of male bachelorhood will not peak before 2050, and the squeeze conditions will be felt several decades thereafter, even among cohorts unaffected by adverse SRB. If the SRB is allowed to return to normalcy by 2020, the proportion of men unmarried at age 50 is expected to rise to 15% in China by 2055 and to 10% in India by 2065. India suffers from the additional impact of a delayed fertility transition on its age structures.     

How do marital status,work effort,and wage rates interact?

How marital status interacts with men's earnings is an important analytic and policy issue, especially in the context of debates in the United States over programs that encourage healthy marriage. This paper generates new findings about the earnings-marriage relationship by estimating the linkages among flows into and out of marriage, work effort, and wage rates. The estimates are based on National Longitudinal Survey of Youth panel data, covering 23 years of marital and labor market outcomes, and control for unobserved heterogeneity. We estimate marriage effects on hours worked (our proxy for work effort) and on wage rates for all men and for black and low-skilled men separately. The estimates reveal that entering marriage raises hours worked quickly and substantially but that marriage's effect on wage rates takes place more slowly while men continue in marriage. Together; the stimulus to hours worked and wage rates generates an 18%-19% increase in earnings, with about one-third to one-half of the marriage earnings premium attributable to higher work effort. At the same time, higher wage rates and hours worked encourage men to marry and to stay married. Thus, being married and having high earnings reinforce each other over time.     

Trends in the Motherhood Wage Penalty and Fatherhood Wage Premium for Low,Middle, and High Earners

Many studies have shown that women pay a wage penalty for motherhood, whereas men earn a wage premium for fatherhood. A few recent studies have used quantile regression to explore differences in the penalties across the wage distribution. The current study builds on this research and explores trends in the parenthood penalties and premiums from 1980 to 2014 for those at the bottom, middle, and top of the wage distribution. Analyses of data from the Current Population Survey show that the motherhood wage penalty decreased, whereas the fatherhood wage premium increased. Unconditional quantile regression models reveal that low-, middle-, and high-earning women paid similar motherhood wage penalties in the 1980s. The motherhood wage penalty began to decrease in the 1990s, but more so for high-earning women than for low-earning women. By the early 2010s, the motherhood wage penalty for high-earning women was eliminated, whereas low-earning women continued to pay a penalty. The fatherhood wage premium began to increase in the late 1990s, although again, more so for high-earning men than for low-earning men. By the early 2010s, high-earning men received a much larger fatherhood wage premium than low- or middle-earning men.     

Catholicism and marriage in the united states

This study examines the effects of a Catholic background on age at first marriage, the odds of never marrying, and the odds of ever divorcing. Estimates using Catholic upbringing are compared with estimates using Catholic at the time of the survey. A case is made that if the latter measure of Catholicism is used, serious selection bias problems occur in some cases because this measure excludes defectors and includes converts. Further, it is shown that a Catholic upbringing generally has no effect on men’s age at first marriage and has a positive effect on the age when women marry. It is also shown that older Baptist men are substantially more likely than Catholic men to experience a divorce. Older Catholic women are somewhat less likely to experience a divorce than non-Baptist Protestant women. There is no Catholic effect on the odds that younger men and women will divorce.     

Selection and the Marriage Premium for Infant Health

Previous research has found a positive relationship between marriage and infant health, but it is unclear whether this relationship is causal or a reflection of positive selection into marriage. We use multiple empirical approaches to address this issue. First, using a technique developed by Gelbach (2009) to determine the relative importance of observable characteristics, we show how selection into marriage has changed over time. Second, we construct a matched sample of children born to the same mother and apply panel data techniques to account for time-invariant unobserved characteristics. We find evidence of a sizable marriage premium. However, this premium fell by more than 40 % between 1989 and 2004, largely as a result of declining selection into marriage by race. Accounting for selection reduces ordinary least squares estimates of the marriage premiums for birth weight, prematurity, and infant mortality by at least one-half.     

Immigrant employment and earnings growth in Canada and the USA: evidence from longitudinal data

We study the short-term trajectories of employment, hours worked, and real wages of immigrants in Canada and the USA using nationally representative longitudinal datasets covering 1996–2008. Models with person fixed effects show that, on average, immigrant men in Canada do not experience any relative growth in these three outcomes compared to men born in Canada. Immigrant men in the USA, on the other hand, experience positive annual growth in all three domains relative to US-born men. This difference is largely on account of low-educated immigrant men, who experience faster or longer periods of relative growth in employment and wages in the USA than in Canada. We further compare longitudinal and cross-sectional trajectories and find that the latter over-estimate wage growth of earlier arrivals, presumably reflecting selective return migration.     

Marriage selection and age patterns of mortality: a mathematical investigation

"In this paper, we use simulation models to demonstrate the complexity of the relationship between the marriage selection process and the resulting RMRs [relative mortality ratios]. In particular, we show that marriage selection alone can produce a relative mortality ratio which remains large and relatively constant at ages far beyond the marriage span....Our general objective...is to determine the range of age patterns of relative mortality which could, in theory, result from marriage selection on the basis of health characteristics. We also evaluate the effects of variations in the marriage selection mechanisms on the resulting mortality patterns....We develop and apply several simple mathematical models of the marriage selection process. In order to distinguish the potential consequences of marriage selection from marriage protection, we consider hypothetical populations in which causal effects are absent....We begin by considering an extremely simple marriage selection process and subsequently explore a more realistic selection model based on recent death and marriage rates for Japan."     

Cohabiting partners’ economic circumstances and marriage

Past studies of the transition to marriage generally have relied on information about only one individual or have attempted to measure characteristics of potential spouses indirectly. Drawing on data from the two waves of the National Survey of Families and Households (NSFH), we examine the effects of economic circumstances of both partners in cohabiting unions on the transition to marriage. Focusing on both partners in a relationship affords a more direct test of the relative importance of men’s versus women s economic circumstances. Our findings suggest that only the male partner’s economic resources affect the transition to marriage, with positive economic situations accelerating marriage and deterring separation. Our results imply that despite trends toward egalitarian gender-role attitudes and increasing income provision among women, cohabiting men s economic circumstances carry far more weight than women’s in marriage formation.     

Selection,selection, selection: the impact of return migration

The evidence on the impact of return migration on the sending country is rather sparse, though growing. The contribution of this paper is in addressing various selectivity problems while quantifying the impact of return migration on wages of returnees using non-experimental data. Using Egyptian household-level survey data, I estimate the wages of return migrants controlling for several selectivity biases arising from emigration choice, return migration choice, labor force participation choice, and occupational choice following return. The findings provide strong evidence that overseas temporary migration results in a wage premium upon return, even after controlling for the various potential selection biases. However, the estimates underscore the significance of controlling for both emigration and return migration selections. Ignoring the double selectivity in migration would overestimate the impact of return migration on the wage premium of returnees, as migrants are positively selected relative to non-migrants, but returnees are negatively selected among migrants.     

Marital status and mortality: The role of health

Prior literature has shown that married men live longer than unmarried men. Possible explanations are that marriage protects its incumbents or that healthier men select themselves into marriage. Protective effects, however, introduce the possibility of adverse selection: Those in poor health have an incentive to marry. In this paper we explore the role of health in explaining mortality and marriage patterns, and distinguish protective effects from two types of selection effects. We find adverse selection on the basis of health (unhealthy men tend to (re)marry sooner) and positive selection on the basis of unmeasured factors that both promote good health and encourage marriage.     

The effect of work absence on wages and wage gaps in Sweden

We use unique information about short-term absence from the labor market among Swedish employees to investigate the potential wage loss attributed to this type of absence. A reform in the Swedish health insurance system was used as an instrument. The results indicate that women's wages are significantly reduced by work absence due to own sickness, while absence to care for a sick child has no significant wage effect. For men, we find no support for effects on wages from short-term absence. We also show that the distribution of the gender wage gap depends to a large extent on work absence. Received: 29 September 1998/Accepted: 16 April 1999     

The fortunes of one's birth: Relative cohort size and the youth labor market in the United States

Using two different measures of relative cohort size – one indicating the size and placement of an individual's own birth cohort, and the other, the ratio of young to prime age adults in the United States in that year – it has been possible to isolate strong effects of the population age structure on wages in the United States over the past thirty-three years. These effects have been strong enough that virtually all of the observed change in the experience premium, and a substantial proportion of the changes in the college wage premium, can be explained by the relative cohort size variables alone. Even changes in the amount of within-group variance in wages appear to be largely a function of changing age structure, and absolute wage levels have been strongly affected by these demographic changes, suggesting that population growth can have positive effects on the economy. Received: 27 January 1998/Accepted: 6 June 1998