Labour supply effects of a cash-for-care subsidy

From 1999, all parents in Norway with children aged one to three, who did not attend publicly subsidised daycare, became eligible for a cash-for-care (CFC) subsidy. One effect of the CFC-subsidy was to increase in the relative price of external child care. This article analyses whether the CFC-subsidy has led to a reduction in the labour supply of mothers. A framework for evaluating policy reforms when reforms are equally and nation-wide accessible is put forward. The results show that the CFC-subsidy has reduced womens labour supply. The results are sustained after controlling for contemporaneous macroeconomic shocks, using a triple difference approach.The author thanks Hege Torp, Erling Barth and Harald Dale-Olsen at The Institute for Social Research, as well as participants at the European Society for Population Economics (ESPE) conference in Bilbao in June 2002, participants at the Lunch-seminar at Statistics Norway, and two anonymous referees for valuable comments. The work is financed by the Norwegian Research Council, grant #137230/530. The financial support is gratefully acknowledged.Responsible editor: Deborah Cobb-Clark.     

Women's transitions in the labour market: a competing risks analysis on German panel data

This paper analyses the transitions between the three states of non-employment, part-time and full-time work of a sample of married women living in West Germany. The questions addressed concern the dynamics of women's labour market transitions and the association of the probability of transition with household and individual characteristics. A non-parametric duration analysis shows that women have a similar attachment to full-time and part-time work in terms of survival, and that survival in non-employment is shorter than in the other two states. Estimates of a parametric discrete-time competing risks duration model show that wives of retired husbands go into full-time work, children under 3 years have a disincentive effect on part-time work and that part-time work is a state that German women prefer to stay in and not a first step to full-time employment, whereas foreign women living in West Germany prefer full-time jobs.I thank Rebecca Blank, John F. Ermisch, Siv Gustafsson, John Micklewright, Pravin Trivedi, Jane Waldfogel and two anonymous referees for helpful discussions and comments, and Hans-Peter Blossfeld for providing access to these data through his research project at the European University Institute of Florence. Responsible editors: Siv S. Gustafsson, John F. Ermisch     

Maternal employment in Scandinavia: a comparison of the after-birth employment activity of Norwegian and Swedish women

A striking characteristic of recent Western labour market trends is the rise in employment among mothers of very young children. So far, few studies have analysed the impact of public policies on employment rates of young mothers. In this study we address this issue by comparing two similar countries, Norway and Sweden, which have the same set of policies with slight variations, using data sets with similar designs. We analyse rates of re-entry into paid work after first birth for mothers in 1968–88 by means of hazard regression. One important finding is that the right to paid maternity leave with jobsecurity greatly speeds up the return to work.We want to thank Jan Kowalski for programming assistence and the Swedish Research Council for the Social Sciences and the Swedish Council for Research in the Humanities and Social Sciences for financial support for the Swedish study. We are grateful to John F. Ermisch, Siv Gustafsson, to two anonymous referees and to colleagues at the Demography Unit for valuable comments. Responsible editors. Siv S. Gustafsson, John F. Ermisch.     

Barefoot and in a German kitchen: federal parental leave and benefit policy and the return to work after childbirth in Germany

Since 1979 German federal maternity leave and benefit policy has given women incentives to stay at home and take care of their newborn and youngest children. In 1986 this leave and benefit policy was changed in several ways, turning it into a powerful instrument for delaying mothers' return to work after childbirth. Using a flexible duration dependence estimation technique for proportional hazards due to Prentice and Gloeckler (1978) and applied to grouped durations by Meyer (1987, 1990), we estimate post childbirth return to work hazards for women during the federally protected leave protection period and immediately upon completion of this leave period. During the leave mothers are less likely to return to work the longer is the time left in the leave protection period; however, this result cannot be attributed generally to high levels of maternity benefits. When the leave protection period ends, mothers with strong labor force attachment who are still on leave return to their jobs.The second author gratefully acknowledges financial support by the National German Science Foundation (Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft) (Grant No. Wa 547/2-1). The authors would like to thank Richard Burkhauser, Barbara Butrica, John F. Ermisch, Joachim Frick, Siv Gustafsson, Philip Merrigan, Johannes Schwarze, Eileen Trzcinski, Jan-Dirk Vlasblom, Gert Wagner, Sheng Zhu and two anonymous referees for their help and suggestions. Remaining errors are of course, our own. Responsible editors: Siv S. Gustafsson, John F. Ermisch.     

Sex selection and fertility in a dynamic model of conception and abortion

This paper investigates the effect of prenatal sex selection on fertility through a stochastic dynamic model with uncertainty in conception as well as in gender, where a woman makes decisions on conception and abortion with or without gender detection tests (i.e. sex-selective or sex-unselective abortion). The paper shows that, when the cost of gender detection test falls, the sex ratio at birth rises due to more selective abortions, but fertility can rise or fall with rising sex ratio. Fertility may rise (fall) if there are more (less) women giving up unselective abortions for selective abortions than women giving up childbirths without test for selective abortions. Similarly the paper shows that the sex ratio can rise or fall, when fertility decreases as the cost of children increases. I test these propositions as well as their implications against micro survey data on the pregnancy history of Korean women.Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Who takes care of the children? The quantity-quality model revisited

We study the Becker and Lewis (1973) quantity-quality model of children adding an explicit child care time constraint for parents. Parents can take care of the children themselves or purchase day care. Our results are: (i) If there only is own care, a quantity-quality trade-off, different from that of Becker and Lewis (1973), arises. The income effect on fertility is positive if child quantity is a closer complement than child quality to the consumption of goods. (ii) If, instead, there is a combination of purchased and own care, the effect of income on fertility is ambiguous, even if quantity of children is a normal good in the standard sense. This is the Becker and Lewis (1973) result extended to a situation with a binding child care time constraint. The conclusion is that the Becker and Lewis (1973) result holds as long as at least some child care is purchased. Received: 12 November 1999/Accepted: 1 September 2000     

Children as insurance

This paper presents a dynamic model of fertility decisions in which children serve as an incomplete insurance good. The model incorporates uncertainty about future income and the survival of children as well as a discrete representation of the number of children. It contributes to the understanding of the negative relation between fertility and education, shows why parents may demand children even if the return is negative, and explains why fertility might rise with increasing income when income is low and decrease when income is high. Furthermore, the model can account for the decline in fertility when the risk of infant and child mortality decreases. Finally, the implications for empirical tests of the demand for children are also examined. Received: 8 September 1998/Accepted: 9 June 1999     

Mothers in an insider-outsider economy: the puzzle of Spain

There is growing evidence that social policies towards mothers have important effects on their labour market behaviour. This article argues that these effects are less important in a Male Breadwinner Regime if there is employment insecurity in the household or if women intend to participate in the long-run. I consider the case of Spain, where the workforce has become polarized between insiders and outsiders and where social policies closely resemble the Male Breadwinner Regime. The results show that Spanish mothers fall into two groups: those who do not withdraw from the labor force after childbirth and those who withdraw and do not re-enter after their children arrive at school age. Entry or re-entry appears related to the husband's employment uncertainty. Married women in an insider household are less likely to be mobile than women in an outsider household.This research was initiated with the financial support from the Bank of Spain (Fondo para Estudios sobre el Mercado de Trabajo) and the CIRIT (Generalitat de Catalunya). An earlier version has been published in Spanish in Adam, 1995 a. I benefited from presentations in the session on Women's Labour Force Transitions in the ESPE ninth annual meeting at Lisbon, in the IESA (CSIC, Madrid) seminar, in the session on European Labour Markets in the IEA meeting at Tunis, and in the IGIER seminar. I thank Namkee Ahn, Siv Gustafsson, John Ermisch, Andrea Ichino, Sergi Jiménez, Dennis Snower, Robert Waldmann and an anonymous referee for comments. My very especial thanks go to my thesis supervisor, John Micklewright, to Gosta Esping-Andersen, John Myles and David Soskice. Responsible editors: Siv S. Gustafsson, John F. Ermisch.     

Employment after childbearing and women's subsequent labour force participation: evidence from the British 1958 birth cohort

Data on women from the British 1958 Cohort Study is used as evidence on the determinants of their labour force participation at age 33. A conventional cross-sectional model of full or part-time employment makes use of some longitudinal material not normally included in such models. Whether the woman made the hitherto customary break from. employment at the time of the first maternity is included in recognition that this cohort was among the first generation to be offered Statutory Maternity Leave. Results suggest that the presence of children (still) inhibits full-time employment and raises the probability of part-time employment; that income effects on participation have continued to weaken while wage elasticity for full-time employment is high. Continuity of employment straight after childbearing raises the chances of subsequent full-time employment, but by no means guarantees it. Gains from maternity leave and other family friendly employment policies have been far from uniform.All correspondence to Heather Joshi. Our research was supported by the ESRC Grant R000234600. Helpful comments by John F. Ermisch, Siv Gustafsson and two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged. Responsible editors: Siv S. Gustafsson, John F. Ermisch.     

The pattern of birth spacing during Taiwan's demographic transition

This paper considers the impact of an extended family structure on the fertility behavior of married women in Taiwan. A sequential duration model is applied to identify the differences in fertility behavior during the early and latter stages of a woman's reproductive period. Heterogeneity adjustments which correct the respondent-specific characteristics are also implemented. It is found that living with the husband's parents has an impact on the wife's fertility only at the early stage of her childbearing period, and that the subjective son preferences together with the objective fact of no son in the previous 2 births do force a wife to expedite her third birth. These results are robust across different cohorts during the demographic transition and under different specifications of hazard functions. We thank an anonymous referee for his or her valuable comments and suggestions. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

One or two parents? Half or step siblings? The effect of family structure on young children's achievement

Do children who live with both biological parents fare better than children in other types of family structures? Does the presence of step or half-siblings affect child well-being? This study examines the effect of family structure on young children's achievement addressing two sources of potential bias: (1) misclassification of blended families and (2) the omission of within-family and individual time-invariant unobserved characteristics. The results show that family structure, when defined using traditional classifications, has little effect on young children's achievement test scores. When the definition of family type is expanded, living in a blended family and living in some types of single mother families, appears to have a small, unfavorable relationship with children's achievement.     

Long run opportunity-costs of children according to education of the mother in the Netherlands

Children claim a large part of the parents' potential resources, particularly their time. Direct time costs arise through the time spent out of the labour force while the children are small, indirect costs are the result of lower investment into human capital. It is demonstrated in this paper that the average opportunity costs of children of lower educated mothers can be higher than those of higher educated mothers.The author wishes to thank his colleagues from de Leerstoel Vergelijkende Bevolkings- en Emancipatie-economie, especially Siv Gustafsson, John F. Ermisch and two anonymous referees for their comments and suggestions on earlier drafts of this paper. The author is also thankful for Mr. and Mrs. van Ingen for their advice on improving the English text. Financial support from the FMO is gratefully acknowledged. Responsible editors: Siv S. Gustafsson, John F. Ermisch.     

Time for children: A study of parent's time allocation

The trade-off between parents' time with their own kids and market work, and its dependence on out-of-home day care is analyzed in a simultaneous equation framework. Economic incentives primarily work through decisions about market work, while the direct effects on time with children are weak. The results suggest that a change in the mother's working hours has less influence on the parents' time with their children than a change in the father's working hours. This would imply that a policy working to increase the time with people's own children should primarily influence the father's work hours. We also find that parents prefer joint activities with their children, and that out-of-home child care is not chosen as a substitute for own time with children. Received: 1 February 2000/Accepted: 22 May 2002 All correspondence to Daniel Hallberg. Helpful comments and suggestions from Henry Ohlsson and anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged. We also appreciate comments from Martin Browning and seminar participants at Uppsala and Ume? universities. Financial support from the Swedish Council for Social Research (SFR) is gratefully acknowledged. Responsible editor: John F. Ermisch.     

Did the association between fertility and female employment within OECD countries really change its sign?

Recent literature finds that in OECD countries the cross-country correlation between the total fertility rate and the female labor force participation rate, which until the beginning of the 1980s had a negative value, has since acquired a positive value. This result is (explicitly or implicitly) often interpreted as evidence for a changing sign in the time-series association between fertility and female employment within OECD countries. This paper shows that the time-series association between fertility and female employment does not demonstrate a change in sign. Instead, the reversal in the sign of the cross-country correlation is most likely due to a combination of two elements: First, the presence of unmeasured country-specific factors and, second, country-heterogeneity in the magnitude of the negative time-series association between fertility and female employment. However, the paper does find evidence for a reduction in the negative time-series association between fertility and female employment after about 1985.I benefited from stimulating discussions with Arnstein Aassve, Pau Baizan, Francesco Billari, Henriette Engelhardt, Hans-Peter Kohler and Alexia Prskawetz and a seminar in Rostock. Further, I am grateful to two anonymous referees for very useful suggestions that improved essentially the content of the paper. In addition, I thank Susan Masur, Susann Backer, and Elizabeth Zach for language editing. The views expressed in this paper are the authors own views and do not necessarily represent those of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

The allocation and value of time assigned to housework and child-care: An analysis for Switzerland

In this paper, data from the 1997 Swiss Labour Force Survey are used to analyse the allocation and value of time assigned to housework and child-care. It is shown that men's allocation of time to housework and child-care is largely invariant to changes in socio-economic factors. Women's allocation of time to housework and child-care, on the other hand, is shown to depend on several social, economic, and demographic factors. The value of time assigned to housework and child-care is calculated with two market replacement cost methods and three opportunity cost methods. The results show that the value of time assigned to housework and child-care ranges from 27% to 39% and from 5% to 8% of GDP (in 1997), respectively. The value of time assigned to housework and child-care is also calculated for different household structures. Received: 15 April 1999/Accepted: 5 May 2000     

The empowerment of women,fertility, and child mortality: Towards a theoretical analysis

This paper examines one avenue through which female autonomy impinges on fertility and child mortality in developing countries. A simple model is set out in which couples are motivated to have children for old age security purposes. The decisions of a couple regarding fertility and allocation of resources for the healthcare of their children are made within a bargaining framework. An increase in female autonomy translating into an increase in the relative bargaining power or the threat point utility of mothers is shown to reduce fertility and also to reduce child mortality rates. Paradoxically, the increase in female autonomy within a household may increase the disadvantage suffered by female children in that household with respect to survival. Received: 4 August 1999/Accepted: 7 September 2000     

Estimating intrahousehold allocation in a collective model with household production

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the intra-family distribution of income and the individual demand for leisure and household production from Swedish cross-sectional household data. As a basis for the analysis, we use a collective model where each individual is characterized by his or her own utility function and divides total time between leisure, household production and market work. For the purpose of comparison, we also estimate a version that is consistent with a more traditional model of labor supply, the unitary model. Received: 14 April 2000/Accepted: 12 January 2001     

Child schooling in Peru: Evidence from a sequential analysis of school progression

Primary enrolment rates are very high in Peru, but so are the failure and drop-out rates. Thus an understanding of the nature of child schooling should consider school progression from primary to secondary and higher levels, taking account of the conditional sequence with the previous level and self-selection into the next higher level of schooling. Using a unique correlated sequential probit model with unobserved heterogeneity the present paper does so and obtains richer results, argued to be better than the standard static estimates. It is shown that the same set of individual/parental/household characteristics may affect different levels of schooling differently.The author is much grateful to the Managing Editor and also the Journal referees for their helpful and constructive comments. She also wishes to thank Cardiff Business School for the research grant and Gerry Makepeace for comments on an earlier draft of the paper. The usual disclaimer applies. Responsible editor: Junsen Zhang.     

Effect of childbearing on Filipino women's work hours and earnings

The effects of childbearing and work sector on women's hours and earnings in the 8 years following an index pregnancy were examined in a cohort of more than 2,000 women in the Cebu Longitudinal Health and Nutrition Survey. Change in cash earnings and hours worked were each modeled jointly with sector of labor force participation using an estimation strategy that deals with endogeneity of childbearing decisions and selectivity into sector of work. Two or more additional children born in the 8 year interval significantly reduced women's earnings, while having an additional child under 2 years of age in 1991 reduced hours worked. Received: 16 July 1998/Accepted: 22 March 2001 All correspondence to Linda Adair. The authors wish to thank Family Health International and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) for their generous support. This publication was funded by USAID under Cooperative Agreement USAID/CCP-3060-A-00-3021-00 to Family Health International (FHI). David Guilkey's participation in this paper was also supported by the MEASURE Evaluation Project also with support from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under Contract Number HRN-A-00-97-00018-00. The conclusions expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the policies of FHI or USAID. Helpful comments by two anonymous referees are gratefully acknowledged. Responsible editor: T. Paul Schultz.     

Employment and child-care choices of single-parent families in Canada and the United States

This paper examines employment and child-care choices of single-parent families with young children in the United States and Canada, using a pooled data set based on recent national surveys in each country. We find that the employment and child-care choices of Canadian families are similar to those of U.S. families. Estimates of a model of employment and child-care choices indicate significant effects of child-care subsidies, child-care prices, and wage rates on employment and child-care choices. Received: 1 February 2000/Accepted: 15 January 2001