U.S. Family Household Momentum and Dynamics: An Extension and Application of the ProFamy Method

The classic headship-rate method for demographic projections of households is not linked to demographic rates, projects a few household types without size, and does not deal with household members other than heads. By comparison, the ProFamy method uses demographic rates as input and projects more detailed household types, sizes, and living arrangements for all members of the population. Tests of projections from 1990 to 2000 using ProFamy and based on observed U.S. demographic rates before 1991 show that discrepancies between our projections and census observations in 2000 are reasonably small, validating the new method. Using data from national surveys and vital statistics, census microfiles, and the ProFamy method, we prepare projections of U.S. households from 2000 to 2050. Medium projections as well as projections based on smaller and larger family scenarios with corresponding combinations of assumptions of marriage/union formation and dissolution, fertility, mortality, and international migration are performed to analyze future trends of U.S. households and their possible higher and lower bounds, as well as enormous racial differentials. To our knowledge, the household projections reported in this article are the first to have found empirical evidence of family household momentum and to have provided informative low and high bounds of various indices of projected future households and living arrangements distributions based on possible changes in demographic parameters.     

Using census data for household projections: an overview of results from the HOMES Project

"This article provides an overview of the household projection model HOMES [a computer model developed to forecast the number and characteristics of households] and presents new household projections for six countries--China, Indonesia, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Thailand, and the Philippines. The household projections are based on recently released population projections from The World Bank and on rules governing living arrangements quantified with the latest available census or demographic survey for each country. Growth in the number of households to the year 2030 is projected along with changes in household membership and the dependency burden."     

中国的男孩偏好和婚姻挤压——初婚与再婚市场的综合分析

中国强烈的男孩偏好和对女性的歧视导致了婚姻市场上严重的男性婚姻挤压。本文使用中国2000年普查数据和所预测的2001~2050年人口数据,结合初婚和再婚市场设计了度量婚姻挤压的指标,测度了2001~2050年中国的婚姻挤压程度,考察了男孩偏好和再婚因素对中国未来婚姻挤压的影响。结果表明未来中国婚姻市场每年有10%~15%男性过剩人口,达到120万人。男孩偏好导致的高出生性别比显著影响未来婚姻市场,而再婚人口对婚姻市场上过剩人口也有显著影响。     

Skewed Sex Ratios at Birth and Future Marriage Squeeze in China and India, 2005–2100

I examine the potential impact of the anticipated future marriage squeeze on nuptiality patterns in China and India during the twenty-first century. I use population projections from 2005 to 2100 based on three different scenarios for the sex ratio at birth (SRB). To counteract the limitations of cross-sectional methods commonly used to assess the severity of marriage squeezes, I use a two-sex cohort-based procedure to simulate marriage patterns over the twenty-first century based on the female dominance model. I also examine two more-flexible marriage functions to illustrate the potential impact of changes in marriage schedules as a response to the marriage squeeze. Longitudinal indicators of marriage squeeze indicate that the number of prospective grooms in both countries will exceed that of prospective brides by more 50% for three decades in the most favorable scenario. Rates of male bachelorhood will not peak before 2050, and the squeeze conditions will be felt several decades thereafter, even among cohorts unaffected by adverse SRB. If the SRB is allowed to return to normalcy by 2020, the proportion of men unmarried at age 50 is expected to rise to 15% in China by 2055 and to 10% in India by 2065. India suffers from the additional impact of a delayed fertility transition on its age structures.     

Understanding population projections

This is a general introduction to how population projections are made and used for the consumers of this information. Population projections are computations of what future trends in fertility, mortality and migration of a population might be given set assumptions. They are not actual forecasts. Projections are used by planners in government and business for a clearer understanding of social changes. How to prepare projections, obtain base data, select starting and future levels of rates, variant series, and the mathematics involved are discussed. Assumptions must be carefully checked and chosen, since reliability of the projections depends on assumptions. There are 3 rules of thumb for reliability: 1) the shorter the projection period, the more reliable the projection; 2) the larger the geographic area being projected the more reliable the projection; 3) the lower the current fertility and the higher the current life expectancy, the lower the projection's margin of error. Major sources of data and projections on world, regional, national, subnational, and local areas and difficulties with data for developing countries are discussed. Available microcomputer programs for IBM PC compatible machines are listed and described briefly.     

Demography of brideprice and dowry: Causes and consequences of the Indian marriage squeeze

The paper investigates whether past declines in mortality could have created a huge deficit of eligible men in the marriage market, and whether the ensuing competition for mates could be responsible for the coercive character the dowry system of marriage has assumed in India. New indices have been developed to measure the trends in bridegroom availability that aid in the inquiry into the demographic origins of marriage squeeze. It is contended that the marriage squeeze against women was particularly intense in India because mortality decline, in addition to age structural changes, drastically reduced the number of widowers in the population who once accounted for about one-fifth of the annual supply of bridegrooms. Our projections indicate that, as a result of recent declines in fertility, the marriage squeeze against females will ease substantially by the end of the first decade of the twenty-first century, and that marriages of men will begin to be delayed more than those of women.     

Surplus Chinese Men: Demographic Determinants of the Sex Ratio at Marriageable Ages in China

We explore the demographic factors contributing to China's unbalanced sex ratio at marriagable ages. We develop a stable population model of the sex ratio at marriagable ages, and compare a series of population projections with alternative underlying assumptions about the key demographic inputs. The stable population model demonstrates that several demographic factors interact to influence the sex ratio at marriagable ages, including the sex ratio at birth, population growth, the age gap of marriage partners, and the sex ratio of survival from birth to marriageable age. The population projections further demonstrate that policies that seek to reduce the sex ratio at birth and the age gap at marriage and, to a lesser extent, increase fertility would be most effective at alleviating the problem. But no demographic changes are likely to occur quickly enough to balance the sex ratio at marriagable ages in the near future.     

Shifts in household demographics herald economic changes for Thailand

In Thailand, dramatic changes in households and the health status of the population have led to important implications for the economic sector. These changes affect health, education, housing, employment and transportation. A new book on the economic impact of demographic change by Andrew Mason and Burnham O. Campbell is referred to as a full discussion of the issues. National planning and projections must include household characteristics as well as numerical projections. The analysis of Mason and Campbell is summarized in this article. Important changes are occurring in the size, rate of growth, and age structure of Thailand's population. Life expectancy has risen to 63 years for men and 68 years for women. Fertility has fallen to 2 children/woman. Population growth was 1.9% in 1990. In 1990, there were only 1 in 3 under the age of 15, and these numbers are expected to shrink to 1 in 4 by the year 2000. 60% of the population is of working age; this is expected to increase to 65% by the year 2000. The 60 years old population is expected to be 7.5% of the total in the year 2000. The average household has 1.6 children. 96% of households live with a relative. The expectation is that household size will continue to decrease and the number of households will continue to grow. The number of elderly heads of households is expected to rise to 11% by 2010. Households will become "adultified." The policy implications for education are that the school age population will gradually decreases but the number enrolled will increase. Primary school enrollment will stabilize and then decline after 1995. Secondary school enrollment will increase and level off in 2005. Total enrollment will increase from 10.5 million in 1990 to 11.4 million in 2000 and decline to 10.7 in 2015. These changes will allow for improvements in the quality of education and expand educational attainment. In health care, the demand for maternal and child health services will decline; changes will occur in the kinds of medical care needed.     

The importance of demographic analyses in state- and local-level policy evaluations: A case study analysis of property taxes in Texas,USA

The reluctance of policy-makers to incorporate detailed demographic analyses in policy analyses often means that population composition is ignored in state and local policy evaluations. This article uses standard demographic projection, standardization and rate decomposition techniques to examine the implications of changing population composition for the property tax revenue base of Texas. The authors find that if current socioeconomic differentials persist into the future, projected compositional changes in the household population of Texas will significantly impact property tax revenues. Thus revenue projections based on aggregate growth and current average property value would seriously overestimate future property tax revenues in Texas because changes in the composition of the population lead to disproportionate growth in households likely to live in lower valued housing unite. The results indicate that the continuing focus of state and local policy-makers on changes in population size alone may be ill-advised and demonstrate the increasing importance of local- and state-level demographic analysis in a period of increasing Federal devolution of service provision.     

Household and Living Arrangement Projections at the Subnational Level: An Extended Cohort-Component Approach

This article presents the core methodological ideas and empirical assessments of an extended cohort-component approach (known as the “ProFamy model”), and applications to simultaneously project household composition, living arrangements, and population sizes–gender structures at the subnational level in the United States. Comparisons of projections from 1990 to 2000 using this approach with census counts in 2000 for each of the 50 states and Washington, DC show that 68.0 %, 17.0 %, 11.2 %, and 3.8 % of the absolute percentage errors are <3.0 %, 3.0 % to 4.99 %, 5.0 % to 9.99 %, and ≥10.0 %, respectively. Another analysis compares average forecast errors between the extended cohort-component approach and the still widely used classic headship-rate method, by projecting number-of-bedrooms–specific housing demands from 1990 to 2000 and then comparing those projections with census counts in 2000 for each of the 50 states and Washington, DC. The results demonstrate that, compared with the extended cohort-component approach, the headship-rate method produces substantially more serious forecast errors because it cannot project households by size while the extended cohort-component approach projects detailed household sizes. We also present illustrative household and living arrangement projections for the five decades from 2000 to 2050, with medium-, small-, and large-family scenarios for each of the 50 states; Washington, DC; six counties of southern California; and the Minneapolis–St. Paul metropolitan area. Among many interesting numerical outcomes of household and living arrangement projections with medium, low, and high bounds, the aging of American households over the next few decades across all states/areas is particularly striking. Finally, the limitations of the present study and potential future lines of research are discussed.     

Reforming electricity rates: Benefits to low-income households

The electricity rate reforms proposed in the Public Utility Regulatory Policies Act reflect the quest for an energy policy which encourages conservation, efficiency, and equity. Focusing on equity concerns, this research examines the relative effectiveness of lifeline and time-of-day rates in easing the burden of rising household energy prices among the low-income population. Lifeline rates establish a minimum number of kilowatt hours (kWh) required for basic necessities and a special low rate for these kWh. Time-of-day rates provide lower electricity prices to those households using electricity during off-peak generating hours. The data indicate that lifeline rates would assist low-income households in general, with the greatest benefits going to poor households with small numbers of members and older heads of household. Time-of-day rates would immediately benefit smaller households and those with older household heads. Some lifestyle changes, in the form of appliance use patterns, would be required among the low-income population if they are to benefit from time-of-day rates.This research was supported by a Department of Energy grant from the Oklahoma Corporation Commission (DE-FG-01-79 RG 10220) to the National Energy Law and Policy Institute at the University of Tulsa.     

中国婚姻挤压研究的回顾与评述

通过对检索文献的分析,从婚姻挤压的现状、原因、测度和影响等几个方面对我国学者就婚姻挤压研究取得的成果进行了综述,回顾了主要的研究成果,指出了研究的不足之处,并对未来研究做出展望,笔者最后建议从人口安全与和谐社会这两个角度研究婚姻挤压问题。     

A multi-dimensional model for projecting family households--with an illustrative numerical application

"This paper develops a multi-dimensional model for projecting households and population. The model is constructed to ensure consistency between the demographic events occurring to males and females as well as to parents and children. The model permits projection of characteristics of households, their members, and population structure, using data that are usually available from conventional sources. Unlike the traditional headship-rate method, our model can closely link the projected households with demographic rates. The model includes both nuclear and three-generation households, so that it can be used for countries where nuclear households are dominant and for countries where nuclear and three-generation households are both important. The illustrative application to China, although brief, provides some policy-relevant information about future trends of Chinese household size, structure, and the age and sex distribution of the population, with a focus on the elderly."     

Climate change and internal migration intentions in the forest-savannah transition zone of Ghana

Migration is at the centre of demographic research on the population–environment nexus. Increasing concerns about the impacts of environmental events on human population are fuelling interest on the relationship between migration and environmental change. Using data from the Climate Change Collective Learning and Observatory Network Ghana project, we employ binary logistic regression to examine migration intentions of households in response to major community stressors including climate-related ones. The results indicate that the type of community stressor that affects households most does not differentiate migration intentions in Ghana’s forest-savannah transition zone: Even though the majority of the respondents mentioned climate-related events as the stressor that affects them the most, such events do not appear to directly explain migration intentions. However, socio-demographic factors such as age, household size and current migration status are significant predictors of migration intentions, with younger household heads, heads of migrant households and heads of smaller households being relatively more likely to have migration intentions than other household heads. We conclude that migration drivers are multifaceted and deserve further research because even in areas with perceived environmental stress, climate-related events may not be the primary motivation for migration intentions.     

Household structure and housing needs

This paper is mainly derived from the material presented in the preceding article by S. P. Brown. Indeed, while the previous analysis is of considerable intrinsic interest, the hypothetical population was constructed and its family distribution was shown for the purpose of providing a basis for estimates of housing needs. For several reasons it appeared to be essential to have such a basis. First, any housing programme has to take the future, as well as the present, distribution of households by type and size into account. Secondly, such a programme has to be designed so as not to prevent household formation—there should be dwellings for all potential households, so that involuntary doubling-up need not occur. Thirdly, most residential areas should have dwellings for an eventually stable population, that is, for one which has variety of age groups and of household types, and also fair stability of housing demand. Estimates of the distribution of potential ‘households’ could be derived from the ‘family’ distribution of the hypothetical population which reflects current demographic trends. Thus although this population is a ‘hypothetical’ one, it provides a realistic premise for considering housing needs, and because it is a ‘stationary’ one, it provides an especially suitable premise. Moreover, since the demographic characteristics of its ‘families’ and therefore of its potential households were established in far greater detail than has ever been the case in sample surveys of existing households, it was possible to classify households in the terms which appear to be most appropriate for the first draft of a housing programme, irrespective of social and economic variations in demand.

The first stage in following up Mr Brown's analysis was the conversion of ‘families’ into ‘households’. Two examples of the possible household distribution of the hypothetical population are presented. Example A, which gives a realistic, but not extreme, picture of the conversion of families into households, is used for the subsequent detailed analysis, while broader figures for distribution B are also included.

In the second stage the various types of household had to be distinguished. For estimating housing needs, two interrelated criteria of household classification are relevant—first, the stage in the life of a household, especially appropriate in considering space requirements; secondly, the age composition of households, which largely determines the type of dwelling needed.

The detailed distribution of households by size and type, based on this classification, is further translated into a distribution of dwellings by type and size. For this purpose, additional assumptions about the number of rooms and the type of dwelling needed by households of various types are introduced and applied to the hypothetical population, both to household distributions A and B. These assumptions are not based on accepted standards, nor do they suggest standards. They are merely used for the purpose of illustrating a possible method of estimating housing needs on the basis of a detailed picture of household structure. They are further designed to represent one possible compromise between economy in dwelling distribution, on the one hand, and flexibility of space for individual households, on the other.

In the final sections of the paper, the implications of the dwelling distributions here presented are discussed in relation to household mobility, and also with reference to the necessity for reconciling short-term and long-term housing needs in any housing programme.     

Population Projections and Demographic Knowledge in France and Great Britain in the Postwar Period

This study examines how official national population projections—a key mechanism for the production and dissemination of demographic knowledge—contributed to differing interpretations of population and fertility trends in France and Great Britain in the decades following World War II, despite these countries' similar fertility rates during most of this period. Projections presented different visions of the demographic future in the two countries. In France, publication of multiple variants emphasized future contingency, with low variants illustrating future population decline due to prolonged below‐replacement fertility. In Britain, publication of a single variant, assuming near‐replacement‐level fertility rates, projected moderate growth. National population projections thus created divergent representations of the two countries' demographic futures: an ever‐present threat of population decline in France, and a reassuring image of stability in Britain. Two principal mechanisms that contributed to cross‐national differences in population projections—national demographic history and institutional configurations—are discussed.     

Aids and population growth in sub-Saharan Africa: Assessing the sensitivity of projections

Despite different models to project the course of the AIDS pandemic and a scarcity of data to provide standard input parameters for those models, a limited consensus emerges from distinct sets of population projections. In sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates are projected to remain positive in spite of the pandemic over the next few decades. To investigate this conclusion, alternative projections of an HIV/AIDS epidemic and its related mortality are first produced from different sets of input parameters and assumptions. Their incorporation into the population projections of a fast-growing country illustrates the robustness of projected population growth rates under very different scenarios of the future epidemic but with the common assumption that it will not affect the mortality of the uninfected population, fertility nor migration. This paper then shows that the projected growth rates are much less robust when interactions between the epidemic and the demographic regime are allowed and identifies several potential mechanisms for such interactions. In particular, it suggests that improving our confidence in the medium-term projections of the demographic impact of AIDS in the region requires less a refinement of the projections of the epidemic than a better understanding of its impact on the timing of the postulated fertility decline.     

Projections of households and household populations by household size propensities

This paper describes a method for constructing projections of numbers of households of various types and the numbers of people in that structure. The method uses the concept ofhousehold size propensity, that is the probability that a person of given age and sex resides in a household of sizea, c, wherea is the number of adults per household andc is number of children per household. Using data from the 1981 and 1986 Censuses and population projections to the year 2011, the method produces projections of Australian households and household populations by size of household for five-year intervals from 1991 to 2011. The research reported in this paper arose out of the University of Melbourne’s research program to study the structure, economics and technology of households. This research began in 1986 at the Centre for Applied Research on the Future in the Department of Architecture and Building and from 1991 has been continued by the Households Research Unit in the Department of Economics. Reports of this work are contained in the collection of essaysHouseholds Work edited by Ironmonger (1989) and in discussion papers issued by the Centre for Applied Research on the Future by Ironmonger (1987), Jennings (1989) Sonius (1989) and Ironmonger and Richardson (1991). The authors wish to thank Roger Jones of the Social Sciences Data Archive for running some cross tabulations on the 1981 Census one per cent sample tape, Vic Jennings of the Households Research Unit for his valuable contributions in a number of discussions, and the referees to thisJournal for numerous helpful suggestions.     

Options for Fertility Policy Transition in China

This article compares five currently debated scenarios for fertility policy transition in China, in terms of their implications for future population growth and population aging, the proportions of elderly living alone, labor force trends, pension deficits, economic costs, the marriage squeeze, and other socioeconomic outcomes. Based on these comparative analyses, the author concludes that China needs to begin a gradual modification of its fertility policy as soon as possible. He proposes a three‐stage “soft‐landing” strategy for fertility policy transition: (1) a 7‐year initial smooth transition period; (2) from approximately 2014‐15 to 2032‐35 a universal two‐child policy combined with late childbearing in both rural and urban areas; (3) after 2032‐35 all Chinese citizens would be free to choose family size and fertility timing. This strategy will enable China to have much more favorable demographic conditions and socioeconomic outcomes, as compared to keeping the current policy unchanged.     

中德婚姻市场供需情况的比较研究

本文从概念、形成机制、度量方法、后果及其解决途径等方面探讨了婚姻挤压问题 ,考虑到婚姻挤压对婚姻寿命、初婚人数及其性别差异的影响而创立了婚姻寿命指数与初婚挤压指数两指标 ,提出了婚姻市场类型的划分标准。通过对中德两国婚姻市场的历史与现状的考察 ,揭示了中德两国婚姻挤压产生的原因、类型、差异和未来的变化趋势 ,并对如何化解中国未来婚姻市场的供求矛盾提出了对策与建议