Minority status and family size: A comparison of explanations

Summary In this study, the family sizes of Chinese, Japanese and Filipino Americans are compared with those of whites, using data from the 1970 public use samples for California and Hawaii. The two hypotheses derived from the 'minority status' hypothesis are tested; the latter states that minorities experience tensions and anxiety which lead to lower fertility compared with native whites of Anglo-Saxon ancestry under certain conditions. We also examine the effect of assimilation in terms of variables known to affect fertility, and control for several age and acculturation variables. Analysis, based on a regression decomposition model, gives some support to the argument that the family size of minority groups differs from that of native whites because of incomplete assimilation and because independent variables affect fertility differently. However, since the independent effect of minority status per se is generally to raise fertility for Japanese and Chinese Americans, and lower it for Filipinos, we reject this version of the minority status hypothesis. Our general conclusion is that family size differentials in a pluralistic society may be part of a persisting pattern of sub-cultural differentiation, and do not necessarily reflect any 'tensions and anxiety' of minority status.     

On the Sunny Side of Life: Sunshine Effects on Life Satisfaction

This paper seeks to analyze the influence of the weather on a person’s self-reported life satisfaction. On a theoretical level, it is claimed that ‘nice’ weather can improve the affective well-being of a person. Given this, it is argued that affects can, in turn, have an impact on that person’s general assessment of his or her life. In particular, it is expected that people would report a higher life satisfaction on days with unambiguously ‘nice’ weather. Data from three German large-scale surveys are used to test empirically to what extent self-reported life satisfaction is determined by the weather. All in all, the results are mostly consistent with the initial hypothesis. In all three samples those respondents surveyed on days with exceptionally sunny weather reported a higher life satisfaction compared to respondents interviewed on days with ‘ordinary’ weather. In two out of three samples, this difference was statistically significant. Hence, the supposed sunshine effect on peoples’ life satisfaction does indeed exist. Implications of these findings are discussed in a conclusion.     

老龄化对储蓄和社会养老保障的影响研究

本文从一个两期的世代交叠模型入手,分析了人口老龄化对储蓄和社会养老保障支出的影响。在此基础上运用动态GMM模型对我国2000～2008年地区面板数据进行实证分析。研究结果表明:第一,人均居民储蓄滞后项对基期储蓄的影响作用较大且高度显著;当期老年人口抚养比对人均居民储蓄的影响为负,上期老年人口抚养比对居民储蓄并没有显著影响。第二,人均养老保障支出滞后项对当期人均养老保障支出影响作用较大且高度显著;当期老年人口抚养比对人均养老保障支出有促进作用,而上期老年人口抚养比抑制了人均养老保障支出的增加。     

Minority status and family size: A comparison of explanations

In this study, the family sizes of Chinese, Japanese and Filipino Americans are compared with those of whites, using data from the 1970 public use samples for California and Hawaii. The two hypotheses derived from the ‘minority status’ hypothesis are tested; the latter states that minorities experience tensions and anxiety which lead to lower fertility compared with native whites of Anglo-Saxon ancestry under certain conditions. We also examine the effect of assimilation in terms of variables known to affect fertility, and control for several age and acculturation variables.

Analysis, based on a regression decomposition model, gives some support to the argument that the family size of minority groups differs from that of native whites because of incomplete assimilation and because independent variables affect fertility differently. However, since the independent effect of minority status per se is generally to raise fertility for Japanese and Chinese Americans, and lower it for Filipinos, we reject this version of the minority status hypothesis. Our general conclusion is that family size differentials in a pluralistic society may be part of a persisting pattern of sub-cultural differentiation, and do not necessarily reflect any ‘tensions and anxiety’ of minority status.     

Life Expectancy during the Great Depression in Eleven European Countries

The recent global economic recession has renewed interest in knowing whether a declining economy affects population health. Understanding the extreme case of the Great Depression may inform the current debate as well as theory regarding biological and behavioral adaptations to unwanted economic change. We test the hypothesis, recently suggested in the literature, that period life expectancy at birth improved during the Great Depression. We applied time‐series methods to annual period life expectancy data of the civilian population from eleven European countries. Methods control for trends and other forms of autocorrelation in life expectancy that could induce spurious associations. We cannot reject the null hypothesis that period life expectancy at birth during the Great Depression remained within the interval forecasted from historical values. Additional analyses using an automated, rule‐based methodology also cannot reject the null hypothesis. During the most severe phase of the Great Depression, period life expectancy in eleven European countries generally did not rise above expected levels.     

新疆生产建设兵团团场老年人口分布研究

基于2010年第六次人口普查数据,研究了新疆生产建设兵团（简称兵团）十三个师所属团场65岁及以上老年人口的年龄分布、性别分布和地域分布。兵团团场2010年老年人口总数为18.3万人,占团场总人口的10.4%,性别比为113.3,年龄中位数为72.1岁。兵团团场的人口年龄结构属于老年型,老年人口比重、老少比和老年抚养比的空间分布不均衡,北疆团场比南疆和东疆团场高。虽然单位土地面积上老年人口的分布不均衡,但是,单位耕地面积上老年人口的分布是均衡的。兵团团场老年人口密度为2.7人/平方公里（土地面积）和17.6人/平方公里（耕地面积）。人口老龄化对北疆团场经济社会发展和养老保障的压力将不断增大,对兵团承担屯垦戍边及保障新疆长治久安任务提出了新的挑战。     

中国农村老年人养老规划的现状及影响因素研究

制定养老规划是农村老年人积极应对养老风险的重要举措。利用中国老年社会追踪调查2018年数据,文章分析了农村老年人的养老规划现状及其影响因素,发现约34.6%的农村老年人实际有养老规划,约13.8%的老年人误判了自身的养老规划状况;现金储蓄是农村老年人的主要规划方式。相比农村居住的非留守老年人,农村留守老年人和进城农村老年人有养老规划的比例更高。农村老年人的经济收入对其是否做养老规划既存在显性影响,也具有通过养老观念的中介作用而表现出的显著的隐含影响。在养老责任观念的中介作用下,认同由政府和社会承担养老责任的养老观念会促使有劳动收入、子女给予经济支持和有新型农村养老保险的老年人做养老规划的可能性下降。     

Household commodity demand and demographics in the Netherlands: a microeconometric analysis

We investigate the effects of demographics, household expenditure and female employment on the allocation of household expenditure to consumer goods. For this purpose we estimate an Almost Ideal Demand System based on Dutch micro data. We find that interactions between household expenditure and demographics are of significant importance in explaining the allocation to consumer goods. As a consequence, consumer goods such as housing and clothing change with demographic characteristics from luxuries to necessities. Furthermore, this implies that budget and price-elasticities cannot be consistently estimated from aggregated data and that equivalence scales are not identified from budget survey data alone. We reject weak separability of consumer goods from female employment. A couple with an employed spouse has a smaller budget share for housing and personal care and a larger budget share for education, recreation and transport and clothing compared to a couple with a non-employed spouse. Received: 12 September 1997/Accepted: 27 February 1998     

健康冲击、基本医疗保险与老年人“退而不休”

在我国进入深度老龄化、劳动力供给不足的背景下,探究健康以及基本医疗保险对老年人退而不休的影响对未来合理有效开发老年人力资源具有重要意义。本文使用四期CHARLS数据将健康冲击、医疗保险与老年人退而不休放在一个统一的分析框架中,分别考察了健康冲击、新农合以及城镇职工医疗保险对老年人退而不休的影响,并进一步探究了医疗保险对老年人退而不休影响的健康异质性。结果表明:健康冲击对老年人退而不休意愿和劳动时间均有显著正向促进效应,且对劳动时间的影响有明显城乡差异,对农村地区影响更大。新农合会明显激励农村老年人选择退而不休,发生比率提高为未参合时的3.59倍,但会降低劳动时间,全年平均减少了21.21天;而城镇职工医疗保险对老年人退而不休意愿没有显著影响,但会增加劳动时间,全年平均增加了13.92天,且对劳动时间供给更多的个体,其激励效应逐渐减弱。同时,医疗保险对老年人退而不休的影响还存在性别差异,其中新农合对女性退而不休意愿影响更大,但对劳动时间并没有显著的性别差异;而职工医疗保险对女性退而不休意愿、对男性劳动时间影响更大。此外,本文还发现医疗保险对老年人退而不休的影响存在健康异质性,对健康变差的群体影响更大。     

The Relevance of the 'Easterlin hypothesis' and the 'new home economics' to fertility movements in Great Britain

Summary The hypothesis that a family's economic status relative to its aspirations (relative economic status) is an important determinant of its fertility behaviour has been developed and applied to the explanation of swings in American fertility by R. A. Easterlin. However, a recent application by Butz and Ward of a model derived from the 'new home economics' (pioneered by Becker and Mincer) strongly suggests that relative economic status is not the dominant factor in explaining fertility movements in the U.S.A. Rather, both current men's and women's wages operate independently in explaining the movement in fertility, and in particular the decline in fertility is attributed to rising women's wages. In this paper we explore the relevance of both the Easterlin hypothesis and the hypotheses derived from the 'new home economics' to the 1955-75 fertility swing in Great Britain. We find that we must reject the Easterlin hypothesis on the basis of the measures of relative economic status suggested by Easterlin and Wachter. A variant of the Easterlin hypothesis suggested by Oppenheimer does receive some support from the available evidence, and the evidence provides strong support for the model of fertility behaviour derived from the 'new home economics', which emphasizes the distinction between the effects of changes in men's and women's real wages on fertility decisions. The cause of the fertility decline is attributed to rising women's wages and employment opportunities through their direct effect on the opportunity cost of time and children among working wives and through their effect on the labour force participation of married women of childbearing age. The test of this model and the estimates of its parameters are not definitive, however, because of deficiencies in the data and problems of statistical estimation. We nevertheless conclude that both this model and the Oppenheimer variant of the Easterlin hypothesis, as well as other elements of a more comprehensive economic theory of fertility, point to a continuation of low fertility and the possibility of a secular decline with fertility approaching some lower asymptote.     

新农保对中国农村老年人劳动时间供给的影响

随着农村青壮年劳动力大规模转移,我国农村劳动力老龄化趋势不断加剧,我国农业生产可持续发展面临挑战,在这一背景下对农村老年人劳动时间供给状况进行研究显得十分必要。从2009年开始我国实施了“新农保”政策,而这一政策的实施是否会对老年人农业劳动时间供给产生影响,如有则影响程度又如何呢？基于此本文运用倾向值匹配方法以控制老年人参与“新农保”的自选择所引起的内生性问题,利用农业部全国抽样调查数据分析了我国现行的“新农保”制度对于农村老年人劳动时间供给的影响。研究表明：农村老年人参与“新农保”后不会完全停止劳动供给,但会显著减少劳动时间;参与“新农保”的老年人劳动时间减少的幅度有限,老年人总劳动时间、农业劳动时间、外出从事非农劳动时间仅分别减少了7.06天、5.58天、3.53天;在相同的养老保障水平下老年人劳动时间减少程度在地区间呈现出“西部＞中部＞东部”的特点。     

Social security, economic growth, and the rise in elderly widows’ independence in the twentieth century

The percentage of elderly widows living alone rose from 18% in 1940 to 62% in 1990, while the percentage living with adult children declined from 59% to 20%. This study finds that income growth, particularly increased Social Security benefits, was the single most important determinant of living arrangements, accounting for nearly one-half of the increase in independent living. Unlike researchers in earlier studies, we find no evidence that the effect of income become stronger over the period. Changes in age, race, immigrant status, schooling, and completed fertility explain a relatively small share of the changes in living arrangements.     

Self-enforcing family rules,marriage and the (non)neutrality of public intervention

We demonstrate that the notion of a family ‘constitution’ (self-enforcing, renegotiation-proof norm) requiring adults to provide attention for their elderly parents carries over from a world where identical individuals reproduce asexually, to one where individuals differentiated by sex and preferences marry, have children and bargain over the allocation of domestic resources. In this heterogenous world, couples are sorted by their preferences. If a couple’s common preferences satisfy a certain condition, the couple have an interest in instilling those preferences into their children. Policies are generally nonneutral. In particular, wage redistribution may raise, and compulsory education will reduce, the share of the adult population that is governed by family constitutions, and thus the share of the elderly population who receive attention from their children.     

Sex role effects on female response to illness

This study of sex differentials in health behavior and health service choice among the Korean rural population is based on 1421 individuals aged 14 and over who received medical care at hospitals or clinics, pharmacies, a government health center, or through Chinese medical practices. Logistic regression is used to explore the relationship between the dichotomous variable, the log of the odds of the probability of using formal health care services, and the independent variables (sex, age, education, marital status, perceived health status, perceived medical care need, illness days in bed, limited activity days, total sick days, date of illness). A profile of rural Korea shows for all ages fewer adult females than males, but more females 65 years who have been previously married, which suggests higher male mortality rates in the middle ages. Health service usage is higher among the elderly. Higher level of education is associated with greater use of formal medical service. The results of binomial and multinomial analysis indicate that women receive less medical care from the formal system in spite of complaints and restricted activity, and least of all from health centers. It is suggested that personnel at health centers may reduce the desire for care because of incompatible social backgrounds (young single males who are inexperienced, city bred, and completing required service). A woman must carefully choose from the formal system and may more easily use the informal system of pharmacies and Chinese medicine practice. The responses to self rated health showed many differences; males report better health than females and older people consider themselves more unhealthy than young or adult groups. Those with lower educational attainment also consider themselves unhealthy, and indicate greater need for health services. Females and older age groups also stated their need for professional medical care for an illness within 15 days prior to the survey. The mean number of bed days followed a similar pattern as the perceived need and self rated health. However, women had a lower volume of bed days than men in contrast to typical Western trends. Females reported more restricted days of activity. The old age group had the same restricted days but more bed days than the adult group. Reported chronic diseases were greater for lower socioeconomic groups.     

农村家庭子女养老行为的示范作用研究

西安交通大学人口与发展研究所于2001年5月在安徽省巢湖市农村地区进行了"安徽老年人生活状况"抽样问卷调查,并在2003年11月、2006年12月、2009年6月进行了三次跟踪调查。利用调查数据,对孝文化观念下的农村家庭中子女养老行为之间的相互影响进行实证研究。研究发现,兄弟姐妹间的养老行为存在示范作用,并对老年人获得子女供养的状况有重要影响。结果表明,无论经济支持还是生活照料,兄弟姐妹分担程度越高,子女个体越有可能提高对老年父母的支持;而子女的分担程度越高,老年父母获得的经济支持和生活照料越多。     

Elderly poverty alleviation through living with family

We estimate here the extent of United States elderly poverty alleviation through living with family. These estimates are motivated by public-policy concern about the well-being of the elderly, and by the relevance of the process for fertility under the old-age-security hypothesis. An inter-temporal poverty-measurement model is estimated with 1984 Survey of Income and Program Participation income and wealth data. Without extended-family co-residence, and assuming no bequests, poverty rates would increase 42% over observed rates. Female elderly account for almost all the alleviated poverty. As a population, their impoverishment with age is effectively prevented by co-residence. Proportionately more black than white elderly are beneficiaries of poverty alleviation through living with family, but white elderly are more likely to be beneficiaries if at risk.Support was provided by grants to Alden Speare from the American Association of Retired Persons Andrus Foundation and the University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty Small Grants program, and to Michael Rendall from United States Department of Agriculture Hatch Grant no. 322-7414. Helpful comments were received in response to presentations at the Annual Meeting of the European Society for Population Economics at Budapest in June 1993, at the Cornell University Life Course Institute in October 1993, and at the Syracuse University NIA Leadership Workshop on Cross-National Issues in Aging in January 1994. Work done by Roger Avery and Rebecca Clark in early phases of data preparation, and comments on earlier versions by Noel Gaston, Meg Meloy, and Sharon Sassler, are especially appreciated. Valuable assistance with SIPP Access was received from Alice Robin and Martin David at the University of Wisconsin, Madison.     

Serious psychological distress,sex, and falls among the elderly

Serious psychological distress and falls are two major public health problems among the elderly. This study aims to test the hypothesis that although serious psychological distress can increase the risks of falls among the elderly, it tends to affect elderly women more than elderly men. Data of this study are from the 2011 California Health Survey Interviews (CHIS). We extracted a sample of 13,153 respondents aged 65 and older for this study, including 8,087 females and 5,066 males. We tested both unadjusted and adjusted interaction effects using bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Elderly women with serious psychological distress had the greatest likelihood of falls as compared to men with serious psychological distress and men and women without serious psychological distress. With respect to the covariates, limitations of physical activity and poor self-rated health status, Asian race, and older age were more likely to be associated with falls. This study provides further information on sex disparities of falls among the elderly such that serious psychological distress has a greater impact on falls for elderly women than elderly men. Thus, the findings of our studies suggest that mental health services and intervention can be useful to prevent falls for elderly women.     

Elderly migration: For sun and money

Discussions about elderly migration and its implications for growth planning tend to neglect the role of economic forces. Our view is that cost-of-living variations among states give elderly households on fixed incomes an incentive to move that closely resembles the effects of wage opportunities on workers who migrate. To test this view, we employ a state-by-state index of cost of living for a retired couple to explore its impact on migration choices of the elderly. The effects of cost of living on migration are investigated in terms of the probability that an elderly person will move out-of-state during a five-year period and the probability that a given state will be chosen as destination once a decision has been made to migrate. The influences of cost of living at both origin and destination are strongly confirmed.     

Elderly migration: For sun and money

Discussions about elderly migration and its implications for growth planning tend to neglect the role of economic forces. Our view is that cost-of-living variations among states give elderly households on fixed incomes an incentive to move that closely resembles the effects of wage opportunities on workers who migrate. To test this view, we employ a state-by-state index of cost of living for a retired couple to explore its impact on migration choices of the elderly. The effects of cost of living on migration are investigated in terms of the probability that an elderly person will move out-of-state during a five-year period and the probability that a given state will be chosen as destination once a decision has been made to migrate. The influences of cost of living at both origin and destination are strongly confirmed.