养老保险基金模式选择的人口学分析

从人口学角度看,养老保险基金的两种基本模式——现收现付制和基金制分别表现为时期平衡和队列平衡。退休者的生活消费均来源于在职职工创造的财富,因此,不仅现收现付制,而且基金制养老保险也体现了代际之间的再分配关系。人口老龄化、劳动力人口数量、人口素质和人口迁移是影响养老保险基金模式选择的主要人口因素。我们要综合考虑人口因素和经济因素来选择我国的养老保险基金模式。     

论我国养老保险的筹资模式

如何选择最佳的筹资方式是依托社会保障体系化解我国人口老龄化压力的关键所在。作为最基本的养老金筹资方式,现收现付制与个人帐户制的特征与对经济的影响不同,但并不能简单地由此分出两者谁优谁劣,不是由现收现付制完全转为个人帐户制所有问题就会迎刃而解。未来我国养老保险筹资方式的上佳选择是建立多支柱、多层次的社会保障体系。在此前提下,现收现付制与个人帐户制相互协调,共同存在较之相互替代更有助于缓解不可避免的养老金支付困难。     

社区发展与生育行为的线性结构模型

本文基于２０世纪下半叶至２１世纪人口年龄结构发展现状及变化趋势，分别讨论年轻型人口结构、人口老龄化过程以及静态老龄社会人口结构之下的老年社会保障筹资模式。笔者认为现收现付制是年轻型人口结构的产物，目前受到人口老龄化的冲击，但在将来可能出现的静态老龄社会中，现收现付制与积累制相比，不存在明显的缺点，因此不宜轻易加以否定。中国目前采取的部分积累制只是一种过渡形态，最终可能向现收现付制的目标模式演进。     

人口年龄结构与老年社会保障筹资模式

本文基于２０世纪下半叶至２１世纪人口年龄结构发展现状及变化趋势，分别讨论年轻型人口结构、人口老龄化过程以及静态老龄社会人口结构之下的老年社会保障筹资模式。笔者认为现收现付制是年轻型人口结构的产物，目前受到人口老龄化的冲击，但在将来可能出现的静态老龄社会中，现收现付制与积累制相比，不存在明显的缺点，因此不宜轻易加以否定。中国目前采取的部分积累制只是一种过渡形态，最终可能向现收现付制的目标模式演进。     

双重危机下的俄罗斯养老保险制度改革

俄罗斯的人口与经济状况已不适应现收现付养老保险制度的要求 ,为此俄罗斯政府开始对养老保险制度进行改革 ,改革的基本趋势是由单一的现收现付制转变为建立三支柱的养老保险制度     

对社会保障私有化认识存在的几个误区

20世纪80年代,智利对养老金制度实行了个人缴费、个人所有、完全积累、私人机构运营的改革,掀起了全球范围的社会保障改革浪潮,同时也引发了对社会保障私有化的讨论。文章认为,在改革过程中,对私有化还存在一些不正确的认识,主要表现为:(1)认为现收现付制度已经破产;(2)认为基金积累制下的缴费率要低于现收现付制;(3)认为基金积累比现收现付更能提高国民储蓄、促进经济增长;(4)认为基金积累比现收现付收益高、风险低;(5)认为基金积累制比现收现付制度更公平。     

从“性别中立”到“性别歧视”——现收现付制与基金制的养老金性别利益差异

随着养老保险筹资模式的转变,两性的养老金性别利益也开始发生变化。从现收现付制到基金制存在一个从"性别中立"到"性别歧视"的变化。于是制度设计中应尽可能将这种不平等减小到最低限度,政府应通过政策调整实现社会公正的最大化,对女性提供合理而有效的保护。     

余命延长条件下养老保险制度选择的劳动力供给质量效用分析

由现收现付制向基金积累制转变的改革潮流是缓解人口老龄化对已有养老保险制度冲击的意愿体现。基金积累制的精算平衡解决了养老保险制度收不抵支的问题,却未能缓解宏观层面的长寿风险和微观层面的制度替代率下降,若考虑养老保险制度对劳动力供给质量的影响,这一变革潮流的合理性就更需斟酌了。本文选用包含人力资本投资决策的世代交替模型和内生经济增长模型,在余命延长条件下分析基金积累制、名义账户制、现收现付制等养老保险制度类型对理性个体人力资本投资决策的影响,进而分析其对单个劳动力素质和整体劳动力供给质量结构的作用。研究结果显示,在人口老龄化背景下,基金积累制和名义账户制可提高技术工人占比,优化劳动力供给质量结构;收入关联的现收现付制不仅有助于提高技术工人占比,还可以进一步提高技术工人的人力资本存量,也就是单个劳动力素质和整体劳动力供给质量结构均得到提高;与此同时,稳态经济增速取决于技术工人占比及其人力资本存量,这显示人口老龄化对经济增长有积极作用,收入关联的现收现付制优于其他养老保险制度,但由于非技术工人的单位养老金缴费更多,它不是精算公平的。研究结论从劳动力供给质量提升、经济增长的视角为养老保险制度结构调整提供新的依据。     

中国养老保险隐性债务显性化研究

养老保险隐性债务是现收现付制养老金制度的固有特征;养老保险隐性债务的显性化问题是源于现收现付制养老保险向基金制的转轨。养老保险制度的转轨成本源于隐性债务,但在量上并不等于隐性债务,只有在制度转轨过程中显性化出来的那部分隐性债务才是转轨成本。中国养老保险制度改革的目标是部分基金制,因而只是部分旧制度下的隐性债务会显性化。隐性债务的显性化是一个复杂的动态变化过程,作者用系统动力学的方法进行模拟测算,得出中国未来各期的政府清偿隐性债务的估测量值,以供决策部门参考。     

欧盟国家养老金的名义帐户制改革评析——从对妇女和低收入者的影响进行分析

由于诸多因素的影响,如:人口老龄化的不断加剧、制度的日渐成熟、迅速增长的养老成本及增强在国际市场上的竞争力的迫切愿望,许多国家日益关注现今由于养老金制度的施行而造成的经济负担,它促使各国政策制定者去探求其它替代性模式。其中最富创见性的模式之一是产生于十年前的名义帐户制。本文旨在描述并探讨这种模式转换对妇女和低收入者的影响。笔者认为:在实行或部分实行名义帐户制的工业化国家里,妇女和低收入者获益会减少。然而,在发展中国家,情况却恰恰相反,名义帐户制取代现收现付制有利于实现高低收入者之间的收入再分配。     

Social Capital and Self Perceived Health Among European Older Adults

There is increasing interest among researchers in the effects of social capital on the health of older adults. One of the key policy question for an ageing population concerns how do we identify the factors that influence health. Very recently, an increasing interest on social capital as a key determinant for health has developed and, surprisingly, not much is known for the European population. This paper analyzes the association between social capital and self-perceived health among older adults in Europe using a mixed effects logistic model. Social capital is considered in its two components—bonding and bridging—in order to understand if the relations inside or outside an individual inner circle have a different association with health. Our results give empirical support to the role of individual social capital in preventing a poor self-perceived health. This means that social capital, especially the bridging component of it, can be one of the key factors of ageing in good health and should be fostered by policy makers in order to give an answer to one of the most compelling challenge of our century: population ageing.     

建设有中国特色的农村社会养老保险制度

本文通过分析中国目前的社会经济状况和人们对农村社会养老保险的认识,得出中国现在还不具备建立农村社会养老保险制度,但根据我国现实情况人口老龄化,家庭赡养方面的诸多问题以及集体经济的衰弱,觉得中国又迫切需要建立社会养老保险制度.针对条件不足和客观需要之间的矛盾,提出建立有中国特色的农村社会养老保险制度,对其应遵循的原则和具体实施中的一些环节发表自己的看法.     

老龄化问题:可持续发展面临的新挑战--基于苏州的个案研究

在21世纪,老龄问题正在日渐凸显出战略性问题的地位。本文以苏州为个案分析了苏州可持续发展面临的新挑战以及解决老龄问题的一些成功探索,并指出从可持续发展高度来定位老龄问题正是苏州宝贵的经验所在。最后的结论是:高扬起贡献——回报的理论和人道主义的旗帜,才是处理好人口老龄化和经济社会可持续发展关系以及改革、发展、稳定三者关系的基本前提。     

Evaluating public policy responses to the economic burden of population ageing with application to Australia

This paper reviews the issues in evaluating public policy interventions that are designed to address the economic burden of population ageing. It then briefly reviews the main public policy options with application to Australia. The economic burden of ageing is defined as the burden on national economic well-being over time and the extent to which this burden is shared between the public and private sectors. A key policy issue is the extent to which the economic burden of ageing should be spread out over present and future generations. This depends on how we value the economic well-being of future generations relative to our own, future projections of economic growth, and the rate at which our subjective sense of well-being improves with our living standards. The paper discusses policies to boost the labour force participation rates of older workers, measures to boost fertility and immigration policy. Also discussed are several policies to shift the burden of ageing from the public to private sectors: the establishment of government financial funds such as the Future Fund, superannuation policy, and health and aged care policy.     

Social security policy with public debt in an aging economy

This paper analyzes a social security policy with public debt in an overlapping generations growth model. In particular, the paper considers a situation in which population aging causes a heavy burden of social security payments where public debt is issued by the government to finance the payment. In the model presented below, an economy with an aging population may achieve two dynamically inefficient equilibria. Under certain conditions, the effects of pension reform and population aging on capital accumulation are entirely different between the two equilibria. Received: 23 July 2001/Accepted: 22 August 2002 I am deeply grateful to an anonymous referee and Professor A. Cigno, the Editor of this journal, for their valuable comments and suggestions. I am also grateful to Kazuyo Tanimoto and Kiheiji Nishida for their research assistance. Any remaining errors are my own. The research reported here was conducted as part of a larger study, the “Project on Intergenerational Equity” at the Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University. Financial support from Kani Hoken Bunka Zaidan is also gratefully acknowledged. Responsible editor: Alessandro Cigno.     

生育性别偏好行为的双向选择——来自陕西省神木县的调查发现

本研究根据神木县经济、社会发展以及政策调整,结合群众的生育观念调查和访谈,以出生人口性别比变动趋势分析生育性别偏好的发展和变化。研究发现,在经济、社会发展以及政策调整进程中,存在生育性别偏好的双向选择：一方面,男孩功能随着经济与社会发展出现减弱,促进了不再追求生育儿子的生育性别偏好正向选择;另一方面,在男孩偏好文化顽固的地区,经济社会发展与政策调整刺激了男孩偏好,加剧了偏好儿子的生育性别偏好逆向选择。研究有利于明确经济、社会以及政策对于生育性别偏好的影响,从而为进一步制定有效的性别失衡治理政策提供依据。     

Innovative strategies for comparative aging research

"After introductory comments on the theme of ?ageing east and west', this paper looks at trends in ageing and responses to ageing over time, with particular reference to European experience. The evidence is reviewed in historical, cultural, religious, political and ?social political' perspective. Attention is drawn to the different patterns of experience and of policy responses characteristic of the different countries and regions within Europe both past and present. The paper concludes with a review of [the] latest trends and prospects in ?community care', which could signal a seeming point of convergence between east and west."     

The old age security hypothesis and optimal population growth

The old age security approach is used to study the relationship between the rate of growth of the population and capital accumulation, within a Samuelson-Diamond overlapping generations framework. It is shown that a decentralized economy will fail, in general, to achieve the Pareto optimal path. However, a pay-as-you-go social security scheme in which the old get transfers which are proportional to the number of their children may restore optimality. On the other hand, child support systems or subsidies to capital can guarantee the optimal capital: labor ratio, but not the optimal population growth rate, while a lump sum social security system can guarantee the optimal population growth rate, but not the optimal capital: labor ratio. Finally, in a monetary economy any policy aimed at correcting the interest rate will restore full optimality.An earlier version of this paper was written during a visit to the University of California, San Diego. The paper benefited from the comments of two referees.     

老年残疾问题及其社会政策思考——基于第二次残疾人抽样调查广东数据分析

人口老龄化快速发展致使老年残疾人口快速增加,改变了残疾人口结构和残疾人社会保障与服务需求,老年残疾问题凸显为重要社会问题。本文利用第二次全国残疾人抽样调查数据。分析了老年残疾人的分布状况、生活状况、残疾状况、康复服务与需求状况,指出残疾老年人经济贫困而社会保障不足。本文从社会保障、社会服务、社会救助等层面提出了完善老年残疾人社会政策的若干建议。     

Einstellungen zur Alterspolitik

Like all modern societies Austria is faced with the process of demographic ageing. This paper concentrates on the question of how current policies in the field of old-age provision are being viewed and how Austrians envisage this issue for the future. Departing from an assessment of population ageing, results will be presented for the following topics:

Attitudes towards the state’s obligations and responsibilities in the field of social policies

Attitudes towards the future design of the pension system

Attitudes towards the transition into retirement and

Preferences concerning the retirement age.

The findings ultimately raise the central question of how, in view of the known economic and demographic conditions, employment and social policy can be better integrated in order to allow older employees to remain part of the workforce for a longer time.