A model for analyzing insect stage-frequency data when mortality varies with time

Summary A model is developed for the analysis of insect stage-frequency data which may be applied to populations with age-dependent mortality. The analysis of stage-frequency data is divided into two steps. In the first step, the number of different mortality rates and their values are estimated. The second step provides estimates of developmental rates and variances for each developmental stage and in addition provides estimates of the number of recruits to each stage. The model may be used both in analysis and prediction of insect stage frequencies. Hence, in addition to estimating developmental and mortality rates from stage-frequency data, it may also be used as a simulation model for an insect population. The model is applied to two populations ofHemileuca oliviae Cockerell, a lepidopterous pest of New Mexico grasslands. The model identifies, in the two populations, different mortality rates that are related to plant productivity.     

Age-specific survivorship analysis ofHeliothis spp. Populations on cotton

Summary Population dynamics ofHeliothis virescens (F.) andHeliothis zea (Boddie) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) eggs and larvae were studied for two years in a small plot of cotton,Gossypium hirsutum (L.). Due to morphological and ecological similarities, the pooledHeliothis population was considered for most of the analyses. Two generations ofHeliothis eggs and larvae were completed during each year. Stage recruitment was estimated for the eggs and larval instars 2–6, and recruitment variances were estimated by a Monte Carlo method. A modified form of the Weibull distribution was developed and used as a model to characterize survivorship curves for each of the fourHeliothis generations. A Type I survivorship curve (mortality rate increasing with age) was inferred for both Generation 1 (early season) data sets, whereas a Type II survivorship curve (mortality rate constant and thus independent of age) was inferred for both Generation 2 (late season) data sets. The shapes of the survivorship curves for the individualH. virescens andH. zea populations were inferred to be the same as those for the pooled populations. Analysis of the contributions of various factors toHeliothis stage-specific mortality indicated that natural enemies (predators and parasites) and the availability of food for larvae were responsible for between-generation differences in survivorship patterns.     

Aggregation pattern of individuals and the outcomes of competition within and between species: Differential equation models

Summary The influence of spatial distribution pattern on the outcomes of intra- and interspecific competition is studied theoretically. The models developed are the generalized logistic andVolterra equations, whereLloyd’s indices of intra- and interspecies mean crowding were incorporated with their assumed linear relationship to mean density in order to express the intensity of crowding which is really effective to the existing individuals. It is shown that while the increasing patchiness of distribution has a pronounced effect of promoting the intraspecific competition and lowering the equilibrium density for individual populations, it generally relaxes the interspecific competition, making it easy for different species sharing the same niche, which would otherwise be incompatible, to coexist stably. These models thus provide a simplest theoretical basis to explain why many insect populations in nature are kept relatively rare in number and why a number of allied species often coexist freely sharing the same resource, against the “competitive exclusion principle” deduced from the originalVolterra equations.     

Two fish species competition model with nonlinear interactions and equilibrium catches

Summary Two species competition model is built up by assuming the hypothetical second order interactions in order to consider effects of exploitation on two competing fish species with non-linear interactions. Most important characteristic of this model, compared withLotka-Volterra type linear competition model, is that this model can possess multiple stable equilibrium points. Therefore there is a possibility that two species keeping the equilibrium state at one stable equilibrium point will be attracted to the other stable equilibrium point after a heavy perturbation. In this model reversible change of the fishing pressure does not always results in that of the equilibrium catch. In this sence MSY concept for single species can not be extended to this model. If there are multiple stable equilibrium points, the change of the dominant fish species, catastrophic and irreversible change of each equilibrium catch may be observed when the perturbation by the exploitation is added. This phenomenon immediately reminds us of the change of the dominant fish species between Japanese common mackerel and Pacific saury in the northwest Pacific Ocean. In case of the management of two competing fish species with nonlinear interactions, the consideration on the balance between the fishing pressure for each species may be as important as the decision on the catch limit for each species. MSY level for each species based on the single-species theory could be quite erroneous.     

Life tables for worker honeybees

Summary Life tables for worker honeybees covering all life span, and those for adults, were prepared for three seasonal cohorts,June bees, July bees andwintering bees. Survivorship curves forJune andJuly bees show a convex type being exceptional for insects, with relatively high mortality at egg and feeding larval stages and at later adult stage after most bees became potential foragers. Adult longevity greatly lengthens inWinteriing bees and survivorship curve drops approximately with the same rate. A remarkable similarity of survivorship curves for men and honeybees was demonstrated, apparently due to highly developed social care in both. Some comments were given on mortality factors. The importance of life tables for population researches was shown by applying our result to the population growth curve made byBodenheimer, based upon the data byNolan. At the asymptote of the uncorrected curve, the ratio of total population estimated by uncorrected curve to that by corrected curve reaches about 3∶2. Contribution No. 821 from the Zoological Institute, Faculty of Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, Japan. Contributions from JIBP-PT No. 45. This study was in part supportod by a grant in aid from the Ministry of Education for the special project research, “Studies on the dynamic status of biosphere.” Population and bioeconomic studies on the honeybee colonies. II. We express our sincere thanks to Dr. YosiakiIt?, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences, Tokyo, for his kind stimulation and advices to the present work.     

Implications of changes in arthropod distribution following chemical application

Summary The influence of pesticide application on the within-field distribution of arthropods was investigated forTetranychus urticae, the twospotted spider mite, on strawberries. Analyses of dispersions based onGreen's coefficient,Iwao's regression of mean crowding on the mean, andTaylor's power law all indicated that mite populations were highly aggregated initially. As densities increased, more of the avialable niches were filled, leading to a less clumped dispersion. However, pesticide applications causing greater than 99.9% mortality acted in a nearly density independant fashion and, although the originating populations were similar in number, did not produce dispersions equivalent to the initial migrants. As a result, ignoring these changes by developing sampling plans based on dispersion indices which generated a single slope for an entire data set, led to statistical errors that invalidated the sampling programs. In order to accurately reflect the field biology of the spidermites, sampling plans for pre and post-treatment populations were substantially different. The impact of such changes in dispersion were graphically demonstrated using both sequential and binomial sampling techniques. Both methods showed that fewer samples were necessary to estimate densities at a given precision level for post-treatment populations. Also, these techniques indicated that post-treatment populations had similar, but significantly different, dispersions. The implications of changes in pre and post-treatment dispersions, as well as problems associated with inconsistant dispersions following pesticide use, are discussed.     

Selection for divergent emigration rates in laboratory populations ofMusca domestica

Summary High and low emigration rates through a laboratory system were selected for in populations of house flies (Musca domestica L.). Emigration consisted of movement of flies from on plastic box to another by way of a connecting tube. Selection was carried out by first dividing a wild population of flies into two lines and then selecting for movement from the box in one line and against movement from the box in the other line. The selection experiment was performed twice. In both experiments a statistically significant difference between the two strains was obtained in three to four generations of selection. In the second experiment, after 5 genrations the mean number of high emigration rate flies emigrating in 1 hour was 4.37 times the mean number of low emigration rate flies and in 24 hours was 2.81 times the number of low emigration rate flies. The second experiment was terminated after 6 generations, but the first experiment was continued for 35 generations. In this case, divergence ceased in roughly 15 generations. The possible relevance of the findings to laboratory population experiments in which spatial discontinuities are included is discussed. This study was supported by a research grant of the National Science Foundation (Environmental Biology GB 4567) to Prof. DavidPimentel. The author wishes to thank Prof.Pimentel for his aid and encouragement.     

Group predatory behavior by the assassin bugAgriosphodrus dohrniSignoret (Hemiptera: Reduviidae)

Summary Nymphs ofAgriosphodrus dohrni Signoret (Reduviidae) have a strong gregariousness and show group predatory behavior. This study was conducted to clarify adaptive significance of group predation of this species, including laboratory observations and 6-year field surveys. In the laboratory, observations on both solitary and group attacking against armyworms were made at varying prey size classes to compare the capture success rate by solitary predators with that by groups. The efficiency in capturing the prey was significantly higher in group attacking at any prey size class compared. Data obtained from the field surveys indicated the tnedency for searching nymphs to feed in group and to increase the number of predators feeding per prey item with increasing prey size. Average sizes of prey captured were also larger in group feeding throughout the nymphal stage. In particular, it was remarkable that, when prey were “creeping” types, the upper size limit of prey eaten was dramatically increased.     

Time-specific life tables for the pea aphid,Acyrthosiphon pisum (Harris ), on alfalfa

Summary Time-specific life tables were constructed for three pea aphid,Acyrthosiphon pisum (Harris) (Homoptera: Aphididae), populations using a modification ofHughes' analytical procedure. All populations were studied on second-growth alfalfa (mid-June to mid-July) in south central Wisconsin; data for two populations were collected during 1980, and data for the third population were collected during 1982. The intrinsic rate of increase (r _m) estimated on a physiological time (day-degree) scale under field conditions but in the absence of natural enemies, provided a reliable estimate of potential population growth rate and was used in preference toHughes' approach of estimating potential population growth rates directly from stage structure data. Emigration by adult alatae and fungal disease were the major sources ofA. pisum mortality in each of the three populations studied. These factors were most important because of their impact on reducing birth rates within the local population. Parasitism was never greater than 9 percent. Mortality attributable to predation ranged from 0.0 to about 30.0%; however, even at the highest predator densitiesA. pisum populations increased exponentially.     

The impact of ciguatera fish poisoning within a changing Caribbean environment

Ciguatera fish poisoning stems from a naturally occurring neurotoxin. The occurrence of the toxin varies by fish species and locality. The risk of poisoning to humans has increased because of more intense exploitation of fisheries and depersonalization of markets. Both trends have been accelerated by tourism and rapidly growing resident populations.Recent fisheries development and management consultations have taken him to the Caribbean, the Northwest coast of the United States, and Mauritania, Africa.     

On the nature of errors involved in estimating stage-specific survival rates by Southwood's method for a population with overlapping stages

Summary This paper has examined the effect of within-stage mortality on the estimation of stage-specific survival rates bySouthwood's (1978, p. 358) method. As pointed out bySouthwood, both the severity and timing of mortality affect the mean duration of a life stage, and consequently the estimate of the number of individuals entering that stage. Knowledge of the form of the survivorship curve permits correction of the estimate under certain circumstances. The use ofSouthwood's method with two overlapping stages having different rates and patterns of mortality leads to complex errors in the estimation of survival for the first stage. The nature of these errors is examined analytically and via a simulation model.Southwood's method is fairly robust, with moderate differences in mortality rates leading to acceptable errors in estimating survival for the first stage. When both the rate and pattern of mortality in both life stages are the same, then the survival estimate is made without error. Precise estimates of stage-specific survival will not usually be possible withSouthwood's method because of the errors introduced by the very parameters being measured. Direct measurement of mortality rates and survivorship patterns (seeSouthwood, 1978, p. 309) is strongly advised, at least in preliminary work.     

Functional response and searching efficiency inPseudogonatopus flavifemur Esaki and Hash. (Hymenoptera: Dryinidae), a parasite of rice planthoppers

Summary The functional response ofPseudogonatopus flavifemur E & H (Hym., Dryinidae) was investigated by offering hosts (brown planthopper) at densities ranging from 8 to 160 per cage. The response curve was found to be sigmoid, i. e.Holling's (1959) Type III curve. In experiments involving 310 hosts per cage distributed unevenly in 5 densities (10, 20, 40, 80 and 160 per hill), and a different female parasite density each time (viz. 1, 2, 4, 8 or 16 per cage), the behavioral response was described well by the “random predator equation” ofRoyama (1971) andRoger (1972), which is a convex exponential curve. The area of discovery (a) decreased with an increase in female parasite density (P), and the relationship was described by the equation: loga=−1.0099−0.3638 logP. There was an apparent increase in handling time per host as the number of female parasites increased. Superparasitism, a rare phenomenon under natural conditions, was often observed in the laboratory. The potential ofP. flavifemur as a biocontrol agent of the brown planthopper is discussed.     

不同年龄组流动人口劳动生产率的差异 ——基于2015年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据的分析

基于2015年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据,采用明瑟工资方程研究了受教育程度和工作经验对不同年龄组流动人口劳动生产率影响的差异问题。结果表明:不同年龄组流动人口的劳动生产率呈倒“U”型分布,30—34岁年龄组的流动人口劳动生产率最高;从总体上看,受教育程度几乎对各个年龄组流动人口的劳动生产率均具有显著的正向影响,且对25—29岁年龄组的影响最大,随着年龄的上升,受教育程度对流动人口劳动生产率的影响呈先递增后递减的趋势,对55岁及以上年龄组的影响不再显著;工作经验仅对15—24岁年龄组流动人口的劳动生产率具有显著的正向影响,对30岁及以上年龄组的影响则显著为负,且工作经验与部分年龄组流动人口的劳动生产率呈“U”型关系。此外,性别、户口类型、流动范围、就业身份、婚姻状况和职业属性等社会基本特征变量对大部分年龄组流动人口的劳动生产率均具有显著的正向影响。     

Anopheles culicifacies giles: Adult ecological parameters measured in rural punjab province, pakistan using capture-mark-release-recapture and dissection methods, with comparative observations onAn. stephensi liston andAn. subpictus grassi

Summary Dispersal, immigration and emigration rates, horizontal and vertical survivorship and absolute population size were estimated for micropopulations ofAn. culicifacies, An. stephensi andAn. subpictus at a series of cattle sheds in rural Punjab Province, Pakistan, during November 1979 and May 1980 using capture-mark-release-recapture and dissection methods. Dispersal was temperature-related, with populations more vagile during May. Mean dispersal distance per individual was low for all species. More than 70% of all recaptures were taken at the point of release and the longest detected flight was 1250 meters. Horizontal survivorship was greater during November and was always less than vertical survivorship calculated from dissection agegrading data. Survivorship during the nulliparous period was greater than survivorship throughout total life, indicating the survivorship curve may be slightly sigmoid. Daily population sizes of endemic and immigrating females and males were calculated usingBailey's (1952) modification of the Lincoln Index, with the daily captures adjusted for immigration which was highest in May. Daily additions to the indoor resting population exclusive of immigrants were estimated using the method ofManly andParr (1968). The relationship of the present findings to malaria transmission and genetic control were discussed.     

Dispersion analyses and resource utilization of aphid parasitoids in a non-depletable environment

Summary Dispersions and resource utilization of primary and secondary parasitoids developing in non-depletable primary host populations were determined for an aphid-parasitoid community occurring on strawberries. Analyses of dispersions based onGreen's coefficient andLloyd's Patchiness Index indicated parasitized aphids were highly aggregated initially, became less aggregated as density increased, and remained aggregated following collapse of the aphid populations. The “index of aggregation” values calculated usingTaylor's Power Law concurred with results from the other indices, and the similarity of the regression coefficients from both seasons suggests that the index of aggregation may be characteristic for communities as well as species. Analysis withIwao's regression of mean crowding on the mean generated similar results when population data were stratified temporally, and also indicated that the individual was the basic unit of the population. In a non-depletable environment, oviposition of individuals exhibiting an aggregated dispersion pattern within clumps of hosts provides primary parasitoids with a suitable trade-off between energy utilization or genetic potential, and losses associated with hyperparasitism.     

The species-area relation III. A third model for a delimited community

A mathematical model of the species-area relation is described for a group of limited species. This model is a modification of that proposed earlier (Kobayashi, 1975), being assumed that the limited species are expected to occur in a habitat under consideration. The model equation gives a sigmoid species-log area curve implying that few rare species are found in a group of species. The good agreement between observation and this model is exemplified with the data of plant and arthropod communities. The implication of parameters involved are examined in connection with those of the preceding model, and the underlying ecology of the model is discussed.     

Continuous population estimates forDendroctonus frontalis Zimm. (Coleoptera: Scolytidae) occurring in infestations

Summary Infestations ofDendroctonus frontalis Zimm. are often observed to enlarge continuously by the colonization of new hosts in a pattern similar to a forest fire. This pattern of infestation growth presents unique problems in quantitatively estimating populations ofD. frontalis. Beetle populations on each infested tree in an infestation go through five processes: attack, oviposition, reemergence, survivorship, and emergence. These processes, which have been described mathematically in the literature, each take several days for completion. In order to follow the distribution and abundance ofD. frontalis throughout the course of development of a spot, we need a daily estimate of the number of beetles involved in each process on every tree. Since it is not practical to sample each tree daily, we developed a procedure whereby quantitative estimation procedures for within-tree populations were used in combination with the mathematical models for the life processes to produce a daily record of the number of adults successfully attacking trees, the number of eggs oviposited, the number of beetles reemerging, number of beetles surviving within the trees, and the number of beetles emerging. These daily estimates were then summarized for all trees in the spot for the duration of the infestation. The daily record of populations ofD. frontalis, used with information on infestation geometry, were suggested to be of value in describing and elucidating several important facets of population dynamics including dispersal patterns within infestations, between tree beetle loss (mortality), and time lags among the various population processes. The information reported can be used to develop simulation models of population dynamics or to validate existing models. Texas Agric. Experiment Stn. TA No. 14689.     

A model of the species rank-abundance relation for a community in an open habitat

Summary A mathematical model is proposed to describe the relationship between the abundance and the rank of species in order from the most abundant to the least in a community in an open habitat. This model is derived as a corollary of a species-area equation (Kobayashi, 1975) which could be expected in the case where the individuals of each species are uniformly distributed over a habitat area. Numerical simulation reveals that a rank-abundance curve for a universe results in different species-area or species-individual curves according to the spatial distribution of individuals, and that the relative abundance of each species in a sample varies with sample size unless the spatial distribution of individuals is uniform. A species-individual curve obtained bySanders’s (1968) rarefaction method agrees with that observed actually only for the spatially uniform distribution. Change in the pattern of rank-abundance curve with species diversity and with sample size is discussed in relation to the present model.