The Argument from Overpopulation—Logical and Ethical Considerations

A traditional subject for discussion in population debates is whether the world or any subdivisions of it are overpopulated. Some proclaim that we are indeed in a state of overpopulation, while others persistently deny this claim. However, statements which proclaim or deny overpopulation are almost never accompanied by satisfactory definitions as to what overpopulation means. This is most unsatisfactory, especially because whether or not overpopulation is a fact is often claimed to be crucial when it comes to the justification of population political recommendations. This article considers an argument from overpopulation, according to which overpopulation justifies policies which reduce population size; and an argument against overpopulation, according to which the fact that present problems can be handled without population reductions establishes that there is no state of overpopulation. Both arguments are rejected by clarifying possible definitions of overpopulation.     

Views and concepts relating to population problems in the Netherlands 1918–1939

The problem of the possibility of overpopulation in the Netherlands has never been a subject of debate. The tempo of decline of fertility in this densely populated country was, however, much slower than elsewhere. Discussion started only after 1919, when economic problems relating to a rapidly expanding population were studied. The object of this article is to trace the development of such discussion in the Netherlands between the two world wars. The article is intended to make a contribution to explaining the exceptional situation of the Netherlands during the last hundred years in respect of population.     

人口老龄化的认知和应对：积极的与消极的

正确认知和积极应对老龄化是老龄事业健康发展的前提。在＂消极论＂看来,＂老龄化即是衰亡＂,须提高出生率和＂社会化养老＂以应对。积极的认知是：老龄化负荷着积极的价值而非＂衰亡＂,人口数量过多是＂心膂之忧＂,控制人口对合理年龄结构具优先性;提高出生率无异于＂饮鸩止渴＂,＂社会化养老＂则是一个模糊而不宜使用的概念。积极的应对之策是,发展＂家庭养老＂和＂社区服务＂,在政府负责、主导下,建立＂三结合＂的赡养体系和服务体系,＂给岁月以生命＂并坚持＂节制生育＂。     

Sociological aspects of inter-island migration in Indonesia

“Transmigration” to the Outer Islands of Indonesia is generally considered a solution for the overpopulation problem of Java. An analysis of the actual situation exposes some of the fallacies behind this assumption.

Organised resettlement in irrigated areas tends to reproduce the overpopulation pattern prevalent in Java. “Spontaneous” migration, without governmental planning and supervision, is still less satisfactory as it exposes the cleared soils to erosion, after a few harvests.

The analysis shows that the concept of overpopulation should be made more precise. In relation to the modes of cultivation practised among most of the peoples outside Java, many regions in the Outer Islands may be regarded as overpopulated, in spite of their low population densities.

The absorptive capacity of the Outer Islands should not be measured in spatial terms only, but sociological and psychological factors must be taken into account. Assimilation of the Javanese migrants with Sumatrans would seem unlikely, given the present system of rural resettlement.

A solution of the overpopulation problem of Java and of the resettlement problem would call for efficient planning to bring about basic changes in the economic structure of the whole archipelago, including a programme for industrial development.

The weaknesses of the newly founded Asian states are in part due to the fact that national loyalties have not yet taken root among the mass of the population.     

人口适度集中是改善西部生态环境的一条出路

西部生态环境日益恶化的原因,在于生态系统脆弱,人口超载对生态环境的扰动过大。在加强生态建设的同时,调整人口分布,促进人口适度集中,实现集镇化,不失为一条有效的途径。     

Natural control of populations of the southern green stink bug,Nezara viridula

Summary Based on the results of five-year study on theNezara population, it was concluded that the level of abundance of the insect was determined partly by the combination and relative adundance of the host plants and partly by the climatic factors. The endless increase of the population was checked by the deleterious effects associated with the overpopulation which occurred locally. The degree of such overpopulation was determined by the relative abundance of host plants to the current level of the population. Therefore, even when the general level ofNezara population seemed to be low, there still exists the possibility of overpopulation in some areas. Winter was the critical period which threatened the persistence ofNezara population. The survival of the hibernating adults was partly dependent on the physiological state of adults which was determined in the period of pre-hibernation. But when the severity of a winter exceeded the tolerance limit of the insect, the only safety-valve which prevented the elimination ofNezara was the heterogeneity of hibernacula. Therefore,Milne's theory (1957) was closest to the known facts.     

The objectives of government policies on fertility control in Eastern Europe

Although demographers from the communist countries continue to maintain that overpopulation in the Malthusian sense Is possible only under capitalism, some East European demographers now concede that a form of overpopulation may, at times and under certain conditions, exist In a communist society. In this connection the ideological framework for an optimum population policy under communism has been developed, and demographers have been given the task of determining what the optimum population is and how it is to be attained. There has been considerable ferment on the Issue of fertility control in both the literature and action programmes of Poland, Chechoslovakia, and Hungary. The latter two countries have conducted surveys on family planning, including the use and effectiveness of contraceptives, and have established demographic journals.

All the communist countries of Eastern Europe except Albania and East Germany have relaxed laws restricting abortions and conducted campaigns for the spread of contraceptives. At the same time family allowances have been continued. These paradoxically divergent policies can be rationalized as attempts to sustain existing families while providing the basis for regulating future fertility to achieve an optimum population in relation to the resources of the respective countries.     

Some problems concerning the population thought in the Ming and Quing dynasties]

After the middle of the Ming dynasty, the Chinese feudal system began to show some influence of capitalism in its production models. Changes began to take place in its political and economic systems. In 1723, a new method of household taxation was adopted to replace the traditional taxation system, which had been based upon the population of each household. Under the new system, taxation was based upon the size of the land each household owned. As a result of this change, the population showed rapid growth. Intellectuals began to form the concept of curbing excessive population growth. They also began to pay attention to the problems of adequate material supplies, overpopulation, and possible solutions. Chinese intellectuals and scholars of the late Ming and Qing dynasties, including Xu Guangqi, Hong Liangji, Wang Shifeng, and Xue Fucheng realized the serious nature of population growth. In fact, the population figure doubledever 30 years on a regular basis. The rapid population growth caused a decline in the living standard, higher prices for consumer goods, unemployment, a decline in the population quality, and social disorders. Hong Liangji suggested that natural disasters such as floods and droughts could help reduce the population, and that improvement in agriculture, emigration, and tax reductions could promote production. Wang Shifeng was in favor of using severe laws and restrictions on marriage to control population. Xue Fucheng proposed the idea of imitating Western countries to develop capitalism and industries and increase employment opportunities to reduce the pressure of the rapid population growth.     

21世纪初的计划生育工作探讨

本人通过对中国巨大的人口压力、计生工作的艰巨性和基层计生工作的薄弱环节等因素分析 ,认为21世纪初中国计生工作的主要任务是控制人口增长 ,稳定低生育率 ,并建议增加计生事业投入 ,加强基层计生干部队伍和服务阵地建设     

Attitudes toward adoption and child-bearing by American and Brazilian students

A 2 × 2 × 2 factorial design with country of origin (U.S. or Brazil), education (high school or college), and sex (male or female) as independent variables was used to investigate cross-national differences concerning: the number of natural children wanted and expected, the number of adopted children wanted and expected, and concern about overpopulation. Subjects were 67 American and 74 Brazilian high school students, and 64 American and 78 Brazilian college students. Several interesting findings emerged. For one thing, Americans reported thinking more about adopting children and expected to have more adopted children than did Brazilians. Also, concern about overpopulation was more predictive of the number of children wanted and expected in the U.S. than in Brazil. The implications of these and other findings for population planners was discussed.     

The population debate: A survey of opinions of a professional organization's membership

In analyzing results of a survey concerning population issues taken among members of an organization devoted to the scientific study of population, namely, the Population Association of America, we found high agreement that: (1) world population growth was much too high, (2) many of today's serious problems are caused by overpopulation, and (3) the U.S. should help any requesting country establish programs to curtail growth. There was no consensus, however, on issues such as: (1) ideal population size, (2) family planning as the most reasonable means of reducing population growth, (3) the need to initiate coercive birth control immediately, (4) redistribution of resources as a long-term solution to overpopulation, (5) how to solve population problems in time to avoid widespread catastrophe, and (6) whether the U.S. should exert pressure on other countries to establish a family planning program as a prerequisite to economic aid. These findings apply with few exceptions to four subcategories of members defined on the basis of extent of demographic training and employment.     

Optimal population and increasing returns to scale

The paper deals with the common allegation that economies characterized by increasing returns of scale are suboptimally populated. Although increasing returns is a necessary condition for suboptimal population, it is demonstrated that it is not sufficient. Furthermore, a more stringent necessary condition is available, i.e., the degree of returns to scale must exceed one plus the capital share for the economy. This necessary condition may also be employed as a test of sufficiency for overpopulation. In the light of this criterion, it is suggested that the incidence of suboptimal population has been overestimated.     

Population policy in Mainland China

Population policy in Communist China has little demographic significance. It is of interest mainly for what it reveals about the nature of the administrative and decision making process in Peking. Although the evidence is often ambiguous, six fairly distinct phases of population policy can be distinguished, during which policy shifted from categoric denial of population problems to an endorsement of birth control and back to the denial of population problems. There are indications that the birth control campaign was first activated in response to fears of overpopulation, that it was abandoned during the “ leap forward ” in 1958 because the Chinese Communist leaders actually believed their economic expedients had achieved miraculous success, and that the recent absence of explicit policy reflects both a disillusionment with the “ leap forward ” and reluctance to resume openly the birth control campaign. Apparently, Peking is at present waiting hopefully for good news from the agricultural front before undertaking another major policy revision; if this hope is disappointed, the consequences may have great international significance.     

Overpopulation, Sustainable Development, and Security: Developing an Integrated Strategy

This paper proposes a symposium on overpopulation, sustainable development, and security. These issues are usually treated separately by politicians and the public, but addressing them intelligently requires seeing the interconnections. Many scientists warn that growing human numbers and consumption are undermining the carrying capacity of the Earth. Unfortunately, their advice has not been heeded as it is perceived as being contrary to some prevailing economic and social interests. This symposium would draw together some of the leading minds on the population/resource issue for the purpose of initiating a process to bridge the gap between scientific concerns and public policy.     

Causal Relationships among Population and Carbon Dioxide Emissions

The carbon dioxide emissions of the provinces would be calculated from 1995 to 2008.And we compare the provinces’ carbon dioxide emissions and population development.We found that the relationship between population and carbon dioxide emissions are not a simple correlation.In order to probe the relation,we introduce the economic variable into the research,take advantage the cointegration analysis and Granger causality test.The paper found that the population and economic growth is the main reason of carbon dioxide emission change.In short run the population growth would impact the carbon dioxide emissions,and increase in carbon dioxide emissions cannot be simply attributed to overpopulation,economic growth impact on carbon dioxide emissions more strongly.     

Fertility decline in Punjab, India: parallels with historical Europe

Two interesting features emerge from this study of fertility behaviour in Punjab. First, it brings out the common features of peasant life and demographic behaviour found in this developing-country setting and in historical Europe. As in much of Europe, marriage was regulated to adjust to the availability of land and other resources. It is interesting to note that the operation of this 'nuptiality valve' was quite consistent with a system of joint families and partible inheritance. Secondly, the findings suggest that we need to re-define what we understand to be the features of socio-economic development which are crucial for fertility decline. Fertility began to decline steadily in this part of Punjab as early as 1940, at a time when the society was overwhelmingly agrarian, illiterate, and infant mortality was high with no access to modern contraceptive technology, as in historical Europe. The onset of the decline was brought about by development interventions which stabilized fluctuations in crop yields and mortality, thus radically improving stability of people's expectations. This study also points out the inapplicability of Mamdani's theories of fertility behaviour to the people he studies.     

U. S. population growth as an abstractly-perceived problem

Recent public opinion polls report that a majority of Americans consider the nation’s population growth rate to be a “serious” problem. Little systematic evidence exists on whether they view the problem as a factor that the individual married couple should consider in deciding on family size. A survey of 134 adult women living in a limited-income family housing project in a relatively small and isolated American community suggests: the view that continued population growth is a problem in the United States is endorsed more strongly than the view that the couple has a responsibility to limit its fertility because of overpopulation; and concern with population growth is only loosely associated with acceptance of the individual responsibility attitude. Among subgroups of respondents, Catholics were more likely to hold a negative attitude toward population growth than to possess the individual responsibility view and they exhibited a correlation between the two attitudes. Protestants were distinguished by no difference in or correlation between the acceptance of the two attitudes. A correlation between the attitudes was especially pronounced among Catholics with high achievement values. It is suggested that measures explicitly intended to control population growth probably cannot be adopted until there is a strong correlation between the two attitudes.     

Giving the population component its proper position]

In the discussion of the population component and its relationship to social development, we have to note the close relationship between material reproduction and the reproduction of human beings themselves. The unity of these reproductions is a necessary condition for social existence and development. In the past, whenever there was a problem of overpopulation, the tragedy of wiping out large numbers of the population also took place. This kind of tragedy eventually solved the problem of overpopulation and brought back a normal condition for economic development. A cycle like this happened continuously in the past. Under a socialist system today, the situation has been very different. The method includes a conscious adjustment and planned birth control in order to curb the speed of the population growth. Generally speaking, production patterns determine the development of the population growth. Under a certain production pattern, the development of the population reproduction is also dominated by the consumption pattern. A change in the consumption pattern will definitely have a great impact on the birthrate. A comprehensive plan is needed for population growth, and population control should match economic development. In a longterm plan, the population growth plan should be based upon a strategy for economic development and the changes which took place in the process of population reproduction. In short-term plan, practical measures aare needed to control the population growth in order to achieve harmony between the population and the economy.     

Law, marriage and illegitimacy in nineteenth-century Germany

Abstract Concern arose among legislators in several German States during the first half of the nineteenth century about overpopulation and increasing numbers of the impoverished classes. This led them to pass legislation restricting marriage to those considered by the community authorities as morally and financially capable of rearing a family. Census data at the time of the repeal of these laws indicate the extent to which they succeeded in repressing marriage. Declining illegitimacy which paralleled the repeal, however, suggests strongly that the legislation was far less effectual in limiting reproduction than it was in preventing marriage. Added confirmation of this interpretation is provided by the contrasting nuptiality and illegitimacy patterns of German states with liberal marriage regulations.     

No Room at the Inn,or Why Population Problems Are Not All Economic

Among the conditions necessary for human well-being is an environment where human populations remain within the biological and cultural carrying capacity of their respective geographies. Overpopulation, although difficult to define precisely, produces serious environmental problems. It might be the case that no one ever died from overpopulation, but certainly many have experienced a diminished quality of life. This paper will argue first, and briefly, numbers do count; second, there are good familiar arguments for restricting the cherished rights to reproduce (and by parity of reasoning property ownership) when these rights conflict with subsistence rights; third, some type of government intervention is necessary and desirable if we are to efficiently curtail population growth. This is especially important if we view subsistence rights as positive rights that need official recognition and guidance.