Does It Matter What She Wants? The Role of Individual Preferences Against Unmarried Motherhood in Young Women’s Likelihood of a Nonmarital First Birth

Most young people in the United States express the desire to marry. Norms at all socioeconomic levels posit marriage as the optimal context for childbearing. At the same time, nonmarital fertility accounts for approximately 40 % of U.S. births, experienced disproportionately by women with educational attainment less than a bachelor’s degree. Research has shown that women’s intentions for the number and timing of children and couples’ intent to marry are strong predictors of realized fertility and marriage. The present study investigates whether U.S. young women’s preferences about nonmarital fertility, as stated before childbearing begins, predict their likelihood of having a nonmarital first birth. I track marriage and fertility histories through ages 24–30 of women asked at ages 11–16 whether they would consider unmarried childbearing. One-quarter of women who responded “no” in fact had a nonmarital birth by age 24–30. The ability of women and their partners to access material resources in adulthood were, as expected, the strongest predictors of the likelihood of nonmarital childbearing. Nonetheless, I find that women who said they would not consider nonmarital childbearing had substantially higher hazards of fertility postponement and especially of marital fertility, even after controlling for race/ethnicity, mother’s educational attainment, family of origin intactness, self-efficacy and planning ability, perceived future prospects, and markers of own educational attainment and work experience into early adulthood.     

Can LARC Fulfill Its Potential to Reduce U.S. Women’s Unintended Pregnancy Risk? Examining Women’s Contraception and Childbearing in the Year Before Initiating LARC

Long-acting reversible contraceptives (LARCs) have received increased attention in recent decades for their potential to reduce the high level of unintended pregnancy. We know little about women’s contraceptive use and (unintended) childbearing prior to LARC initiation, even though it provides vital context to considering the extent to which increased LARC use could be expected to reduce the U.S. unintended pregnancy rate. Data from 849 women who initiated LARC in the 2–3 years prior to the 2006–2015 cycles of the National Survey of Family Growth were analyzed to describe U.S. women’s contraceptive use and (unintended) childbearing in the year before initiating LARC. Results show that more than half of women (55.4%) who initiated LARC did so within a year of giving birth, with 47.3% of these births resulting from an unintended pregnancy. Among women without a recent birth, 5.0% had last relied on sterilization, 54.7% had last used a moderately-effective method, 34.7% had last used a less-effective method, and 5.6% had not used contraception in the year prior to initiating LARC. These findings advance understanding of the extent to which increased LARC use could be expected to reduce the unintended pregnancy rate. Women initiating LARC after a recent birth are selective of those at high risk of unintended pregnancy. In contrast, the majority of LARC initiators without a recent birth last relied on a moderately-effective method or sterilization—a pattern that could reduce LARC’s impact on the unintended pregnancy rate.

     

Examining the Antecedents of U.S. Nonmarital Fatherhood

Despite the dramatic rise in U.S. nonmarital childbearing in recent decades, limited attention has been paid to factors affecting nonmarital fatherhood (beyond studies of young fathers). In this article, we use data from the 2002 National Survey of Family Growth and the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 cohort to examine the antecedents of nonmarital fatherhood, as compared to marital fatherhood. Overall, we find the strongest support across both data sets for education and race/ethnicity as key predictors of having a nonmarital first birth, consistent with prior literature about women’s nonmarital childbearing and about men’s early/teenage fatherhood. Education is inversely related to the risk of nonmarital fatherhood, and minority (especially black) men are much more likely to have a child outside of marriage than white men. We find little evidence that employment predicts nonmarital fertility, although it does strongly (and positively) predict marital fertility. High predicted earnings are also associated with a greater likelihood of marital childbearing but with a lower likelihood of nonmarital childbearing. Given the socioeconomic disadvantage associated with nonmarital fatherhood, this research suggests that nonmarital fatherhood may be an important aspect of growing U.S. inequality and stratification both within and across generations.     

Just Like in Their Home Country? A Multinational Perspective on Living Arrangements of Older Immigrants in the United States

Older immigrants are more likely to share residence with their adult children and other family members than are U.S.-born older adults. Because socioeconomic factors only partially explain these differences and direct measures of cultural preferences are seldom available, the persistently high rates of intergenerational coresidence among the older foreign-born are often interpreted as driven by cultural preferences and/or a lack of assimilation. To challenge this interpretation, this study investigates the extent to which older immigrants’ living arrangements deviate from those of older adults in their home countries. The analysis combines data on immigrants from the 2008–2012 American Community Survey (ACS) with census data from three major immigrant-sending countries: Mexico, the Dominican Republic, and Vietnam. Despite persistent differences from U.S.-born whites, coresidence in later life is significantly less common than in the sending countries among the older foreign-born who migrated as young adults, and especially among those who migrated as children. The older foreign-born who migrated after age 50, however, are more likely to coreside and less likely to live independently than the older adults in their home countries. The similarity of these patterns across the three immigrant subgroups suggests that the unusually high coresidence among late-life immigrants is driven by U.S. family reunification policy and not simply by cultural influences.     

Are Generation X’ers Different than Late Boomers? Family and Earnings Trends among Recent Cohorts of Women at Young Adulthood

This article examines emerging trends in childbearing, marital status, and earnings for U.S. women over young adulthood across recent birth cohorts spanning the late baby boom and Generation X. We use a unique dataset that matches the 1990, 1996, and 2004 fertility and marital history modules of the Survey of Income and Program Participation with Social Security Administration longitudinal earnings records derived from survey respondents’ own tax records. While there have been some cohort-level changes, we find little empirical evidence of large-scale shifts in the family and earnings histories of young adult women born toward the end of Generation X, particularly college graduates, relative to their late baby-boom counterparts at the same stage of the life course. The broader implications of our findings and directions for further research are discussed.     

Understanding the demographic characteristics of urban men who have sex with men

We examined migration, closetedness, and family structure explanations of demographic profiles of urban men who have sex with men (MSM) using data from the Urban Men's Health Study and the Public Use Microdata Sample of the U.S. Census. The data suggested that the demographic profiles of urban MSM reflect a large in-migrating white, often young adult, population without children. Closetedness, an oft-cited bias in MSM population studies, did not significantly impact demographic patterns with minor exceptions. MSM urban subpopulations have demographics that differ substantially from the general population of the cities in which they reside.     

Early Childbearing,School Attainment,and Cognitive Skills: Evidence From Madagascar

Female secondary school attendance has recently increased in sub-Saharan Africa, and so has the risk of becoming pregnant while attending school. We analyze the impact of teenage pregnancy on young women’s human capital using longitudinal data in Madagascar that capture the transition from adolescence to adulthood for a cohort aged 21–24 in 2012, first interviewed in 2004. We find that early childbearing increases the likelihood of dropping out of school and decreases the chances of completing secondary school. This pregnancy-related school dropout also has a detrimental impact on standardized test scores in math and French. We instrument early pregnancy with the young woman’s community-level access and her exposure to condoms since age 15 after controlling for pre-fertility socioeconomic conditions. Our results are robust to different specifications that address potential endogeneity of program placement and instrument validity.     

The Effects of Childhood SNAP Use and Neighborhood Conditions on Adult Body Mass Index

The disproportionate number of individuals who are obese or overweight in the low-income U.S. population has raised interest in the influence of neighborhood conditions and public assistance programs on weight and health. Generally, neighborhood effects and program participation effects have been explored in separate studies. We unite these two areas of inquiry, using the 1968-2005 Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) to examine the long-term effects of childhood Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) participation, neighborhood conditions, and the interaction of these two, on adult body mass index (BMI). Using sibling fixed-effects models to account for selection bias, we find that relative to children in other low-income families, children in SNAP-recipient households have higher average adult BMI values. However, the effects of childhood SNAP usage are sensitive to both residential neighborhood and age at receipt. For those growing up in advantaged neighborhoods, projected adult BMI is higher for children in SNAP-recipient households than for children in low-income, nonrecipient households. In contrast, for those growing up in less-advantaged areas, adult BMI differences between children in SNAP-recipient and those in low-income, nonrecipient households are small. SNAP usage during preschool years (0 to 4) has no impact on adult BMI scores. However, at later childhood ages, the time elapsed receiving SNAP income increases adult BMI values relative to a condition of low-income nonreceipt.     

The Growth,Scope, and Spatial Distribution of People With Felony Records in the United States, 1948–2010

The steep rise in U.S. criminal punishment in recent decades has spurred scholarship on the collateral consequences of imprisonment for individuals, families, and communities. Several excellent studies have estimated the number of people who have been incarcerated and the collateral consequences they face, but far less is known about the size and scope of the total U.S. population with felony convictions beyond prison walls, including those who serve their sentences on probation or in jail. This article develops state-level estimates based on demographic life tables and extends previous national estimates of the number of people with felony convictions to 2010. We estimate that 3 % of the total U.S. adult population and 15 % of the African American adult male population has ever been to prison; people with felony convictions account for 8 % of all adults and 33 % of the African American adult male population. We discuss the far-reaching consequences of the spatial concentration and immense growth of these groups since 1980.     

Do perceptions of their partners’ childbearing desires affect young women’s pregnancy risk? Further study of ambivalence

We explore whether young women’s perceptions of their sexual partners’ childbearing desires contribute to their risk of pregnancy. We used weekly journal data collected from 787 young women to measure their childbearing desires and their perceptions of their partners’ childbearing desires. We then conducted hazard modelling to predict pregnancy risk with variables based on interactions between the women’s desires and their perceived partners’ desires. Models that include perceived partners’ desires perform better than one based on women’s desires alone. The best model contains three significant predictors: one confirms the importance of pronatal, ambivalent, and indifferent desires for pregnancy risk; one indicates that the perceived partners’ antinatal desires reduce women’s pregnancy risk; and one suggests that women who both perceive their partners accurately and are in agreement with them have a lower pregnancy risk. The results indicate that perceived partner data can improve prediction and enhance our understanding of pregnancy risk.     

Women’s Short-Term Employment Trajectories Following Birth: Patterns,Determinants, and Variations by Race/Ethnicity and Nativity

Despite a large literature documenting the impact of childbearing on women’s wages, less understanding exists of the actual employment trajectories that mothers take and the circumstances surrounding different paths. We use sequence analysis to chart the entire employment trajectory for a diverse sample of U.S. women by race/ethnicity and nativity in the first year following childbirth. Using data from the 1996–2008 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation and sample selection models, we find that women employed before childbirth show a high degree of labor market continuity. However, a notable share of them (24 %) took less stable paths by dropping out or scaling back work. In addition, mothers’ attachment to the labor force is simultaneously supported by personal endowments and family resources yet constrained by economic hardship and job characteristics. Moreover, mothers’ employment patterns differ by race/ethnicity and nativity. Nonwhite women (blacks, Hispanics, and Asians) who were employed before childbirth exhibited greater labor market continuation than white women. For immigrant women, those with a shorter length of residence were more likely to curtail employment than native-born women, but those with longer duration of residence show greater labor force attachment. We discuss the implications of these findings for income inequality and public policy.     

Labour-market status and first-time parenthood: the experience of immigrant women in Sweden, 1981-97

This paper investigates the impact of labour-market attachment on first births of foreign-born women in Sweden. The study uses a longitudinal, register-based dataset consisting of the entire population of immigrants from ten nations and a 5-per-cent random sample of natives. The effects of earned income are evident, with increased income levels increasing the probability of becoming a mother for all observed nationalities. The effects of various forms of participation and non-participation in the labour force do not vary greatly between immigrants and the Swedish-born. Among all subgroups, we find a higher propensity to begin childbearing among those who are established in the labour market. Contrary to popular belief, receiving welfare benefits clearly reduces first-birth intensity for immigrants but not for natives. The similarity in patterns across widely different national groups supports the notion that various institutional factors affecting all subgroups are crucial in influencing childbearing behaviour.     

Adolescent pregnancy and childbearing - growing concerns for Americans

The negative impact of the increase in sexual activity among teen-agers and the health and life chances of those involved are examined. The barriers to effective contraception by teen-agers, racial differences, and the U.S. experience in relation to that of other countries are discussed. Some of the major topics discussed are: 1) overall fertility rates among teen-agers, 2) legitimate and illegitimate births, 3) marriage among teen-agers, 4) adoption, 5) abortion as an outlet, 6) sexual activity, 7) patterns in conceptions, and 8) patterns of contraceptive practice. Also discussed are: 1) teen-agers and clinical services, 2) health consequences of adolescent childbearing, 3) teen-agers health and sex, 4) child development, 5) life chances for a t een-age mother, 6) consequences for society, and 7) international comparisons. 6 figures and 11 tables are included.     

The roles of child support enforcement and welfare in non-marital childbearing

This paper examines the effects of stronger child support enforcement and declines in welfare benefits on changes in non-marital childbearing between 1980 and 1996. Economic theory suggests that stricter child support enforcement will increase the costs of children for unwed fathers, making them less likely to have a child outside marriage. Reductions in welfare benefits also are expected to increase the costs of non-marital childbearing for both mothers and fathers. We examine these hypotheses, using aggregate state-level data and fixed effects regression models to identify the effects of policies on non-marital birth rates. We find that both stricter child support enforcement and declines in welfare benefits deter non-marital births. However, the estimated effects of child support enforcement are more robust and larger than those of welfare. The estimates imply that in the 1980–1996 period, increases in child support enforcement led to a decline in non-marital birth rates in the range of 6% to 9%, whereas decreases in welfare benefits led to a decline in the range of 2% to 4%. Received: 28 June 2000/Accepted: 17 September 2001     

Childbearing Across Partnerships in Australia,the United States,Norway, and Sweden

This article compares mothers’ experience of having children with more than one partner in two liberal welfare regimes (the United States and Australia) and two social democratic regimes (Sweden and Norway). We use survey-based union and birth histories in Australia and the United States and data from national population registers in Norway and Sweden to estimate the likelihood of experiencing childbearing across partnerships at any point in the childbearing career. We find that births with new partners constitute a substantial proportion of all births in each country we study. Despite quite different arrangements for social welfare, the determinants of childbearing across partnerships are very similar. Women who had their first birth at a very young age or who are less well-educated are most likely to have children with different partners. The educational gradient in childbearing across partnerships is also consistently negative across countries, particularly in contrast to educational gradients in childbearing with the same partner. The risk of childbearing across partnerships increased dramatically in all countries from the 1980s to the 2000s, and educational differences also increased, again, in both liberal and social democratic welfare regimes.     

Impact of Tuition-Free Education Policy on Child Marriage and Early Childbearing: Does Secondary Matter More?

Child marriage and early childbearing severely impact maternal and child health as well as long-term economic outcomes. Given their continued high incidence, analyzing the feasibility of effective national interventions remains crucial. While cross-sectional surveys and a few small-scale randomized experiments suggest delays in marriage and childbearing associated with secondary schooling, the impact of policies that advance secondary school at a national scale is largely unknown. Using a quasi-experimental research design, we examine whether making secondary school tuition-free delayed marriage and childbearing. We use a difference-in-differences strategy that exploits the natural variation in the timing of policy rollout in five sub-Saharan African countries. Using the Demographic and Health Surveys, we estimate the impact of the policy change by comparing changes in outcomes over the study period between girls who were exposed to the policy to those who were not. We find that tuition-free secondary reduced the probability of marriage and childbearing before 15 and 18 years of age. We observed significantly larger effects associated with tuition-free secondary over tuition-free primary for all outcomes. Our findings show it is important to support tuition-free secondary education as a policy instrument to delay marriage and childbirth, especially given current high rates and their long-term health and economic consequences.     

Housing and children: simultaneous decisions?—a cohort study of young adults’ housing and family formation decision

This study contributes to earlier research on homeownership and childbearing by taking into account the potential simultaneity between these two life events. A dataset comprising three different Swedish birth cohorts suggests that these are events that are indeed simultaneous. Different tests indicate that taking this simultaneity into account gives an overall statistically significant improvement of the model fit. However, this result is most obvious for those young adults who faced increasing problems on the housing market. The childbearing decision of these cohorts also seems to be more sensitive to changes in the user cost.     

Housing and children: simultaneous decisions?—a cohort study of young adults’ housing and family formation decision

This study contributes to earlier research on homeownership and childbearing by taking into account the potential simultaneity between these two life events. A dataset comprising three different Swedish birth cohorts suggests that these are events that are indeed simultaneous. Different tests indicate that taking this simultaneity into account gives an overall statistically significant improvement of the model fit. However, this result is most obvious for those young adults who faced increasing problems on the housing market. The childbearing decision of these cohorts also seems to be more sensitive to changes in the user cost.     

Alcohol consumption and risky sexual behavior among young adults: evidence from minimum legal drinking age laws

This paper exploits the discrete jump in alcohol consumption at the minimum legal drinking age (MLDA) in the USA and uses a regression discontinuity design to investigate the relationship between drinking and risky sexual behaviors among young adults. Using confidential data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (1997 Cohort), we document that young adults tend to drink up to 2.1 days more once they are granted legal access to alcohol at age 21. Although the discrete jump in alcohol consumption at the MLDA is associated with an increase in the probability of having sex by up to 7.8 percentage points, it does not have a significant impact on the probability of engaging in risky sexual behaviors among young adults. We also document that the effect of the MLDA on the probability of using several different birth control methods is not significant for those who had sex in the past 4 weeks. These results are robust under alternative specifications and imply that although the MLDA law is quite effective in reducing alcohol consumption among young adults, spillover effects of this law on risky sexual behaviors are relatively limited.     

The unemployment insurance compensation experience of immigrants in Canada, 1980-1988

This paper utilizes a new data set, compiled by Citizenship and Immigration Canada, Revenue Canada and Statistics Canada, to examine the unemployment experience of Canadian immigrant cohorts over the time period 1980 to 1988. Using the records of unemployment insurance benefits of persons who immigrated to Canada in those years and who filed income tax returns, the unemployment experiences of those people are compared by landing year, gender, level of education, language ability, and country of last permanent residence. The determinants of the proportion of each immigrant cohort that received unemployment insurance benefits are estimated by relating the proportions to landing year, duration of time in Canada, and labour market conditions. Briefly, we find no obvious influences on UI receipt behaviour following the immigration reforms of 1982. However, the recession of 1981–82 had a major impact on incomes which did not recover until 5 or 6 years later. Nevertheless, more generous UI benefits did raise slightly the likelihood of UI receipts. Received: 5 December 1995 / Accepted: 14 August 1996