Impact of population changes on education cost

This paper has two principal aims: (1) to analyze and measure how the demographic variables—mortality, fertility, and im migration — affect the cost of education; (2) to evaluate what possibilities developing countries, such as those of Latin America, have for a rapid educational improvement. The paper relates demographic and educational variables of three different populations: Sweden, 1840–1965; the United States, 1850–1960; and Latin America, 1930–2000. Three educational variables are also considered: (a) school attendance rates by sex and age; (b) distribution of students of same age by grade; and (c) cost of student by grade. Demographic changes in countries such as Sweden and the United States were favorable for the development of education. For the future, unless an increase of fertility occurs, mortality and fertility changes will not have a significant effect on the cost of education in these countries. In current less developed countries the demographic changes during the past were less favorable to educational development. A future reduction of fertility will significantly help them to achieve a higher educational level.     

Registration completeness and international comparisons of infant mortality

The physical development of the live born infant is the single most important variable governing its survival: infant mortality among those weighing 2,500 grams (5 1/2 pounds) or less at birth is 17 times the mortality among those weighing more than 2,500 grams at birth. The variation in mortality according to birth weight (or gestation) is greater than for subclasses of color, sex, maternal age, or birth order. Infant mortality in the United States is significantly higher than in a number of other countries e.g., Sweden, Netherlands, Norway. The difference is thought, by some, to be due to underregistration of low birth weight infants in other countries. In this paper, distributions of live births by birth weight for Denmark, England and Wales, New Zealand, and the United States, and infant mortality data for Denmark and the United States are examined. The data do not support a hypothesis of gross underregistration of live born infants in other countries. The results indicate that some index of physical development (birth weight, gestation, or a combination of both) should be included in any appraisal of infant mortality.     

Disease prevalence,disease incidence,and mortality in the United States and in England

We find that both disease incidence and disease prevalence are higher among Americans in age groups 55–64 and 70–80, indicating that Americans suffer from higher past cumulative disease risk and experience higher immediate risk of new disease onset compared with the English. In contrast, age-specific mortality rates are similar in the two countries, with an even higher risk among the English after age 65. We also examine reasons for the large financial gradients in mortality in the two countries. Among 55- to 64-year-olds, we estimate similar health gradients in income and wealth in both countries, but for 70- to 80-year-olds, we find no income gradient in the United Kingdom. Standard behavioral risk factor’s (work, marriage, obesity, exercise, and smoking) almost fully explain income gradients among those aged 55–64 in both countries and a significant part among Americans 70–80 years old. The most likely explanation of the absence of an English income gradient relates to the English income benefit system: below the median, retirement benefits are largely flat and independent of past income, and hence past health, during the working years. Finally, we report evidence using a long panel of American respondents that their subsequent mortality is not related to large changes in wealth experienced during the prior 10-year period.     

Demographic Conditions Responsible for Population Aging

This article develops and applies two expressions for the rate of change of a population's mean age. In one, aging is shown to be negatively related to contemporary birth rates and death rates. In a general sense, aging occurs when vital rates are too low, as illustrated through applications to the United States, the Netherlands, and Japan. The other expression relates the rate of aging to a population's demographic history, in particular to changes in mortality, migration, and the annual number of births. Applications to the United States and Sweden show that the dominant factor in current aging in these countries is a history of declining mortality. Migration also contributes significantly but in opposite directions in the two countries. The two approaches are integrated after recognizing that the rate of change in the mean age is equal to the covariance between age and age-specific growth rates. A decomposition of this covariance shows that the two seemingly unrelated expressions contain exactly the same information about the age pattern of growth rates.     

Latin America and the Social Contract: Patterns of Social Spending and Taxation

This article analyzes the incidence of social spending and taxation by income quintile for seven Latin American countries, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Absolute levels of social spending in Latin America are fairly flat across income quintiles, a pattern similar to that in the United States and differing from the more progressive pattern of spending in the United Kingdom. The structure of taxation in Latin America is also similar to that of the United States. Because of high income inequality in Latin America and the US, the rich bear of most the burden, whereas the United Kingdom taxes the middle class to a greater extent. The analysis suggests that many Latin American countries are trapped in a vicious cycle in which the rich resist the expansion of the welfare state (because they bear most of its tax burden without receiving commensurate benefits), and their opposition to its expansion in turn maintains long‐term inequalities.     

The exceptionally high life expectancy of Costa Rican nonagenarians

Robust data from a voter registry show that Costa Rican nonagenarians have an exceptionally high live expectancy. Mortality at age 90 in Costa Rica is at least 14% lower than an average of 13 high-income countries. This advantage increases with age by 1% per year. Males have an additional 12% advantage. Age-90 life expectancy for males is 4.4 years, one-half year more than any other country in the world. These estimates do not use problematic data on reported ages, but ages are computed from birth dates in the Costa Rican birth-registration ledgers. Census data con rm the exceptionally high survival of elderly Costa Ricans, especially males. Comparisons with the United States and Sweden show that the Costa Rican advantage comes mostly from reduced incidence of cardiovascular diseases, coupled with a low prevalence of obesity, as the only available explanatory risk factor. Costa Rican nonagenarians are survivors of cohorts that underwent extremely harsh health conditions when young, and their advantage might be just a heterogeneity in frailty effect that might disappear in more recent cohorts. The availability of reliable estimates for the oldest-old in low- income populations is extremely rare. These results may enlighten the debate over how harsh early-life health conditions affect older-age mortality.     

Immigration and status exchange in Australia and the United States

This paper evaluates the status exchange hypothesis for Australia and the United States, two Anglophone nations with long immigration traditions whose admission regimes place different emphases on skills. Using log-linear methods, we demonstrate that foreign-born spouses trade educational credentials via marriage with natives in both Australian and U.S. marriage markets and, moreover, that nativity is a more salient marriage barrier for men than for women. With some exceptions, immigrant spouses in mixed nativity couples are better educated than native spouses in same nativity couples, but status exchange is more prevalent among the less-educated spouses in both countries. Support for the status exchange hypothesis is somewhat weaker in Australia partly because of lower average levels of education compared with the United States and partly because of the less sharply defined educational hierarchy at the postsecondary level.     

Obesity and excess mortality among the elderly in the United States and Mexico

Increasing levels of obesity could compromise future gains in life expectancy in low-and high-income countries. Although excess mortality associated with obesity and, more generally, higher levels of body mass index (BMI) have been investigated in the United States, there is little research about the impact of obesity on mortality in Latin American countries, where very the rapid rate of growth of prevalence of obesity and overweight occur jointly with poor socioeconomic conditions. The aim of this article is to assess the magnitude of excess mortality due to obesity and overweight in Mexico and the United States. For this purpose, we take advantage of two comparable data sets: the Health and Retirement Study 2000 and 2004 for the United States, and the Mexican Health and Aging Study 2001 and 2003 for Mexico. We find higher excess mortality risks among obese and overweight individuals aged 60 and older in Mexico than in the United States. Yet, when analyzing excess mortality among different socioeconomic strata, we observe greater gaps by education in the United States than in Mexico. We also find that although the probability of experiencing obesity-related chronic diseases among individuals with high BMI is larger for the U. S. elderly, the relative risk of dying conditional on experiencing these diseases is higher in Mexico.     

Childbearing Across Partnerships in Australia,the United States,Norway, and Sweden

This article compares mothers’ experience of having children with more than one partner in two liberal welfare regimes (the United States and Australia) and two social democratic regimes (Sweden and Norway). We use survey-based union and birth histories in Australia and the United States and data from national population registers in Norway and Sweden to estimate the likelihood of experiencing childbearing across partnerships at any point in the childbearing career. We find that births with new partners constitute a substantial proportion of all births in each country we study. Despite quite different arrangements for social welfare, the determinants of childbearing across partnerships are very similar. Women who had their first birth at a very young age or who are less well-educated are most likely to have children with different partners. The educational gradient in childbearing across partnerships is also consistently negative across countries, particularly in contrast to educational gradients in childbearing with the same partner. The risk of childbearing across partnerships increased dramatically in all countries from the 1980s to the 2000s, and educational differences also increased, again, in both liberal and social democratic welfare regimes.     

Pronatalist population policies in some Western European countries

This article is restricted to a comparison of four Western European countries: France, the Federal Republic of Germany, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. As the crude birthrates and total period fertility rates of these countries indicate, a stabilization of fertility has set in in France, the Netherlands and the United Kingdom. Official government attitudes towards these developments differ greatly, with France having clear pronatalist policy measures, the German Federal Government having only family policy measures, but some member states going further with a policy of family foundation loans. In the Netherlands and the United Kingdom, no official population policy exists, apart from a certain reluctance to accept more foreign immigrants. It must be concluded that the only common characteristic of population policies in the four countries is that they try to enable women to work and care for a family at the same time. The future effect of pronatalist population policy measures is still highly in doubt.This article was originally presented as a paper to the Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America, Washington DC, March 28, 1981.     

Diverging Trends in Female Old‐Age Mortality: The United States and the Netherlands versus France and Japan

In the most advanced countries, child mortality and adult mortality under age 65 years have fallen so low that further improvement in life expectancy relies almost completely on the decline of mortality at older ages. This phenomenon is particularly pronounced among women, who are far ahead of men in survival rates. Thus, to project the future of life expectancy, this study focuses on trends in female life expectancy at ages 65 and older. Four countries are selected for this analysis: the United States, Netherlands, France, and Japan. It is particularly interesting to understand why American and Dutch trends in female old‐age mortality have been diverging from those in France and Japan for two decades. It is shown here that most of the divergence derives from the fact that decline in cardiovascular mortality is more and more offset by increases in other causes of death in the United States and the Netherlands, while the other two countries are more successful in reducing mortality from all causes at increasingly older ages. This latter phenomenon could represent a new stage of the health transition.     

Credential inflation and educational strategies: A comparison of the United States and the Netherlands

This paper analyzes the trend in the effect of education on social class attainment, and uses this information to test hypotheses on the impact of credential inflation on educational decision making in the United States and the Netherlands. After having shown evidence for credential inflation of three educational transitions, it was shown that credential inflation between two generations increased the likelihood of making a transition into tertiary education in the Netherlands, and into high school completion and into 4-year university degrees in the United States. This supports the theory that education functions as a positional good, and if education loses value people need more of it in order to reach the same social class as their parents. Cross-national variation is explained with the theory that education in the United States functions more as a positional good than it does in the Netherlands.     

Changing Residence: Comparative Perspectives on its Relationship to Age,Sex, and Marital Status

Change of usual dwelling unit (house, flat, etc.) during a fixed period of time is the common denominator to measuring the amount of spatial mobility within different countries. Around 1980 or 1981, the percentage of population who moved from one dwelling unit to another in one year was over 19 per cent in New Zealand, 17–18 per cent in the United States, Canada, and Australia, 9–10 per cent in Great Britain, Sweden, Japan and France, 7–8 per cent in the Netherlands and Belgium, and 6 per cent in Ireland. Evaluation of ‘age schedules’ of local and non-local movement reveals especially high mobility among U.S. children, and a narrowing of mobility differences for older people between countries, particularly over local distances. Life-table techniques help to quantify the amount of mobility associated with different marital statuses, and bring into focus some of the sequelae of these statuses for men and women in different countries.     

Child Well-Being in Advanced Economies in the Late 2000s

This paper aimed at comparing the well-being of children across the most economically advanced countries of the world while discussing the methodological issues involved in comparing children’s well-being across countries. A Child Well-being Index was constructed to rank countries according to their performance in advancing child well-being. The Index used 30 indicators combined into 13 components, again summarised in 5 dimensions for 29 rich countries. Data from various sources were combined to capture aspects of child well-being: material well-being, health, education, behaviour and risks, housing and environment. The scores for the countries on all variables and combinations of variables were discussed in detail. The Child Well-being Index revealed that the Netherlands and the Scandinavian countries (excluding Denmark) did relatively better than the other countries while Romania and the United States performed well below the average. Overall, serious differences existed in child well-being across countries suggesting that in many, improvement could be made in the quality of children’s lives.     

Differential Survival in Europe and the United States: Estimates Based on Subjective Probabilities of Survival

Cross-country comparisons of differential survival by socioeconomic status (SES) are useful in many domains. Yet, to date, such studies have been rare. Reliably estimating differential survival in a single country has been challenging because it requires rich panel data with a large sample size. Cross-country estimates have proven even more difficult because the measures of SES need to be comparable internationally. We present an alternative method for acquiring information on differential survival by SES. Rather than using observations of actual survival, we relate individuals’ subjective probabilities of survival to SES variables in cross section. To show that subjective survival probabilities are informative proxies for actual survival when estimating differential survival, we compare estimates of differential survival based on actual survival with estimates based on subjective probabilities of survival for the same sample. The results are remarkably similar. We then use this approach to compare differential survival by SES for 10 European countries and the United States. Wealthier people have higher survival probabilities than those who are less wealthy, but the strength of the association differs across countries. Nations with a smaller gradient appear to be Belgium, France, and Italy, while the United States, England, and Sweden appear to have a larger gradient.     

Simulating the Effects of Acculturation and Return Migration on the Maternal and Infant Health of Mexican Immigrants in the United States: A Research Note

A significant body of research on minority health shows that although Latino immigrants experience unexpectedly favorable outcomes in maternal and infant health, this advantage deteriorates with increased time of residence in the United States. This study evaluates the underlying assumptions of two competing hypotheses that explain this paradox. The first hypothesis attributes this deterioration to possible negative effects of acculturation and behavioral adjustments made by immigrants while living in the United States, and the second hypothesis attributes this deterioration to the mechanism of selective return migration. Hypothetical probabilistic models are simulated for assessing the relationship between duration and birth outcomes based on the assumptions of these two hypotheses. The results are compared with the empirical research on the maternal and infant health of first-generation, Mexican-origin immigrant women in the United States. The analysis provides evidence that a curvilinear pattern of duration and birth outcomes can be explained by the joint effects of both acculturation and selective return migration in which the former affects health status over the longer durations, and the latter affects health status at shorter durations.     

A New Method for Determining Why Length of Life is More Unequal in Some Populations Than in Others

Why is there greater variability in individual longevity in some populations than in others? We propose a decomposition method designed to address that question by quantifying the effects of population differences in the spread, allocation, and timing of the principal causes of death. Applying the method to the United States and Sweden, we find that spread effects account for about two-thirds of the greater variance in age at death among American adults, meaning that two-thirds of the U.S.-Sweden difference would persist if the two countries differed only with respect to within-cause variance among adults. The remainder of the difference is due largely to allocation effects, with the greater incidence of homicides and fatal traffic accidents alone accounting for more than one-fourth of the greater variance in age at death among adults in the United States.     

UNIVERSAL VERSUS ECONOMICALLY POLARIZED CHANGE IN AGE AT FIRST BIRTH: A FRENCH-BRITISH COMPARISON

France and the United Kingdom represent two contrasting institutional models for the integration of employment and motherhood, respectively the 'universalistic' regime type that offers subsidized child-care and maternity-leave benefits to women at all income levels, and the 'means-testing' regime type that mainly offers income-tested benefits for single mothers. Using the two countries as comparative case studies, we develop and test the hypothesis that the socio-economic gradient of fertility timing has become increasingly mediated by family policy. We hypothesize and find increasing polarization in age at first birth by pre-childbearing occupation between the 1980s and 1990s in the U.K. but not in France. Early first childbearing persisted in the U.K. only among women in low-skill occupations, while shifts towards increasingly late first births occurred in clerical/secretarial occupations and above. Increases in age at first birth occurred across all occupations in France, but this was still much earlier on average than for all but low-skill British mothers.