Estimating the incidence and prevalence of birth orders: A technique using census data

Although birth order is recognized as an important social variable, the incidence of various birth orders is often difficult to assess using vital statistics. A technique is described whereby the incidence of birth orders in a population may be estimated directly from census data on the number of children ever born to post-menopausal women. The technique has the advantages of allowing ready utilization of existing and widely available data, based on very large samples on which considerable supplementary information is available. In addition, it draws attention to a relatively neglected aspect of differential fertility, namely, the child’s perspective as opposed to the mother’s view. Limitations of the technique relating to quality of data, to multiple births, and to differentials in infant and maternal mortality are discussed, and possible applications in demography and sociology are suggested.     

Vital rates in India 1961-71 estimated from 1971 census data

Abstract In the last decade the increase in the population of India, while, of course, very large, was smaller than predicted by official forecasts. With the use of recent census and sample registration data - in the absence of age-specific rates and adequate vital statistics - this paper provides estimates of fertility and mortality through the reverse-survival and forward-projection methods. Birth rates are estimated as 40·5-42, death rates as 18-20, and life expectancy at birth as 45-46 years. Mortality decline had been smaller than forecast but more than during any comparable period in the past, even though current mortality levels, particularly infant mortality, are still high. Males continue to have a longer life expectation than females, with a difference that has widened in the past decade. The decline of between seven and ten per cent in the crude birth rate is largely due to changes in marital fertility and to some extent to changes in age and marital composition. Because of greater decline in death rates than birth rates, the 1961-71 decade shows a higher rate of population growth than previous periods.     

Estimating maternal mortality differentials using census data: experience in Honduras

High levels of maternal mortality in developing countries are considered a major public health problem. Over the past decade several international conferences on health have stated the necessity to reduce maternal mortality in developing countries. This is a challenge not only in terms of achieving it but also from the point of view of monitoring it. I use national population censuses to measure maternal mortality and study mortality regional differentials in Honduras, which identified maternal mortality in its most recent census. I also use standard demographic methods to evaluate the census data quality, for both population and death counts, and to evaluate the completeness and coverage of household death data.     

Estimating historic population data for small geographies using census housing information

Historical population data for small geographies (e.g. blocks, block-groups, and census tracts) are not available for periods earlier than 1980. In this research note, we propose a geographically-constrained housing unit method (GHUM) to estimate historic population for small geographies using housing age data available in the 1980–2000 censuses. The GHUM is a two-stage method. The first stage follows a traditional housing unit method and provides initial household and group quarter population estimates for small geographies. The second stage takes advantage of the availability of historic data for larger geographies (e.g. counties, states) to adjust the first stage estimates and to provide final estimates. The GHUM is used to estimate 1940–1990 county population and census tract population in Kentucky. The quality of the population estimates is assessed. A two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov test indicates that these estimates are statistically reliable at the 10 % significance level.     

Estimating census and death registration completeness

This article presents a new method for estimating the relative completeness of 2 census enumerations and of intercensal registered deaths. The Growth Balance Equation was developed by Brass (1975) to estimate the completeness of death registration relative to the completeness of census enumeration. The method presented here can be seen either as an extension of Martin's formulation to allow explicitly for changes in census coverage or as a modification of Brass's method to use deaths by age group rather than deaths by cohort, preferable on the grounds that age group comparisons will be less distorted by age misreporting than cohort comparisons if the patterns of age misreporting are similar for 2 successive censuses. This simple method estimates simultaneously the relative coverage of the 2 censuses and the completeness of registration of intercensal deaths. The key assumptions of the method are that the population is closed to migration and that all the coverage factors involved are invariant with age, at least for the age range studied. Analysis of the sensitivity of the estimates to the assumptions and further work on extending the method to open populations would be useful.     

Understanding the 1996 census migration data

The Australian Census provides two approaches to measuring migration: indicators which distinguish movers from non-movers, and a geographic classification which identifies each person’s usual residence on census night, and their usual address one year and five years previously. Although these data represent a rich source of information, they contain several traps for the unwary. We show that differences in the variables and classifications used can result in marked variations in the apparent intensity and patterns of migration. The questionnaire and processing methodology used in the 1996 Census also resulted in a number of inconsistencies between the migration indicators and the usual address information. We examine the magnitude and source of these anomalies, assess their implications and propose a partial solution. The views expressed in this paper are personal and do not necessarily reflect those of the Australian Bureau of Statistics.     

Population growth trends in India: 1991 census

The decennial census counted the total population of India at 843.931 million as of the sunrise of March 1, 1991. The total is 160.6 million higher than that of a decade earlier in 1981. The actual census count exceeded by 45 million the official projections for 1991 based on the 1971 census. However, the official projections for the same year based on the 1981 census fell short by 7.6 million only. Most of the observed differences are explained by the slower decline in the fertility levels. The population growth ratepeaked during 1971–81, perhaps in 1972–73 (based on the Sample Registration Scheme data). The average annualexponential growth rate declined marginally to 2.11 per cent (4.5%) after having remained at a plateau for the previous two decades of 1961–71 and 1971–81. At this point in time, the fertility and mortality trends indicate that India will reach the replacement level fertility [Net Reproductive Rate of Unity] by the years 2010–2015. It can be said with a greater degree of certainty that the official target of reaching the replacement level fertility by the year 2000a.d. will not be reached. Based on the 1991 census results, it can be said that India will reach the billion mark by the turn of the century. The World Bank projects a population of 1,350 million by the year 2025a.d., and a stationary population of 1,862 million by the year 2150a.d., assuming that the replacement level fertility [Net Reproductive Rate = 1] in India is reached about the year 2015a.d.     

Interpolation and forecasting of population census data

Since population censuses are not annually implemented, population estimates are needed for the intercensal period. This paper describes simultaneous implementations of the temporal interpolation and forecasting of the population census data, aggregated by age and period. Since age equals period minus cohort, age-period-cohort decomposition suffers from the identification problem. In order to overcome this problem, the Bayesian cohort (BC) model is applied. The efficacy of the BC model for temporal interpolation is examined in comparison with official Japanese population estimates. Empirical results suggest that the BC model is expected to work well in temporal interpolation. Regarding the age-period-cohort decomposition of the Japanese census data, it is shown that the cohort effect is the largest while the other two effects are very small but not negligible. With regard to the forecasting of the Japanese population, the official population forecast considerably outperforms the BC forecast in most forecast horizons. However, the pace of increase in root mean square error for longer-term forecasting is larger in the official population forecast than in the BC forecasts. As a result, a variant of the BC forecast is best for 10-year forecast.     

Estimating African-American mortality from inaccurate data

This paper evaluates the quality of vital statistics and census data for estimating African-American mortality over a period of six decades. The authors employ intercensal cohort comparisons and extinct generation estimates to demonstrate that conventionally constructed African-American death rates may be seriously flawed as early as age 50. Using the crude death rate at ages 50+ for 1978-1982 in conjunction with estimated growth rates and two model life table systems, the authors estimate black age-specific death rates in 1978–1982. These results suggest that if a racial crossover in death rates occurs, the age pattern of mortality among African-Americans must be far outside the range observed in populations with more accurate data.     

Collection and publication of population census data]

Some characteristics of the 1982 census of China are described. The discussion covers the manual and machine processing of data, how much detailed data will be available, individual and categorized data, and total and desired data. The major categories of data to be made available, including age, sex, fertility, and mortality statistics, are listed. The author notes that the results will be released in three stages, with the final results available by the end of 1984.     

Consistent correction of census and vital registration data

A new procedure is developed for simultaneously and consistently correcting 2 or more censuses and intercensal registered births and deaths. The procedure begins with a set of preliminary correction factors, which are not necessarily consistent. It then uses the mathematics of finite-dimensional vector spaces to derive an optimal set of final consistent correction factors. The optimization procedure is based on the principle that there exists in a hyperplane a unique point of minimum distance from a fixed point not in the hyperplane. For purposes of illustration, the procedure is applied to the censuses of 1970, 1975, and 1980 and intercensal registered births and deaths for the periods 1970-1975 and 1975-1980 for the Republic of Korea.     

African-American marriage in 1910: Beneath the surface of census data

This paper examines the quality of information about marital status, marital duration, and marriage order among African-American women in the U.S. Census of 1910. It compares the reported prevalence of widowhood to estimates of widowhood based on the mortality of black men and on the ages of women at first marriage. It also compares the reported distributions of duration of first marriage to estimates based on mortality and on age at first marriage. It concludes that census reports are subject to serious error. Widowhood is overreported, and marital turnover appears to have been faster than implied by census reports. The prevalance of "own children" is used to confirm these conclusions and to suggest motivations for misreporting.     

The uses and analysis of census data in the Philippines. Demographic note

The collection of census data on a given population is largely expensive for nations. Census do, however, help program planners and administrators understand prevailing economic and social conditions, as well as cultural characteristics within the country. Explaining the political, legislative, administrative, and research and academic uses of such data, specific application in the Philippines is presented. Where 1 representative is allowed per 250,000 population in the Philippine House of Representatives, data are necessarily employed politically to determine the total number of representatives to be elected from respective legislative districts. Politicians also use this data in the formulation of political strategy, while election registrars need it to validate the number of registered voters per precinct. Legislatively, census data are used at the national level to define and create administrative areas according to the number of inhabitants. National services and national revenues, as well as permits, are also allotted on the basis of area population size. Furthermore, a host of administrative demands in both the public and private sectors are met by these data, including planning, policy making, and managerial tasks. Academicians and researchers depend upon these data in demonstrating the impact of population growth on the environment, linking population studies to other disciplines, and examining social characteristics and population behavior. Steps taken in the planning of and preparation for the 1990 population and housing censuses are discussed.