全球人口干预与“新的中国选择”——超越“全面两孩”政策的思考

文章基于全球视角,利用联合国等机构发布的人口政策及生殖健康/计划生育数据,阐述国际社会人口调控与政策干预的总体变化趋势及特点,并在此基础上对未来中国计划生育的改革发展进行了思考,发现:近30多年来,在人口增长、生育水平、老龄化、生殖健康/计划生育以及国内乡-城迁移等人口政策的各个领域,全球采取不干预立场的国家数量和比例均在大幅下降,人口干预是世界性的时代潮流.全球超过90％的国家或地区都在践行计划生育,展现出这项实践的普适性、包容性和强大生命力.生殖健康促进极大地丰富和拓展了传统计划生育实践.建议中国的计划生育在人口政策等基本概念的区分、整合服务、“外围”政策支撑以及发挥社会组织“实体性”作用等方面推进改革创新.     

White Flight Revisited: A Multiethnic Perspective on Neighborhood Out-Migration

Using geo-linked data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and the decennial census, we compare probabilities of neighborhood out-migration for Anglos, blacks, Mexicans, Puerto Ricans, and Cubans by varying ethno-racial neighborhood compositions. Analyses for Latinos are disaggregated by nativity status. The results indicate that Anglos have a higher likelihood of moving when they have many minority neighbors and there is little difference whether minority neighbors are black or Latino. Among minorities there is some evidence of “minority flight” from whiter neighborhoods. Cubans, especially foreign-born Cubans, demonstrate the strongest propensity to flee neighborhoods with large black populations, whereas the probability of moving out decreases for Mexicans and Puerto Ricans when their neighbors are more likely to be black. Ethno-racial neighborhood composition has little effect on blacks’ decision to leave their neighborhood.

Neighborhoods in Development: Human Development Index and Self-organizing Maps

The Human Development Index (HDI) has been instrumental in broadening the discussion of economic development beyond money-metric progress, in particular, by ranking a country against other countries in terms of the well being of their citizens. We propose self-organizing maps to explore similarities among countries using the components of the HDI rather than rankings. The similarities approach using the HDI components reveals information which is not available from ranking or bilateral comparisons. By illustrating clusters of countries, which we call “neighborhoods in development”, self-organizing maps draw out the potential for mutual policy learning among countries and shift the focus to discovering what kind of policies might have led countries change their position in the rankings.     

Schools,Neighborhoods and Selection: Outcomes Across Metropolitan Los Angeles

What is the relationship between school segregation and neighborhood segregation across school districts in Los Angeles County, and are school district outcomes on reading and mathematics scores related to levels of school segregation across these districts? We compute segregation scores using US tract level data for 2000 and use reading and mathematics scores from California State tests. Data from the Los Angeles family and neighborhood survey are used to track individual residential changes and differences in the associated Woodcock Johnson scores. We show that there is a close link between levels of school segregation and neighborhood segregation and that many suburban school districts are relatively integrated across both neighborhoods and schools. When we examine average school district outcomes on reading and mathematics scores we do not find any relationship with levels of segregation. At the same time there is clear evidence of spatial sorting with poorer and lower scoring children moving into school districts (or zones with poorer achieving schools). The multi-level models of segregation and achievement show that the variance in achievement levels across districts is significantly greater than across schools within districts.     

Beyond the Dichotomy: Six Religious Views of Homosexuality

Using published theological and scholarly evidence, this article disrupts the stereotypical “born gay”/“sinful choice” dichotomy widely assumed to characterize religious views of homosexuality in the United States. It argues that we need to keep moral questions separate from questions about the fixity or fluidity of sexual orientation. Rather than two, American Christian and Jewish views of homosexuality can been seen on a range from the “God Hates Fags” view through “Love the Sinner, Hate the Sin,” “We Don’t Talk About That,” “They Can’t Help It,” “God’s Good Gift,” and a queer-theological view of the “Godly Calling.”     

Neighborhoods, Ethnicity and School Choice: Developing a Statistical Framework for Geodemographic Analysis

Geodemographics as the “analysis of people by where they live” has origins in urban sociology and social mapping, and is experiencing a renaissance in applied spatial demography. However, some commentators have expressed reservations about the statistical limitations of common geodemographic practices, especially focusing on the potential internal heterogeneity of the geodemographic groupings, as well as the problem of clearly identifying predictor variables that might account for or explain the socioeconomic patterns revealed by geodemographic analyses. In this paper we argue that geodemographic typologies are structured methods for making sense of the spatial and socioeconomic patterns encoded within complex datasets such as national census data. By treating geodemographics as more a framework than a tool for analysis in its own right we are able to integrate it with the flexibility and statistical conventions offered by multilevel modeling. We demonstrate this with a case study of whether pupils from different types of neighborhood in Birmingham, England are more or less likely to attend their nearest state-funded secondary school and how that likelihood varies with the ethnic composition of the neighborhood. In so doing we build on previous research suggesting that ethnic segregation between schools is at least equal to that between neighborhoods in England and speculate in this regard on the consequences of current government plans to extend choice to parents within a schools market.     

国际大都市人口发展战略对中国的启示——以广州市为例

新加坡、伦敦、东京、纽约等国际大都市在其发展过程中,都遇到了人口急剧增长带来的各种社会问题。这些城市在应对人口发展引发的各种问题时,综合考虑了本国的产业转型、资源现状以及公共服务供给等多方面因素,依据各自的特点,制定了不同的人口发展战略。建设人才高地,适应产业调整;通过产业转移,引导人口迁移;充分利用资源,均衡人口分布;完善公共服务,支持人口发展;建设中心城区,保持适度人口是这些城市给中国大城市人口发展战略制定带来的启示。     

多民族杂居地区民族交融实证研究——基于甘肃天祝藏族自治县的调查

在我国多民族杂居地区,民族交融仍然是当前民族关系的主流和常态,是不可忽视的重要趋势。以甘肃天祝藏族自治县藏土汉民族杂居地区为例,血缘交融、结构交融和文化交融三方面是当地民族交融最重要的特征,它们既相互独立,又彼此关照,也互相转化,更相倚实现。特别是在客观交融基础上的主观认同意愿的表达,反映了长期实践经历中建构起来的社会生产生活结构性特征。这些特征具体表现在族际通婚、居住格局、个体交往、语言使用、风俗习惯以及宗教信仰等方方面面的社会行为活动中。     

Redefining Neighborhoods Using Common Destinations: Social Characteristics of Activity Spaces and Home Census Tracts Compared

Research on neighborhood effects has focused largely on residential neighborhoods, but people are exposed to many other places in the course of their daily lives—at school, at work, when shopping, and so on. Thus, studies of residential neighborhoods consider only a subset of the social-spatial environment affecting individuals. In this article, we examine the characteristics of adults’ “activity spaces”—spaces defined by locations that individuals visit regularly—in Los Angeles County, California. Using geographic information system (GIS) methods, we define activity spaces in two ways and estimate their socioeconomic characteristics. Our research has two goals. First, we determine whether residential neighborhoods represent the social conditions to which adults are exposed in the course of their regular activities. Second, we evaluate whether particular groups are exposed to a broader or narrower range of social contexts in the course of their daily activities. We find that activity spaces are substantially more heterogeneous in terms of key social characteristics, compared to residential neighborhoods. However, the characteristics of both home neighborhoods and activity spaces are closely associated with individual characteristics. Our results suggest that most people experience substantial segregation across the range of spaces in their daily lives, not just at home.     

Beyond single mothers: Cohabitation and marriage in the AFDC program

We investigate the extent and implications of cohabitation and marriage among U.S. welfare recipients. An analysis of four data sets (the Current Population Survey, the National Survey of Families and Households, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth) shows significant numbers of cohabitors among recipients of AFDC. An even more surprising finding is the large number of married women on welfare. We also report the results of a telephone survey of state AFDC agencies conducted to determine state rules governing cohabitation and marriage. The survey results indicate that, in a number of respects, AFDC rules encourage cohabitation. Finally, we conduct an analysis of the impact of AFDC rules on cohabitation, marriage, and single motherhood and find weak evidence in support of incentives to cohabit.     

超大城市社会结构的演化：广州市职业结构变迁分析

论文以广州市职业结构变迁为例,以行业结构变化说明了宏观社会变革对个人职业结构变化的影响,以就业者年龄、教育水平变化说明个人素质上升对职业结构变化的作用。最后论文指出,外来人口在大城市的职业结构变化中起重要作用。     

超大城市土地优化配置中的人口问题初探——以广州市为例

文章首先指出超大城市日益严重的土地资源短缺迫切要求城市土地的优化配置,然后以广州为例,具体阐述了在超大城市的土地优化配置中要如何重视与人口分布、管理的协调.     

Beyond GDP: Classifying Alternative Measures for Progress

Both the potential pitfalls of macro-economic policies focused on stimulating economic growth and the problems involved in using GDP as a measure of well-being or economic welfare have long been recognized by economists and researchers from other social sciences. Therefore, it is no surprise that alternative measures for policy-making have been developed and promoted since the early 1970s. Over the past 5?years, the development of these measures has gained momentum both politically and academically. However, most research efforts concentrate on the development and promotion of individual indicators, while paying less attention to the wide range of indicators already available and to theoretical insights. As a result, few classification schemes of alternative measures exist today to help policy-makers in selecting a proper set of indicators. This paper first looks into the different classification schemes available in the literature and outlines the weaknesses in each of these. Afterwards, an alternative classification scheme is introduced that draws on the notions of well-being, economic welfare and sustainability. A further sub-categorization is built on the different approaches that are used to quantitatively capture the notions. By focusing on the underlying concepts that the different measures aim to quantify, the alternative classification scheme overcomes the drawbacks of the existing schemes. Finally, 23 alternative measures for policy-making are reviewed and organized into the newly developed classification scheme.     

Beyond Absenteeism: Father Incarceration and Child Development

High rates of incarceration among American men, coupled with high rates of fatherhood among men in prison, have motivated recent research on the effects of parental imprisonment on children’s development. We use data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study to examine the relationship between paternal incarceration and developmental outcomes for approximately 3,000 urban children. We estimate cross-sectional and longitudinal regression models that control not only for fathers’ basic demographic characteristics and a rich set of potential confounders, but also for several measures of pre-incarceration child development and family fixed effects. We find significant increases in aggressive behaviors and some evidence of increased attention problems among children whose fathers are incarcerated. The estimated effects of paternal incarceration are stronger than those of other forms of father absence, suggesting that children with incarcerated fathers may require specialized support from caretakers, teachers, and social service providers. The estimated effects are stronger for children who lived with their fathers prior to incarceration but are also significant for children of nonresident fathers, suggesting that incarceration places children at risk through family hardships including and beyond parent-child separation.     

论大都市外来劳动力变动与城镇就业的关系——以北京市为例

乡城人口流迁是城镇化的产物。中国正在处于快速城镇化的阶段,大量农村富余劳动力流入城市是当前我国城市化的重要特点和标志。而中国的乡城人口迁移是在城市本身就业压力巨大的情况下发生的。研究农村劳动力进入城市后对城市就业的影响,有着非常重要的意义。以北京市为案例,在分析北京市目前就业压力和来源、流动人口的变动与城市就业的关系及影响的基础上,给出一个关于乡城人口流动与城市就业之间动态关系的模型框架。     

Beyond household walls: the spatial structure of American extended kinship networks

ABSTRACT

How far do Americans live from their close and extended kin? The answer is likely to structure the types of social, instrumental, and financial support that they are able to provide to one another. Based on the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, kin pairs vary widely in odds of household co-residence, co-residence in the same administrative units, and inter-tract distances if they do not live in the same census tract. Multivariate regression tests show that family structure, educational attainment, and age are closely associated with kin proximity. Fixed-effects models demonstrate that family formation shapes spatial relations between kin.     

Spatial variation in contraceptive use in Bangladesh: Looking Beyond the borders

This article promotes a more complete understanding of social change by analyzing spatial patterns of contraceptive use in Bangladesh and the contiguous state of West Bengal in India. Multilevel analyses that control for variations in individual- and household-level correlates show an important role for cross-border influences only in those districts that share a common language across the border. The districts that are positive outliers in contraception hug the Bangladesh-West Bengal border. A map of outliers shows that the positive outliers form a contiguous band in a manner suggestive of a role for contagion.