Random weighting estimation of sampling distributions via importance resampling

This paper presents a new random weighting-based adaptive importance resampling method to estimate the sampling distribution of a statistic. A random weighting-based cross-entropy procedure is developed to iteratively calculate the optimal resampling probability weights by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler distance between the optimal importance resampling distribution and a family of parameterized distributions. Subsequently, the random weighting estimation of the sampling distribution is constructed from the obtained optimal importance resampling distribution. The convergence of the proposed method is rigorously proved. Simulation and experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method can effectively estimate the sampling distribution of a statistic.     

Approaching in Distribution with Applications to Resampling of Stochastic Processes

We introduce the notion of weak approaching and conditionally weak approaching sequences of random processes. This notion generalizes the conventional weak convergence, and has been proposed for real valued random variables in Belyaev (1995). Some of the standard tools for an investigation of the behaviour of weak approaching sequences of random elements in metric spaces are developed. The spaces of smoothed and right-continuous functions with left-hand limits are considered. This technique allows us to use the resampling approach for an evaluation of distributions of continuous functionals on realizations of sum of an increasing number of independent random processes. Two numerical examples are presented for such functionals as supremum and number of level crossings.     

Adaptive resampling algorithms for estimating bootstrap distributions

Based on recent developments in the field of operations research, we propose two adaptive resampling algorithms for estimating bootstrap distributions. One algorithm applies the principle of the recently proposed cross-entropy (CE) method for rare event simulation, and does not require calculation of the resampling probability weights via numerical optimization methods (e.g., Newton's method), whereas the other algorithm can be viewed as a multi-stage extension of the classical two-step variance minimization approach. The two algorithms can be easily used as part of a general algorithm for Monte Carlo calculation of bootstrap confidence intervals and tests, and are especially useful in estimating rare event probabilities. We analyze theoretical properties of both algorithms in an idealized setting and carry out simulation studies to demonstrate their performance. Empirical results on both one-sample and two-sample problems as well as a real survival data set show that the proposed algorithms are not only superior to traditional approaches, but may also provide more than an order of magnitude of computational efficiency gains.     

Random weighting-based quantile estimation via importance resampling

Abstract

This paper presents a new method to estimate the quantiles of generic statistics by combining the concept of random weighting with importance resampling. This method converts the problem of quantile estimation to a dual problem of tail probabilities estimation. Random weighting theories are established to calculate the optimal resampling weights for estimation of tail probabilities via sequential variance minimization. Subsequently, the quantile estimation is constructed by using the obtained optimal resampling weights. Experimental results on real and simulated data sets demonstrate that the proposed random weighting method can effectively estimate the quantiles of generic statistics.     

Exact and resampling probability values for the Piccarreta nominal–ordinal index of association

Exact, resampling, and Pearson type III permutation methods are provided to compute probability values for Piccarreta's nominal–ordinal index of association. The resampling permutation method provides good approximate probability values based on the proportion of resampled test statistic values equal to or greater than the observed test statistic value.     

Bootstrapping Regression Parameters in Multivariate Survival Analysis

Bootstrap methods are proposed for estimating sampling distributions and associated statistics for regression parameters in multivariate survival data. We use an Independence Working Model (IWM) approach, fitting margins independently, to obtain consistent estimates of the parameters in the marginal models. Resampling procedures, however, are applied to an appropriate joint distribution to estimate covariance matrices, make bias corrections, and construct confidence intervals. The proposed methods allow for fixed or random explanatory variables, the latter case using extensions of existing resampling schemes (Loughin,1995), and they permit the possibility of random censoring. An application is shown for the viral positivity time data previously analyzed by Wei, Lin, and Weissfeld (1989). A simulation study of small-sample properties shows that the proposed bootstrap procedures provide substantial improvements in variance estimation over the robust variance estimator commonly used with the IWM. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Weighted quantile regression with missing covariates using empirical likelihood

This paper proposes an empirical likelihood-based weighted (ELW) quantile regression approach for estimating the conditional quantiles when some covariates are missing at random. The proposed ELW estimator is computationally simple and achieves semiparametric efficiency if the probability of missingness is correctly specified. The limiting covariance matrix of the ELW estimator can be estimated by a resampling technique, which does not involve nonparametric density estimation or numerical derivatives. Simulation results show that the ELW method works remarkably well in finite samples. A real data example is used to illustrate the proposed ELW method.     

ON THE ANALYSIS AND APPLICATION OF MEASURES OF LINKAGE DISEQUILIBRIUM

The maximum likelihood, jackknife and bootstrap estimators of linkage disequilibrium, a measure of association in population genetics, are derived and compared. It is found that for point estimation, the resampling methods generate almost identical mean square errors. The maximum likelihood estimator could have bigger or smaller mean square errors depending on the parameters of the underlying population. However the bootstrap confidence interval is superior to the other two as the length of the intervals is shorter or the probability that the 95% confidence intervals include the true parameter is closer to 0.95. Although the standardised measure of linkage disequilibrium has a range from -1 to 1 regardless of marginal frequencies, it is shown that the distribution of this standardised measure is still not allele frequency independent under the multinomial sampling scheme.     

A generalized pivotal quantity approach to portfolio selection

The major problem of mean–variance portfolio optimization is parameter uncertainty. Many methods have been proposed to tackle this problem, including shrinkage methods, resampling techniques, and imposing constraints on the portfolio weights, etc. This paper suggests a new estimation method for mean–variance portfolio weights based on the concept of generalized pivotal quantity (GPQ) in the case when asset returns are multivariate normally distributed and serially independent. Both point and interval estimations of the portfolio weights are considered. Comparing with Markowitz's mean–variance model, resampling and shrinkage methods, we find that the proposed GPQ method typically yields the smallest mean-squared error for the point estimate of the portfolio weights and obtains a satisfactory coverage rate for their simultaneous confidence intervals. Finally, we apply the proposed methodology to address a portfolio rebalancing problem.     

A class of additive transformation models for recurrent gap times

Abstract

The gap time between recurrent events is often of primary interest in many fields such as medical studies, and in this article, we discuss regression analysis of the gap times arising from a general class of additive transformation models. For the problem, we propose two estimation procedures, the modified within-cluster resampling (MWCR) method and the weighted risk-set (WRS) method, and the proposed estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically follow the normal distribution. In particular, the estimators have closed forms and can be easily determined, and the methods have the advantage of leaving the correlation among gap times arbitrary. A simulation study is conducted for assessing the finite sample performance of the presented methods and suggests that they work well in practical situations. Also the methods are applied to a set of real data from a chronic granulomatous disease (CGD) clinical trial.     

A Weighted Linear Estimator of Multivariate ARCH Parameters

A weighted linear estimator (WLE) of the parameters of multivariate ARCH models is proposed. The accuracy of WLE in estimating the parameters of multivariate ARCH models is compared with the widely used quasi-maximum likelihood estimator (QMLE) through simulations. Application to real data sets are also presented and forecasts of variance-covariance matrix and value-at-risk (VaR) are obtained. The weighted resampling methods are used to approximate the sampling distribution of the proposed estimator. Our study indicates that the forecasting performance of WLE is not inferior and one-day ahead risk estimates are also found better than the QMLE.     

Improving sample size recalculation in adaptive clinical trials by resampling

Sample size calculations in clinical trials need to be based on profound parameter assumptions. Wrong parameter choices may lead to too small or too high sample sizes and can have severe ethical and economical consequences. Adaptive group sequential study designs are one solution to deal with planning uncertainties. Here, the sample size can be updated during an ongoing trial based on the observed interim effect. However, the observed interim effect is a random variable and thus does not necessarily correspond to the true effect. One way of dealing with the uncertainty related to this random variable is to include resampling elements in the recalculation strategy. In this paper, we focus on clinical trials with a normally distributed endpoint. We consider resampling of the observed interim test statistic and apply this principle to several established sample size recalculation approaches. The resulting recalculation rules are smoother than the original ones and thus the variability in sample size is lower. In particular, we found that some resampling approaches mimic a group sequential design. In general, incorporating resampling of the interim test statistic in existing sample size recalculation rules results in a substantial performance improvement with respect to a recently published conditional performance score.     

Assessing different uncertainty measures of EBLUP: a resampling-based approach

The empirical best linear unbiased prediction approach is a popular method for the estimation of small area parameters. However, the estimation of reliable mean squared prediction error (MSPE) of the estimated best linear unbiased predictors (EBLUP) is a complicated process. In this paper we study the use of resampling methods for MSPE estimation of the EBLUP. A cross-sectional and time-series stationary small area model is used to provide estimates in small areas. Under this model, a parametric bootstrap procedure and a weighted jackknife method are introduced. A Monte Carlo simulation study is conducted in order to compare the performance of different resampling-based measures of uncertainty of the EBLUP with the analytical approximation. Our empirical results show that the proposed resampling-based approaches performed better than the analytical approximation in several situations, although in some cases they tend to underestimate the true MSPE of the EBLUP in a higher number of small areas.     

Importance resampling for the smoothed bootstrap

Alternative methods of estimating properties of unknown distributions include the bootstrap and the smoothed bootstrap. In the standard bootstrap setting, Johns (1988) introduced an importance resam¬pling procedure that results in more accurate approximation to the bootstrap estimate of a distribution function or a quantile. With a suitable “exponential tilting” similar to that used by Johns, we derived a smoothed version of importance resampling in the framework of the smoothed bootstrap. Smoothed importance resampling procedures were developed for the estimation of distribution functions of the Studentized mean, the Studentized variance, and the correlation coefficient. Implementation of these procedures are presented via simulation results which concentrate on the problem of estimation of distribution functions of the Studentized mean and Studentized variance for different sample sizes and various pre-specified smoothing bandwidths for the normal data; additional simulations were conducted for the estimation of quantiles of the distribution of the Studentized mean under an optimal smoothing bandwidth when the original data were simulated from three different parent populations: lognormal, t(3) and t(10). These results suggest that in cases where it is advantageous to use the smoothed bootstrap rather than the standard bootstrap, the amount of resampling necessary might be substantially reduced by the use of importance resampling methods and the efficiency gains depend on the bandwidth used in the kernel density estimation.     

A simulation study of balanced and antithetic bootstrap resampling methods

An extensive simulation study is conducted to compare the performance between balanced and antithetic resampling for the bootstrap in estimation of bias, variance, and percentiles when the statistic of interest is the median, the square root of the absolute value of the mean, or the median absolute deviations from the median. Simulation results reveal that balanced resampling provide better efficiencies in most cases; however, antithetic resampling is superior in estimating bias of the median. We also investigate the possibility of combining an existing efficient bootstrap computation of Efron (1990) with balanced or antithetic resampling for percentile estimation. Results indicate that the combination method does indeed offer gains in performance though the gains are much more dramatic for the bootstrap t statistic than for any of the three statistics of interest as described above.     

Partial Saddlepoint Approximations for Transformed Means

The full saddlepoint approximation for real valued smooth functions of means requires the existence of the joint cumulant generating function for the entire vector of random variables which are being transformed. We propose a mixed saddlepoint-Edgeworth approximation requiring the existence of a cumulant generating function for only part of the random vector considered, while retaining partially the relative nature of the errors. Tail probability approximations are obtained under conditions which enable the approximations to be used in resampling situations and hence to obtain a result on the relative error of coverage in the case of the bootstrap approximation to the confidence interval for the Studentized mean.     

Resampling Methods for Testing a Semiparametric Random Censorship Model

This paper presents a goodness-of-fit test for a semiparametric random censorship model proposed by Dikta (1998 ). The test statistic is derived from a model-based process which is asymptotically Gaussian. In addition to test consistency, the proposed test can detect local alternatives distinct n ^-1/2 from the null hypothesis. Due to the intractability of the asymptotic null distribution of the test statistic, we turn to two resampling approximations. We first use the well-known bootstrap method to approximate critical values of the test. We then introduce a so-called random symmetrization method for carrying out the test. Both methods perform very well with a sample of moderate size. A simulation study shows that the latter possesses better empirical powers and sizes for small samples.     

A note on Markov chain Monte Carlo sweep strategies

Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) routines have become a fundamental means for generating random variates from distributions otherwise difficult to sample. The Hastings sampler, which includes the Gibbs and Metropolis samplers as special cases, is the most popular MCMC method. A number of implementations are available for running these MCMC routines varying in the order through which the components or blocks of the random vector of interest X are cycled or visited. The two most common implementations are the deterministic sweep strategy, whereby the components or blocks of X are updated successively and in a fixed order, and the random sweep strategy, whereby the coordinates or blocks of X are updated in a randomly determined order. In this article, we present a general representation for MCMC updating schemes showing that the deterministic scan is a special case of the random scan. We also discuss decision criteria for choosing a sweep strategy.     

A nonparametric inverse probability weighted estimation for functional data with missing response data at random

This paper considers the nonparametric inverse probability weighted estimation for functional data with missing response data at random. Under mild conditions, the asymptotic properties of the proposed estimation method are established. Based on the resampling method, the estimation of the asymptotic variance of the proposed estimator is obtained. Finally, the finite sample properties of the proposed estimation method are investigated via Monte Carlo simulation studies. A real data analysis is given to illustrate the use of the proposed method.