Sample registration in gujarat,india

Since October, 1965, births and deaths in rural Gujarat State, India, have been recorded under two independent systems in a random sample of units. First, a part-time local "registrar" is appointed in each sample unit (village or segment thereof) who: prepares a house list; conducts a baseline survey showing the individuals in each household; and maintains a list of the vital events reported by informants whom he contacts fortnightly. Second, a staff member at the rural health centre is assigned part-time supervisory and survey duties: to check the initial listings of the registrar; thereafter, to inspect the registrar's records at least quarterly; and to conduct a household survey each six months, updating the household register and recording births and deaths independently. The registrar's list is sent to the district office immediately before the survey, where it is matched with the survey list forwarded by the local supervisor. A list of unmatched events is returned to the supervisor who with the registrar revisits households to resolve the discrepancies. Under-registration is estimated to be 13 to 20 percent by the registrar method, 8 to 17 percent by the survey method. The birth rate is estimated to be about 44 and the death rate about 19.     

Annual mortality rates and excess deaths of children under five in Iraq, 1991-98

Data from two parallel household surveys conducted in Iraq by UNICEF in 1999 show that under-5 mortality declined steadily from 1974 to 1990, reaching about 63 per 1,000 live births in the period 1986-90. It then rose dramatically to 118 per 1,000 in 1991, the year of the Gulf War. The number of 'excess' under-5 deaths (i.e., the number in excess of the number predicted from past trends) in Iraq between 1991 and 1998 was calculated assuming that, instead of the rates measured by the 1999 survey for this period, either (a) average mortality rates for the period 1986-90 had been maintained, or (b) mortality had continued to decline at the rate observed between 1974 and 1990. According to these calculations, the estimated number of excess deaths resulting from the Gulf War and its aftermath up to 1998 was between 400,000 (assumption a) and 500,000 (assumption b).     

Sample registration in India

Abstract The Sample Registration Project in India is designed to obtain current estimates of birth and death rates for the whole country. It is being implemented quite rapidly. Rural and urban areas in all states and Union Territories in India will be covered before the close of 1969. Bigger states have 150 sample units in rural areas and 60 to 100 units in urban areas. Essential elements of the project for each unit are: (1) continuous enumeration of births and deaths in respect of usual resident population by a paid part-time local enumerator; (2) a six-month household survey to detect births and deaths which occurred to the usual resident population during the previous six months; and (3) manual matching of all event from enumeration and surveys and field re-check of unmatched events to obtain the 'best' count of real number of events. The results of a full-scale sample in four states and pilot sample in ten states indicate that the crude birth and death rates are around 40 and 18 per 1,000, respectively, for India's rural population. Most of the problems of implementation are operational or administrative rather than statistical. The main problem in the whole project is to maintain control of field operations well enough at each stage to ensure that prescribed instructions and methodology are being followed; particularly in the six-month survey. Experience in India indicates that sample registration techniques are capable of providing reliable birth and death rates in similar conditions in developing countries. However, there are still a number of methodological problems which must be tested as the sample registration evolves.     

Some results from asian population growth studies

Abstract Coverage estimates of births and deaths derived from the matching experience of a relatively comprehensive group of studies conducted in Asia and employing dual collection systems are resented and analysed. Major conclusions based on these Asian studies include: (1) coverage of live births has generally been more complete than that for deaths; (2) nevertheless, unadjusted rates of natural increase tend to be underestimates; (3) there is great variability within each type of collection system in the coverage rates observed; and (4) one-time household surveys, as a group, seem to be particularly subject to underreporting of vital events.     

Estimates of coverage of the population by sex,race, and age in the 1970 census

Several estimates of total net underenumeration and of net census errors by sex, race (white, Negro-and-other-races, Negro), and age (five-year groups) in the 1960 and 1970 Censuses, for the total population of the United States, derived by the methods of demographic analysis, are presented. The different data, procedures, and assumptions employed in developing the various estimates are described briefly, and the findings are then discussed in terms of a”preferred” set of estimates. The preferred set of estimates of corrected population for 1970 combines estimates for persons under age 35 based directly on birth, death, and migration statistics, estimates for females aged 35 to 64 based on the Coale-Zelnik estimates (white) for 1950 or the Coale-Rives estimates (Negro) for 1960, estimates for males aged 35 to 64 based on the use of expected sex ratios, and estimates for the population 65 and over based on”Medicare” enrollments and expected sex ratios. These estimates indicate an overall net underenumeration of 5.3 million persons or 2.5 percent in 1970, as compared with 5.1 million or 2.7 percent in 1960, and a net underenumeration of 1.9 percent for whites and of 7.7 percent for Negroes in 1970, as compared with 2.0 percent and 8.0 percent, respectively, in 1960. As in 1960, undercoverage in 1970 was greatest for Negro males (9.9 percent); net error rates exceeded 12 percent in each age group 20 to 49 and reached 17 to 19 percent at ages 25 to 44. All sex-race groups showed marked increases between 1960 and 1970 for children under ten and marked declines at ages ten to 24. Equally reliable estimates of population coverage cannot be prepared for states and smaller geographic units or for the population of Spanish ancestry.     

Estimation Of The Birth Rate For The Congo Through Nonconventional Techniques

This paper attempts to produce a set of alternative estimates of birth rates for the Congo and for its main regions through nonconventional techniques. The main body of data used for this purpose is supplied by the demographic survey undertaken during 1955-57. Two types of information on fertility are produced by this survey: (1) births to women by age during the 12 months preceding the survey and (2) children-ever-born to women by age. The available data, while reliable in certain respects, are deficient in others. Thus, the reports on children born during the year preceding the survey are acceptably accurate for the children who have survived but are insufficient for the children who have died.The task was to make the best possible use of various reliable pieces of information directly or indirectly related to fertility, in order to produce some reasonably acceptable estimate of birth rate. One procedure consisted of correcting the reported birth rate for the omission of infant deaths; another procedure involved the adjustment of the reported birth rate with reference to the mean parity of women. In addition to these, an estimate of birth rate was derived by means of stable population technique from the proportion of children under 5 years of age.Three sets of estimates of birth rate, then, have been produced. They yielded a high agreement for the country as a whole, as well as for the provincial and district levels. These estimates were then compared with the proportion of childless women and the proportion of children-the latter having been derived from the records of "continuous registration of inhabitants," a source of information which is completely independent of the demographic survey of 1955-57. Again, a reasonable agreement has been found among all these estimates.Statistical evidence examined in this paper supports a birth rate of about 45 per 1,000 for the Congo. The analysis reveals a high regional variation in birth rate: from 20 per 1,000 (Bas Uele) to 60 per 1,000 (Kivu). This variation is consistent with the variation in sterility level as evidenced by the proportion of women never having had a live birth. The proportion of childlessness varies from 5 percent (Kivu) to about 40 percent (Bas Uele) for women past child-bearing age.     

A study on the effectiveness of sterilizations in reducing the birth rate

This study analyzed 1,081 women in Kerala State (India) who were either sterilized or were the wives of sterilized men, and by examining the fertility among a comparable group of 1,000 other women, estimated the number of prevented future births per 1,000 women in the sterilized group. The results of this estimation were then applied to project what the entire savings in births might be over a 3D-year period in the entire Kerala population if each year there were one, three, or five sterilizations performed per 1,000 of total population. The results failed to confirm the hope that the crude birth rate would be decreased by 12 per 1,000 in a decade merely by sterilization of five per 1,000 of the population per annum. The study also discusses various measures of reduction in the crude birth rate. By a reasonable measure, the reduction in the crude birth rate for Kerala from such a sterilization program is estimated as seven points after a decade or nine points after three decades, reflecting decreases of 21 and 36 per cent, respectively, in the number of births.     

Matching experimentation in a dual record system for births and deaths in Morocco

Summary In an effort to improve the quality and completeness of birth and death reporting in Morocco, a sample of 84,000 persons was established, for whom birth and death data were collected by two methods. Each household was contacted once a month by interviewers in a registration method; independently, each household was interviewed once every six months by a survey team. Interviewing continued from April 1972 to July 1973. Results of these two methods were then compared through matching the vital events recorded by the two sources. First a 'true match status' was established by teams of 'experts', supplemented by field verification of uncertain cases. Of the 15 variables on the vital event reporting forms, eight were studied to establish the optimal tolerance limits for deciding whether any two completed recording forms (one from each method) were recording a single birth (or death) or two different ones. Next, those characteristics were selected which introduced the fewest matching errors; for births, this was the dwelling unit number, the name of the mother, and the name of the baby; for deaths, the dwelling unit number, the name of the person, and the name of the head of household. Aside from its manifest function, the matching operation also improved the fieldwork and helped to clean the data.     

Factors affecting reliability in age estimation in rural West Africa: A statistical analysis

Ages of the same individual in two rounds of a rural survey in Sierra Leone spaced at intervals of six to ten months, were recorded by similar census-type methods, but using different enumerators. Substantial age differences were noted between the two surveys. Simple linear regression analysis was used to identify factors related to the interviewer, the interviewee and the method of interviewing that contributed to these age differences. It was concluded that age errors will be reduced by interviewing individuals directly rather than through a third party (usually the household head), more careful recruitment and training of enumerators and by the gradual spread of education and age awareness in rural areas.     

Purposive concealment of death in household surveys in Misamis Oriental Province

Summary The randomized response technique was used in a household survey of approximately 2,000 rural and 2,000 urban households in Misamis Oriental Province in the southern Philippines in order to determine the extent of purposive concealment of death. The estimated number of deaths deliberately not revealed to the interviewers was 50 per cent or higher. Adjusted crude death rates of 11.5 and 13.4 per 1,000 population were computed for urban and rural areas, respectively, by adding estimated concealed deaths to deaths reported to the interviewers. Application of stable population techniques and of model life tables suitable to the Philippine setting, while not permitting definite conclusions, provided reasons for believing that these adjusted death rates are close to the true mortality situation in the study areas. Randomized response data further indicate that approximately 75 per cent of urban deaths and 47 per cent of rural deaths of the population studied were not registered with municipal authorities. The authors postulate that failure to register deaths with municipal authorities, together with fear of legal involvement if this failure becomes known outside the immediate neighbourhood, is a major reason for the purposive concealment of death in household surveys.     

Levels and patterns of infant and child mortality in ghana

This paper attempts to measure infant and child mortality levels and also to determine their structure by utilizing the results of the 1968–1969 National Demographic Sample Survey which was conducted under the directorship of the author. Among the major problems encountered in the exercise are the adjustment of the current raw mortality data and the estimation of infant and child mortality from independent source material. The estimated infant mortality rates range from 56 per 1,000 live births in the Accra Capital District to 192 in the Upper Region during the late 1960’s. The urban rate is lower than the rural rate, 98 as against 161 per 1,000 live births. A large proportion of the deaths among children aged 0–4 occur in the second year of life, and deaths in this age group account for the bulk of the deaths within the age group 1–4 years.     

Household Trajectories in Rural Ethiopia: What Can a Mixed Method Approach Tell Us About the Impact of Poverty on Children?

The paper explores the dynamics of child and household poverty in rural Ethiopia using three rounds of household survey and qualitative data collected by Young Lives, a longitudinal study of child poverty. It uses a mixed-method taxonomy of poverty to classify children and their households into four groups, analyse their movements in and out of poverty, and explore the underlying factors. The final section of the paper uses qualitative case studies to explore child welfare dynamics in more detail, looking at the interplay between the progress or decline of households and that of children within those households. It concludes that while the percentage of poor households within this sample reduced from 50 to 20 % between rounds 1 and 3 (2002–2009), these changes were not always beneficial to children and did not reach nearly 1 in 10 households classified as ultra-poor. A deepened understanding of those changes, employing both quantitative and qualitative methods, is deemed crucial in post-2015 millennium development goal discussions.     

Neo-natal and post-neo-natal mortality in a rural area of Bangladesh

Abstract An analysis of neo-natal and post-neo-natal mortality in 132 villages (population of 117,000) of Matlab thana indicates the following: (i) Neo-natal deaths accounted for 60% of the infant mortality rate of 125. This proportion was unexpectedly high since previous research had maintained that in countries with infant mortality rates over 100, neo-natal deaths account for less than one-third of all infant deaths. Since the present findings on the proportions of neo-natal deaths correspond exactly with results from an earlier registration system in East Pakistan, it is suggested that the long-accepted proposition, 'less developed' areas are characterized by lower proportions of neo-natal deaths than 'more developed' areas, be re-examined. (2) The infant death rate accounts for 36% of all deaths in the population. If the infant death rate were reduced by half the result would be a decrease in the current crude death rate from 16 to 13. Although this reduction would appear to be small, in the context of a current high growth rate of 3% (from 1966-67 to 1968-69) it exerts a sizeable impact. For example, it would take a reduction of eight points in the crude birth rate of 46 just to achieve a growth rate 2·5% under these circumstances. Obviously, continued efforts in death control without an effective birth control programme will perpetuate high rates of growth. (3) Neo-natal and post-neo-natal mortality exhibited the -expected 'U' shaped pattern with parity, and generally varied as expected with age and family size, except in the oldest age group and largest family size where the risk was smaller than in the preceding groups. An explanation for these findings is presented, based on the effect that births to high-parity women with low child mortality have upon the total neo-natal and post-neo-natal mortality rates. It was found that these births exhibit a much lower mortality risk than births to women of comparable parities and higher child mortality, and that their numbers account for the lower risk to the births in the oldest age group and largest family size. It was concluded that women with a combination of high parity and low child mortality most probably represent a group with superior socio-economic and or health conditions which contribute to the lower risk of neo-natal and post-neo-natal death.     

Reply to Wachter

Although twins constitute only about 2.4 per cent of total births in less developed countries, they account for about 12 per cent of neonatal deaths and about nine per cent of infant deaths. Twin mortality in less developed countries has almost never been analysed systematically. We examine survival among twins as contrasted with that among singleton births by using 2692 twin observations pooled from 26 standardized Demographic and Health Surveys. Weakened by gestational and other biological complications, twins seem to be more vulnerable to detrimental demographic and household socio-economic influences than singletons. Twinning tends to amplify, or at least retain, whatever group differences exist among singleton births.     

A note on some vital statistics of a primitive peasant community in Sierra Leone

In the course of some work in which a community of 1400 primitive Sierra Leone peasants were being re-examined at two-monthly intervals over a period of a year opportunity was taken to record births, deaths and pregnancies. A birth-rate of 32·9 (P.E. ± 3·27), and a death-rate of 38·4 (P.E. ± 3·52) per thousand per annum were obtained. The infant mortality rate was found to be 417 (P.E. · 48) per thousand live births, and the ratio of miscarriages and stillbirths to live births to be 22·9: 100. Since the community was small the figures are subject to a high statistical error, but they are offered because the data are believed to be accurate, and accurate vital statistics of primitive West African communities are practically non-existent.

The most interesting features in regard to deaths were that deaths in children aged 3 years or under accounted for almost half the total deaths at all ages, and that of these deaths in young children 38·5 % were attributed to an acute febrile illness.     

Incomplete reporting of men’s fertility in the united states and britain: A research note

We evaluate men's retrospective fertility histories from the British Household Panel Survey and the U.S. Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID). Further, we analyze the PSID men's panel-updated fertility histories for their possible superiority over retrospective collection. One third to one half of men's nonmarital births and births within previous marriages are missed in estimates from retrospective histories. Differential survey underrepresentation of previously married men compared with previously married women accounts for a substantial proportion of the deficits in previous-marriage fertility. More recent retrospective histories and panel-updated fertility histories improve reporting completeness, primarily by reducing the proportion of marital births from unions that are no longer intact at the survey date.     

New african American life tables from 1935–1940 to 1985–1990*

New life tables for African Americans are presented from 1935 through 1990. They are based on a historical series of vital statistics data on deaths that have been corrected for age misreporting, on reconstructed population counts that have been adjusted for census underenumeration, and on births that have been corrected for underregistration. The new life tables show rapid mortality declines for both African American males and females from 1935 to 1950, and relatively steady reductions thereafter for females. The smaller declines in male mortality in young adulthood and middle age since the 1950s have led to exceptionally high ratios of male to female mortality at these ages. Corrections for census undercounts lead to higher values of life expectancy than in official life tables, but to less improvement over time. Official estimates of life expectancy at age 65 appear to be about 10% too high around 1940 but only about 1.5% too high in the late 1980s.     

Organization and implementation of China's national sampling survey on fertility and birth control

The Planning and Statistical Department of the State Family Planning Commission of China in July 1988 implemented a fertility and birth control survey in China on 2.16 million married women ages 15-57 using stratified, systematic, clustered, and non-proportionate sampling. 3 questionnaires were used: household, married women, and sample unit covering basic status, family planning status, general characteristics of pregnancy and contraception, population flow, deaths since 1981, and socioeconomic status. The authors suggest several international cooperative research projects including: design of fertility and contraception survey; Chinese population growth; Chinese population dynamics; dynamics of marital and family status; fertility; contraception and birth control; mortality; migration; status of the nationalities of China; population development; regional fertility status; and others. Data from the survey will be available in June 1989.     

High foetal mortality and birth intervals

Abstract Studies of birth intervals have generally separated the process into: (1) the period of infertility following a pregnancy termination; (2) the length ofthe interval from the end of the infertile period to the next conception (which reflects the probability of conception), and (3) the average duration of pregnancy for both live births and foetal deaths.(1) Empirically derived intervals between successive live births average from 19 to 30 lunar months(2) (Table 1), depending upon the population studied and the birth order.(3) Estimates of conception rates using birth intervals data require some estimate of the extent to which foetal wastage increases the birth interval.