Contract Pricing in Consumer Credit Markets

We analyze subprime consumer lending and the role played by down payment requirements in screening high‐risk borrowers and limiting defaults. To do this, we develop an empirical model of the demand for financed purchases that incorporates both adverse selection and repayment incentives. We estimate the model using detailed transaction‐level data on subprime auto loans. We show how different elements of loan contracts affect the quality of the borrower pool and subsequent loan performance. We also evaluate the returns to credit scoring that allows sellers to customize financing terms to individual applicants. Our approach shows how standard econometric tools for analyzing demand and supply under imperfect competition extend to settings in which firms care about the identity of their customers and their postpurchase behavior.     

Information‐Sensitive Replenishment when Inventory Records Are Inaccurate

Inspired by recent empirical work on inventory record inaccuracy, we consider a periodic review inventory system with imperfect inventory records and unobserved lost sales. Record inaccuracies are assumed to arrive via an error process that perturbs physical inventory but is unobserved by the inventory manager. The inventory manager maintains a probability distribution around the physical inventory level that he updates based on sales observations using Bayes Theorem. The focus of this study is on understanding, approximating, and evaluating optimal forward‐looking replenishment in this environment. By analyzing one‐ and two‐period versions of the problem, we demonstrate several mechanisms by which the error process and associated record inaccuracy can impact optimal replenishment. Record inaccuracy generally brings an incentive for a myopic manager to increase stock to buffer the added uncertainty. On the other hand, a forward‐looking manager will stock less than a myopic manager, in part to improve information content for future decisions. Using an approximate partially observed dynamic programming policy and associated bound, we numerically corroborate our analytical findings and measure the effectiveness of an intelligent myopic heuristic. We find that the myopic heuristic is likely sufficiently good in practical settings targeting high service levels.     

The Impact of Corporate Social Responsibility Activities on the Consumer Purchasing Situation

To explore the impact of corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities on the consumer purchasing situation, we arranged a scenario where participants (n = 451) purchased workout clothes. The results (r = 0.996, p = 0.000) show that (1) relative to other relevant marketing activities, CSR activity was not the most salient antecedent stimulus, (2) general CSR activities may have a lower impact on purchasing behavior than more specific CSR activities, (3) some CSR activities may have a negative impact on purchasing behavior, and (4) CSR activities may have a different impact on different segments. We propose that the impact of CSR can be understood as rule-governed behavior situated in the consumer’s situation. A functional understanding of the impact of CSR on the purchasing situation could help companies to develop more effective marketing campaigns and, in addition, maintain activities that benefit not only the company but also society as a whole.     

跳跃-扩散条件下信用风险相关性度量的变结构Copula模型

针对现有研究大多只考虑扩散条件的不足,构建了跳跃-扩散条件下信用风险相关性度量的变结构Copula模型。运用1991~2010年中国上市公司的数据构建了行业信用风险指数,运用双指数跳跃扩散模型来识别行业信用风险的跳跃扩散点,发现在样本期,共同因素与行业特质因素引发了行业信用风险的多次跳跃。在识别跳跃点的基础上,构建了变结构Copula模型,该模型能较准确地描述信用风险相关性的变化,各行业之间的信用风险相关系数在0.5以上,并且上市公司信用风险的变化呈现出"一损俱损"的特征,而"一荣俱荣"的特征并不明显。构建的模型及实证结论将有助于理解信用风险相关或传染,从而为信贷组合管理和风险管理提供更多的方法与经验。     

战略过程：一个基于决策的数理模型

以标准的战略管理过程模型为基础,将战略过程解释为战略状态的演变过程,其中战略状态变化被解释为战略决策和外生随机扰动共同作用的结果,应用随机动态规划模型化战略决策理性。结果表明,采用动态规划技术不仅可以确定战略状态的价值(竞争优势)与相应的最优战略制定决策和战略实施决策序列,还可以识别战略过程中的信息揭示对企业价值(竞争优势)的影响。这些结果在一定程度上逻辑一致地支持了战略管理中以理性决策为基本假设的设计学派和计划学派的观点。     

基于ANP的农信机构客户经理综合评价研究

人员管理水平滞后于业务发展速度已成为制约我国农信机构进一步发展的瓶颈。本文以浙江农信系统内7家银行为研究样本, 通过问卷调查构建符合农信机构特点的客户经理综合评价指标体系;引进网络层次分析法(ANP)解决各指标相互影响且权重难以划分的问题;利用扎根理论和追问访谈验证指标体系的科学性和合理性;最后通过实例测算证明了评价模型的适用性。本文构建的ANP模型为我国农信机构开展客户经理的综合评价、提升管理水平提供了综合的理论框架和实用的技术工具。     

Managing Quality in the E‐Service System: Development and Application of a Process Model

In this paper, we develop a process model for assessing and managing e‐service quality based on the underlying components of the e‐service system and, in turn, address the growing need to look in more detail at the system component level for sources of poor quality. The proposed process model is comprised of a set of entities representing the e‐service system, a network defining the linking between all pairs of entities via transactions and product flows, and a set of outcomes of the processes in terms of quality dimensions. The process model is developed using Unified Modeling Language (UML), a pictorial language for specifying service designs that has achieved widespread acceptance among e‐service designers. Examples of applications of the process model are presented to illustrate how the model can be use to identify operational levers for managing and improving e‐service quality.     

Managing Demand Risk in Tactical Supply Chain Planning for a Global Consumer Electronics Company

We consider the problem of managing demand risk in tactical supply chain planning for a particular global consumer electronics company. The company follows a deterministic replenishment‐and‐planning process despite considerable demand uncertainty. As a possible way to formally address uncertainty, we provide two risk measures, “demand‐at‐risk” (DaR) and “inventory‐at‐risk” (IaR) and two linear programming models to help manage demand uncertainty. The first model is deterministic and can be used to allocate the replenishment schedule from the plants among the customers as per the existing process. The other model is stochastic and can be used to determine the “ideal” replenishment request from the plants under demand uncertainty. The gap between the output of the two models as regards requested replenishment and the values of the risk measures can be used by the company to reallocate capacity among different products and to thus manage demand/inventory risk.     

基于收益管理的动态定价研究综述

动态定价作为收益管理的重要手段之一对提高企业收益具有重要作用。本文对收益管理动态定价问题的几个构成要素进行了分析;对国外动态定价基本模型的研究文献进行了简单的评述;重点对动态定价的最新研究热点进行了综述并对其发展前景进行了展望;最后介绍了动态定价在中国的研究现状,旨在推动其在中国的研究与应用。     

Dynamic issues in the planning and control of integrated manufacturing hierarchies

Integrated manufacturing operations typically are organized along hierarchical lines. Characterized by product aggregation and time horizon, hierarchical decompositions aim at easing problems associated with the complexity and scale of the manufacturing function taken as a whole. Static models have been developed and employed which facilitate the analysis and functioning of these organizations. Existing models are valuable aids in assisting goal-planning functions, but provide little guidance for directing the pursuit of goals. This paper presents a new hierarchical model of integrated manufacturing operations based on concepts of management control. The model is congruent with commonly used static planning models, while at the same lime depicting real-time, goal-achievement efforts within a dynamic operating environment. Emphasizing the interactions between goal planning and goal achievement, the dynamic model provides a means of assessing the effects of decentralization and autonomy on the goal planning and achievement process. The model is used to identify two resource-consuming chain reactions linked to replanning and goal pursuit within the hierarchy. A simple example based on the dynamic extension of a typical static decomposition illustrates the key findings.     

Optimizing lot size and setup time in a JIT environment: a multiple objective application

The just-in-time (JIT) system has been studied extensively and implemented by a number of US firms as an ell'ective production system. The core of JIT involves determination of lot size and setup time reduction so as to increase manufacturing flexibility while minimizing the inventory level. This decision problem usually involves multiple conflicting objectives and mixed-model production. In this paper, goal programming (GP) is applied to a real-world JIT problem involving fabrication of different automotive and industrial rubber composite belts. The model results provide new insights concerning the conflicting nature of several goals, especially between meeting demand and reducing setup or idle time. Also, the GP solution is superior to the current JIT practice of the company.     

基于过程管理的工程项目多目标综合动态调控机理模型

针对现代项目管理控制的现实要求,提出以过程管理为基础,通过构建多目标综合调控模型,实现对工程项目多目标体系的综合集成化动态调控。在分析过程动态控制基本原理和多目标综合调控系统过程的基础上,融合控制论方法和网络技术方法,通过选取关键线路上的关键控制点,对控制目标进行实时监控,重点探讨了多目标综合动态调控模型和相应的调控规则机理,以便实现过程管理与多目标调控之间的统一。     

电子商务环境下的消费者行为研究

本文首先分析了电子商务环境下消费者行为相对于传统的商业模式所表现的特点:消费市场的细分化、服务需求的主流化、选择范围的扩大化和购买行为的理性化、生产和流通循环的直接化;然后分析了影响消费者网上购买行为的宏观和微观因素,最后建立了电子商务环境下的基于计划行动理论的消费者行为模型。     

Bisphenol A: How the Most Relevant Exposure Sources Contribute to Total Consumer Exposure

Bisphenol A (BPA) is an endocrine disrupting chemical that is found in human urine throughout industrial societies around the globe. Consumer exposure pathways to BPA include packaged food, household dust, air, and dental fillings. To date, information on the relative contribution of the different pathways to total consumer exposure is lacking, but is key for managing substance‐associated risks. We investigated the relative contributions of the pathways known to be most relevant for nine different consumer groups. Our results suggest that the most important pathways for infants and children are the use of polycarbonate (PC) baby bottles and for adults and teenagers the consumption of canned food. Dental surgery can also considerably contribute over a short time directly after the surgery. For infants fed with PC baby bottles with mean dose rates of 0.8 μg/kg_bw/d the highest exposure dose rate was calculated. This dose rate is far below the tolerable daily intake of 50 μg/kg_bw/d. However, it is of the same order of magnitude as recently reported concentrations that caused low‐dose health effects in rodents. We find a pattern of falling exposure levels with rising age that is supported by urinary concentrations of BPA available for selected consumer groups. Similarly, the exposure levels we predict are confirmed by the levels reported in these studies.     

Coordinating Sales and Raw Material Discounts in a Global Supply Chain

In this paper, the supplier of a key component to a global manufacturer offers a one‐time price discount; we study the firm's optimal response to the discount under two different strategies. In the first strategy, the firm does not pass along the discount to its customers (sales subsidiaries); the firm simply coordinates purchasing and production among the different factories to take advantage of this one‐time price discount. In the second strategy, the firm offers price discounts for its most profitable products in different sales subsidiaries to increase their demand. We carried out experiments for the two strategies based on a mathematical programming model, built around Toshiba's global notebook supply chain. Model constraints include, among others, material constraints, bill‐of‐materials, capacity and transportation constraints, minimum lot size constraints, and a constraint on minimum fill rate (service level constraint). Unlike most models of this type in the literature, which define variables in terms of single arc flows, we employ path variables, which allow for direct identification and manipulation of profitable and non‐profitable products.     

A Specialized Inventory Problem in Banks: Optimizing Retail Sweeps

Deposits held at Federal Reserve Banks are an essential input to the business activity of most depository institutions in the United States. Managing these deposits is an important and complex inventory problem for two reasons. First, Federal Reserve regulations require that depository institutions hold certain amounts of such deposits at the Federal Reserve Banks to satisfy statutory reserve requirements against customers' transaction accounts (demand deposits and other checkable deposits). Second, some inventory of such deposits is essential for banks to operate one of their core lines of business: furnishing payment services to households and firms. Because the Federal Reserve does not pay interest on such deposits used to satisfy statutory reserve requirements, banks seek to minimize their inventory of such deposits. In 1994, the banking industry introduced a new inventory management tool for such deposits, the retail deposit sweep program, which avoids the statutory requirement by reclassifying transaction deposits as savings deposits. This is an interesting inventory problem for fungible items, where the conversion process is reversible. We examine two methods for operating such sweeps programs within the limits of Federal Reserve regulations, and we develop a stochastic dynamic programming model to implement one such method, the threshold method.     

基于商机存在概率估测的赊销决策模型研究

借鉴SMC模型思想,使用威布尔分布函数有效地拟合出赊销产品的客户寿命时间变化特点,动态估测出企业商机存在的概率,并运用相关的收益估测方法及决策规则,建立了赊销动态决策模型,估测出不同调研阶段不同商机类型的客户总收益,使企业能够针对不同类型的客户在有限的时间内做出最优的赊销决策。企业商机估测模型有效克服了原SMC模型通过指数函数及伽玛函数拟合客户寿命时间特点时存在的计算复杂程度高、适应性差等缺陷。     

知识作业过程管理方法的探讨

本文基于认知科学的理论和IE的预定时间标准法PTS原理,提出了知识作业过程的"动素"--心智操作(mind operations, MO)解析思路,把知识作业过程分解为MO,并通过案例解析把MO链还原为知识作业过程;进而,构造了MO概念集及其要素之间关系的结构模型假设,对模型假设进行了样本数据的验证性分析,其结果支持知识作业过程可用九要素的MO概念集全模型进行表征,为知识作业过程管理的方法优化和作业测定提出了心智操作分析思路.这同时也蕴涵着对人工智能知识表示方法的探讨.     

基于加权群体AHP的企业资信评价方法

本文研究加权群体AHP方法及其在企件资信评价中的应用问题,建立了反映各专家或决策者优先权及各判断矩阵可信度的两种加权距离法,从主观和客观两方面切实有效地反映了各专家或决策者意见对最终评判结果的影响。企业资信评价是银行信贷风险管理的重要基础工作之一,各企业资信等级的正确评定取决于许多相关因素,需要各方面专家或决策者进行综合评判,合理的评判结果应反映各专家或决策者对各企业及信贷风险状况了解和认识的程度,同时应反映各专家或决策者对各企业评判所给出的判断矩阵的可信度,因此,本文建立以各专家或决策者优先权及各判断矩阵可信度为权系数的加权距离法,较好地解决了该问题。     

Near-Miss Incident Management in the Chemical Process Industry

This article provides a systematic framework for the analysis and improvement of near-miss programs in the chemical process industries. Near-miss programs improve corporate environmental, health, and safety (EHS) performance through the identification and management of near misses. Based on more than 100 interviews at 20 chemical and pharmaceutical facilities, a seven-stage framework has been developed and is presented herein. The framework enables sites to analyze their own near-miss programs, identify weak management links, and implement systemwide improvements.