Expectations, Disappointment, and Rank-Dependent Probability Weighting

We develop a model of Disappointment in which disappointment and elation arise from comparing the outcome received, not with an expected value as in previous models, but rather with the other individual outcomes of the lottery. This approach may better reflect the way individuals are liable to experience disappointment. The model obtained accounts for classic behavioral deviations from the normative theory, offers a richer structure than previous disappointment models, and leads to a Rank-Dependent Utility formulation in a transparent way. Thus, our disappointment model may provide a clear psychological rationale for the subjective transformation of probabilities.     

Correcting expected utility for comparisons between alternative outcomes: A unified parameterization of regret and disappointment

A unified parameterization of an expected utility model corrected for regret and disappointment effects is presented, constrained to conform to a well-known choice pattern, the common consequence effect, a special case of the Allais paradox. For choices subject to regret and disappointment effects to be consistent with this choice pattern, the function that corrects the utility of the obtained outcome has to have a positive second derivative for its regret component and a negative second derivative for its disappointment component. These hypothesized functional forms make predictions about the relative effect that small vs. large differences between obtained and alternative outcomes should have on people’s experiences of regret or disappointment.

Axiomatization of a Preference for Most Probable Winner

In binary choice between discrete outcome lotteries, an individual may prefer lottery L₁ to lottery L₂ when the probability that L₁ delivers a better outcome than L₂ is higher than the probability that L₂ delivers a better outcome than L₁. Such a preference can be rationalized by three standard axioms (solvability, convexity and symmetry) and one less standard axiom (a fanning-in). A preference for the most probable winner can be represented by a skew-symmetric bilinear utility function. Such a utility function has the structure of a regret theory when lottery outcomes are perceived as ordinal and the assumption of regret aversion is replaced with a preference for a win. The empirical evidence supporting the proposed system of axioms is discussed.     

On the Brink of Disaster

Abstract

In recent years mental health professionals have become increasingly aware of their role in ameliorating the impact of disaster and have begun to develop models for systematizing interventions. As many have noted, however, these models are largely based on clinical wisdom due to the dearth of empirical data on disaster and its social and psychological consequences. This article describes one model of disaster intervention, the Triple ABCD Model, and provides evidence-based guidelines for determining possible hazards and risks to both individuals and communities. Key factors considered are intentionality, predictability, time frame, degree of threat, location, extent of disruption and destruction, and timeliness and sustainability of the outside resources. Implications for practice include the importance of considering both individual and community factors in assessing risk and resilience; the need for mental health practitioners to exercise both clinical and community building skills when responding to disaster; and the importance of training and education of mental health professionals that include emergency planning and response with a focus on supporting the public at both an individual and community level.     

Predictors of Posttraumatic Growth Among Adult Tsunami Survivors: The Role of Employment,Religion, and Family Attributes

ABSTRACT

This study examined the positive effects of trauma exposure among adult survivors of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami and was guided by a bioecological framework. A total of 301 adults from India were assessed for posttraumatic growth and a set of demographic, individual, family, and social capital variables. Hierarchical regression analysis revealed that religion, employment, family type, family flexibility, and family communication were significant predictors of posttraumatic growth. Contrary to expectations, individual factors and social capital did not contribute to posttraumatic growth. Findings imply that helping survivors make meaning out of their traumatic experience may facilitate posttraumatic growth. Intervention to promote increased employment opportunities and family resources is highly recommended for adult trauma survivors. Future trauma research should explore the role of perceived as well as actual familial and community resources, in addition to personal resources, in fostering posttraumatic growth.     

Fear of Ruin

This paper offers interpretations and applications of the “fear of ruin” coefficient (Aumann and Kurz, 1977, Econometrica). This coefficient is useful for analyzing the behavior of expected utility maximizers when they face binary lotteries with the same worse outcome. Comparative statics results of “more fear of ruin” are derived. The partial ordering induced by the fear of ruin coefficient is shown to be weaker than that induced by the Arrow-Pratt coefficient. JEL Classification: D81     

Ethnic Diversity Policy: Perceptions within the NHS

Ethnic diversity has become an important policy objective for the Labour government, particularly since the publication of the Macpherson Report (1999) . It is projected as a potential means of improving service provision in various policy areas from policing to the business sector. The contention of this article, based on research conducted in the NHS, is that much more thought needs to be given to the shape of ethnic diversity and its operationalization if services are to improve for society as a whole. The current shape of the concept, as perceived by the majority of the interview respondents who participated in the research (all of whom had responsibility for employment decisions within their organizations), promises at best disappointment, and at worst a further peripheralization of minority ethnic issues, for which communities themselves may be held responsible.     

Abstracts of theses,July 1955: Smith College School for Social Work

Abstract

This commentary amplifies the dynamic strategies in Message in a Bottleto consider in working with clients who seek to augment psychotherapy with psychopharmacologic treatment. This commentary also addresses how to evaluate and enhance psychotherapy outcome independent of medications and reviews some of the factors which contribute to positive treatment outcome. In order for clinicians to resist the pervasive colonizing effects of the medical model, this commentary reevaluates some of the claims that medications seem to promise and reinforces data which demonstrate that psychotherapy remains a safe and effective first-line treatment.     

Intergenerational Conflict,Attitudinal Familism,and Depressive Symptoms Among Asian and Hispanic Adolescents in Immigrant Families: A Latent Variable Interaction Analysis

ABSTRACT

Research has shown an association between intergenerational conflict (IC) due to acculturation and negative mental health outcomes, including depressive symptoms, among Asian and Hispanic adolescents from immigrant families. Using the data from the first survey of the Children of Immigrants Longitudinal Study, which included a culturally diverse sample of second-generation immigrant children, this study examines whether attitudinal familism (AF) moderates the effect of IC on depressive symptoms among Asian and Hispanic adolescents. Latent variable interaction models involving multiple-group comparisons were established. Results show that there is a significant buffering effect (b = –.05, p < .001). Specifically, a high level of AF is generally associated with fewer depressive symptoms compared with a low level of AF. These findings may inform the development of social service programs that aim to reduce IC by exposing immigrant adolescents to more traditional cultural values. Future research implications are discussed.     

Generalized Disappointment Models

Blessed is he who expects nothing, for he shall never be disappointed—Benjamin FranklinBased on our risk-value framework, this paper presents extensions for the disappointment models that were originally proposed by Bell (1985) and Loomes and Sugden (1986). We provide explicit functional forms for modeling the effect of disappointment on risky choice behavior that generalizes Bell's work and lends tractability to the efforts of Loomes and Sugden. Our generalized disappointment models can explain a number of decision paradoxes, and offer additional insights into nonexpected utility preferences based on the intuitive notions of disappointment and risk-value tradeoffs.     

A theoretically-consistent empirical model of non-expected utility: An application to nuclear-waste transport

Few theoretically-consistent empirical models addressing the relationship between ambiguity, risk, and preferences for health and safety exist. To fill this gap, we propose a theoretical non-expected-utility model (NEUM) that is relatively easy to estimate using an interval-data model. The NEUM we develop hinges upon two sources of variability, one over risk and the other over ambiguity about the risk. Using data from a survey of Nevada residents concerning risks from nuclear-waste transport, we provide individual-specific welfare estimate for a risk increase. Our findings suggest that negative externalities from nuclear-waste transport perceived risks and ambiguity may be substantial. JEL Codes D81 · D62 · Q53 · Q51     

Rule utilitarianism,rights, obligations and the theory of rational behavior

The paper first summarizes the author's decision-theoretical model of moral behavior, in order to compare the moral implications of the act-utilitarian and of the rule-utilitarian versions of utilitarian theory. This model is then applied to three voting examples. It is argued that the moral behavior of act-utilitarian individuals will have the nature of a noncooperative game, played in the extensive mode, and involving action-by-action maximization of social utility by each player. In contrast, the moral behavior of rule-utilitarian individuals will have the nature of a cooperative game, played in the normal mode, and involving a firm commitment by each player to a specific moral strategy (viz. to the strategy selected by the rule-utilitarian choice criterion) — even if some individual actions prescribed by this strategy, when considered in isolation, should fail to maximize social utility.The most important advantage that rule utilitarianism as an ethical theory has over act utilitarianism lies in its ability to give full recognition to the moral and social importance of individual rights and personal obligations. It is easy to verify that action-by-action maximization of social utility, as required by act utilitarianism, would destroy these rights and obligations. In contrast, rule utilitarianism can fully recognize the moral validity of these rights and obligations precisely because of its commitment to an overall moral strategy, independent of action-by-action social-utility maximization.The paper ends with a discussion of the voter's paradox problem. The conventional theory of rational behavior cannot avoid the paradoxical conclusion that, in any large electorate, voting is always an irrational activity because one's own individual vote is extremely unlikely to make any difference to the outcome of any election. But it can be shown that, by using the principles of rule-utilitarian theory, this paradox can easily be resolved and that, in actual fact, voting, even in large electorates, may be perfectly rational action. More generally, the example of rule utilitarianism shows what an important role the concept of a rational commitment can play in the analysis of rational behavior.     

Pathway to Financial Success: Autonomy Through Financial Education in India

ABSTRACT

This study evaluates attitudinal outcome of financial education workshops on the financial autonomy of the participants (homemakers) in the state of Gujarat, India. A series of financial education workshops were conducted with 300 female homemakers. A pretest and follow-up (after 3 months) survey design was used to assess changes. The survey identified 3 types of autonomy outcomes (reflexive, emotional, and functional) using 15 variables. Data were analyzed using a paired t test, and significant results were obtained between the pretest and follow-up surveys. Specific findings may help financial education providers to design and implement such programs more effectively and may provide guidelines to assess their effect. Directions for future research are suggested.     

Assessing the Effects of an Asset-Building Program in Resource-Constrained Households: The Case of Sub-Saharan Africa

ABSTRACT

Using a survey that was administered individually to respondents at set locations, this study examines the effects of participation in an asset-building program in resource-constrained households in rural Ghana (n = 120 in the experimental group and n = 120 in the comparison group). Results suggest the program is effective in reaching the most economically vulnerable households. We also learned that program participation was related to ownership of social assets, as well as psychosocial and financial well-being. Program characteristics, including trust among members and time spent on program-related activities, were related to enhanced social and financial assets, respectively. A number of implications emerge from this study. Given that the program, although effective in reaching the most economically vulnerable households, did not produce significant outcomes in such households, attention may be devoted to understanding ways to enhance the welfare of vulnerable program participants. A targeted approach may be a viable option. With respect to policy, consideration could be given to incorporating microfinance models in poverty alleviation strategies. Continued research using more rigorous design is needed to explore the relationship between microfinance and the welfare of vulnerable participants.     

Relative Risk Aversion: What Do We Know?

The relative risk aversion measure that represents the risk preferences of a decision maker depends on the outcome variable that is used as the argument of the utility function, and on the way that outcome variable is defined or measured. In addition, the relationship between any two such relative risk aversion measures is determined by the relationship between the corresponding outcome variables. These well-known facts are used to adjust several reported estimates of relative risk aversion so that those estimates can be directly compared with one another. After adjustment, the significant variation in the reported relative risk aversion measures for representative decision makers is substantially reduced. JEL Classification: D81     

Angry girls: Behavior control by girls in latency 1

Abstract

Diagnostic, etiological, and treatment factors which contribute to the understanding of borderline personality disorder are examined from an empirical perspective. Studies of the disorder over the last decade show that there is considerable confusion as to the salient diagnostic and etiological factors which are relevant for predicting treatment type, duration, and outcome. This paper presents a review of studies which have addressed the multiple diagnostic features and early life developmental experiences of the disorder. In addition, three models of treatment currently being investigated for their effects with borderline patients are summarized. Specific emphasis is placed on the clinical implications of the research findings.     

Caregivers' Coping and Self-Forgiveness After the Death of a Care-Receiver

ABSTRACT

This study explores the relationship of self-forgiveness with adaptive coping and nonadaptive coping. This study addresses self-forgiveness as part of the grieving process of Alzheimer's disease caregivers. One hundred and thirty-three caregivers who had recently lost a loved one were surveyed. The bivariate analysis revealed a significant relationship between self-forgiveness and adaptive coping and non-adaptive coping. Furthermore, stepwise regression models computed for the study variables revealed that adaptive coping and non-adaptive coping were statistically significant in explaining the variation in self-forgiveness. Based on these findings, future directions in research are explored.     

Complementary properties of binary relations

After defining the complementary relation R of a binary relation R on a set X, this paper constructs the binary relation C (is a complementary property of) on the set P of nine well known elementary properties that R might possess. It deduces some theorems about C; especially that symmetry is the only one of these possible properties of R on X that is possessed by C on P. The set P may be enlarged to contain other elementary properties of R on X without changing the truth of these theorems, when the symbols of sets are properly modified. Finally, the paper discusses the desirability of a general theory of elementary properties of binary relations for the further development of statistical decision theory.     

The Family Contexts of Gender Development in Childhood and Adolescence

We review research on the family's role in gender development during childhood and adolescence. Our discussion highlights children's dyadic family relationship experiences with their parents and siblings; additionally, we describe ways in which the larger system of family relationships, including gendered dynamics in the marriage and the differential family experiences of sisters versus brothers may have implications for gender development. We also emphasize the significance of contextual factors—ranging from situational demands and affordances to forces emanating from the larger social ecology—in family gender socialization. We conclude that family experiences may have a more important impact on gender development than has previously been believed, and we highlight directions for future study. These include: (1) applying more complex models of parent socialization and family dynamics to the study of the family's role in gender development; (2) expanding on research directed at the socialization of sex differences to study how family dynamics are linked to individual differences in girls’ and boys’ gendered qualities and behaviors; and (3) further exploring how contextual factors exert an impact on gender socialization in the family.