Vacancy Referrals,Job Search,and the Duration of Unemployment: A Randomized Experiment

One goal of the Public Employment Service is to facilitate matching between unemployed job‐seekers and job vacancies; another goal is to monitor job search so as to bring search efforts among the unemployed in line with search requirements. The referral of job‐seekers to vacancies is one instrument used for these purposes. We report results from a randomized Swedish experiment where the outcome of referrals is examined. To what extent do unemployed individuals actually apply for the jobs they are referred to? Does information to job‐seekers about increased monitoring affect the probability of applying and the probability of leaving unemployment? The experiment indicates that a relatively large fraction (one‐third) of the referrals do not result in job applications. Information about intensified monitoring causes an increase in the probability of job application, especially among young people. However, we find no significant impact on the duration of unemployment.     

Heterogeneity and Unemployment Duration

ABSTRACT: Various unemployment duration models are estimated on a large Norwegian dataset covering labour market history 1.1.1989-31.12.1992 for all persons who became unemployed during October 1990. As many unemployed leave the unemployment register without going directly to a job, two alternative definitions of unemployment are used — register unemployment and joblessness. The problem of heterogeneity is addressed both by partitioning the individuals into four categories by previous unemployment history, and by including a random term in the job hazard. Observed as well as unobserved heterogeneity affects the estimates of expected duration to a great extent. When gamma-distributed unobserved heterogeneity is accounted for, the estimates of duration dependence become more positive relative to models where unobserved heterogeneity is ignored. Among persons who are entitled to unemployment benefit, the duration dependence appears to be significantly positive. Alternative specifications of the baseline hazard hardly affect estimates of the effects of the covariates on duration.     

Empirical Analyses of Causal Relationships among Estimated Aggregate Unemployment Duration and Some Properly Chosen Economic Variables

ABSTRACT: The paper is concerned with estimating and analysing the duration of unemployment, that is the length of time people spend on average looking for work. The first issue of the paper is to estimate unemployment duration using data from the survey on labour force done quarterly in Italy by ISTAT, the National Institute of Statistics. The survey data on the duration of unemployment measure duration so far, that is the average length of unemployment spells in progress up to the date of the survey, but they don't provide any information about completed duration of unemployment experimented by people before finding a job or leaving the labour force. In order to estimate the average length of completed unemployment spells, we would have to use data on cohorts of people followed from the time of entry to the time of exit from the labour market. As longitudinal data is not available, the problem becomes rather complex. One way to get round this is to use data on flows to firstly estimate probabilities of leaving unemployment within a particular period. The available data refer to quarterly flows and yearly flows. This makes it possible to estimate short-term unemployment (less than six months) and long-term unemployment (more than twelve months). In another paper we have analysed the nature of the bias introduced by estimating short-term and long-term unemployment in the way we do, and we have come to the conclusion that the bias is approximately a constant, which can be very easily estimated and eliminated. The second issue of the paper is to analyse the estimated short-term and long-term unemployment in relation to cyclical changes in the economic system and with trend changes in the number of unemployed people seeking the first job. In particular, we want to establish the extent of causal relationships between the chosen explanatory variables and the dependent variable. These causal analyses are done separately for the male and female population, and cover the period from the first quarter of 1979 to the last quarter of 1986.     

On the Time Sequence of Unemployment Benefits When Search is Costly

Should we cut the level of unemployment benefits, or reduce their potential duration? The answer depends on the way the unemployed search behaviour and unemployment insurance schemes interact. In this paper, we consider that unemployment insurance funds can be used to improve search. Resulting hazards are increasing over the unemployment spell prior to the exhaustion of benefits, and plummet immediately after it. Turning to policy implications, we assume the public decision–maker aims to minimize the average duration of unemployment under a resource constraint. First, we show the stationary relationship between average unemployment duration and unemployment benefit is hump–shaped. Second, raising benefits over a short duration can reduce average duration. Finally, we demonstrate that most of the time, a declining (yet always positive) benefit scheme is optimal.     

失业保险给付期限差异下的失业持续时间研究

本文对享受不同失业保险给付期限的失业者的失业持续时间差异进行了实证研究。根据工作搜寻理论,应用存活分析方法建立了含有失业保险给付期限因素的失业持续时间模型,并对青岛市失业者登记数据进行了实证研究。结果表明:享受失业保险者的失业持续时间明显长于不享受失业保险者的失业持续时间,在失业保险给付额度相同的条件下,失业保险给付期限与失业持续时间成同向变动关系。     

Determinants of Unemployment Duration for Displaced Workers

ABSTRACT: In this paper we use survival analysis to estimate a reduced form model of the determinants of unemployment and unemployment registration durations. The variables considered in the analysis include personal characteristics, local demand conditions, unemployment income, and the time spent unemployed. The data set was collected both through personal interviews and Employment Service files and includes information on the individual history of a sample of displaced workers who were laid off during 1983 because of plant closings and job cuts in some industrial districts of the metropolitan area of Milan. The parametric models included in the analysis are based on the Weibull, Log-logistic and Log-normal distributions. The results do not show the existence of negative time dependence.     

Unemployment Duration in an Unemployment Blackspot

This paper analyses the factors affecting the duration of an unemployment spell amongst a sample of exclusively long-term unemployed individuals. The results indicate that person-specific unemployment propensities have a significant effect on re-employment probabilities. These effects, however, vary significantly by gender and religion. The results also indicate statistically significant negative ‘duration dependence’ effects. The evidence suggests that employers regard long unemployment durations as a ‘negative signal’ about an applicant's potential productivity. The latter implies that, in terms of government policies aimed at reducing unemployment, the demand-side of the unemployment equation should be given greater emphasis.     

Time Preferences and Job Search: Evidence from France

Abstract. Increasing impatience reduces search efforts of unemployed job seekers and therefore decreases the exit rate from unemployment. Also, impatience reduces reservation wage and increases the exit rate. To determine the overall effect of impatience on the exit rate from unemployment, we distinguish between exponential and hyperbolic time preferences. Search effort dominates the reservation wage and decreases the exit rate from unemployment if individuals have hyperbolic, rather than exponential, preferences. Using the French sample of the European Household Panel Survey, we found that search effort has a strong effect on the duration of unemployment, whereas the reservation wage is not significant. This result shows that the job seekers have hyperbolic preferences. Hyperbolic preferences affect problems associated with job search and policies aimed at reducing unemployment.     

Search and Rest Unemployment

This paper develops a tractable version of the Lucas and Prescott (1974) search model. Each of a continuum of industries produces a heterogeneous good using a production technology that is continually hit by idiosyncratic shocks. In response to adverse shocks, some workers search for new industries while others are rest unemployed, waiting for their industry's condition to improve. We obtain closed‐form expressions for key aggregate variables and use them to evaluate the model's quantitative predictions for unemployment and wages. Both search and rest unemployment are important for understanding the behavior of wages at the industry level.     

A Duration‐sensitive Measure of the Unemployment Rate: Theory and Application

The measurement of unemployment, like that of poverty, involves two distinct steps: identification and aggregation. In this two‐step process, the issue of identifying the unemployed has received considerable attention but, once the unemployed have been identified, the aggregation issue has been addressed by simply ‘counting heads’: the unemployment rate is conventionally defined as the proportion of the labour force that, on a given date, is unemployed. This, in particular, leads to differences between individuals, in their unemployment experiences being ignored when the unemployment rate is being computed. This paper — predicated on the proposition that what matters to a person is not just the fact of unemployment but also its duration — proposes a methodology, derived from the measurement of income inequality, for adjusting unemployment rates so as to make them ‘duration‐sensitive’. In consequence, different values of the ‘duration‐sensitive’ rate will, depending upon the degree of inequality in the distribution of unemployment duration, and upon the extent to which society is averse to such inequality, be associated with the same value of the conventionally defined unemployment rate. A numerical example, based on published data for seven major OECD counties, illustrates the methodology.     

Unemployment Duration of Spouses: Evidence From France

This paper analyses the conditional probability of leaving unemployment of French married individuals from 1991 to 2002. We find that the effect of spousal labor income on unemployment duration is asymmetric for men and women. In particular, the probability of men to find a job is increasing in wife's labor income, while it is decreasing in husband's earnings for women. To adjust for endogenous selection into marriage, we use the quarter of birth as an instrumental variable for the spousal wage. Finally, we show that introducing a breadwinner stigma in a joint job search model generates the positive correlation observed for men in the data.     

Financing Unemployment Benefits: Dismissal versus Employment Taxes

Abstract. This paper investigates the effects of using dismissal taxes to finance unemployment benefits. We compare dismissal and employment taxes in a model with search frictions. Employment taxes give rise to externalities because firms do not take into account the effects their dismissal decisions have on others. These externalities can be tackled by using dismissal taxes to finance unemployment insurance. Taking into account the budget for unemployment insurance, employment taxes can be reduced by more than is necessary to offset the adverse effect of dismissal taxes on the value of the firm. The introduction of dismissal taxes leads to higher job creation and lower unemployment.     

Do Benefit Hikes Damage Job Finding? Evidence from Swedish Unemployment Insurance Reforms

Abstract. In 2001 and 2002, Sweden introduced several unemployment insurance reforms. A major innovation in the first reform was the introduction of a two‐tiered benefit structure for some unemployed individuals. This system involved supplementary compensation during the first 20 weeks of unemployment. The 2002 reform retained the two‐tiered benefit structure but involved also substantial benefit hikes for spells exceeding 20 weeks. This paper examines how these reforms affected transitions from unemployment to employment. We take advantage of the fact that the reforms had quasi‐experimental features where the ‘treatments’ differed considerably among unemployed individuals. We find that the reforms had strikingly different effects on job finding among men and women. The two reforms in conjunction are estimated to have increased the expected duration of unemployment among men but to have decreased the duration of unemployment among women. The overall effect on the duration of unemployment is not statistically different from zero. However, the reforms reduced job finding among men who remained unemployed for more than 20 weeks.     

Effects of Changes in the Unemployment Insurance Eligibility Requirements on Job Duration — Swedish Evidence

This paper investigates the impact of the unemployment insurance (UI) entrance requirement on employment duration among earlier unemployed in Sweden. I exploit changes in the rules taking place in 1994 and 1997 to study behavioural adjustments in the timing of job separation in 1992, 1996, and 1998, respectively. Performing across‐year analyses with years involving different working requirements, I find some evidence of clustering of job exits at the time of UI qualification. By using predicted hazard rates for each week, I calculate an approximate 2.3‐week extension in average employment duration between 1996 and 1998, due to the 5‐week prolonging of the entrance requirement.     

Unemployment Insurance and Underemployment

Should unemployment insurance (UI) systems provide coverage for underemployed job seekers? Based on a statistical analysis of Norwegian unemployment spells, we conclude that the answer to this question is yes. Allowing insured job seekers to retain partial UI benefits during periods of insufficient part‐time work not only reduces UI expenditures during the part‐time work period, but it also unambiguously reduces the time until a regular self‐supporting job is found. Probable explanations are that even small temporary part‐time jobs provide access to useful vacancy information and that such jobs are used by employers as a screening device when hiring from the unemployment pool.     

Uncertainty and Unemployment

This paper studies the impact of time‐varying idiosyncratic risk at the establishment level on unemployment fluctuations over 1972–2009. I build a tractable directed search model with firm dynamics and time‐varying idiosyncratic volatility. The model allows for endogenous separations, entry and exit, and job‐to‐job transitions. I show that the model can replicate salient features of the microeconomic behavior of firms and that the introduction of volatility improves the fit of the model for standard business cycle moments. In a series of counterfactual experiments, I show that time‐varying risk is important to account for the magnitude of fluctuations in aggregate unemployment for past U.S. recessions. Though the model can account for about 40% of the total increase in unemployment for the 2007–2009 recession, uncertainty alone is not sufficient to explain the magnitude and persistence of unemployment during that episode.     

DOES THE ILO DEFINITION CAPTURE ALL UNEMPLOYMENT?

The labour market status of many nonworking persons is at the boundary between unemployment and inactivity. Like the unemployed, they seek and are available for work; unlike them, their last search action was not recent enough to meet the International Labour Office definition of unemployment. In this paper we examine by nonparametric tests how the transition probabilities of these out‐of‐the‐labour‐force job seekers differ from those of the unemployed as well as the other nonparticipants. First, using data from the European Community Household Panel, we show that in most EU countries these job seekers constitute a distinct labour market state. Second, we rely on information available only in the Italian Labour Force Survey to derive a measure of search intensity that we use to break down the out‐of‐the‐labour‐force job seekers. On the basis of their transition probabilities, the most active are indistinguishable from the unemployed. (JEL: J64, J22, R23)     

THE LOT OF THE UNEMPLOYED: A TIME USE PERSPECTIVE

This paper provides new evidence on the time use of employed and unemployed individuals in 14 countries. We devote particular attention to characterizing and modeling job search intensity, measured by the amount of time devoted to searching for a new job. Job search intensity varies considerably across countries, and is higher in countries that have higher wage dispersion. We also examine the relationship between unemployment benefits and job search.     

Firing Costs,Efficiency Wages and Unemployment

This paper uses a Shapiro–Stiglitz efficiency wage model to analyse the effects of firing costs on wages, employment, expected utility and profits. It considers that the probability of a non–shirker being fired depends on an exogenous shock which follows a two–state Markov process. It finds that higher severance payments give rise to lower wages, a lower unemployment rate, an increase in firms’ profits and a decrease in the utility of both workers and the unemployed. These conclusions derive from the finding that a greater probability of keeping one’s job, because of higher firing costs, raises the value of the job and reduces the worker’s incentives to behave opportunistically; this enables firms to reduce wages. Hence, if firms pay efficiency wages, a higher degree of labour market flexibility increases unemployment.     

The Cyclical Volatility of Equilibrium Unemployment and Vacancies: Evidence From Italy

In this study, we explore the fluctuations of unemployment and vacancies in the Italian labour market over the last 20 years. Relying on the available sources of data for unfilled job openings, we find that even in Italy, similarly to other developed countries, there is a clean evidence of the unemployment volatility puzzle. In other words, we empirically assess that the tightness indicator is significantly more volatile than productivity over the whole period. In addition, on the theoretical ground, we show that a matching model with segmented labour markets and on‐the‐job search has the potential to provide a rationale for this pattern.