Decision analysis for practical negotiation application

The family of decision analysis techniques can be applied effectively to support practical negotiators in international settings. These techniques are most appropriate in support of the prenegotiation phase, when parties are diagnosing the situation, assessing their own plans and strategies, and evaluating likely reactions and outcomes. The paper identifies how these approaches have and can be used to assist negotiation practitioners, offers a rationale for the application of decision analytic approaches in terms of the particular analytical requirements of the prenegotiation period, suggests how these process-oriented tools can be integrated with substantive tools, and discusses ways in which these tools can be presented and delivered to practitioners in a practical and confidence-building manner.     

Decision support and negotiation research: A researcher's perspective

The intellectual interchange between methodologists interested in supporting negotiation practice and negotiation researchers who have been developing conceptual frameworks of the process and outcome must be enlivened. Taking the perspective of a researcher concerned with understanding and explaining the process of negotiation, the author highlights several key theoretical concepts that DSS developers should consider in designing techniques for practitioners which will introduce dynamic and creative aspects and provide a firm theoretical underpinning for their DSS approaches.     

The role of multi-objective optimization in negotiation and mediation support

The paper reviews the methodology of multi-objective modeling and optimization used in decision support based on computerized analytical models (as opposed to logical models used in expert systems) that represent expert knowledge in a given field. The essential aspects of this methodology relate to its flexibility: modeling and optimization methods are treated not as goals in themselves but as tools that help a sovereign user (an analyst or a decision maker) to interact with the model, to generate and analyze various decision options, to learn about possible outcomes of these decisions. Although the applications of such methods in negotiation and mediation support is scarce yet, their flexibility increases essentially the chances of such applications. Various aspects of negotiation and mediation methods related to multi-objective optimization and game theory are also reviewed. A possible application of the MCBARG system for supporting negotiation related to the acid rain problem is briefly summarized.     

Group decision and negotiation support in evolving,nonshared information contexts

Based on evolutionary systems design (ESD), group decision and negotiation support in evolving, nonshared information contexts is discussed. A non-shared information context — one without full information sharing — is associated with what has been loosely called a noncooperative context in the group decision and negotiation support systems (GDNSS) literature. Without full information sharing, we have a game with incomplete information that, in general, is evolving. The paper discusses how the GDNSS, MEDIATOR, supports evolution of the group problem representation — a process of consensus seeking (through information sharing, here partial) subject to problem adaptation and restructuring within which compromise is possible.     

Statistical vs. identified lives in benefit-cost analysis

Evaluation of projects that affect mortality risk usually assumes that risk changes are small and similar across individuals. In reality, risks differ among individuals and information about risk heterogeneity determines the extent to which affected lives are “statistical” or “identified” and influences the outcome of benefit-cost analysis (BCA). The effects of information about risk heterogeneity on BCA depend on, inter alia, whether information concerns heterogeneity of baseline or change in risk and whether valuation uses compensating or equivalent variation. BCA does not systematically favor identified over statistical lives. We suggest some political factors that may explain the apparent public bias.

统计模型的“不确定性”问题:与倾向值方法

量化社会学研究往往基于特定的统计模型展开。近十几年来日益流行的倾向值方法也不例外,其在实施过程中需要同时拟合估计倾向值得分的“倾向值模型”与估计因果关系的“结果模型”。然而,无论是其模型形式还是系数估计,统计模型本身都具有不可忽视的“不确定性”问题。本研究在倾向值分析方法的框架下,系统梳理和阐释了模型形式不确定性与模型系数不确定性的内涵及其处理方法。通过分析“蒙特卡洛模拟”数据与经验调查数据,本文展示了在使用倾向值方法进行因果估计的过程中,研究者如何通过“贝叶斯平均法”进行多个备选倾向值模型的选择,以及如何通过联合估计解决倾向值模型与估计模型中的系数不确定性问题。本文的研究也表明,在考虑倾向值估计过程的不确定性之后,结果模型中对于因果关系的估计呈现更小的置信区间和更高的统计效率。     

Cognitive mapping as a technique for supporting international negotiation

This article explores the use of cognitive mapping as a tool for supporting international negotiation. Cognitive mapping was developed from the research tradition in cognitive psychology that was pioneered by Heider, congruity theory and attribution theory. Applied to political analysis, the technique can be used to represent causal and quasi-causal thinking about a specific policy area. Cognitive maps can be hand-drawn, or, in the case of maps consisting of more than 25 concepts, machine-generated for detailed and systematic analysis. Regardless of the format, cognitive maps can be examined to determine the most central concepts, the explanation of a problem in terms of its root causes and potential consequences, the use of evidence, such as historical analogies, internal consistency, and perceived consequences of policy proposals. Although the technique was designed to represent the views of individuals, cognitive maps can be aggregated to study collective decision-making. Applied to international negotiation, the technique can be employed as a substance-focused tool to represent and integrate knowledge about a specific policy area for use by negotiators. As a process-oriented tool, the technique can be used to help negotiators understand better their own assumptions about a problem, the viewpoints of other parties to the negotiations, and the ways others see their own position. In this mode, the technique has promise for promoting convergence of views and negotiated agreements.     

A decision support system for the graph model of conflicts

A comprehensive decision support system called GMCA (Graph Model for Conflict Analysis) implementing the multi-player graph model for analyzing conflicts is developed. GMCA contains algorithms for the rapid computation of a wide range of solution concepts, thereby enabling decision makers to take account of the diversity of human behavior. Using an engineering case study, the key features of GMCA are illustrated.     

舞剧《妈勒访天边》带给文化创意产业的思考

文化创意产业是世界创意经济的一部分。作为文化创意产业,它在很大程度上影响、改变着我们日常工作、交往、休憩、娱乐以至内在心理世界的活动方式。文化创意产业的发展,是整个文化创意机制、文化传播构成与文化参与的行为活动方式的全面创新。     

Exotic dancers in an awkward negotiation: Implications for affect control theory

We use affect control theory (ACT) to test the veracity of mathematically derived predictions that an exotic dancer will act in ways that are consistent with societal expectations for her “deviant” label. We also explore the strategies that exotic dancers use to maintain the definition of the situation. Our findings indicate that exotic dancers do not define their own identities as predicted. Our data also demonstrate that participants in our study were at least as likely to manage the identities of others as they were their own identities. We conclude our paper by discussing our interpretations of the data and the veracity of ACT.     

Effective personalised housing support for people with disabilities – case study analysis

International policy trends favour personalised approaches to housing support for people with disabilities. Previous research is inconclusive about whether these approaches are effective compared to group home support in the way they use government resources and benefit clients, partly because it does not usually consider the experiences of people who use the support. In this research we compared six new, innovative case studies of personalised housing support to previous research about group home support. We included qualitative data about client experiences, in particular regarding social networks, decision making, community service use and participation in domestic tasks. We found that client outcomes were positive in all four categories, while the financial costs to clients and government were similar to group home support. The results offer evidence that current, personalised approaches to housing support can be an effective policy option that allows people with disabilities to make choices about how to live and participate in their communities, without increasing the cost to government.     

Normalizing post adoption support for all

Within a context of substantial adoption policy reform in England, this paper explores post adoption support. Findings from a small‐scale survey of 22 local authorities in England and interviews with 11 adoption practitioners (from 11 of the authorities that completed the survey) are presented and related national policy discussed. The paper argues that support should continue postmatching a child with their adoptive parent(s) and that this should be the norm rather than the exception. It also emphasizes the need to improve the availability of and access to post adoption support in a timely manner.     

Information management support for international negotiations

This paper examines the information processing requirements that surround the international negotiations process. General problem-solving models and generic task taxonomies are explored to provide insight into this process, a process that can be characterized as iterative options analysis. The paper also identifies a set of existing and emerging information technologies that can support the negotiation process, technologies that range from electronic mail to group decision support systems. The premise of the paper is that cost-effective information technology can support many important negotiation tasks and that existing technology has been vastly under-exploited by negotiators and their staffs. A program for introducing and evaluating information technology is also proposed.     

Policy instrument affordances: a framework for analysis

The present study uses the concept of technological efficacy derived from ecological psychology and design studies to offer an alternative way of analyzing how policy instruments affect change. Reasoning from this, the paper outlines a framework for analyzing policy instruments in terms of their affordances. We define affordances as the means through which an instrument exerts influence on its intended target audience. Using this approach, we contend that policy instruments may be analyzed as interfaces that organize social relations and create structures of opportunity and/or restrict possibilities for action. We argue that explicating the pathways through which instruments afford or constrain action is a central task for policy analysis. Our proposed framework of analysis builds on the idea that instruments yield effects by facilitating action and learning. We further contend that the actions that an instrument can facilitate or inhibit are determined by specific affordance modalities of the instrument in conjunction with contingencies of the actor and the policy environment. Examples from research policy are used to illustrate some of these effects.     

Explaining individual level support for organ procurement policy

The demand for human organs for transplantation – both from live and deceased donors – has become a public health issue in the United States, as thousands of Americans die each year due to the lack of a needed transplant. The current policy basis for organ procurement is voluntarism as federal organ procurement policy, based on the 1984 National Organ Transplant Act (NOTA), prohibits the exchange of human organs for “valuable consideration.” While an increasing number of policy analysts, including some ethicists, have advocated for financial incentives to induce more donations, a variety of factors – such as the legislative status quo, ongoing ethical concerns, and uncertain public support – have resulted in little use of financial incentives. We argue that a better understanding of public opinion is an important prerequisite for any move toward the use of financial incentives. Consequently, we develop and test a model to explain individual level attitudes toward legalizing and regulating the sale of human organs for transplant. We find that political ideology, gender, age and geographic region are important predictors of support.     

Measuring and framing support for universal basic income

We execute an original survey experiment to examine the extent and determinants of support for a nascent policy issue, universal basic income (UBI), in the American public. We explore the effects of how UBI is framed (either in the context of values or the context of policy), finding three key results. First, UBI is primarily a Democratic and liberal policy. Second, negative arguments against UBI move support for UBI more than positive arguments. Third, and surprisingly, respondents are equally affected by both policy-driven and value-driven arguments about UBI. In conclusion, an increase in messaging about UBI is likely to widen existing partisan differences in UBI support. These differences are unlikely to be won over by policy or values arguments.     

The Value of a Statistical Life: A Critical Review of Market Estimates Throughout the World

A substantial literature over the past thirty years has evaluated tradeoffs between money and fatality risks. These values in turn serve as estimates of the value of a statistical life. This article reviews more than 60 studies of mortality risk premiums from ten countries and approximately 40 studies that present estimates of injury risk premiums. This critical review examines a variety of econometric issues, the role of unionization in risk premiums, and the effects of age on the value of a statistical life. Our meta-analysis indicates an income elasticity of the value of a statistical life from about 0.5 to 0.6. The paper also presents a detailed discussion of policy applications of these value of a statistical life estimates and related issues, including risk-risk analysis.     

Laws and policies to support the wellbeing of children: an international comparative analysis

Nicklett EJ, Perron BE. Laws and policies to support the wellbeing of children: an international comparative analysis Int J Soc Welfare 2010: 3–7 © 2009 The Author(s), Journal compilation © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the International Journal of Social Welfare. The international community has raised concerns regarding the extent to which countries have implemented laws and policies to support the rights and wellbeing of children. This study evaluates the progress of least‐developed countries (LDCs) and middle‐income countries (MICs) in developing such legislation. Surveys were sent to 131 UNICEF country offices. Items included efforts to promote family preservation and family ties, family‐based care over institutionalization, and child participation in placement decisions. A total of 68 surveys were returned, reflecting a 52 percent response rate (LDC, n= 25; MIC, n= 43). Legislation that addressed abuse and neglect of children, maternity leave, removal of children from the family, family care, adoption, and guardianship was widespread. Chi‐square tests indicated that MICs had a substantially higher number of laws and policies related to child allowances, school feeding programs, maternity leave, and day care.     

Local authority family centre intervention: a statistical exploration of services as family support or family control

This paper sets out findings from a statistical exploration into services arising from child protection referrals which became open cases allocated to local authority child care social workers employed by a large local authority social services department in South Wales. The workers operate from six local authority family centres located in areas of high social need. They offer a range of family support services as well as carrying out child protection investigations and related activities. In analysing the data a probability ratio was created to identify which offered services were more likely to be taken up. An activity index for services offered and taken up was then constructed followed by an attempt to delineate families' likely orientation to a family support or 'protection and control' mode of intervention. This is achieved by creating a simple range of lower and upper bounds of perception by imputing service orientation from the position of three 'representative individuals': a 'very suspicious client', a 'neutral third party', and a 'very optimistic social worker'. These three positions allow manipulation of the questionnaire data to estimate the probable interpretation of services from provider and recipient standpoints. From these sources parameter estimates to explore key variables associated with worker views about the sufficiency of their service in relation to family support and/or more controlling forms of intervention are deployed. The study suggests that child protection cases receive a family centre service strongly orientated to support rather than a narrow policing activity. However, there remain some notable differences of perception between worker and 'representative individuals' that imply potential difficulties over the role of local authority family centres.