Husbands’ versus wives’ fertility goals and use of contraception: The influence of gender context in five Asian countries

Using data from Pakistan, India, Malaysia, Thailand, and the Philippines, we explore how gender context influences (1) husband-wife concordance in the demand for children and (2) the impact of each spouse's fertility preferences on contraceptive use. We also explore whether the husband's pronatalism can explain the wife's unmet need for contraception. The results suggest that gender context has little net effect on couples' concordance, but influences the relative weight of husbands' and wives' preferences in determining contraceptive use. Analysis of women's unmet need for contraception suggests that the husbands' pronatalism contributes to wives' unmet need, but only to a relatively small degree, especially in settings where unmet need is high. This is the case because the proportion of couples with differing fertility goals is small in most communities.     

The changing relationship between unemployment and total fertility

The aim of this paper is to investigate whether there has been a fundamental change in the relationship between economic conditions and fertility. We use panel data methods to study the short-term changes in total fertility and the unemployment rate in a range of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries from 1957 to 2014. We find that although fertility was counter-cyclical before 1970, with good economic times being associated with lower fertility, since then it has become pro-cyclical, with good economic times being associated with higher fertility.     

Unintended effects of poverty programmes on childbearing in less developed countries: experimental evidence from Latin America

Because conditional cash transfer (CCT) programmes (which make payments to poor households, conditional on their behaviour) potentially affect both household resource levels and parental preferences for quality vs. quantity of children, they may have unintended consequences for fertility. We use panel data from experimental CCT programmes in three Latin American countries to assess the unintended impact of these programmes on childbearing. Our findings, based on difference-in-difference models, show that the programme in Honduras, which inadvertently created large incentives for childbearing, may have raised fertility by between 2 and 4 percentage points. The CCT programmes in the two other countries, Mexico and Nicaragua, did not have the same unintended incentives for childbearing, and in these countries we found no net impact on fertility. Subsequent analysis examined several potential mechanisms by which fertility in Honduras may have been raised but was not able to identify a primary mechanism with the available data.     

Unintended effects of poverty programmes on childbearing in less developed countries: Experimental evidence from Latin America

Because conditional cash transfer (CCT) programmes (which make payments to poor households, conditional on their behaviour) potentially affect both household resource levels and parental preferences for quality vs. quantity of children, they may have unintended consequences for fertility. We use panel data from experimental CCT programmes in three Latin American countries to assess the unintended impact of these programmes on childbearing. Our findings, based on difference-in-difference models, show that the programme in Honduras, which inadvertently created large incentives for childbearing, may have raised fertility by between 2 and 4 percentage points. The CCT programmes in the two other countries, Mexico and Nicaragua, did not have the same unintended incentives for childbearing, and in these countries we found no net impact on fertility. Subsequent analysis examined several potential mechanisms by which fertility in Honduras may have been raised but was not able to identify a primary mechanism with the available data.     

Family structure and well-being at older ages in Japan

The family structure of older Japanese is projected to change dramatically as a result of very low fertility, increasing levels of non-marriage, childlessness, and divorce, and declining intergenerational co-residence. To provide an empirical basis for speculation about the implications of projected increases in single-person and couple-only households, we use two sources of data to describe relationships between family structure and the physical and emotional well-being of Japanese men and women aged 60 and above. We find that marriage is positively associated with self-rated health and emotional well-being among older men but not women. In contrast to expectations, however, we find only limited evidence that the presence of children contributes to well-being. Taken as a whole, our results suggest that declines in marriage may have negative implications for the well-being of older Japanese men while the implications of declines in fertility and intergenerational co-residence may be less than popularly believed.     

Industrialization,family and fertility: A structural-psychological analysis of the Brazilian case

This paper addresses itself to some linkages between macro-social structure (industrialization, social class), social psychological variables (husband-wife decision making), psychological variables (attitudes), and fertility. A total of 726 currently mated women with proven fertility in five Brazilian communities were interviewed to determine various attitudes, their work experience, their participation in family decisions, their fertility ideals, and actual fertility. The five communities were selected along a rural-urban-industrialization continuum to include a village, two non-industrial cities, and two industrial cities (one of which was Sao Paulo). Family size in the industrial cities was small in all social strata, while in the non-industrial cities family size was large in the lower strata and declined in the upper strata. Further analysis revealed that smaller family size is associated with generally higher levels of status among women—higher educational levels, greater social contacts and more skilled employment, and equality in family decision making. Our analysis supports the hypotheses that industrialization influences fertility through shifts in the social status of women, both in their work and at home. New education and work opportunities facilitate the emergence of modern conceptions of the role of women in society and egalitarian decision making in the family. These attitudes and patterns of husband-wife interaction are related to smaller family size ideals and lower fertility.     

A model of the determinants in married women of sterilization method choice

A model for predicting sterilization method selection is constructed on the basis of hypotheses about 1. the relationship between the fertility termination, sterilization, and method selection decisions and 2. the influence of substantive, processual, and contextual factors in those decisions. The model is found to have an acceptably good fit to data from almost five hundred women in married couples selecting either tubal ligation or vasectomy. A number of interesting dynamic pathways leading to method selection are observed. Some weaknesses in the model are discussed. It is desirable that further confirmation and elaboration of the model using longitudinal and husband-wife data be undertaken.This paper is based on a study funded by the National Institutes of Child Health and Human Development, Center for Population Research, Grant Number 13459.     

Did Australia’s Baby Bonus Increase Fertility Intentions and Births?

In May 2004, the Australian government announced a “Baby Bonus” policy, paying women an initial A$3,000 per new child. We use household panel data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey (N = 14,932) and a simultaneous equations approach to analyze the effects of this bonus on fertility intentions and ultimately births. The results indicate that opportunity costs influence intentions and births in predictable ways. Fertility intentions rose after the announcement of the Baby Bonus, and the birth rate is estimated to have risen modestly as a result. The marginal cost to the government for an additional birth is estimated to be at least A$3,000 per new child. We use household panel data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey (N = 14,932) and a simultaneous equations approach to analyze the effects of this bonus on fertility intentions and ultimately births. The results indicate that opportunity costs influence intentions and births in predictable ways. Fertility intentions rose after the announcement of the Baby Bonus, and the birth rate is estimated to have risen modestly as a result. The marginal cost to the government for an additional birth is estimated to be at least A126,000.     

The influence of wives’ and husbands’ fertility preferences on progression to a third birth in Nepal, 1997–2009

As couples across the globe increasingly exercise conscious control over their reproduction, both spouses’ family-size preferences have the opportunity to influence their fertility. Using couple-level measures of rural Nepalese spouses’ family-size preferences and more than a decade of monthly panel data collected subsequently on fertility outcomes, we investigate how both spouses’ preferences influence progression to a third birth in a country where the widely professed ideal family size is two children. Contrary to expectations based on women's relative disadvantage, we find that it is wives’ preferences that drive couples’ progression to a third birth. We find also that the influence of wives’ preferences is not explained by contraceptive use but that this influence is moderated by couple communication about family planning. Wives’ preferences drive progression to a third birth among couples who had discussed how many children to have.     

Toward a general theory of fertility: A causal modeling approach

A general theory of fertility is derived hypothesizing that the demand for children is primarily an outcome of social psychological processes within the family, subject to certain socioeconomic constraints. Two broad social psychological processes are posited as determinants of fertility. The first suggests that the attitudes or tastes of family members influence the demand for children. The second maintains that the nature of the husband-wife interaction (in terms of power, conflict, decision making, and marital satisfaction) determines family size. Socioeconomic variables, in the form of the normative social structure and social stratification, and economic constraints, such as income and price, are hypothesized to influence fertility through their impact on social psychological processes within the family. The overall theory is tested on two independent samples—one in Ankara, Turkey, the second in Mexico City, Mexico—using a structural equation methodology.     

Do Cross-National Differences in the Costs of Children Generate Cross-National Differences in Fertility Rates?

Parity-specific probabilities of having a next birth are estimated from national fertility data and are compared with nation-specific costs of having children as measured by time-budget data, by attitude data from the International Social Survey Program, and by panel data on labor earnings and standard of living changes following a birth. We focus on five countries (the United States, the former West Germany, Denmark, Italy, and the United Kingdom), whose fertility rates span the observed fertility range in the contemporary industrialized world and whose social welfare and family policies span the conceptual space of standard welfare-state typologies. Definitive conclusions are difficult because of the multiple dimensions on which child costs can be measured, the possibility that child costs affect both the quantum and the tempo of fertility, the relatively small fertility differences across industrialized nations, and the inherent small-N problem resulting from nation-level comparisons. Empirical analysis, however, supports the assertion that institutionally driven child costs affect the fertility patterns of industrialized nations.     

中国人口迁移与生育率关系研究

本文利用2000年人口普查数据,考察了中国人口迁移与生育率的关系。通过比较农村本地人口、城市本地人口和流动迁移人口三个人口群体在生育率上的差异,并进行多元统计分析,结果表明,流动迁移对生育率有着非常显著影响,城市外来人口的生育率不仅显著低于农村本地人口,而且也低于城市本地人口;远期流迁人口的生育率要低于近期流迁人口的生育率。中国人口迁移与生育率的关系出现了与已有的迁移生育率理论的不一致。1990年代中国的迁移生育率发生了转变。     

Determined to stop? Longitudinal analysis of the desire to have no more children in rural Mozambique

Classic demographic theories conceptualize desired family size as a fixed goal that guides fertility intentions over the childbearing years. However, a growing body of research shows that fertility plans, even nominally long-term plans for completed childbearing, change in response to short-term conditions. Because of data limitations, much of this research has focused on low-fertility contexts, but short-term conditions are likely to be even more important in high-fertility contexts. This paper uses three waves of survey data collected in rural Mozambique to study predictors of the desire to stop childbearing in a context of relatively high fertility and high individual and social instability. We use fixed effects models to assess how women’s desires to stop childbearing are shaped by demographic factors, household economic conditions, and health status, controlling for constant individual characteristics. Results provide evidence that fertility desires both reflect stable underlying goals and evolve in response to individual and social circumstances.     

Fertility after natural disaster: Hurricane Mitch in Nicaragua

This investigation evaluates the effect of Hurricane Mitch on women’s reproductive outcomes throughout Nicaragua. This research aim is achieved by analyzing a unique Nicaraguan Living Standards Measurement Study panel dataset that tracks women’s fertility immediately before and at two time points after Hurricane Mitch, combined with satellite-derived municipality-level precipitation data for the 10-day storm period. Results show higher odds of post-disaster fertility in municipalities receiving higher precipitation levels in the immediate post-Hurricane Mitch period. However, fertility normalizes between disaster and non-disaster areas 4 to 6 years after the storm. These findings suggest that the disruptive effects of a natural disaster such as Hurricane Mitch can have an initial stimulative effect on fertility but that effect is ephemeral.     

Some aspects of the use of birth expectations data from sample surveys for population projections

The value of national sample survey data relating to birth expectations for projecting births is reassessed in the light of data limitations pointed out by Ryder and Westoff among others and of the methods of projection used by the United States Bureau of the Census. The annual level of fertility under the cohort-fertility projection method depends on the assumptions regarding completed fertility, about which the available survey data are fairly informative, and on the assumptions regarding the timing of births, about which the survey data tell us very little. Test calculations suggest that Ryder and Westoff have overstated the significance of timing relative to completed family size for the level of future births. We believe that the fall in the annual total fertility rate in the first half of the sixties is to be explained only in part by a general delay in childbearing; a moderate to substantial decrease in completed family size has also occurred. Analysis of the latest set of fertility projections of the Census Bureau also suggests that the assumptions about completed fertility are a much more important determinant of the level of future births than timing, both in the short and long term. Although the available expectations data cannot help in predicting short-term annual changes in fertility, they appear useful for making long-term projections of annual fertility. Expansion of the size, frequency, and content of the sample surveys and incorporation of parity and birth interval into the projection method may improve projections.     

A global perspective on happiness and fertility

The literature on fertility and happiness has neglected comparative analysis. We investigate the fertility/happiness association using data from the world values surveys for 86 countries. We find that, globally, happiness decreases with the number of children. This association, however, is strongly modified by individual and contextual factors. Most importantly, we find that the association between happiness and fertility evolves from negative to neutral to positive above age 40, and is strongest among those who are likely to benefit most from upward intergenerational transfers. In addition, analyses by welfare regime show that the negative fertility/ happiness association for younger adults is weakest in countries with high public support for families, and the positive association above age 40 is strongest in countries where old-age support depends mostly on the family. Overall these results suggest that children are a long-term investment in well-being, and highlight the importance of the life-cycle stage and contextual factors in explaining the happiness/fertility association.     

The Easterlin hypothesis in the recent experience of higher-income OECD countries: A panel-data approach

The Easterlin hypothesis emphasizes the effect of relative cohort size on fertility. Models based on the Easterlin hypothesis have performed well in explaining time series fertility data, although these results have been for long historical time series and have typically been restricted to single country studies. These models are not adequate to determine if the hypothesis still holds and if the success of the Easterlin hypothesis is an artifact of the time period chosen. We use panel data analysis and temporal causality tests to see of the Easterlin hypothesis holds for higher-income OECD countries. The results support the Easterlin hypothesis.All correspondence to Yongil Jeon. An earlier version, The Easterlin hypothesis in OECD countries, was presented at the annual conference of the European society for population economics, Bilbao, Spain, June 2002. We are grateful to two anonymous referees for their helpful comments. The usual caveat applies. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Marital Processes, Arranged Marriage, and Contraception to Limit Fertility

An international transition away from familially arranged marriages toward participation in spouse choice has endured for decades and continues to spread through rural Asia today. Although we know that this transformation has important consequences for childbearing early in marriage, we know much less about longer-term consequences of this marital revolution. Drawing on theories of family and fertility change and a rural Asian panel study designed to measure changes in both marital and childbearing behaviors, this study seeks to investigate these long-term consequences. Controlling for social changes that shape both marital practices and childbearing behaviors, and explicitly considering multiple dimensions of marital processes, we find evidence consistent with an independent, long-standing association of participation in spouse choice with higher rates of contraception to terminate childbearing. These results add a new dimension to the evidence linking revolutions in marital behavior to long-term declines in fertility and suggest that new research should consider a broader range of long-term consequences of changing marital processes.     

The impact of war, famine, and economic decline on marital fertility in ethiopia

We examine recent fertility trends in Ethiopia for evidence of short- and long-term responses to famine, political events, and economic decline. We use retrospective data on children ever born from the 1990 National Family and Fertility Survey to estimate trends in annual marital conception probabilities, controlling for women's demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. The results of our analysis provide evidence of significant short-term declines in conception probabilities during years of famine and major political and economic upheaval. In the longer term, marital fertility in both urban and rural areas declined in the 1980s after increasing moderately in the 1970s.     

New insights into the fertility patterns of recent Polish migrants in the United Kingdom

There have been important changes in the United Kingdom’s fertility and immigration in the past decade, with a large share contributed by migrants from Poland. A detailed understanding of Polish migrant fertility is lacking, however, because the relevant data are not routinely collected. This paper provides new insights into the fertility patterns of Polish migrants in the UK, and compares these patterns with those of other large immigrant groups, the UK-born population and in Poland. We use the UK Labour Force Survey with the Own Children Method, illustrating the potential of survey data for estimating immigrant fertility in settings where other data are unavailable. We first compare the fertility patterns of recent Polish migrants with those of other key recent immigrant groups and the UK-born population; estimating Age-Specific Fertility Rates (ASFRs), and Total Fertility Rates (TFRs), by country of birth for the 2004–2012 period; the proportions in each immigrant group that arrive without children; and of those childless at arrival the proportions of women who go on to have births within a short period after arrival. Next, we compare the ASFRs and TFR for Polish migrant women with those observed in Poland. Our results show that the fertility of Polish migrants is among the lowest for all population subgroups in the UK, and that Polish migrants are less likely to have children soon after arrival than other immigrant groups. The findings are consistent with migration not being so closely linked to family formation for Polish migrants as it is for immigrants in the comparison groups. We also find that the fertility patterns of Polish migrants are different from those observed in Poland with a later childbearing profile and a slightly higher TFR.