Power of Enforcement and Dictatorship

A new Arrovian impossibility is obtained without invoking independence of irrelevant alternatives type assumptions. The new conditions leading to the impossibility are based on the concept of power of enforcement, and specify how this power can (see A3) or cannot be expanded (see A1, A2 and A4).     

Separating marginal utility and probabilistic risk aversion

This paper is motivated by the search for one cardinal utility for decisions under risk, welfare evaluations, and other contexts. This cardinal utility should have meaningprior to risk, with risk depending on cardinal utility, not the other way around. The rank-dependent utility model can reconcile such a view on utility with the position that risk attitude consists of more than marginal utility, by providing a separate risk component: a probabilistic risk attitude towards probability mixtures of lotteries, modeled through a transformation for cumulative probabilities. While this separation of risk attitude into two independent components is the characteristic feature of rank-dependent utility, it had not yet been axiomatized. Doing that is the purpose of this paper. Therefore, in the second part, the paper extends Yaari's axiomatization to nonlinear utility, and provides separate axiomatizations for increasing/decreasing marginal utility and for optimistic/pessimistic probability transformations. This is generalized to interpersonal comparability. It is also shown that two elementary and often-discussed properties — quasi-convexity (aversion) of preferences with respect to probability mixtures, and convexity (pessimism) of the probability transformation — are equivalent.     

Child Poverty in Rural China: Multidimensional Perspective

This paper describes a pilot study on child multidimensional poverty in rural China by introducing the Alkire–Foster method based on survey data collected from five provinces/autonomous regions. Results showed that the headcount ratio of child multidimensional poverty was 14.29%. On average, multidimensionally poor children were deprived in 37.62% of all the dimensions, and their adjusted headcount ratio (multidimensional poverty) index was 0.054. Health was the most deprived dimension, followed by the subsistence and participation dimensions. Disabled children, children influenced by HIV/AIDS, and ethnic minority children were severely deprived. This study not only adds to the current literature on child poverty in China, but also provides policy suggestions for future action plans.     

Multidimensional bargains and the desirability of ex post inefficiency

In multidimensional bargaining situations where individuals possess relevant private information, say about preferences, allocational efficiency is a central concern. Even if there is no squabbling over distribution—for example, if contingent commitments on allocations can be made before private information is secured—honest revelation comes only by sacrificing efficiency. Indeed, the incentive-compatible, second-best outcomes generally require that some allocations be off the contract curve (ex post inefficient). The potential for recontracting, by ruling out such inefficient allocations and the second-best equilibria they support, would hurt matters further.Support was received from the Decision, Risk and Management Science Program of the National Science Foundation. Rachel Algaze Croson provided able assistance; referees provided helpful comments.     

Preference Reversals and Induced Risk Preferences: Evidence for Noisy Maximization

We combine two research lines: preference reversal research (Lichtenstein and Slovic, 1971) and research on lottery-based risk preference induction (Roth and Malouf, 1979). Our results are informative for both research lines. We show that inducing risk preferences in preference reversal experiments has dramatic effects. First, while our subjects still display reversals, they do not display the usual pattern of predicted reversals suggested by the compatibility hypothesis. By inducing risk averse and risk loving preferences, we can dramatically reduce reversal rates and even produce the opposite pattern of reversals. Our results are consistent with the assumption that subjects maximize expected utility with error. This provides evidence that Camerer and Hogarth's (1999) framework for incentive effects can be extended to include the risk preference induction reward scheme.     

Intensity and persistence of individuals' social exclusion in Australia

We construct a measure of social exclusion that recognises its multidimensionality at the individual level, including its potential variability in intensity at a point in time and in persistence over time. We distinguish seven dimensions or domains of social exclusion: material resources; employment; education and skills; health and disability; social; community; and personal safety. For each of these seven domains, several indicators of social exclusion are produced. Our exclusion measure identifies 20 to 30 per cent of the Australian population aged 15 years and over as experiencing ‘marginal’ or worse levels of exclusion at any given point in time. However, there is considerable variation in both the extent and persistence of exclusion among the excluded. We further find that, although there are commonalities in the demographic composition of the socially excluded and the income poor, there are also some important differences. For example, persons 65 years and over represent a much smaller share of the most ‘excluded’ group than they do of the ‘poorest‘; and – adopting a household‐level measure of exclusion – children represent a larger share of the excluded than they do of the poor.     

Conditional Desirability

Conditional attitudes are not the attitudes an agent is disposed to acquire in event of learning that a condition holds. Rather they are the components of agent's current attitudes that derive from the consideration they give to the possibility that the condition is true. Jeffrey's decision theory can be extended to include quantitative representation of the strength of these components. A conditional desirability measure for degrees of conditional desire is proposed and shown to imply that an agent's degrees of conditional belief are conditional probabilities. Rational conditional preference is axiomatised and by application of Bolker's representation theorem for rational preferences it is shown that conditional preference rankings determine the existence of probability and desirability measures that agree with them. It is then proven that every conditional desirability function agrees with an agent's conditional preferences and, under certain assumptions, every desirability function agreeing with an agent's conditional preferences is a conditional desirability function agreeing with her unconditional preferences.     

Backward Induction Is Not Robust: The Parity Problem and the Uncertainty Problem

A cornerstone of game theory is backward induction, whereby players reason backward from the end of a game in extensive form to the beginning in order to determine what choices are rational at each stage of play. Truels, or three-person duels, are used to illustrate how the outcome can depend on (1) the evenness/oddness of the number of rounds (the parity problem) and (2) uncertainty about the endpoint of the game (the uncertainty problem). Since there is no known endpoint in the latter case, an extension of the idea of backward induction is used to determine the possible outcomes. The parity problem highlights the lack of robustness of backward induction, but it poses no conflict between foundational principles. On the other hand, two conflicting views of the future underlie the uncertainty problem, depending on whether the number of rounds is bounded (the players invariably shoot from the start) or unbounded (they may all cooperate and never shoot, despite the fact that the truel will end with certainty and therefore be effectively bounded). Some real-life examples, in which destructive behavior sometimes occurred and sometimes did not, are used to illustrate these differences, and some ethical implications of the analysis are discussed.     

Lottery Acquisition versus Information Acquisition: Prices and Preference Reversals

Journal of Risk and Uncertainty - Suppose you must choose between two pieces of information A and B. In the absence of cost, you would prefer to obtain A rather than B, and in fact would be willing...     

Absolute and Relative Time-Consistent Revealed Preferences

We introduce an Absolute (Relative) Time-consistent Axiom of Revealed Preference which characterizes the consistency of a choice function with the property of absolute (relative) time-consistency and impatience. The axiom requires that the absolute (relative) time-consistent and impatient closure of the revealed preference relation does not conflict with the strict revealed preference relation.     

Poverty assessment as a multidimensional socio-economic concept: the case of the Rawalpindi region in Pakistan

The definition on poverty has progressed into a multidimensional concept focusing more on socio-economic dimensions than being a mere measure of financial deprivation. Corresponding to this advancement, this study investigated the incidence of multidimensional poverty (MDP) in the Rawalpindi region of Pakistan, taking into account three dimensions, i.e. education, health and housing. Findings revealed an inconsistent declining trend of MDP over time. This inconsistency was mainly attributed to observed fluctuations in deprivation levels of education, health and housing in the region. Over time, education deprivation showed a significant net increase. Notably, the magnitude of MDP in rural areas was higher than in urban areas.     

An experimental evaluation of the descriptive validity of lottery-dependent utility theory

This article compares the performance of the expected utility (EU) and lottery-dependent expected utility (LDEU) models in predicting the actual choices of experimental subjects among risky options. In the process, we present two approaches for calibrating the LDEU model for an individual decision maker. The results indicate that while LDEU exhibits a higher potential for correctly predicting choice, the version of the model calibrated by indifference judgments does not outperform EU. We suggest a functional form for the parametric functions that defines the LDEU model, and discuss ways in which this function can be incorporated into choice-based assessment approaches to improve predictions.This research was supported in part by the Business Associates Fund at the Fuqua School of Business, Duke University.     

Ingroup and outgroup preference and rejection among young children of different ethnic groups in the Netherlands

The current study investigated the ethnic hierarchy in ingroup and outgroup preference and rejection among 6- to 10-year-old children of the dominant White Dutch group (n = 145), and the underrepresented Turkish-Dutch (n = 78), and Afro-Dutch (n = 57) groups (55% girls, M = 7.49, SD = .98) in the Netherlands. Results from a social preference task indicated that White Dutch children showed clearly more preference for their own ethnic group (ingroup preference) compared to the two outgroup preferences (Middle Eastern and Black), while Turkish- and Afro-Dutch children showed limited ingroup preference. Both White and Turkish-Dutch children showed less preference for and more rejection of the Black outgroup compared to Afro-Dutch children. Younger children showed more Black rejection compared to older children. This study provides much-needed evidence for the generalizability of prejudice patterns in children beyond the United States, and suggests that interventions aimed at improving interethnic relations are already relevant at primary school age.     

人工智能与无用阶级问题

人工智能有可能取代人的工作从而使人沦为无用阶级是目前最令人担忧的社会问题。具体考察这一进程可以发现其中存在两个阶段:一是人工智能对部分人工作的取代,二是对人类全部工作的取代。后者其实是人和智能机器的新分工,人所从事的消费娱乐性活动成为人类的新型工作,人的有用性也从这些新型的价值创造活动中生成,从而需要我们重新定义工作和有用性。而前者则是更为复杂和棘手的社会问题,需要通过制度安排、价值观转型、设计和开发新的软工作等社会调节手段来加以解决,而且还可以上升到社会制度的分析,即通过克服资本主义式的应用来社会的建构人工智能的光明前景。人工智能技术作为人造物和社会建构的产物,在合理的社会使用中可以避免无用阶级的形成及其带来的社会问题,其本体论基础在于人类作为技术的主体可以主导一种基于人类中心论的人-机和谐关系。     

Peer and Friend Influences on Children's Eating

Peers and friends are perceived as important role models for the formation of children's attitudes and behaviours. A wealth of research has aimed to establish the contribution of peers and friends to children's developing eating behaviours, and their attitudes towards eating. This review describes and evaluates such research. Experimental research examining peer modelling of food consumption and liking is reviewed, and several individual child factors that are suggested to make children more or less receptive to peer and friend influences are discussed. The influence of children's perceptions of their peers’ and friends’ eating behaviours upon their own eating practices is also explored. The benefits of future longitudinal research to improve understanding of peer and friend influences on children's eating are emphasized.     

Precautionary behavior and willingness to pay for a mortality risk reduction: Searching for the expected relationship

This paper examines within-sample correlation between six different precautionary behaviors and stated willingness to pay for a mortality risk reduction. The paper also shows estimates of the value of a statistical life based on seat belt and bicycle helmet use as well as based on the stated willingness to pay for a risk reduction in traffic mortality. Contrary to the theoretical expectations, no correlation is found between precautionary behavior and stated willingness to pay. One major explanation is that females and the elderly take more precaution, but state a lower WTP for a risk reduction. The estimates of VSL from the different approaches are $11.0 million, $5.0 million and $2.8 million from stated WTP, bicycle helmet use and seat belt use, respectively.

“类聚群分”:当代中国中产阶层的多元构成及其多维政治取向

本文结合体制分割和市场状况两大维度,划分出五种中产阶层基本类型,并利用2015年中国社会状况综合调查数据（CSS）和潜类模型、多元对应分析技术,从政治关注、政治效能、政治信任、意见表达、集体行动五个关联性维度考察中产阶层的多维政治取向。结果显示,体制内两类中产阶层在很大程度上延续了再分配体制的特征,政治取向明显保守稳健;处于“高经济地位”和“低政治地位”的地位相悖位置的体制外新中产阶层（新社会阶层）展现了偏激进的政治取向;处于体制和市场“双重弱势”地位的体制外边缘中产和“老中产”则兼具政治激进和冷漠的复杂二重性,且这种二重性主要沿着年龄、市场机会和生活状况被分割开来。体制外的中产阶层构成潜在的不稳定因素,应在阶层整合、利益整合和畅通上升流动渠道等方面着力,培育并壮大中产阶层,使其更好地发挥社会“稳定器”的作用。     

On the Representation of Incomplete Preferences Over Risky Alternatives

We study preferences over lotteries which do not necessarily satisfy completeness. We provide a characterization which generalizes Expected Utility theory. We show in particular that various sure-thing axioms are needed to guaranteee the representability in terms of utility intervals rather than numbers, and to provide a linear interval order representation which is very much in the spirit of Expected Utility theory.     

Deconstructing maternal sensitivity: Predictive relations to mother‐child attachment in home and laboratory settings

Despite the well‐documented importance of parental sensitivity for child development, there is a lack of consensus regarding how best to assess it. We investigated the factor structure of maternal caregiving behavior as assessed at 12 months by the Maternal Behavior Q‐Sort (Pederson & Moran) with 274 mother‐infant dyads. Subsequently, we examined associations between these empirically‐derived dimensions and child attachment, assessed in the home and laboratory (final N = 157). Three dimensions of maternal behavior were identified, corresponding fairly closely to Ainsworth's original scales. They were labeled Cooperation/Attunement, Positivity, and Accessibility/Availability. Only Cooperation/Attunement consistently predicted home‐based attachment at 15 months and 2 years, and at comparable strength to the overall sensitivity score, suggesting that this construct may be central to sensitivity. At 18 months, compared to their primarily secure counterparts, different types of laboratory‐assessed insecure attachment were associated with different patterns of maternal behavior. Mothers in avoidant relationships (n = 18) were low on Cooperation/Attunement and Accessibility/Availability, but fairly high on Positivity. Mothers of disorganized infants (n = 11) were Cooperative/Attuned but somewhat less Positive toward, and less Accessible/Available to, their infants. A multidimensional approach to parental behavior may facilitate the identification of parenting precursors of insecure parent‐child relationships.