Predicting adult health and mortality from adolescent facial characteristics in yearbook photographs

Several important longitudinal studies in the social sciences have omitted biomarkers that are routinely recorded today, including height and weight. To account for this shortcoming in the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (WLS), an 11-point scale was developed to code high school senior class yearbook photographs of WLS participants for relative body mass (RBM). Our analyses show that although imperfect, the RBM scale is reliable (α = .91) and meets several criteria of validity as a measure of body mass. Measured at ages 17–18, the standardized relative body mass index (SRBMI) was moderately correlated (r = .31) with body mass index (BMI) at ages 53–54 and with maximum BMI reported between ages 16 and 30 (r = .48). Overweight adolescents (≥ 90th percentile of SRBMI) were about three times more likely than healthy-weight adolescents (10th–80th percentile of SRBMI) to be obese in adulthood and, as a likely consequence, significantly more likely to report health problems such as chest pain and diabetes. Overweight adolescents also suffered a twofold risk of premature death from all nonaccidental causes as well as a fourfold risk of heart disease mortality. The RBM scale has removed a serious obstacle to obesity research and lifelong analyses of health in the WLS. We suggest that other longitudinal studies may also be able to obtain photos of participants at younger ages and thus gain a prospectively useful substitute for direct measures of body mass.     

A Critical Examination of the Environmental Mastery Scale

The Psychological well being Inventory (PWBI) is a multidimensional instrument that has enjoyed widespread use in a variety of research initiatives, from small-scale studies to national surveys. Recent empirical investigation of the measure has raised questions about its validity. This study examines the factorial validity of the Environmental Mastery Scale of the PWBI, a construct that receives much attention in mental health research. The results of a confirmatory factor analysis did not support the unidimensional factor structure of the measure. Correlated uniqueness models were also examined, which did not reveal evidence of a method effect. There are problems with the measure at the item level, which also raises significant questions about the underlying theory of its parent measure. This research uses data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (WLS) of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Since 1991, the WLS has been supported principally by the National Institute on Aging (AG-9775 and AG-21079), with additional support from the Vilas Estate Trust, the National Science Foundation, the Spencer Foundation, and the Graduate School of the University of Wisconsin-Madison. A public use file of data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study is available from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 1180 Observatory Drive, Madison, Wisconsin 53706 and at http://www.ssc.wisc.edu/wls/data/. The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors.     

Re-evaluating gender differences in self-rated health: The importance of cohort

Research examining gender differences in self-rated health (SRH) has typically not distinguished between age and cohort-related changes in the health of men and women over time. Using longitudinal data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this study finds gender diffegrences in SRH may actually be an artifact of cohort. Prior to examining health across cohorts, women reported worse health than men. With the introduction of cohort to the models, no gender difference was found except in the earliest cohort (born 1924–1933). Historical context is therefore critical to understanding the health trajectories of women and men, which are not uniform across cohorts.     

Life Satisfaction Across the Lifespan: Findings from Two Nationally Representative Panel Studies

Two large-scale, nationally representative panel studies (the German Socio Economic Panel Study and the British Household Panel Study) were used to assess changes in life satisfaction over the lifespan. The cross-sectional and longitudinal features of these studies were used to isolate age-related changes from confounding factors including instrumentation effects and cohort effects. Although estimated satisfaction trajectories varied somewhat across studies, two consistent findings emerged. First, both studies show that life satisfaction does not decline over much of adulthood. Second, there is a steep decline in life satisfaction among those older than 70. The British data also showed a relatively large increase in satisfaction from the 40s to the early 70s. Thus, age differences in well-being can be quite large and deserve increased empirical and theoretical attention.     

Multiple-Indicator Multilevel Growth Model: A Solution to Multiple Methodological Challenges in Longitudinal Studies

This paper described the versatility of the multiple-indicator multilevel (MIML) model in helping to resolve four common challenges in studying growth using longitudinal data. These challenges are (1) how to deal with changes in measurement over time and investigate temporal measurement invariance, (2) how to model residual dependence due to the nested nature of longitudinal data, (3) how to model observed trajectories that do not follow well-known functions commonly discussed in the methodology literature (e.g., a linear or quadratic curve), and (4) how to decide which predictors are relatively more important in explaining individuals’ change over time. With an example of psychological well-being from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study, we illustrated how the four methodological challenges can be resolved using the 3-phase MIML procedures and the Pratt’s importance measures.     

Effects of receipt of Social Security retirement benefits on older women’s employment

Labor force participation of women has declined since 1999; however, labor force participation of women 62+ has increased. The 2000–2006 waves of Health and Retirement Study (HRS) data, the initial years of the continuing upward trajectory, were used to test the effects of receipt of Social Security retirement benefits on older women’s employment. The models tested: (a) the effect of receipt of Social Security retirement benefits on whether employed; and (b) for women receiving Social Security retirement benefits, the effect of age elected receipt of benefits on whether employed. Both models included the effects of human capital characteristics and income sources. Receipt of Social Security benefits, pension income, and current age reduced the likelihood of employment; while educational level, good to excellent health, and nonmarried marital status increased the likelihood of employment. The older the woman was when she elected Social Security benefits, the more likely she was to be employed.     

Sibship size and educational attainment. A joint test of the Confluence Model and the Resource Dilution Hypothesis

Studies on family background often explain the negative effect of sibship size on educational attainment by one of two theories: the Confluence Model (CM) or the Resource Dilution Hypothesis (RDH). However, as both theories - for substantively different reasons - predict that sibship size should have a negative effect on educational attainment most studies cannot distinguish empirically between the CM and the RDH. In this paper, I use the different theoretical predictions in the CM and RDH on the role of cognitive ability as a partial or complete mediator of the effect of sibship size to distinguish the two theories and to identify a unique RDH effect on educational attainment. Using sibling data from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (WLS) and a random effect Instrumental Variable model I find that, in addition to a negative effect on cognitive ability, sibship size also has a strong negative effect on educational attainment which is uniquely explained by the RDH.     

The Predictive Validity of Subjective Mortality Expectations: Evidence From the Health and Retirement Study

Several recent studies suggest that individual subjective survival forecasts are powerful predictors of both mortality and behavior. Using 15 years of longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study, I present an alternative view. Across a wide range of ages, predictions of in-sample mortality rates based on subjective forecasts are substantially less accurate than predictions based on population life tables. Subjective forecasts also fail to capture fundamental properties of senescence, including increases in yearly mortality rates with age. To shed light on the mechanisms underlying these biases, I develop and estimate a latent-factor model of how individuals form subjective forecasts. The estimates of this model’s parameters imply that these forecasts incorporate several important sources of measurement error that arguably swamp the useful information they convey.     

Does intergenerational mobility shape psychological distress? Sorokin revisited

Drawing from Sorokin's hypothesis that socially mobile individuals are at greater risk of experiencing psychological distress than their non-mobile counterparts, we investigate whether intergenerational occupational mobility influences psychological distress, as measured by the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression (CES-D) scale. Using data for men from the Wisconsin Longitudinal Study (WLS) and Sobel's Diagonal Mobility Models, we find little evidence for Sorokin's hypothesis; mobile individuals are no more likely to be psychologically distressed than their non-mobile counterparts. In fact, one group of mobile men - those who left their farming origins - are actually less distressed than the sons who remain as farmers and non-mobile men in higher-ranked social classes. We speculate that this reflects the fact that farming became very arduous during the late 20th century and these mobile sons of farmers appreciate their improved life chances. Our findings suggest that the association between mobility and psychological distress varies across specific class backgrounds and is contingent upon the broader social and economic context.     

Trust in American Government: Longitudinal Measurement Equivalence in the ANES, 1964–2008

For over 50 years (1958–2012) the American National Election Studies (ANES) survey has been measuring citizens’ evaluations of the trustworthiness of the “government in Washington”—an indicator that has been widely used to monitor the dynamics of political trust in the US over time. However, a critical assumption in using attitudinal constructs for longitudinal research is that the meaning-and-interpretation of such items should be comparable across groups of respondents at any one point in time and across samples over time. Using multigroup confirmatory factor analysis for ordered-categorical data, we test the measurement equivalence assumption with data collected by the ANES from 1964 to 2008. The results confirm that the ANES’ political trust scale has the same basic factorial structure over time. But for two key items, several threshold parameters were found to be different across time points, indicating that the meaning-and-interpretation of these questions, and especially the question about whether the government in Washington wastes money that people pay in taxes, varies significantly over time.

     

Experiential versus rational training: a comparison of student attitudes toward homosexuality

Based on Epstein's (1994a) cognitive-experiential self-theory, two new training interventions were designed to teach students about gay, lesbian and bisexual issues. The efficacy of these theoretically based interventions was assessed in a short-term (7-week, three occasion) longitudinal study. Fifty undergraduate psychology students were randomly assigned to one of three treatment groups: Rational Training, Experiential Training, or Control Group. A residualized change score procedure was used to analyze change in levels of sexual prejudice and affect across the three types of measurement (pre-test, post-test, and follow-up). A 3 (Rational Training, Experiential Training, Control Group) x 2 (Low Sexual Prejudice, High Sexual Prejudice) MANOVA revealed that after the training, participants in the Experiential Group (affective training) had more accepting attitudes toward homosexuality compared to the Control Group. In addition, participants in the Experiential Group experienced more positive affect compared to the Rational and Control Groups and experienced more negative affect compared to the Rational Group. Findings are discussed and suggestions for future research are provided.     

Are Parents Investing Less Time in Children? Trends in Selected Industrialized Countries

Trends in parental time invested in children since the 1960s are examined in 16 industrialized countries using time-use survey data. Despite the time pressures that confront today's families, parents appear to be devoting more time to children than they did 40 years ago. Results also suggest that mothers continue to devote more time to childcare than fathers, but the gender gap has been reduced. The consistency of these results across countries suggests a global trend toward an increase in parental time investment in children. Multivariate analysis of trends in parental time by type of activity was undertaken for Canada. It revealed a significant increase in parental time even after controlling for changes in the demographic composition of the population during the past few decades.     

The fallacy of the five million women: A re-estimate

Explicit policy to control fertility in the United States to date has focussed on the “unmet need” for contraceptive services in 1966 among an estimated five million poor and near-poor women. This paper reestimates the number of women in need of contraceptive services by disaggregating (on the basis of tabulations from the Current Population Surveys for 1966 and 1967, and the 1965 National Fertility Study) all poor and near-poor women into 54 subgroups differentiated by age, marital status, religion, and color. Data from the 1965 National Fertility Study, and from other studies, are then used to estimate for each subgroup deductions for sterility, pregnancy, waiting time for conception, and negative attitudes toward and current use of contraception. The residual number of women who both want and require contraceptive services, but do not have them, is estimated to be 1.2 million, rather than 4.6 million. The fact that the re-estimate takes into account both existing contraceptive practice and negative attitudes toward family limitation accounts for much of the difference between it and the original figure.     

Measuring LGBTQ Microaggressions: The Sexual Orientation Microaggressions Scale (SOMS) and the Gender Identity Microaggressions Scale (GIMS)

ABSTRACT

Microaggressions are brief and commonplace daily verbal, behavioral, or environmental indignities, intentional or unintentional, that demonstrate bias toward members of historically marginalized groups. While numerous quantitative studies on racial microaggressions have emerged in recent years, studies on sexual orientation and gender identity microaggressions have been mostly qualitative—likely due to limited measures of anti-LGBTQ microaggressions. In this three-part study, the Sexual Orientation Microaggressions Scale (SOMS) and the Gender Identity Microaggressions Scale (GIMS) are introduced to empirically explore the multifaceted experiences of microaggressions toward lesbian, gay, bisexual, and queer (LGBQ) people and transgender and gender nonconforming (TGNC) people. In Study 1 (N = 260), a principal components analysis yielded a five-factor structure of sexual orientation microaggressions; in Study 2, a new sample (N = 140) is used to confirm the utility of the SOMS. In Study 3, the GIMS is piloted with a sample of TGNC participants (N = 160). Implications for future studies are discussed.     

No trend in the intergenerational transmission of divorce

Previous studies on trends in the intergenerational transmission of divorce have produced mixed findings, with two studies (McLanahan and Bumpass 1988; Teachman 2002) reporting no trend in divorce transmission and one study (Wolfinger 1999) finding that divorce transmission has weakened substantially. Using a stratified Cox proportional hazard model, we analyze data from the National Survey of Families and Households and find no evidence for any trend in divorce transmission. To reconcile apparent differences in results, we note that the General Social Survey data used by Wolfinger lack information on marital duration, permitting analysis only for whether respondents have divorced by interview. As a result, an apparent decline in divorce transmission could be due to inadequate adjustments for the longer exposures to risk by earlier marriage cohorts, yielding a higher probability of divorce by interview for earlier cohorts relative to more recent cohorts even if divorce risks are identical across all marriage cohorts. We confirm this possibility by using a series of discrete-time hazard logistic regressions to investigate the sensitivity of estimates of trends in divorce transmission to different adjustments for exposure to risk. We conclude that there has been no trend in the intergenerational transmission of divorce.     

Risk of Developing Dementia at Older Ages in the United States

Dementia is increasingly recognized as a major source of disease burden in the United States, yet little research has evaluated the lifecycle implications of dementia. To address this research gap, this article uses the Aging, Demographics, and Memory Study (ADAMS) to provide the first nationally representative, longitudinal estimates of the probability that a dementia-free person will develop dementia later in life. For the 1920 birth cohort, the average dementia-free 70-year-old male had an estimated 26.9 % (SE = 3.2 %) probability of developing dementia, and the average dementia-free 70-year-old female had an estimated 34.7 % (SE = 3.7 %) probability. These estimates of risk of dementia are higher for younger, lower-mortality cohorts and are substantially higher than those found in local epidemiological studies in the United States, suggesting a widespread need to prepare for a life stage with dementia.     

The Simultaneous Effects of Socioeconomic Disadvantage and Child Health on Children’s Cognitive Development

Family socioeconomic status (SES) and child health are so strongly related that scholars have speculated child health to be an important pathway through which a cycle of poverty is reproduced across generations. Despite increasing recognition that SES and health work reciprocally and dynamically over the life course to produce inequality, research has yet to address how these two pathways simultaneously shape children’s development. Using longitudinal data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study and marginal structural models, we ask three questions: (1) how does the reciprocal relationship between socioeconomic disadvantage and child health affect estimates of each circumstance on children’s cognitive development?; (2) how do their respective effects vary with age?; and (3) do family SES and child health have differential effects on cognitive development across population subgroups? The results show that the negative effects of socioeconomic disadvantage and poor health are insensitive to their reciprocal relationships over time. We find divergent effects of socioeconomic disadvantage and poor health on children’s cognitive trajectories, with a widening pattern for family SES effects and a leveling-off pattern for child health effects. Finally, the effects of socioeconomic disadvantage are similar across all racial/ethnic groups, while the effects of child health are largely driven by white children. We discuss theoretical and policy implications of these findings for future research.     

The construction and validation of the homopositivity scale: an instrument measuring endorsement of positive stereotypes about gay men

Social scientists appear to focus on negative beliefs about, and attitudes toward, gay men and lesbian women. This emphasis, though understandable in view of the widespread oppression of gay and lesbian individuals, is somewhat myopic because it ignores what might be referred to as the positive dimension of stereotypes. Although such a concept may appear oxymoronic, it is widely recognized that individuals may endorse a mixture of positive and negative stereotypes toward stigmatized groups such as African Americans and women. The purpose of the current series of studies (Study 1, N = 212; Study 2, N = 105) was to devise an instrument measuring endorsement of positive stereotypes about gay men (Homopositivity Scale; HPS). Two versions of the HPS (of varying length) were evaluated, with scale scores on both appearing to be internally consistent and factorially distinct from scales measuring negative stereotypes and prejudices about gay men. These studies also suggest that females are more likely than males to endorse positive stereotypes about gay men, and that such endorsement is negatively associated with need for uniqueness and need for cognition, and positively associated with media contact and benevolent sexism. The limitations of the two studies are outlined and the importance of assessing positive stereotypes about gay men in conjunction with oft-examined homonegativity is discussed.     

The Changing Pattern of Educational Differentials in Divorce in the Context of Gender Egalitarianization: The Case of Taiwan

Regarding educational differentials in divorce, similar trends have been reported across countries. Some report increasing educational differentials, while others identify an educational crossover pattern. The commonality is that education seems to play a role of stabilizing marriage more than ever before. Using data from the Women??s Marriage, Fertility, and Employment Survey, this study investigates the case of Taiwan by portraying the changing pattern of women??s educational differentials in divorce. There are three major findings. First, among previous marriage cohorts, women with relatively higher levels of formal education are significantly more likely to divorce. Second, the marital-dissolution rates for less educated women are rising faster than the corresponding rates for women with more education. Third, this trend does not stop at the catch-up point and eventually leads to a reversal in the association between education and divorce from positive to negative. In short, such educational differentials in divorce vary dramatically across marriage cohorts. A pattern of educational crossover in divorce has been displayed during the rapid social change in Taiwan. Other than William Goode??s argument raised a half-century ago, the marriage model transformation from specialization toward symmetry in the context of gender egalitarianization has to be taken into consideration in order to obtain a full understanding of the phenomenon.