女性就业与中国经济周期

构建包含就业性别差异的动态随机一般均衡模型,考察了女性就业对中国经济周期波动产生的影响。参数贝叶斯估计的结果显示,女性劳动力就业弹性、名义工资刚性以及女性劳动力之间的替代弹性均显著大于男性劳动力。这些差异意味着在外生冲击影响宏观经济时,女性劳动力更容易选择进入或退出劳动力市场,进而导致女性就业与男性就业对劳动力市场乃至宏观经济产生的影响存在明显差异。动态分析的结果表明：女性劳动力供给冲击对宏观经济的影响显著大于男性劳动力供给冲击。女性相对劳动生产率上升在引起产出增加的同时对劳动力市场产生“紧缩”效应。女性就业相关因素是驱动中国经济周期波动的重要力量。因此,无论是从宏观经济政策的实施效果还是稳定宏观经济考量,稳定女性就业均是相对较好的政策选择。     

互联网与老年人力资源供给——来自CFPS 2018的经验证据

利用2018年中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)数据考察了互联网对城市老年人力资源供给的影响及其作用机制.研究表明,总体上互联网显著降低了老年劳动力再就业的概率,这一结论在经过稳健性检验、PSM方法再估计以及内生性检验后依然成立.影响渠道分析发现,对于我国城市老年人群体,互联网的"替代效应"大于"信息效应""学习效应",因此降低了老年劳动力再就业的概率.此外,异质性分析表明,互联网对高教育水平、低收入水平和健康状况良好的老年人群体再就业具有显著的促进作用.研究结论对于数字化时代背景下有效促进中国老年人力资源供给、缓解日益严峻的老龄化问题,具有重要的政策启示和现实意义.     

我国工资收入二次扭曲分析

本文通过分析收入差距的变动状况,认为城镇与乡村内部收入差距较合理上升,城乡收入差距却不合理扩大;行业之间收入差距扩大,存在背离劳动的倾向;因而使劳动力价格出现了第二次扭曲。作者认为劳动与人力资本市场产出是决定工资收入最基本的因素,但是改革以来,劳动分配份额的下降,劳动力市场的“三重分割”,行业垄断及行政垄断和劳动力供给等因素的综合作用是工资收入第二次扭曲的原因。政府责任的缺失是更为根本的原因。要矫正扭曲必须通过深化改革,减少垄断,减轻劳动力市场分割程度,建立公平竞争的市场制度环境,同时提高劳动收入在分配中的比重,提升人力资本水平。要达到上述目标,加强政府责任,增强调控成本是调节工资收入分配合理化的根本办法。     

乡村振兴背景下农村文化产品供给的不均衡——基于可行能力的考察

文化是乡村振兴战略的精神内核,文化产品则是文化的具体表现形式,文化产品的供给为乡村振兴战略奠定内在价值基础.政府供给、市场供给和自主供给是当前我国农村文化产品的主要供给方式.但这三种供给方式都难以完全满足农村地区旺盛的文化需求,城乡文化产品的供给存在差距,造成城乡文化产品供给的不均衡状况.被称为"经济学良心"的诺贝尔经济学获得者的阿马蒂亚·森构建了以"可行能力"为核心的理论框架,全面论述发展问题.文章尝试以阿马蒂亚·森的可行能力为视角分析文化产品的供给不均衡,这种不均衡状况不利于农民可行能力的增长和农村的发展,也没有实现对农民的"平等对待".因此,文化产品供给的不均衡状况应该得到重视和改善,政府、市场与社会形成政府主导、市场配置和社会参与的多元协作供给模式,强化农村文化产品的供给能力;构建城乡一体化的供给体系,切实保障城乡居民享有获取文化产品的机会公平;增强多元化文化产品的供给,扩展农民文化产品的选择自由;实现资源下沉,提升农民自身的主体性能力.     

“民工潮”与“民工荒”并存经济学诠释:——基于诺奖“就业搜寻摩擦理论”DMP模型的新进展分析

劳动经济学理论认为,在劳动力市场机制中,通过市场价格可以改变雇佣者和劳动力之间的供求均衡,这就暗含了雇佣者与劳动者之间不存在摩擦性的问题,但诺奖得主用DMP模型做经验分析,证明了两者之间会存在"摩擦成本"的问题,这完全迥异于传统的劳动经济学理论,研究结果认为,在就业匹配的过程中,信息不对称和非及时性问题是导致搜寻摩擦存在的关键。笔者通过对其理论的解读来提出对中国劳动力供给关系的匹配建议。     

"民工荒"的经济学分析

在劳动力资源丰富的中国,按照传统的观点来看,农村中存在着大量的剩余劳动力且供给是无限的,但是在中国从东南沿海开始出现了大面积的"民工荒",这恰恰与其相悖.本文从经济学的角度分析了这一特殊现象,特别是从劳资关系、劳动力资源的市场配置问题角度对其进行审视和分析.     

中国城市次级劳动力市场中民工劳动供给分析——兼论向右下方倾斜的劳动供给曲线

现阶段中国城市次级劳动力市场中存在着这样一种现象：民工的劳动供给与工资正反馈向下直至工资趋于民工的保留工资。考察这种现象,本文认为,主流经济学关于劳动供给的研究忽略了最低必需支出的约束。在考虑到劳动者存在最低必需支出约束的情形下,经典劳动供给曲线将出现一个拐点,延续拐点后的劳动供给曲线向右下方倾斜；同时,就拐点后的这段劳动供给曲线而言,当劳动需求不足时,劳动供求将向右下方发散失衡。文章分析了这一没有引起主流经济学关注的问题,并在此基础上针对中国城市次级劳动力市场中的民工劳动供给现状进行了实证。     

劳动力流动与区域收入差距:基于新古典经济学与新经济地理学范式下的研究

本文探讨了劳动力迁移理论从新古典经济学到新经济地理学的演变过程和演变特征,进而基于新古典经济学与新经济地理学两种理论范式总结了劳动力流动影响区域收入差距的实证经验。对比发现,在这两种范式下,劳动力流动影响区域收入差距的内生作用机理不同,前者强调劳动力通过影响迁出(入)地收入水平、各地生产要素的流动方向以及边际生产力达到缓解区域收入不平等的条件收敛机制,而后者认为,劳动力流动会导致产业集聚的"中心—外围"均衡格局,从而拉大中心与外围区域的收入差距。此外,两种研究范式在劳动力流动对区域收入差距的影响机制方面也各异,对待劳动力与区域之间的内在关系也不同。     

青年弱势群体就业问题研究

我国劳动力市场求职主体已经转变为以青年求职者(15-29岁)为主体,但在青年就业问题上,大学生群体出现找工作难现象是暂时的,与之相对的受教育程度低的青年群体在就业市场上存在就业困难是长期的.文章首先是对中国青年弱势群体数量的估计,了解供给数量和在就业市场的情况;然后是对这部分群体产生就业困难的原因进行讨论;最后是结论和对策分析.     

劳动力流动与工资差异

改革以来,中国的劳动力市场上存在两个突出的现象,一是外来劳动力与本地劳动力存在职业与工资上的差别,二是劳动力流动没有伴随地区间工资差距的缩小。本文对这两个现象做出了统一的解释,其基本逻辑是,劳动力流动促进了工人的重新配对(劳动再分工),进而造成了职业上的差别,并提高了当地工人的工资。其含义是,劳动力流动不仅提高了总体的经济效率,而且可能是一种“帕雷托改进”。经验检验也支持了劳动力流入对工资增长的正效应。     

垄断劳动力市场、最低工资限制和不平等

关于劳动力垄断市场对于加总经济和社会福利水平的影响,现有主流经济学已经有了很规范的结论,即垄断肯定会造成产出水平和社会福利水平的损失。本论文主要分析劳动力市场的垄断对不平等的影响以及最低工资限制对不平等的作用。本论文的分析表明:首先,同完全竞争的劳动力市场相比,完全垄断市场肯定会加剧不平等;其次,即使在完全竞争劳动力市场下,最低工资限制对不平等的影响也是不一定的,它具体取决于均衡状态劳动需求弹性的大小;最后,在劳动力市场存在买方垄断的情况下,高于完全垄断市场工资水平的最低工资限制肯定会使得失业和不平等同时改善。     

劳动剩余条件下的供给不足与工资上涨——基于家庭分工的视角

基于家庭经济学和时间配置理论可以证明,劳动剩余条件下的劳动供给并不是无限的。受制于家庭分工的约束,供给曲线呈特殊的阶梯形态:随着劳动供给的增加,农业劳动力的保留工资不断提高,且幅度不断扩大。劳动供给对工资的反应是非连续的:只有当工资上升到新的保留工资水平时,劳动供给才会增加;否则,工资上涨并不能带来供给增长。与这种特殊的供给形态相对应,工资上涨的主要动力从农业收入转向工业劳动需求。内蒙古、甘肃两省1500个农户的调查数据证明了这一判断。当劳动需求扩张时,由于工资的微调不能带动供给的微调,劳动力市场将长期难以出清。这提醒我们,当前农民工工资上涨与用工短缺并存现象很可能源于劳动剩余条件下的供给不足,并不必然意味着剩余劳动力枯竭,不能作为刘易斯拐点到来的证据。     

工资决定的行为与制度分析

新古典工资理论很难解释现实的工资差异等问题,新制度经济学把劳动合同的不完全性和劳动市场竞争的不完全性引入,从劳动市场不完全性角度来解释了这些问题。后来的行为和实验经济学研究则给出了不同的证据和结论。这些研究发现,劳动市场参与人是满足行为偏好的,具有公平和互惠动机,公平规范等非正式制度在实际的工资决定中起着重要作用。基于新制度经济学的制度设计,必须和基于行为与实验经济学的规范形成互补,才能真正发挥劳动市场的资源配置作用。     

White,black, and Hispanic male youths in central city labor markets

Data from the 1% 1980 Census Public Use Sample are used to estimate the determinants of employment and wage rates for out-of-school male youths residing in central cities. Separate calculations are undertaken for white, black, and Hispanic youths. Independent variables include individual, family background, and local labor market characteristics. Three basic findings emerge. First, racial inequality persists, with whites showing the best outcomes, Hispanics second, and blacks at the bottom. Second, underlying these unequal outcomes are rather different patterns of effect for personal and family characteristics by race. Note-worthy here is the Hispanic pattern of low reliance on schooling and high reliance on family. Finally, net of these effects, intercity differences are interesting and important. These include negative effects of city size and race composition effects which show white gains where blacks and Hispanics are a larger share of the population.     

Compensating differentials, labor market segmentation, and wage inequality

Two literatures on work and the labor market draw attention to the importance of non-pecuniary job amenities. Social psychological perspectives on work suggest that workers have preferences for a range of job amenities (e.g. Halaby, 2003). The compensating differentials hypothesis predicts that workers navigate tradeoffs among different job amenities such that wage inequality overstates inequality in utility (Smith, 1979). This paper joins these perspectives by constructing a new measure of labor market success that evaluates the degree to which workers’ job amenity preferences and outcomes match. This measure of subjective success is used to predict workers’ job satisfaction and to test the hypothesis that some degree of labor force inequality in wages is due to preference-based tradeoffs among all job amenities. Findings demonstrate that the new measure predicts workers’ job satisfaction and provides evidence for the presence of compensating differentials in the primary and intermediate, but not secondary, labor markets.     

Declining inter-industry wage dispersion in the US

Industrial effects have long been significant factors in wage inequality. Previous research indicates that wage differentials across industries were increasing through the mid 1980s. Using more recent data, however, we find that the level of inter-industry wage dispersion declined by 36% from 1986 to 2002 despite the continued trend towards increasing inequality in the labor force. This decline in inter-industry wage dispersion is evident across gender and educational groups. Using multilevel growth curve models, our multivariate results indicate that the decline is only weakly related to industrial changes in education, occupation or even productivity despite the fact that the latter variable had been a critical factor in the prior period. Indicators of globalization and downsizing also do not appear to explain this decline. For the more recent period, the most important factors associated with the narrowing of inter-industry wage dispersion are reduced unionization rates and the higher proportion of casual workers. We interpret these results as suggesting that firms may now be less economically obliged to pass on a portion of their rents to broad groups of workers and may instead be engaged in more idiosyncratic processes of negotiation with individual workers based on micro-level sources of bargaining power.     

Wage change in the late career: A model for the outcomes of job sequences

This paper elaborates a model for the outcomes of job sequences and illustrates its utility by an empirical analysis of the determinants of wage change for men in their late careers. We argue that job sequences represent the basic components of careers and that a focus on these sequences is useful for explaining the determinants of socioeconomic inequality over the life cycle. Our model permits us to estimate the effects on wage change of a wide array of personal resources and measures of the opportunity structure. We further assess how these types of factors differentially affect wage change for various patterns of labor market behavior and for blacks vs whites. Our empirical analysis of data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Middle-Aged Men suggests the importance of patterns of job sequences for wage change and for the explanation of racial differentials in career advancement.     

邯郸市涉法涉诉信访现状、原因及对策

劳动工资统计事关各级政府制定劳动政策、实行宏观决策和调控等。随着社会经济的不断发展,劳动工资统计工作也在不断地发生着变化。文章针对当前劳动工资统计中存在的问题及对策进行了初步的探讨。     

我国城镇劳动力配置二元结构及其转换

本文提出我国城镇劳动力配置的二元结构表现在就业体制二元性,工资收入调节双轨运行,城乡劳动就业区别和户籍壁垒三大方而.认为其主要原因是国企改革与劳动力退出障碍互为因果,体制内就业者的既得利益刚性,社会保障制度改革滞后和劳动力供求严重失衡.在此基础上对转换二元结构的目标、途径、过程、模式选样作出论证,最后从促进企业家市场和工资市场化,实施再就业工程,完善社会保险制度,缩小劳动力供求差距和改革户籍制度等五方面提出相应对策.     

Globalization, labor market transformation, and metropolitan earnings inequality

Numerous studies have noted the increasing levels of inequality in American society, but relatively few have linked this inequality to the dynamics of the global economy. In this study, we examine the impact of five measures of globalization (global capital, foreign direct investment, exports, foreign born non-citizens, and foreign born citizens) and six measures of labor market transformation (deindustrialization, corporate restructuring, bureaucratic burden, casualization, bad jobs, and multiple job holding) on metropolitan-level earnings inequality of full-time, full-year workers 16 years and older. Our study makes several major contributions to the literature. First, we update and extend the long line of studies on metropolitan earnings inequality. Second, we show that these various dimensions of globalization and labor market transformation exert independent and mainly polarizing effects on the earnings distributions of metropolitan areas, net of controls for labor market structure and sociodemographic variables. Third, we demonstrate the benefits of looking at the causes of inequality in the upper and lower tails of the earnings distribution. Finally, we develop a procedure to estimate counterfactual values of earnings inequality for all major metropolitan areas in the US in 2000. In the process, the paper provides a comprehensive accounting of the impact of globalization and labor market transformation on metropolitan earnings inequality.