Another look at fertility and social mobility

This is a response to Basil Zimmer's contention that the classical hypothesis connecting social mobility with fertility was rejected in the Princeton Fertility Study because of a faulty mode of analysis. Arguing from the findings of a strong association in a sample of Aberdeen women, Zimmer asserts that if social origin and destination were taken into account, the same relationship would have emerged in the U.S. data. The evidence from the Princeton Study is reviewed and new evidence presented which confirms the original findings of no relationship.     

A further note on the relation between economic development and fertility

The relationship between economic development and fertility has been examined by several scholars. In particular Heer, using data from 41 nations (24 developing and 17 developed) tested three hypotheses. His objective was to reconcile the two prevailing views in this context, namely, that economic development on one hand promotes and on the-other inhibits fertility. However, when we reran Heer’s data separately for the two groups of countries in his list, the pattern of relationships between the variables that he used changed significantly. On this basis, we restricted this study to a further examination of his three hypotheses using data from developing nations only but for two points in time. The evidence from this study seems to support two of the hypotheses in Heer’s study. In other words, whether the analysis of this relationship is restricted to developing nations or includes both developed and developing nations, it remains true that increased economic development implies a decreased illiteracy and a decreased IMR; a decreased illiteracy and IMR are optimal conditions of low fertility. Nonetheless, the data examined here do not seem to resolve the question of whether increased economic development implies a decreased fertility. Accordingly, continued testing of the hypothesis at further points in time with more accurate data is in order.     

A second look at natural family planning

There is renewed interest in natural family planning (NFP) as the Philippine Population Program enters the 1980s. Much of this interest is due to the realization that, properly practiced, NFP can be a highly effective means of birth spacing. In 1978 the Special Committee to Review the Philippine Population Program recommended that more efforts be made to promote NFP. The different methods of NFP are reviewed. Sex without intercourse, coitus interruptus, and prolonged nursing are not officially recognized as NFP methods by the Program. The rhythm method was first described independently by Drs. Hermann Knaus of Austria and Kyusaku Ogino of Japan in the 1930s. Ogino's method of calculating a woman's fertile period is based on the lengths of the last 12 menstrual cycles which she recorded on a calendar. The advantages of rhythm are that it is inexpensive, it requires only the cost of charts which may be homemade, there are no physical side effects, control is in the woman's hands, and it is acceptable to people who consider it their duty to follow religious teachings. Disadvantages include: keeping constant, accurate records of cycles for long periods of time; the need for perseverance and correct interpretation of the chart; the possible need for medical advice and help; and the fear that something might upset a woman's cycle and change the time of ovulation. The continuation rates of rhythm acceptors in the Philippines are unimpressive. A study of 142 women revealed a high pregnancy/failure rate--25% for a 12-month period compared to 0 with oral contraception (OC) and the IUD's 2%. The basal body temperature method helps determine the unsafe period with some accuracy. Its premise is that there are slight but detectable changes in a woman's body temperature during her cycle. These changes herald ovulation. A special thermometer must record temperature changes of 0.1 degree Farenheit. This instrument and the charts are the only expenses involved. The reviewers of the Philippine Population Program noted that since the end of the unsafe period can be indicated only by the temperature, the total period of abstinence becomes long, although the basal body temperature method gives more or less 10 successive days for intercourse. The cervical mucus method, also known as the Billings method, takes into account the cervical secretions during the menstrual cycle. Appearance of this mucus is an indication of fertility. All that is required of a practitioner is to learn to distinguish the different sensations of wetness and dryness. The disadvantage is that the method becomes ineffective in areas where there is cervicitis or infection of the cervix. The symptom thermal method is the basal body temperature method combined with other NFP techniques and is widely used. With this method an accurate record of the 6 immediately preceding menstrual cycles is established. The start of the fertile period is set by substracting 20 days plus 1. The woman watches for symptoms like pelvic heaviness, breast softness, and mucus discharge.     

A look at Asia's changing youth population

This report summarizes findings from a recent East-West Center study on demographic and social changes among young people aged 15-24 years in 17 countries in East, Southeast, and South Asia. Nearly every country in Asia has experienced fertility decline. Decline began in Japan and Singapore during the 1950s, followed by declines in Hong Kong, South Korea, Sri Lanka, the Philippines, Brunei, Taiwan, Malaysia, Thailand, and China during the 1960s. Declines occurred during the 1970s in Indonesia, India, and Myanmar. A "youth bulge" occurred about 20 years later due to declines in infant and child mortality. This bulge varies by country with the timing and magnitude of population growth and subsequent fertility decline. The proportion of youth population rises from 16% to 18% about 20 years after the beginning of fertility decline and declines to a much lower stable level after several decades. The bulge is large in countries with rapid fertility decline, such as China. Governments can minimize the effects of bulge on population growth by raising the legal age at marriage, lengthening the interval between first marriage and first birth, and increasing birth intervals. School enrollments among adolescents are rising. In South Korea, the population aged 15-24 years increased from 3.8 to 8.8 million during 1950-90, a rise of 132% compared to a rise of 653% among school enrollments. It is expected that the number of out-of-school youths will decline from 5.1 to 3.6 million during 1990-2025. Youth employment varies by gender. Policies/programs in family planning and reproductive health will need to address the changing needs of youth population.     

A fresh look at family planning communication

As a step toward development of a national information, education, and communication (IEC) plan, a reassessment of such efforts practiced by the agencies involved was undertaken. A paper published in 1978 by the Research Utilization Unit of the Population Information Division, Population Center Foundation, reviewed materials used and accounts of experience in conceptualizing and communicating family planning messages by 12 private and public sector agencies. The most common concepts employed by the agencies were small family size, responsible parenthood, family welfare, community and national development, birth spacing, delayed marriage, contraceptive use-effectiveness, "manliness," delayed 1st pregnancy, value and rights of children, human behavior and social environment, and population dynamics. Most of the messages were conceptualized and developed through formal and informal consultation with field staff. The need to consider the specific needs of target audiences was considered crucial, and thus decentralization of IEC production was recommended. Such decentralization has been a goal of the Philippine program since 1976, but the effort has been hampered by lack of local training and resources, and of studies to support successful implementation. Mass and mixed media approaches were found to be used by most of the agencies, although a reliance on interpersonal approaches was found to be most prevalent in rural areas. Among recommendations for policy makers were development of a systematized data base for IEC materials, regional capabilities in research and development, and studies of funding and existing resources.     

A close look at the demography of Afghanistan

The first survey designed to allow estimates of the demographic characteristics of Afghanistan's sedentary population was conducted during the period 1972-1974. Our analysis of these data, based on recently developed techniques for handling imcomplete or inaccurate data, suggests that this population lives under conditions that are extreme when judged by modern standards. Marriage is early, especially for females, and universal. Marital fertility conforms to a pattern of natural fertility and total fertility is high. The birth rate is among the highest in the world today, and the expectation of life at birth is among the very lowest. Mortality is lower in urban areas than in rural areas, whereas total fertility is approximately the same in both. Our estimates of fertility and mortality imply stable populations which match closely the observed age distributions for both the rural and urban areas.     

A look at Philippine population in the year 2000

The major subject areas explored by the University of the Population Institute were fertility, mortality, the Filipino family and nuptiality, migration and urbanization, and the structure and growth of the labor force. Data were extracted primarily from the Philippine Censuses (1903-1970) the National Demographic Surveys of 1968 and 1973, and special surveys conducted by the Institute research team. On the basis of the findings, a range of alternative population futures is projected for the year 2000, with their respective policy implications. The estimate of the crude birthrate for 1970 placed the range at between 39.3 and 42.7. The crude birthrate may have declined by 21-23% in the last 70 years, and by almost 13% in 1960-1970 alone. On the national level, fertility rates will continue to decline if the trend of delayed marriages continues. Fertility was found to decrease with the introduction of the positive socioeconomic factors that make some regions more developed than others. The present low levels of mortality have decreased its importance in relation to fertility. Mortality prospects can be improved by several policy actions which are presented here in the order of priority. Current evidence points strongly to an increase in the proportion of single individuals who delay marriage and those not planning to marry at all. The record of internal migration in the Philippines during the 20th century has been dominated by the phenomenon of urbanization, which increased from 13% in 1903 to 33% in 1970. An effort needs to be made to achieve greater rural-urban balance. The country's high population growth has increased the number of job seekers in recent years; the expansion of the regional labor force in the 1960-1970 decade was highly correlated with the growth of regional populations. Fertility, mortality, nuptiality, migration, and urbanization are the major factors determining the growth and structure of Philippine population. Alternative projections for each of these factors were combined in different ways and 3 alternative scenarios for population in the year 2000 are presented.     

A new look at entropy and the life table

The mathematical derivations described in this paper offer a new look at the entropy of the life table, denoted by H. Contrary to previous claims, it is theoretically possible, and has been observed empirically, for life tables to have entropy values greater than unity. A re-expression of H as a weighted average of life expectancy at different ages relative to life expectancy at birth demonstrates clearly the conditions under which reductions in mortality by a fixed amount at all ages can result in even greater gains in life expectancy.     

The Americanization of catholic reproductive ideals

Abstract This paper considers the attitude of Roman Catholics in the United States of America towards family size and suggests that large family ideals are still being put forward by the Church in publications and periodicals. The second part of the paper considers the attitudes of American Roman Catholics towards family size and shows that though there are indications that Roman Catholics regard slightly larger families as ideal than do members of other religions, the difference is not now very great.     

A new look at life and job satisfaction with sunbelt MBA's

Work and extra-work correlates of life and job satisfaction for a sample of MBA graduates (N=1495) are compared to those for a probability sample from the general public using the Rice, Near, Hunt model for analysis. For both groups, the unique relationship between life and job satisfaction is quite weak, however, predictability of job satisfaction is significantly different for MBA's.¹     

A first look at the 21st Century: Census 2000

This paper examines the initial results from Census 2000. It focuses onpopulation growth and distribution, and the five populationcharacteristics from the 100-percent data: age, sex, Hispanic origin, race, and householdrelationship. It explores emerging trends within an historical and global context.     

Age at marriage and marital fertility

In recent years much criticism has been levelled against the use of gross and net reproduction rates as measures of replacement in any period of marked change. In this paper the author considers these criticisms and outlines a method which would yield more information on the problem of replacement and which would also eliminate the influence of varying ages at marriage on fertility when different groups or periods of time are compared. The use of this method is illustrated by an application to the fertility statistics of England and Wales and of different counties.     

A new look at schooling inequalities in Italy and their trends over time

This article examines whether the influence of family background on educational attainment has changed in Italy in the course of the 20th century. For several European countries, recent studies have come to question the widely agreed thesis of persistent schooling inequalities. This work discusses extensively factors that may produce variations of class differentials in academic achievement and in participation rates in the Italian case. The empirical analyses are based on a new dataset and on new modelling techniques that ensure high statistical power to detect trends over time. Yet, the substantive conclusions point to a prevailing stability of class differentials, with a limited equalisation restricted to the agricultural classes in the oldest cohorts.     

Can spouses be trusted? A look at husband/wife proxy reports

This paper examines biases that may occur when models of couple behavior are estimated using one partner’s report of own and of spouse’s desired family size rather than independent reports obtained from both partners. When estimates of random measurement error are incorporated in a model of couple fertility expectations, proxy reports are valid indicators of spouse desires. In particular, there is little evidence that proxy reports are affected by systematic errors arising from projection of own beliefs onto the spouse. For desired family size, random measurement error in both proxy and self reports is of far greater concern than is systematic error.     

If you look at it long enough..

"If you look at it long enough..." is a user's account--40 years of looking at pornography. It attempts to raise issues around gay studies and academic "detachment." It is, to a great extent, autobiographical. But it also is the voice of a character speaking. A persona. It is a tribute to pornography and pornographers.     

A new look at the marriage market and nuptiality rates, 1915–1958

The system of nuptiality probabilities for never married males and females, the “marriage regime,” is viewed as a population transformation, which operates on a population thereby changing the composition. The marriage regime has many properties common to other population transformations, but embodies a constraint such that, in general, the marriage regime cannot be strictly stable over time. The approach is applied to study the “marriage squeeze,” the alteration in marriage patterns that results from an imbalance in the “marriage market” or numbers of never married males and females at the usual marriage ages. Using data on age at first marriage for the 1960 American white population, nuptiality probabilities by single year of age and sex are estimated for the years 1915–58. Annual estimates also are made of the relative number of eligible mates (never married of the usual marriage ages) for never married persons of a given age and sex. No close correspondence is found between annual fluctuations in the marriage market and in the nuptiality probability, possibly because of the crudeness of the estimates. Alternatively, response to the imbalance may take another form such as marriage postponement or a redefinition of eligibility.